Multymegaton ****storm :) Could the Germans win the war?

[gunnergoz]

My version of the Fairy Tale is that there are no more "Could the Germans win the war threads."

In ten years of hanging around here, this sort of stuff has gotten really, really old. Bah, Humbug. (Dodders off...)

[sburke]

My version of the Fairy Tale is that there are no more "Could the Germans win the war threads."

In ten years of hanging around here, this sort of stuff has gotten really, really old. Bah, Humbug. (Dodders off...)

Damn hippie, get off my lawn! Where is my mush?

[De Savage]

I recently finished reading Adam Tooze's very good book about Nazi-German economics. "The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy". Gives good insight to economy aspect of war. Simply saying German lacked many of the raw materials AND manpower to continue war longer.

[Paper Tiger]

Okay, I'll bite but I'm no expert.

IMO, Hitler lost the war when he declared war on the US after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour.

[IMHO]

I haven't read the whole thread as this is ground I've been over several dozen times it seems. So I will just quickly run through my own hayseed version of how Germany could have avoided losing the war. Probably it's not a lot more realistic than any other such scenario as it depends from the outset on several things happening that had nearly a 0% chance of happening.

1. Hitler is killed in the First World War. That still leaves a bitterly resentful German military and a lot of political instability, but the Nazi party has a harder time attaining political dominance.

2. A conservative but much more moderate leadership takes power and has a much more conciliatory attitude towards its neighbors and former enemies. Given that they, and the US especially, were already willing to cut Germany a little slack economically, this might have gone far towards easing its economic problems.

3. As part of the easing of tensions with the West, Germany begins beating the drum—quietly at first, but then more insistently—about the Bolshevik threat to international peace. As a number of Western countries were already anxious about this, this message would have been well received in a number of capitals. After this has taken root, it reveals the "1934 plan", which is a kind of proto-NATO. Germany offers to ally itself with Britain, France, and Italy to guarantee the independence of all the nations bordering on the USSR. Within the context of this alliance, it requests that the Versailles Treaty be modified to allow a limited rearmament of Germany. This would legitimize the steps that the German military had taken in secret during the 1920s and early '30s and extend those.

The upshot of all this is that the USSR confronted with a unified West stays home and there is no war (the problems with Poland having been worked out by negotiation as part of Germany's "peace offensive"). Germany stays home and becomes prosperous and everybody benefits.

And they all lived happily ever after. There, that's my version of the fairy tale.

Michael

Michael, I've found your insightful posts on http://forum.axishistory.com

I generally agree with your scenario. But I believe it could have been implemented even after Anschluss and Czech occupation. Having strong isolationist sentiments in the US and general unwillingness to fight in France and UK (never mind Churchill - he always wanted to fight - whoever, whenever )... Think they would forgive the Germany if it would have behaved...

And what do you think abut Mediterranean option? Like foregoing Vichy, pushing Spaing and Portugal into submission (seems doable at the moment), winning the hearts and minds at Istanbul (what could she do having all her Northern neighbors occupied/allied with Axis) and then occupying Gibraltar. I don't believe Gemany could pull off Sea Lion or could hope to go after Middle East oil fields but at least it could play for a stalemate with the West at that point. Like mobilizing economy, pushing Sweden to build much needed North-South iron-ore railway, maxing out production of aircraft, U-boats, synthetic fuels. Destroying UK's Mediterranean fleet at the expense of hundreds of aircraft if she does not evacuate the ships before. Controlling Mediterranean plus increased U-boat / aircraft fleet operating out of Portugal/Spain give sufficient though not knock-out leverage against UK imports.

Putting maximum land forces on the East front and playing for the threat of Finland / Turkey / Poland based invasion against USSR to keep it out of the war. And using US isolationism from full commitment of their economy to the war effort. Though it's still very unstable position for the Germany - if either US or USSR goes to war, Germany still goes under, I believe. What do you think?

But as an afterthought this is certainly purely fantastical scenario. Having Hitler Germany was not able to muster much in the field of reasonable politics and state management. Having him not they would have hardly ever started the war And military decision making process wouldn't have provided the level of coordination and team play required.

