How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Taranis]

Thank you guys for giving all those really interessing news.

[DesertFox]

 

 

[CHEqTRO]

This war is turning into an existential threat to Putin Regime. 

You only have to look at the face of Shoigu at the end of Putin declaration to know how bad the situation really is.

[Zveroboy1]

Pretty sure they took the phones of Russian soldiers before the invasion, this is why 90% of the footage you're seeing is from the Ukrainian perspective. Both sides follow rather strict opsec it feels like. And as a result almost all the footage is taken by civilians who are understandably not inclined to show images of dead fellow countrymen. And even if Russians appear to be performing rather poorly, this is probably painting a slightly distorted picture of the reality too.

[Bulletpoint]

Have there been any reports of additional Russian forces being mobilised and sent to Ukraine? Or is it still "only" the 41st army?

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[borg]

I just heard on SKY news that Putin placed Russian forces (nuclear) on high alert 

 

could this be ?

[womble]

1 minute ago, CHEqTRO said:

This war is turning into an existential threat to Putin Regime. 

And he's waving the MAD deterrent to protect himself (at least his personal position). I hope there are people who can stop him immolating the world just because he's about to get the boot. Sanctions are not an existential threat to the nation of Russia, and escalating even to the level of aggression he's already resorted to would be difficult to justify to an outsider. Threatening to nuke the west because of these sanctions is sheer lunacy. I suppose it shows they must be having an effect, even if only psychological.

Though maybe this whole Ukraine adventure is just a massive gambit to tell the rest of the world "I don't bluff", preparatory to making bigger demands backed up by megaton-range warheads. That'd be scary.

[BeondTheGrave]

They've finally reached the negotiating stage. I wonder what the best peace deal Ukraine could hope for is. At this point a cease fire in place seems unrealistic. A return to the status quo Feb 1? Pledges RE: Ukrainian entry into NATO or the west? Could Moscow and Kyiv reach some grander settlement of the Ukraine situation RE DR/LR and Crimea, or would peace just refreeze the conflict?

Anyway I think peace at this point is till unlikely. The Russians cant be seen to give up now but the clock is ticking and it seems like even China wants this conflict to be over. 

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, womble said:

Sanctions are not an existential threat to the nation of Russia,

I also have a hard time seeing the sanctions regime hold up in the event of a Russian pull back, Germany already doesn't want to cut Russia out of SWIFT. I think the US might rally some punitive sanctions, personal sanctions on Oligarchs and the Russian defense industry are probably here to stay. But I bet the real scary macroeconomic measures would be reversed on the condition of a Russian withdraw to antebellum positions. 

So literally this is all just about Putin not wanting to back down and lose face at this point. Its all for one mans ego. 

[Bulletpoint]

Russia's agreement to negotiate and setting their nuclear forces on high alert could be linked.

While Ukraine will likely demand all Russians to leave UKR, including in the occupied regions, the NATO countries might try to convince Ukraine to go for lesser demands to turn down the crisis now that Putin is turning up the nuclear rhetoric.

The end result might be that Russia withdraws, in exchange for Ukraine recognising Russian claims on Crimea and the "independence" of the areas in the east.

Putin would then be able to claim war success in that his stated aim was to protect these breakaway areas.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Bulletpoint

[womble]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Putin would then be able to claim war success in that his stated aim was to protect these breakaway areas.

Putin will claim victory using his pet mouthpieces anyway. Even though his stated aim was the "denazification" (which is a preposterous, nebulous term in and of itself) of Ukraine which couldn't be rationally achieved without the overthrow of the UKR regime which he patently hasn't achieved. He's pretty much "gone rogue" and should be dealt with in the future accordingly.

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR Su-25 (or even two Su-25 according to other information) shot down in Kerson oblast several hours ago

And reportedly two Russian helicopters downed near Ivankiv, Kyiv oblast

Haiduk,

Speaking as someone who stood next to a Su-25 (wings off and tail assembly removed) over the holidays, I can categorically state there's only one demolished Su-25 in that photo. There might be another down off-camera, but there is nowhere nearly enough aircraft debris for there to be two wrecks in the one pic provided.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian army is searching for a column of Russian equipment marked with a "V" that is heading for Kyiv.

