How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Homo_Ferricus]

9 minutes ago, Probus said:

MANPADS/Stingers at work:

 

Anyway to ID these as Russian for certain? I saw videos yesterday of UA Hind pairs making runs against RU ground forces, presumably somewhere near Kyiv.

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

I’m hearing the Ukrainians are letting captured Russian troops to call home and talk to family…

The smartest move that US Grant made during the ACW was to parole the half starved and demoralized soldiers captured after Vicksburg. It did more to secure the upper South than could have been done by 20,000 federal troops. 

Interesting analysis, echoing lots of what is being said here

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

The smartest move that US Grant made during the ACW was to parole the half starved and demoralized soldiers captured after Vicksburg. It did more to secure the upper South than could have been done by 20,000 federal troops. 

Interesting analysis, echoing lots of what is being said here

 

 

Finland and Sweden won't join NATO. Forget about that.

[Probus]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Finland and Sweden won't join NATO. Forget about that.

Why so @Aragorn2002?  I understand Sweden staying neutral, but why Finland?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Finland and Sweden won't join NATO. Forget about that.

They don't really need to anyway.  Russia is not going to attack Sweden on its own.  Finland would likely ask for traditional military alliances and get it.  After all, NATO countries are free to act outside of the framework whenever they like.  Even when the rest of the members don't agree (e.g. Turkey's operations against the Kurds).

Steve

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, Probus said:

MANPADS/Stingers at work:

 

Сameraman exclaims at the end: "It is falling on Sagy!!!". Sagy is village in Kherson oblast.

[Chibot Mk IX]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

You what?

Don't get me wrong, I have no sympathy for an invasion army. I just feel bad for those staff officers.

I had a very busy week on work, so I can totally understand how frustration it is: Your CO. yelling at you , he needs a new offensive begin tomorrow. BTG 001-005 reports they are low on ammo, BTG 008 requests fire support from Arty Bde. BTG 011-013 says the need fuel. BTG 015 reports they lost three tanks due to enemy fire, but they are not burning, needs recovery bn's ARV support. BTG 006 cmdr reports no one protect his flank. OK, good news, you still have BTG 007 on your hand. Now you got to do calculation (and lots of calculation), check out the latest location of those who needs supplies  , send out couple convoys from Army's depot (probably 50km away from the border) travel 150km distance . Then communicate with those BTG commanders , ask them to meet with convoy x at certain location at certain time.

Good luck with that, a tiny error could causing a disaster to the supply convoys and the BTGs at the frontline.

 

If I have been assigned to this kind of job, I'd rather 躺平 (lying flat)    

[Vergeltungswaffe]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Another vid of clueless russian kids

 

 

This is why the attack will ultimately fail.

I hope the Russian people will put an end to Putin's dreams.

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

the Donbass war in 2014 is a great success for Rus BTGs.

No. Russians BTG's attacked our sector D, which was weaken by three-week artillery/MLRS shellings on the border when about 60-70 % of vehicles were destroeyed or damaged and many of conscripts had a low motivation. On the moment of invasion, most of trops of Sector D already breakthrough from the pocket. So, Russians attacked remains of Sector D group with alsmost disrupted C&C and some volunteer units almost w/o armor near Ilovaisk. Russians have overhelming superiorirty (add DNR units also) in personnel, equipment and they were fresh. 

In sector A, when UKR troops mostly saved C&C capabilities, sucess of Russian BTG's was minimal. Rugged defense of Luhansk airport and heavy battle for Georgiivka are examples of UKR could successfully fight with Russian army  

Edited February 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Snols]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/26-february-oil-depot-in-rovenky-of-luhansk-region-caught 

There will be more problems with fuel supply for Invaders 

[OldSarge]

9 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Don't get me wrong, I have no sympathy for an invasion army. I just feel bad for those staff officers.

I had a very busy week on work, so I can totally understand how frustration it is: Your CO. yelling at you , he needs a new offensive begin tomorrow. BTG 001-005 reports they are low on ammo, BTG 008 requests fire support from Arty Bde. BTG 011-013 says the need fuel. BTG 015 reports they lost three tanks due to enemy fire, but they are not burning, needs recovery bn's ARV support. BTG 006 cmdr reports no one protect his flank. OK, good news, you still have BTG 007 on your hand. Now you got to do calculation (and lots of calculation), check out the latest location of those who needs supplies  , send out couple convoys from Army's depot (probably 50km away from the border) travel 150km distance . Then communicate with those BTG commanders , ask them to meet with convoy x at certain location at certain time.

Good luck with that, a tiny error could causing a disaster to the supply convoys and the BTGs at the frontline.

 

If I have been assigned to this kind of job, I'd rather 躺平 (lying flat)    

Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics.
    -- Omar Bradley

Large operations succeed or fail based upon the ability of logistics to keep the forward elements well supplied. During the First Gulf war, it was said that you could tell where the U.S. armor forces were by tracking where the fuel trucks were heading.
 

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

33 minutes ago, Probus said:

Why so @Aragorn2002?  I understand Sweden staying neutral, but why Finland?

