How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Interesting that Putin, who could've done this anytime, chooses to do it right about time of spring rasputitsa (sp?).  Keeping those russian columns on main roads is a nice bonus for the defense I suspect.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I am all about verify, verify and verify especially in the middle of a war, but this is really weird if true.  In western doctrine finding and killing these things was near the top of the target list..

It all depends on the condition at the moment. If the GRADs had already been fired, it might make sense to husband scarcer resources to use against more immediate threats. That’s one of the multitude of “on the spot” command decisions that every commander in the field must make.

[AlanSA]

18 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Me neither and I am native german.

I recall in the age of Trump that Germany was touted as the new "leader of the free world". All the while Merkel was making Germany more reliant of Russian gas with her energy policies and going ahead with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline screwing over her European allies who benefited from the tariff revenue off existing pipelines.  All to the benefit of Putin who had supposedly struck a dagger to the heart of American democracy. With friends like these....

Lets not get started on Merkel's predecessor Gerhard Schröder who counts Putin as a close personal friend.

Edited February 26, 2022 by AlanSA

[CHEqTRO]

More about Russian poor planing, and this is quite the story. They were sending units of riot police dashing into Kiev on their own:

 

[John Kettler]

The_Capt,
 

Hats off for providing an iconic CM Forum moment!

We will no this is really over when the NATO has to get assurances that Ukraine will not counter-attack into Russia.

Regards,

John Kettler

[BeondTheGrave]

edit: @CHEqTRO beat me to it!

 

Interesting story about an errant special police riot battalion, which apparently leapfrogged leading combat and recon elements, bypassed Hostomel airport and other big battlegrounds, and then found itself ambushed in central Kyiv alone and outgunned. 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

More about Russian poor planing, and this is quite the story. They were sending units of riot police dashing into Kiev on their own:

Strange to us in the West, but there's a long history of Russia using Ministry of The Interior (law enforcement) troops as special forces.  Most notably in the fighting for Donetsk airport in 2014.

I think it's a recognition that Russia doesn't have the numbers of military special forces it needs for infiltration operations.  Something that Russian police are trained to do as part of their normal job of keeping the population of Russia in line.

Steve

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

It all depends on the condition at the moment. If the GRADs had already been fired, it might make sense to husband scarcer resources to use against more immediate threats. That’s one of the multitude of “on the spot” command decisions that every commander in the field must make.

Hey I get tactical context but that weapon system is normally in a DAG - probably pushed down to a lower level in this one no doubt.  One does not simply drop ones MLRS, by my count 3 systems with 120 tubes can do a good job of suppressing a grid square, this would be a equivalent of a BTG dropping its rifle.  Sure conditions exist where you would but none of them are very good.  You are either out of gas, out of ammo or the enemy have overrun your rear area to name a few.

More precisely -   What would drive a commander to drop those weapon systems?

Edited February 26, 2022 by The_Capt

[CHEqTRO]

Regarding the situation on the front:

It seems the Russians have been massing artillery all day long against Kyiv. Tonight and tomorrow are going to be critical for the battle for the city, and such, for this war:

Unfortunetly, it seems the Russian army has broken throught in the south and is able to manouver freely in the Kherson area and Zaphorhizia. They have reached the nuclear plant of the area and are closing in Mariupol, most likely with the intention of surround it. They also seem to be near Mykolaiv (This might not be true honestly. There are reports of MLRS fire in the area but it doesnt necesarily mean that Russian forces are approaching just yet. Althought they usually use MLRS as preparation for actual attacks)

For the rest of the front, Kharkiv has been the scene of battles all day long, yet they have not been able to break throught the defenses. The situation is similar around Chernigov.

The most concerning situation is the south in my opinion. Specially if they are able to cut Mariupol. The good thing is, as they have failed to break throught Kharkiv, there is not going to be a full encirclement of the Ukranian armies of the Donbass just yet

Edited February 26, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Boche]

23 hours ago, dan/california said:

The extent to which CMBS is prophetic is utterly terrifying. Read the novella the U.S. Army armor officer wrote at the beginning of the CMBS rollout. The parts that are not absolutely dead on easily could be by this time next week.

 

Does anyone have a link or know where to find this? Thanks. Also its been really interesting reading all of the differnet takes on the thread.

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

People have focused too much on the total amount of Russian forces that can be brought into the fight.  Ukraine doesn't have to defeat 190,000 Russians, it only has to significant degrade the first line forces in the initial attack.  If it can do that, the Russian attack will ultimately fail.  Let me break that down a bit.

