How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

From what I was able to gather from Twitter most of the captured russians (mostly conscripts?) did not even know where they were geographically.

I think, all their "I didn't know that would be a war", "I didn't want to war" is just instructions of command of what to say if you are captured. During months before this on many accounts in social networks were absolutely different moods "Ukies, prepare themeseves ! We are coming soon!" 

[Kraft]

While I would like to believe it I doubt the amount of war defying conscripts outnumbers the pro war and scared ones. 

[TheVulture]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think, all their "I didn't know that would be a war", "I didn't want to war" is just instructions of command of what to say if you are captured. During months before this on many accounts in social networks were absolutely different moods "Ukies, prepare themeseves ! We are coming soon!" 

Yeah. If *I* was a captured Russian soldier I'd be saying the same in the hope of getting better treatment. Nothing to lose,  and it might just help you.

So i don't think that those statements are worth very much. 

[DesertFox]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think, all their "I didn't know that would be a war", "I didn't want to war" is just instructions of command of what to say if you are captured. During months before this on many accounts in social networks were absolutely different moods "Ukies, prepare themeseves ! We are coming soon!" 

Yes, could very well be the case. We hopefully will learn once time has come.

[keas66]

Germany announced a doubling of their Defense Budget - one time  increase at this stage - but who knows . Putin seems to be working for the strengthening of  the EU and NATO . Good on him !

[TheVulture]

BREAKINGEU to begin providing arms to Ukraine

The European Union has announced that it intends to begin shipping arms to Ukraine, the first time in its history it has taken such a step.

Speaking at a press conference this afternoon, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the move marked a "watershed moment".

She also announced a raft of new sanctions targeting Russia and Belarus, and a ban on Russia using European airspace.

More details to follow shortly.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60542877

[BeondTheGrave]

25 minutes ago, womble said:

Somebody posted a report of a rather large mutiny of regular troops, waaay upthread...

The rumor is 5,000 contract (explained as voluntary enlisted vs. conscripts) soldiers in the Belgorod region mutinied. No confirmations or follow-ups I've seen. But I have also seen mixed reports that suggest that, after having gotten their nose bloodied, the Chechens are falling back to the Ukrainian border and are out. Take it with a grain of salt because I've heard more Chechen units are moving forward to attack in the Donbas. 

Personally I dont think well have peace today. I think both Europe and Ukraine will hold off another day to watch the Russian economic meltdown Monday morning. That, more than any likely battlefield development, will be what unsticks diplomacy. Indicators are its going to be bad. 

Also, this cant be bad right? Right? 

Edited February 27, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Kraft]

10 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Germany announced a doubling of their Defense Budget - one time  increase at this stage - but who knows . Putin seems to be working for the strengthening of  the EU and NATO . Good on him !

It is worth mentioning that this one time spending of 100bn (roughly 2x of normal spending) will be used for RnD and equipment procurement and represents 10 years of investments, as the normal RnD budget is slightly above 10bn.

With long term increase to >2% spending, the bundeswehr will finally be able to escape its famined torture

Edited February 27, 2022 by Kraft

[keas66]

Based on the activity in the South / East of the Dneiper -  Could Putin's get out of jail card  from this mess be establishing a permanent land bridge to the Crimea ?  - He needs to take and hold the Cities on the Coast of the Sea of Azov . 

[Splinty]

At this point I think the best thing for everybody would be if the Oligarchs took Putin out themselves.

[BeondTheGrave]

8 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Germany announced a doubling of their Defense Budget - one time  increase at this stage - but who knows . Putin seems to be working for the strengthening of  the EU and NATO . Good on him !

I dont think there is a single country more dedicated to European integration than Russia. It seems like everything they have done over the last seventy years has been in the pursuit of tying all of Europe together into a single coherent block, just its against Russia not for it 

I wonder if Russia will ever realize what Germany did: Its easier to just book a vacation to French Alsace than it is to make Paris German. 

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think, all their "I didn't know that would be a war", "I didn't want to war" is just instructions of command of what to say if you are captured. During months before this on many accounts in social networks were absolutely different moods "Ukies, prepare themeseves ! We are coming soon!" 

There is a big difference between peacetime bravado and wartime reality.  It is easy to say "I'm tough" when nobody is shooting at you.  However, I agree that it is likely they were "coached" to say certain things if captured.  Though issuing such instructions doesn't help build morale

We had a discussion about this in a different thread.  It is not uncommon for military personnel to not be told where they are going until they get there.  Russian OPSEC at the lowest level is horrible, so it makes sense to not tell them anything more than they need to know.

My guess is most Russian soldiers, especially conscripts, thought everything before now was just to scare the Ukrainians and NATO.  I don't think many thought this would really happen, so I do believe that a lot of them were surprised.

However, at this point all Russian forces know there is a war going on.  While they might not know what they are supposed to do in Ukraine, none of them should be surprised they are there.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Link that has verified equipment losses:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Germany announced a doubling of their Defense Budget - one time  increase at this stage - but who knows . Putin seems to be working for the strengthening of  the EU and NATO . Good on him !

