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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Ah, so not specific to Belarus forces then, if even that.  They don't have Tigr as far as I can tell.

OK, the O forces came from Belarus on both southward pushes (Chernobyl and Cherninhiv). Perhaps it has something to do with the recent exercises and they left the markings on.  Curious that they aren't as widely seen as V and Z.

I'm very curious about this.  If anybody else sees images with the O mark, especially ones that can be dated and positioned on a map, I'd appreciate seeing them here.

Steve

P.S. that was a lot of destroyed equipment all in one spot. I know Ukraine identified a couple in that area on the first day, but I didn't see video of it until now.  Thanks!

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11 minutes ago, arkhangelsk2021 said:

That seems to be a relatively old MT-LB (might be a BTR too but I think those were caterpillar sounds).

I thought they were wheeled BTRs. But that aside a) as others have already said, it's from 2014, b) they're not exactly state of the art hardware, c) they are ramming barricades to try and break them down, not what you'd expect Russian combat forces to be doing and d) there's not any conclusive evidence the vehicles were destroyed as opposed to simply getting covered in burning petrol and reversing out of there off camera

Edited by TheVulture
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About the symbols on the Russian vehicles..

Germans in early WW2 had the first letter of the name of the commanding general/fieldmarshall from army/corps on the vehicles. G was Guderian, L was Liszt, and B von Bock, for instance.

Could it be the Russians did the same now?

 

Edited by Seedorf81
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13 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I thought modern APCs were resistant to molotov cocktails?

I would think burning gasoline being sucked in through the engine grill isn't very healthy for any vehicle.

Saw a video where over 5000 molotovs were being made on 1 street corner alone. This could get very nasty for the Russians.

Edited by db_zero
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12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, so not specific to Belarus forces then, if even that.  They don't have Tigr as far as I can tell.

OK, the O forces came from Belarus on both southward pushes (Chernobyl and Cherninhiv). Perhaps it has something to do with the recent exercises and they left the markings on.  Curious that they aren't as widely seen as V and Z.

I'm very curious about this.  If anybody else sees images with the O mark, especially ones that can be dated and positioned on a map, I'd appreciate seeing them here.

Steve

P.S. that was a lot of destroyed equipment all in one spot. I know Ukraine identified a couple in that area on the first day, but I didn't see video of it until now.  Thanks!

 

Bakhmach:

Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) Tweeted:
Video of Ukrainians in the North-Eastern town of Bakhmach trying to stop tanks with their bodies.

https://t.co/obpmespTQr

Edited by akd
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52 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

@The_Capt To your questions about internet:

 
Interesting use of the phrase "Contract" servicemen. Mercenaries? PMCs? Volunteerists

 

I was discussing the terms of Russian military service with a veteran of the Chechen war. He told me that the first compulsory service is the lowest level of experience. If one wishes to remain in service after the compulsory service and become a Noncommissioned Officer, they sign a “contract.” It”s basically the same as re-enlisting in the US military, except they are then referred to as “Contractors.”

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1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

This is filling station :)

I think there should be someone standing there with a big sign reminding people not to smoke :D  Years ago there was some dumb kids siphoning gas out of school buses at night.  One of them decided to use a lighter to see what they were doing.  It didn't turn out well for him.  He rolled around to put himself out while his two buddies ran away.  Unfortunately for him, rolling around meant his wallet with ID fell out of his pocket.  I am not making this up, BTW.

Hopefully that Darwin Awards contender lightened the mood a little bit (lightened... get it?)

Steve

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Don't know if this has already be mentioned, but looks like the hacker group anonymous has hacked into Russian TV and is broadcasting the truth about what is going on.

 

Besides Molotovs, remember when large sheets were used to blind vehicles crews?

Edited by db_zero
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3 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Don't know if this has already be mentioned, but looks like the hacker group anonymous has hacked into Russian TV and is broadcasting the truth about what is going on.

 

Besides Molotovs, remember when large sheets were used to blind vehicles crews?