Ok, the column was found and completely destroyed in Bucha. I don't know - either airstrike, or artillery. I can't count all of them - looks like a comapniy of VDV on BMD-2, BTR-D, Nona (at least one teared off turret seen) and 1-2 motor-rifle platoons of BTR-82 + 1V14 FO vehicle and fuel tanker

Local inhabitant speech, which filmed this devastation contains mostly selected filthy language in adress of Russians, which I can't adequately translate in English

Two parts of video

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[BornGinger]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

unless the russians are capable to throw in a second wave in the assault it looks to me the assault has run out of steam and they will start to crumble beginning next week. Let´s see what happens. Time is working in favour of the ukrainians

Seems a bit like a repetition of the German Winter offensive to take Antwerp in December 1944. It goes quite well in the beginning but dies out after a while because of problems with the lack of fuel for the tanks and the roads in the Ardenner region of Belgium not really good for the King Tiger tanks.

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, womble said:

He's pretty much "gone rogue" and should be dealt with in the future accordingly.

Yes, but that rogue still has nuclear weapons. The real question is not whether he is a rogue, but whether he is rational.

If he is, he will be trying to cut his losses at this point and find a way to end the war with some kind of symbolic victory or achievement.

NATO countries would do well to leave him a way out instead of going for total victory and humiliation.

[CHEqTRO]

17 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Russia's agreement to negotiate and setting their nuclear forces on high alert could be linked.

While Ukraine will likely demand all Russians to leave UKR, including in the occupied regions, the NATO countries might try to convince Ukraine to go for lesser demands to turn down the crisis now that Putin is turning up the nuclear rhetoric.

The end result might be that Russia withdraws, in exchange for Ukraine recognising Russian claims on Crimea and the "independence" of the areas in the east.

Putin would then be able to claim war success in that his stated aim was to protect these breakaway areas.

That could be the off- ramp to this mess. The Ukranians give up Crimea and Donbass and accept stop seeking to join NATO (but still they get to join EU, this is the important bit), and all Russian troops withdraw. It would be a strategic defeat for Putin, as the ground won its minimal/esentially he already controlled it, and even thought he gets the Ukranins out of NATO, they still get to join the EU, so they are irremediably out of their sphere of influence. In exchange he maybe avoids some of the harsher sanctions that are being planned yet have not still been applied. However he has shown its army to be a paper tiger and has hurted its economy and global position for the time being, in a nearly irreparable way. Germany has shifted from a friendly position with Russia, to one of hostility.

He can twist this as a victory for his internal audience and maybe some of its propagandists abroad. Yet lets not be mistaken, this peace terms and the general world situation that has arose over the war is a very serious strategic defeat for Russia, which will remain a secondary power at best for the time being. Thats why I am somewhat skeptical over the possibility of them agreeing to peace terms.

[BeondTheGrave]

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

NATO countries would do well to leave him a way out instead of going for total victory and humiliation.

I think thats right. IF Russia is serious about negotiations and dont start with 'we demand you turn over all Nazi officials' then there is a real chance for peace, and one that probably Ukraine needs. That being said in the US at least there will be a huge and dramatic push to hold out for better terms. This always happens. Probably the US and Ukraine could hold the Europeans on board a few more days, long enough to watch the Ruble and the MoEx crater, but absent a real threat not much longer. I dont think they would tolerate a counterattack into Russian held land, for example. 

A good potential peace deal: Ukraine recognizes Russian Crimea and grants independence to the two disputed oblasts, maybe minus Mariupol. Russian troops withdraw and western sanctions, the real ones like SWIFT, are revoked. If I were Ukraine I might also push for demilitarization in Crimea as well, but thats just me. Ukraine is now free of territorial disputes, its path into the EU and NATO is assured. Russia complains, but can do nothing. 

Well see if my prediction comes true, though so often they dont lol. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[womble]

Assuming that "we" are reading this right, and the Russians have shot their bolt and missed their target, the question of NATO membership is sortof interesting... Ukraine wanted to join because they felt threatened by Russia. They were right to feel that Russia might well attack them, but it turns out they didn't need to be a full member of NATO to stop the Russian bear in its tracks. I mean, it's going to have cost them, and the deterrence of having been a NATO signatory might've prevented any attack happening.

I wonder whether there's any halfway house where RUS and UKR can sign a formal treaty about territory, with NATO as a guarantor? It would sortof be a backdoor entry to many of the benefits of NATO membership (that the Balts and Poland are probably very thankful for just now), but would emphatically not be UKR membership of NATO, so Putin could take that back as a victory...