[slysniper]

In my version of the story of make believe. Germany can win the war if by the simple fact. Russia does not have T34 and KV1 tanks at the start of the Russian campaign in 1941, without them. The German tactics would have managed to get them into Moscow, and other main objectives they had to win quickly. whole war changes from there once Russia is captured before the end of 1941, because of the new resources available to Germany.

[phil stanbridge]

This is a great thread. If Germany hadn't attacked the Soviet Union in '41 and instead concentrated on a single front, and focussed on building up a strong defensive position in eastern Germany they may have stood a much better chance.

If Hitler had allowed the bombing raids on London to continue for a few more days the British may have capitulated. With Britain out of the war Germany would have become unstoppable.

[DLaurier]

Here is my solution to getting a German victory in WW2.

As Hitler's plane approaches the runway at Orly, a seagull flys into the windscreen and impales the pilot with it's beak. The plane crashes, and Hitler is killed instantly.

The Hitler jig is never filmed.

Churchill finds Goering a much easyer person to negotiate with, (Two fat hedonists with delusions of superiority) and England is brought onside.

The racial policys are scrapped because they interfere with Goering's personal agenda.

He wants a gypsy to supply his heroin, a jew to treat his syphylis, and a slav to serve his caviar and bratwurst. Plus the Ukranians look better in Motorized infantry uniforms than in striped pajamas... and since all the gay men are in Dachau, there is nobody to MC at the Kabarett.

With no wastefull Battle of Britain, Goering has nothing to distract him from the holy crusade against godless communism.

By the end of 1941, crowds in Moscow are chanting "Heil Goering".

[Cogust]

Wouldn't that be "Guten Tag, Göring"?

[LemuelG]

I've got another one - what if Germany doesn't wage a remorseless war of genocide and slavery, and instead enters Soviet territory offering a viable and attractive alternative to Bolshevik terror?

[IMHO]

In my version of the story of make believe. Germany can win the war if by the simple fact. Russia does not have T34 and KV1 tanks at the start of the Russian campaign in 1941, without them. The German tactics would have managed to get them into Moscow, and other main objectives they had to win quickly. whole war changes from there once Russia is captured before the end of 1941, because of the new resources available to Germany.

1. To win Moscow Germans would have had to concentrate the effort in single thrust to the city. Roads do not exist, no gas stations to stop and top up the tanks So they'd need to concentrate logistics. But Moscow per se does not mean anything. Just another city with all production evacuated beyond Urals. So here comes the winter and Germans cannot move much beyond Moscow. While Stalin raises new divisions and builds new tanks. And next year the Germans are pushed back because they truly believe that winning Moscow equals winning the war. Just like in France

2. Germans didn't get much resources from Russia. The objective of the southern group of armies was getting oil fields in Maykop. Grozny and Baku. So they got 4.3 mln tons of crude which is almost as much as they were getting from Russia for free (4.0 million per year). Most of what they got, I believe, was from the stockpiles so if they stayed they would have gotten way less next year.

[IMHO]

I've got another one - what if Germany doesn't wage a remorseless war of genocide and slavery, and instead enters Soviet territory offering a viable and attractive alternative to Bolshevik terror?

Well... That would have made their life easier I believe. To what extent is unclear. But I think it wouldn't change it drastically. Skilled industrial workers are either evacuated with the works or drafted and peaceful peasants still don't grow tanks and don't milk oil. But it's definitely would have made life way more difficult for Uncle Joe.

[IMHO]

Here is my solution to getting a German victory in WW2.

As Hitler's plane approaches the runway at Orly, a seagull flys into the windscreen and impales the pilot with it's beak. The plane crashes, and Hitler is killed instantly.

The Hitler jig is never filmed.

Churchill finds Goering a much easyer person to negotiate with, (Two fat hedonists with delusions of superiority) and England is brought onside.

The racial policys are scrapped because they interfere with Goering's personal agenda.