 

Video. I saw this a few different places, but wasn't sure how widespread the hack was. Seems like something that could be easily faked. 

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I keep catching myself digging for confirmation bias that Ukraine will win.  When I look at it objectively all I know is there's a lot of murder & mayhem ahead.  Skinny russian conscripts 19 yr olds being killed or forced to mow down amateur fighters in urban areas who are trying to immolate them.  This is awful.  What happens at dawn Sunday in Kyiv with all the pressure Putin is putting on the military commanders?

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1 minute ago, db_zero said:

Don't know if this has already be mentioned, but looks like the hacker group anonymous has hacked into Russian TV and is broadcasting the truth about what is going on.

I read their threat released earlier today, personally addressed to Putin.  I figured they wouldn't make the threat if they couldn't do it.  Looks like they did.

Good.  The Russian people need to see the truth before deciding if this is the path they want their country to go down.

Steve

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8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I keep catching myself digging for confirmation bias that Ukraine will win.

I am double checking this too, however in my case I had a list of things to look for and their importance before the fighting started.  What that means is I'm comparing what is actually happening to what we (myself and someone else, primarily) predicted would happen.  I've done this for Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 and seen how they lined up.  I've also compared each day to the other.  Confirmation bias, in my case, is that what's happening now is pretty much as expected.  If the original conclusions were reasonably correct, then I have a pretty good idea of where this is headed.

8 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

This is awful.  What happens at dawn Sunday in Kyiv with all the pressure Putin is putting on the military commanders?

We're already seeing this tonight in Kharkiv.  Looks like he is going to try leveling urban areas with rocket and artillery fire.  All dumb munitions for sure as Russia has precious few smart ones in inventory.

Kiev will get the same treatment probably tomorrow.

Steve

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22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am double checking this too, however in my case I had a list of things to look for and their importance before the fighting started.  What that means is I'm comparing what is actually happening to what we (myself and someone else, primarily) predicted would happen.  I've done this for Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 and seen how they lined up.  I've also compared each day to the other.  Confirmation bias, in my case, is that what's happening now is pretty much as expected.  If the original conclusions were reasonably correct, then I have a pretty good idea of where this is headed.

We're already seeing this tonight in Kharkiv.  Looks like he is going to try leveling urban areas with rocket and artillery fire.  All dumb munitions for sure as Russia has precious few smart ones in inventory.

Kiev will get the same treatment probably tomorrow.

Steve

So need to charge Putin as war criminal in international court, immediately, based on the indiscriminate shelling of civilian population.

And here's my current idea for how the west can help out in a more direct way, as per Aragorn earlier.  Poland is bearing brunt of huge refugee crisis, which is overwhelming, and so they want to keep the refugees in Ukraine while still helping them.  So they unilaterally declare 'safe zone' in western Ukraine, based around Lviv.  In safe zone they send in Polish forces to block all main roads in.  They declare they are only protecting refugees and their own state interests.  In safe zone they begin to setup refugee camps.  Poland declares that any land or air military violation of the safe zone perimeter will be met with force.  Poland presents this as a mix of self interest and humanitarian concern, and says not a NATO sanctioned operation, though lots of help could flow in from NATO countries. 

Also helps keep supply line from the west open.  If Russia complains about that they are welcome to come fight the Polish army.

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3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And here's my current idea for how the west can help out in a more direct way, as per Aragorn earlier.  Poland is bearing brunt of huge refugee crisis, which is overwhelming, and so they want to keep the refugees in Ukraine while still helping them.  So they unilaterally declare 'safe zone' in western Ukraine, based around Lviv.  In safe zone they send in Polish forces to block all main roads in.  They declare they are only protecting refugees and their own state interests.  In safe zone they begin to setup refugee camps.  Poland declares that any land or air military violation of the safe zone perimeter will be met with force.  Poland presents this as a mix of self interest and humanitarian concern, and says not a NATO sanctioned operation, though lots of help could flow in from NATO countries. 

You do realize that your plan would also infringe Ukrainian sovereignty, do you?

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