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

In terms of "sob-storyness", Belgium actually has Ukraine beat. For one thing, in relative terms the gap between Ukraine and Russia is a lot smaller than Belgium and Germany. For another thing, Belgium really was trying to remain neutral, as opposed to Ukraine's constant aspirations to ally with NATO. For a third thing, Belgium never crossed Germany in the way Ukraine did, or if it happened I'm not aware of it.

 

But then again Germany didn't steal away a large part of Belgium, did not support Germans living in Belgium with weapons and disguised German soldiers, did not poison Belgian politicians and wasn't a criminal regime which killed journalists and dissidents.

5 hours ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

Like I said, Belgium is really much more of a sob story than Ukraine is, but we don't lose our shirts when we discuss Germany invading Belgium. It is possible to understand Germany's need to attack Belgium while still on balance condemning it. No one would advocate torture just to "show the Germans".

You can in no way compare Putin's aggression with the German invasion of Belgium in 1914. Germany knew war was only a matter of time and also knew it would be a two-front war (it turned out that even that was optimistic). It tried to push France out of the war, before the Russians would invade Eastern Prussia, which didn't succeed. An ENTIRELY different situation.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[akd]

5 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Even the kids aren't giving the invaders a free pass.

That is obviously not Ukraine. Think before you post.

[CHEqTRO]

1 minute ago, womble said:

I wonder whether there's any halfway house where RUS and UKR can sign a formal treaty about territory, with NATO as a guarantor? It would sortof be a backdoor entry to many of the benefits of NATO membership (that the Balts and Poland are probably very thankful for just now), but would emphatically not be UKR membership of NATO, so Putin could take that back as a victory...

Joining the EU would be essentially that. We have i the EU "neutral" nations such as Finland, Austria and Ireland. Yet if they were attacked they would be defended by the EU and in larga NATO. The same can be applied to Ukraine

[BeondTheGrave]

1 minute ago, womble said:

Assuming that "we" are reading this right, and the Russians have shot their bolt and missed their target, the question of NATO membership is sortof interesting... Ukraine wanted to join because they felt threatened by Russia. They were right to feel that Russia might well attack them, but it turns out they didn't need to be a full member of NATO to stop the Russian bear in its tracks. I mean, it's going to have cost them, and the deterrence of having been a NATO signatory might've prevented any attack happening.

I wonder whether there's any halfway house where RUS and UKR can sign a formal treaty about territory, with NATO as a guarantor? It would sortof be a backdoor entry to many of the benefits of NATO membership (that the Balts and Poland are probably very thankful for just now), but would emphatically not be UKR membership of NATO, so Putin could take that back as a victory...

Using EU membership is an interesting alternative. But I still think Ukraine will want to join the western security system. NATO membership in either 2014 or 2022 would have stopped the crisis dead. No matter how triumphant they seem now, it was a close run thing that has cost Ukraine thousands of lives and billions in economic damage. They will be living with the scars of this for decades. Better for it never to have happened. 

Another potential, Ukraine could pursue a bilateral or regional treaty obligation. An EETO of sorts. Poland, Baltics, Romania, the US all go in for a separate collective defense scheme. Lot of interesting possibilities for Washington and Europe if the Russians do in fact withdraw. 

[BeondTheGrave]

More bad news for the Russians

[womble]

2 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Joining the EU would be essentially that. We have i the EU "neutral" nations such as Finland, Austria and Ireland. Yet if they were attacked they would be defended by the EU and in larga NATO. The same can be applied to Ukraine

That would seem to infringe on Vlad's desires to keep UKR out of formal military alliance with the rest of Europe, though would keep at least some of the distance from the US that he seems to want.

[Haiduk]

Any territorial concessions from our side are impossible. Our army and society got courage and will not allow such deals. I assume possibility of neutral status only. Ukranian society pleased to NATO for a weapon, but dissappointed because of "deep concerning" policy and fear in front of Russia. Year ago Putin also either prepared invasion or just trained it, but B-52s in our sky, British paratroopers in Kherson some colled him. If NATO would send some troops for demonstrative purpose, maybe Putin will not dare to invade and thousands of lifes would be saved...

Edited February 27, 2022 by Haiduk