He wants a gypsy to supply his heroin, a jew to treat his syphylis, and a slav to serve his caviar and bratwurst. Plus the Ukranians look better in Motorized infantry uniforms than in striped pajamas... and since all the gay men are in Dachau, there is nobody to MC at the Kabarett.

With no wastefull Battle of Britain, Goering has nothing to distract him from the holy crusade against godless communism.

By the end of 1941, crowds in Moscow are chanting "Heil Goering".

You bested all You should write a book around this option, I think.

[dieseltaylor]

Nice one DLaurier : )

Anyone like my Polish gambit with Russia hanging in mid-air? : (

[z1812]

Timing was a very important factor in the Nazi's defeat. Had Hitler listened to the majority of his General Staff and other advisors he would have waited longer to wage war. Their advice was that the earliest Germany could be well prepared for war would be 1943. Many advised waiting until 1945. Thank goodness for Hitler's impatience.

As others have mentioned, the persecution, killing, and interment of vast segments in different population groups hampered German ability to harness manpower and expertise.

Also as others have said. When you attack Russia you are " rolling the dice".

[Erwin]

You forget that the (later) "Allied" nations were rearming at a furious rate. Germany had a sweet time spot to attack before the victim countries got too strong.

WW2 was a war of logistics and economics (aren't they all actually). The US alone probably coulda beaten them all once its massive industrial power was fully mobilized into Total War. The US never had to go anywhere close to that extreme and pretty much cruised thru WW2 (economically) with little deprivation on the home front.

Also, it's very arguable thay the fall of Moscow would not have ended the war in the east. All their heavy industry had been shipped east thru the Urals well out of range of German bombers. (Since Germany was only equipped for short blitzkrieg wars they had neglected to develop long range bombers.) Instead the East Front would have become like Iraq/Afrghanistan on a much larger scale, until Germany went bankrupt trying to hold onto those massive territories vs partisans etc. as um... we have more recently seen.

[finalcut]

Yes, everyone's favorite "Hitler's biggest mistake"... I wonder, should he have just ignored the vast amounts of material sent over the ocean?

I've got one - what if the Nazis didn't squander so much of Europe's resources on the mass-murder and enslavement of millions defenceless civilians? Might that have helped?

I always imagined,The waste of Humans and Materiel that could have supplied Hitler was an amazing blunder.How many Jews could have been drafted,how many were of fighting age,if it wasn't for the ignorance and hate of the Nazi's the German Army would have been much stronger.More people to throw against the Soviet Union.Not sure how many Jews would have been loyal to thier home Country and fought for it,but probably a couple Million could have been drafted into Military service and would have felt it was thier duty to serve.All that Anti semetism really drained Germany of some amazing People.What a Moron Hitler was.

[Dadekster88]

We could have prevented a lot of problems by realizing early on that just because you can pick up a rock and bash the other guys head in at the firepit to take something of theirs doesn't mean it's the best or only thing to do.

Yeah, yeah I know, where's the fun in that.

I'd give an honest stab at the OP's question but tbh when people say what could Germany have done to win the war or just win in general I don't really know because what was it Hitler/Germany wanted to do?

1. Take over all of the world...you know the Hollywood Reich to stand all time etc etc.

2. Just become self sufficent?

3. Make the world all blond haired and blue eyed?

In other words, where did they plan to stop? We all know the usual pitfalls that befell Germany but knowing what they wanted to ultimately achieve would help in figuring out what they had to do to get that done. :confused:

[MengJiao]

The answer to number 1 (throttle up before the war) is that Germany was so up-throttled for war that they more or less was FORCED to go to war in 1939 as they othewise had to decide between crashing their economy BIG TIME in early 1940 at the latest or halving their military budget right away and hope that their economy would survive. About 60% of the total German production BEFORE the war started was going to the Wehrmacht and it was impossible to increase that or even sustain it for lack of raw material.

There were even coal shortages in the early war despite the fact that Germany was the biggest producer in Europe, that was because all the trains were moving troops, arms and ammunition instead of coal as the Reichbahn's budget had been cut to the bones for the last ten years to fuel the rearmament.