Finland has a long and effective understanding with Russia. It's function as a buffer is for both Russia and NATO Important. Apart from that Finland, with it's long border and coastline and many islands is hard to defend, so the Finns will never risk a conflict with Russia. Putins next aggression will be aimed at the Baltic states, not against Sweden or Finland.

Finlands relation with it's big neighbour is very complicated and the Finns will never put that at risk. They haven't forgotten how they stood alone against Russia in the winter war and how the Brits after the continuation war practically delivered them to the mercy of Stalin. There's an extremely interesting book on that subject, called Diplomatic Deceptions. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

19 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Don't get me wrong, I have no sympathy for an invasion army. I just feel bad for those staff officers.

I had a very busy week on work, so I can totally understand how frustration it is: Your CO. yelling at you , he needs a new offensive begin tomorrow. BTG 001-005 reports they are low on ammo, BTG 008 requests fire support from Arty Bde. BTG 011-013 says the need fuel. BTG 015 reports they lost three tanks due to enemy fire, but they are not burning, needs recovery bn's ARV support. BTG 006 cmdr reports no one protect his flank. OK, good news, you still have BTG 007 on your hand. Now you got to do calculation (and lots of calculation), check out the latest location of those who needs supplies  , send out couple convoys from Army's depot (probably 50km away from the border) travel 150km distance . Then communicate with those BTG commanders , ask them to meet with convoy x at certain location at certain time.

Good luck with that, a tiny error could causing a disaster to the supply convoys and the BTGs at the frontline.

 

If I have been assigned to this kind of job, I'd rather 躺平 (lying flat)    

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Sarjen said:

No. This time Germany will deliver 1000 Panzerfaust3 and 400 Stinger Manpads. 

Yeah that is indeed new. Man muss ihn zum Jagen tragen...

[danfrodo]

23 minutes ago, Snols said:

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/26-february-oil-depot-in-rovenky-of-luhansk-region-caught 

There will be more problems with fuel supply for Invaders 

so that is russian fuel depot? 

[Snols]

Yes, in Lugansk region. Apparently not only Russians have special forces.

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

So weapons, including panzerfausts now, are being shipped from Poland to Ukraine.  But how do those weapons get to those in the big fights I wonder?  By truck it looks to be ~200 miles to kyiv, ~300+ to the east.  So one day truck trip but can they get the weapons those last few miles to the troops in need?  I sure hope so. 

I am under the impression they will move them in twenty year old Ladas, or Donkey that are almost that old if they have too. 

[cyrano01]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

They could be “bullet sponges” to depreciate the UKR weapons supplies before they send in the “elite.”

I'm almost wondering if some of the better quality units are being held back against the possibility of outside intervention, depsite the statements from the West that it won't happen. If Putin is sufficiently paranoid...

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah that is indeed new. Man muss ihn zum Jagen 

Besser halb gedreht denn komplett verloren...

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Finland has a long and effective understanding with Russia. It's function as a buffer is for both Russia and NATO Important. Apart from that Finland, with it's long border and coastline and many islands is hard to defend, so the Finns will never risk a conflict with Russia. Putins next aggression will be aimed at the Baltic states, not against Sweden or Finland.

Putin surely wants the Baltic states back in his empire, just like he wants Ukraine.  But how insane would it be for him to even try?  He'd get smashed.  Euro/US states could mass some really high quality, super deadly forces before he's massed his invasion force.  So how could he pull it off?  We'd see it coming and be very well prepared.  If he put the whole russian military up there he'd make some progress, but in not very long the force would be degraded beyond offensive capabilities and would be out of supplies, which are burning on the roads behind the front. 

Of course, Putin's not looking like the most rational actor at the moment, so you are probably right

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Besser halb gedreht denn komplett verloren...

Aw c'mon fellas.  You know us americans don't speak no euro stuff.  Translation?  If you're gonna post, ya gotta share

[danfrodo]

Wow, SNols, that is some serious intel, thanks much. 

[cyrano01]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There are all kinds of nasty things Russia can still do, including wider use of cluster munitions.

The old saying about there is nothing more dangerous than a cornered injured animal.  Putin is in that corner and he is getting more wounded by the day.  Anything is possible.  I'd not even rule out him thinking a tactical nuke was worth a try.

Steve

Quite, scary stuff. At hte very least the Russians might decide to go down the Grozny/Aleppo route in Kiev rather than committing their second wave troops to an immediate assault on the city.

[TheVulture]

4 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Aw c'mon fellas.  You know us americans don't speak no euro stuff.  Translation?  If you're gonna post, ya gotta share

"Better half turned than completely lost". Which conveys the basic sentiment, although there's probably a more natural English idiom. Perhaps "Better to turn around than get totally lost"

Better to be half baked than complete toast?

Edited February 26, 2022 by TheVulture

[db_zero]

Hearing that large contingents of Chechen fighters are heading to Ukraine to assist Russia. These include "shock troops"

Doesn't surprise me. There are reports of supply and morale issues with Russian units. Don't know how good these Chechen fighters are, but I would guess they have some combat experience.

If this is true and accurate then its telling that Putin is asking and sending foreign fighters to assist.

Edited February 26, 2022 by db_zero