From my vantage point the first wave, roughly 1/3rd of the total ground force, was supposed to knock out most of the organized Ukrainian resistance.  The second 1/3rd was to mop up, the final third was designed for occupation.  The quality of each of these three forces, as well as their equipment allocations, was tailored to their task.  Best first, next best second, worst third. 

20% casualties is probably enough to cause a serious degradation of combat effectiveness.  Especially for the difficult task of attacking a determined enemy.  This means Ukraine only has to cause about 12,000 soldiers in the first wave to no longer be combat effective.  Even lightly wounded matters because of the compressed time period of this war.  Meaning, taking a Russian soldier out of combat for 2-4 days is almost as good as killing him outright from a battlefield standpoint.

Currently the Ukrainians are estimating they've caused about 3000 KIA Russians.  This could be inflated, could actually be an under count.  Let's assume it is off by a factor of 2 and they have only killed 1500.  Roughly speaking, one can expect 3-4 times that number wounded.  Going with 3, that means about 4500 wounded.  Ad to the 1500 KIA and you have 6000, which is half way to the 12,000 tipping point.

This is all rough math.  The Russian attack is divided up into three primary efforts, each with its own 1st line units.  They can not be shifted between efforts, so if one effort experiences a huge hit to effectiveness then that entire effort is probably permanently degraded.  The second wave can't make up for shortcomings of the first wave unless the defenders are nearly spent.  The third wave is useless.

As of today, the war is going pretty badly for the Russians.  What they most likely planned on achieving by the middle or end of the first day has not been achieved even by the third day.  Not even close.  I could go into more detail about that, but this post is already long enough.

I expect this war will be decided by tomorrow at the latest. 

The war, however, will last only so long as Putin keeps it going or he is deposed by someone who will end it.

Steve

When I was a regular (1969 to 1973) in the USMC, and even more so as a Reservist in the “Cold War,” it was our philosophy that whenever possible, it is better to “shoot to wound than to shoot to kill.” A dead man can be left where he falls until the opportunity to retrieve his body, while wounding one man usually requires two men to remove him to an area where he can receive aid. So in one case, you take out one, and in the other case you take out three.

[Battlefront.com]

Back to the fuel discussion.  A point I forgot to make...

Fuel consumption is heavily influenced by what you're doing with the vehicle.  If you're driving off road, you use more fuel.  If you are constantly starting and stopping, you use more fuel.  If you need to keep the engine running because you might need to move within seconds, you use more fuel.  If your adrenaline is pumping you're less likely to change gears appropriately, you use more fuel.  Etc.

Russian logistics planners who were told to anticipate X amount of road marching and Y amount of tactical activity over Z days would make their fuel calculations based on that information.  This dictates how much fuel is kept in what state of readiness. Changing any one of those variables and their calculations could be thrown way off.  It's pretty clear that all three are off the mark by a lot.

Upshot is... Russian forces have consumed more fuel than anticipated.

Add to this that if they were anticipating that the 2nd and 3rd waves would be driving relatively short and direct distances, then parking for extended periods of time, their logistics headaches just got soooooo much worse.

Steve

[BeondTheGrave]

Civilians making tank traps and Molotovs, probably from earlier today? 

 

An odd interaction here

Edited February 26, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Aragorn2002]

35 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

I think Putin was expecting much more of an anti-war movement in the west,  as with just about every war since Vietnam, which would limit governments abilities to respond diplomatically. But instead there has been virtual unanimity in support of Ukraine, even among the usual useful idiots. 

I've just seen the latest opinion poles. In the Netherlands more than 2/3 of the population is in cold war mode. That's unique. The new enemy is Putin and we're prepared to drastically increase the defence budget and defend Eastern Europe. I expect it will be the same in the rest of Europe.

But the only thing that will help Ukraine is massive arms deliveries and devastating sanctions. I wish NATO would send their forces to Ukraine, but I don't see that happen.

Edited February 26, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Unfortunetly, it seems the Russian army has broken throught in the south and is able to manouver freely in the Kherson area and Zaphorhizia. They have reached the nuclear plant of the area and are closing in Mariupol, most likely with the intention of surround it. They also seem to be near Mykolaiv

Yes, the advance of the Crimean based forces eastward towards Mariupol took 3 days to develop, but it is happening.  It will be interesting to see what happens when it runs into the Ukrainians who have been manning the front for 8 years.

However, the attack westward towards Odessa seems to still be experiencing significant problems.  The pitched battles at Kherson seems to have taken the steam out of the attack.  Several attempts to get behind them at Mykolaiv failed.