In other words, Hitler gambled EVERYTHING on a war in 1939 or early 1940 at the latest as he believed that the Western powers (supported by the US) would outproduce Germany in the long run, 1939 was his only shot and he believed that he had to take it or accept that Germany would be a secondary power for all future (he had pretty much managed to wreck the German export industry since 1933 and the entire economy was in stagnation except for the enormous surge in arms production in the 1930s).

If you want to get a very interesting view of the economics involved I can recommend Adam Tooze's 'Wages of Destruction'.

Yep. Tooze pretty much answers the question. The best thing Germany could have done was to let inflation run up in 1931, gotten their exports in order, turned commie in 1938 after recapitalizing, gotten russian backing, crushed Poland etc. and taken the rest of Europe by 1943. Clobbering Fascist Austria, Italy, Roumania, Hungary, Greece and Spain would have just been icing on their Commie German Cake. So they stop with control of the Baltic, Mediterreanean and North Sea. Then the USSR cleans up Japan and Peace with the USA reigns as the colonial empires are divided up.

[Renaud]

Another good book on the economic aspect: http://www.amazon.com/Vampire-Economy-Doing-Business-Fascism/dp/B000XG6RRQ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1311362969&sr=8-1

[Blackcat]

"In other words, where did they plan to stop? We all know the usual pitfalls that befell Germany but knowing what they wanted to ultimately achieve would help in figuring out what they had to do to get that done."

I don't think Hitler (and his was the only opinion that mattered) had an ultimate aim. Even if Russia had packed it in in 1941 I think he would have carried on finding more enemies to fight, invading Persia and India perhaps, who knows. I think that perhaps war had become the aim. That would certainly explain his lack of overall strategy.

Some years ago at a conference I chatted this point over with two psychiatrists and a psychologist. The consensus of their views was that Hitler was totally bonkers and what he ultimately, and subconsciously, wanted was what he got - Götterdämmerung.

[sburke]

Not to take this off on still another tangent, but on the gaming of "what if" discussions. One of the problems that I think will always frustrate me with strategic games like WiTE and WITP AE, even though I own both and really like them, is the key aspect of the war that we can't emulate is not working with the same info as the combatants did. WiTE is a classic example and I see once again appearing in discussion on their forum in many different ways is you can't refight Barbarossa and expect the same results simply because neither side is going to fight as their historical counterpart. The Germans know there are more forces coming once the border battles are won and the Russian winter is something you have to prepare for and the Russian player knows they are hopefully outclassed initially and therefore will not make the same errors Stavka did historically.

The same holds true in 1940. There is no surprise for us that the Panzers come through the Ardennes and we already have a comparison of capabilities.

I guess that is one of the reasons I really like CM scale, there is no preordained standard that I am fighting against. My chances of winning or losing are much more in my hands and not just based on trying to do just a little better than my historical countrpart.

[Steiner14]

We all know that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, the attack on the USS "Liberty" was an accident, Lee Harvey Oswald shot Kennedy on his own, the Lusitania was not filled with weapons and the "war on terror" based on 9/11 is based on truth, too! So do not disturb our insightful discussions! We have hundereds of TV-stations and newspapers and it's not possible to spread lies in the free western society, because the "free press" is not censored!

Reading this forum one could get the impression, the Soviets were NOT informed about every german attack, about the forces and the operational plan.

And that the invasion of Normandy only succeeded because german traitors kept the perfectly placed german Panzer divisions away from the coast as long as possible?

Steiner, what are you talking about? I have never heard about that, you evil Nazi!

Our western media tell us the truth about our enemys, you evil, evil revisionist...

[Blackcat]

Steiner,

I have read your post five times and I still come back to the question you pose yourself.

"Steiner, what are you talking about?"

[sburke]

I think he was referring to the theory Oswald shot kennedy on the USS Liberty as he was discovered planting WMDs. Or was it Col. Mustard in the library with the candlestick?