100 Milliarden! 

[BornGinger]

Battlefront was the first game company about this kind of conflict. I suspect that others will follow. Maybe we'll se something like "Call of Duty - Project Conflict in Ukraine" and "Battlefield 2022 - Defence of Kyiv".

[Armorgunner]

Sweden is sending 5k modern helmets, 5k bodyarmor, and 5k AT-4 RL. little dissapointed, had hopes for 1-2k NLAWS too. 50 milj Euro to the armed forces of Ukr too. And 135k Field rations

Edited February 27, 2022 by Armorgunner

[BeondTheGrave]

11 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Indicators are its going to be bad. 

Another bad economic indicator. View it from a political lens, and it seems like the UK and Europe persuaded to further cut Russian oil off and diversify supply. View it from an economic lens, BP is going to try and get out with its cash before the economic fire burns it down. 

The big winners here are going to be midwestern Americans and Saudi princes. I have no doubt in five years they will become Europe's biggest energy suppliers. 

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

During the battle for Hostomel airfield this beauty was lost  

Why are the Ukrainian colours upside down? Shouldn't it be yellow in the bottom?

[womble]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Why are the Ukrainian colours upside down? Shouldn't it be yellow in the bottom?

So you can tell whose it is when it's doing aerobatics?

 

[ASL Veteran]

Re Nuclear War - I think we can all agree that a Nuclear War would kill millions upon millions from many nations including Russia (possibly the end of the world through nuclear winter) and if Putin is threatening that just because Russia was removed from the SWIFT banking system that's probably not a rational actor or he's bluffing.  Putin can't just assume that he can toss nuclear weapons around and not be on the receiving end of a few himself.  Russia could be turned into glass, and I have to assume that he is fully aware of that.  A rational human being would, perhaps, use nuclear weapons if their nation was facing an existential threat of annihilation against an enemy that can't be negotiated with.  Using nuclear weapons because the EU is providing arms to Ukrainian soldiers who are resisting an invasion and are 100% in no position to pose an existential threat to the continuation of Russia as a nation is nuts if Putin actually means it.  If that's a true reflection of his attitude about nuclear weapons, then you could probably assume that he would use them for almost any excuse.  Maybe if he thinks that a coup is imminent, he might decide to light the world on fire as he goes down in flames (Hitler like).  All the more reason to see if he can be removed from the international stage now if possible.

Re abandoned equipment - I have to wonder about all this abandoned equipment.  One would assume that if soldiers were fully on board with what they were doing that they would be destroying or disabling their equipment when they leave it lying about, but if they are just leaving stuff around that they would have to know that the Ukrainian military can use is a little odd to me.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Sweden is sending 5k modern helmets, 5k bodyarmor, and 5k AT-4 RL. little dissapointed, had hopes for 1-2k NLAWS too. 50 milj Euro to the armed forces of Ukr too. And 135k Field rations

The joking about Ukraine asking for weapons and Germany supply helmets is well known and well deserved IMHO.  However, Ukraine is in the process of massively increasing it's light infantry.  AFAIK they do not have the helmets and body armor for that.  If I were a newly signed up volunteer and I had the choice between Swedish body armor and helmet or an NLAW, I'd take the helmet and body armor.  I can always pick up a weapon somewhere else, but not if I have a shell fragment haircut.

Steve

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, akd said:

One regiment (forget which) of 4th Guards Tank Division is only unit that operates T-80U.

Isn't that ? (2020 report)

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, womble said:

So you can tell whose it is when it's doing aerobatics?

 

[Armorgunner]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

The joking about Ukraine asking for weapons and Germany supply helmets is well known and well deserved IMHO.  However, Ukraine is in the process of massively increasing it's light infantry.  AFAIK they do not have the helmets and body armor for that.  If I were a newly signed up volunteer and I had the choice between Swedish body armor and helmet or an NLAW, I'd take the helmet and body armor.  I can always pick up a weapon somewhere else, but not if I have a shell fragment haircut.

Steve

Well, they get an AT-4 too. Works well against APC, and IFV´s. But not frontally against tanks. I hope it is the CS version, so they can fire from inside buildings.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, ASL Veteran said:

Re abandoned equipment - I have to wonder about all this abandoned equipment.  One would assume that if soldiers were fully on board with what they were doing that they would be destroying or disabling their equipment when they leave it lying about, but if they are just leaving stuff around that they would have to know that the Ukrainian military can use is a little odd to me.

I have a one word answer... Panic.

Most of the columns I've seen have a significant portion clearly hit by enemy fire.  In column formation, either exposed or closed in terrain, the soldiers in the vehicles not struck have to presume that they are next and seconds count.  Once out of the vehicles they would run as fast as they could to cover.

If the destruction doesn't continue *AND* their morale is decent, then they either go back to resume their march or they spike their equipment if they physically can't or they set up a defensive perimeter to wait for relief.

These abandoned columns indicate none of these things are happening.  Because of that, I think it is reasonable to conclude:

1.  Morale is probably very low to start with and this sort of situation doesn't tend to improve things

2.  They have horrible situational awareness and flee because they have absolutely no idea where they are or what's happening

3.  When their column is struck they panic and flee because of the above two

Steve