Steve

[CHEqTRO]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Strange to us in the West, but there's a long history of Russia using Ministry of The Interior (law enforcement) troops as special forces.  Most notably in the fighting for Donetsk airport in 2014.

I think it's a recognition that Russia doesn't have the numbers of military special forces it needs for infiltration operations.  Something that Russian police are trained to do as part of their normal job of keeping the population of Russia in line.

Steve

I mean, I understand that those units could be used in active fighting operations. What I find striking is that they are used as the point of the spear, and that they are going in completely unsupported. Maybe they thought that Kyiv was about to fall? There were Russian saboteurs in the city, maybe they got the wrong information that they had taken over the Rada?

[Aragorn2002]

20 minutes ago, AlanSA said:

I recall in the age of Trump that Germany was touted as the new "leader of the free world". All the while Merkel was making Germany more reliant of Russian gas with her energy policies and going ahead with the Nord Stream 2 pipeline screwing over her European allies who benefited from the tariff revenue off existing pipelines.  All to the benefit of Putin who had supposedly struck a dagger to the heart of American democracy. With friends like these....

Lets not get started on Merkel's predecessor Gerhard Schröder who counts Putin as a close personal friend.

Merkel has been a disaster for Germany.

[CHEqTRO]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, the advance of the Crimean based forces eastward towards Mariupol took 3 days to develop, but it is happening.  It will be interesting to see what happens when it runs into the Ukrainians who have been manning the front for 8 years.

However, the attack westward towards Odessa seems to still be experiencing significant problems.  The pitched battles at Kherson seems to have taken the steam out of the attack.  Several attempts to get behind them at Mykolaiv failed.

Steve

Agree. Supposedly there were air landings similar to the ones seen on Gostomel airport, with similar results.

By the way, there was another air drop around Kyiv that as well resulted in disaster, but I cannot find right now the Tweets about it

Also...

 

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Phantom Captain said:

Is he denying that they knew they were in Ukraine?  

 

For any of you who have never served in an infantry/combat arms unit, speaking from experience as a USMC Infanty, Small Unit Leader (0369) in the 1970s and early 1980s, men basically knew only what the higher-ups were willing to tell them. For example, I participated in the NATO Operation Teamwork in Northern Norway. We went from an airbase, Brekstat, onto Amphibious Assault Ships, steamed up the coast, and made our initial assault by helicopter. We assumed we were in Norway, but could have been landing in Soviet Territory for all we knew. So yes, it is possible that the grunts thought they were still in Russia.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

I mean, I understand that those units could be used in active fighting operations. What I find striking is that they are used as the point of the spear, and that they are going in completely unsupported. Maybe they thought that Kyiv was about to fall? There were Russian saboteurs in the city, maybe they got the wrong information that they had taken over the Rada?

Russia has used these forces as the tip of the spear before and poorly supported.  The units that fought at the Doentsk airport got their butts handed to them as a result.  Again, using law enforcement as military special forces is not something that is done in the West so understandably it is an alien concept.

However, you might be onto something.  If they thought they had identified the location of Zelensky they would have tried to capture or kill him.  So it is quite plausible that they had "actionable intelligence" and acted upon it with a daring, though poorly thought out, plan.

Certainly those who order such operations are smart enough to be nervous the whole house of cards is coming down around them if they don't do something big.  Could explain the recklessness of it.

Steve

 

[borg]

Steve. Since we got u here … what would u think/say about RUS bombers heading to Kyiv.  ? This is anticipated .? And .. UKR prepared ?

[George MC]

Interesting summary re effectiveness or otherwise of RU ops and BTG. Not sure on accuracy or sources. Not really my field of knowledge but would be interested in take from those who do?

[Battlefront.com]

There are all kinds of nasty things Russia can still do, including wider use of cluster munitions.

The old saying about there is nothing more dangerous than a cornered injured animal.  Putin is in that corner and he is getting more wounded by the day.  Anything is possible.  I'd not even rule out him thinking a tactical nuke was worth a try.

Steve

[Kraft]

Every video of captured / dead russians I see makes me wonder why they are sending their 2nd or 3rd best troops first. Often no optics, no body armor. The guys look like they are starving and their vehicles, with some exceptions, look like they've had the honor of visiting afghanistan some decades prior.

Unless some major confrontation after the fact is planned, why save the best and accept higher casulties, bolster Ukr morale and give the western politicans more time to be put under pressure to actually do something instead of sitting it out. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Kraft

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

What a strange thought, that German Panzerfausts will once again be fired in Ukraine.

This is one of the reasons the Germans are being idiots. Grief at saying goodbye to all that Russian money is the other one.