Multymegaton ****storm :) Could the Germans win the war?

[JonS]

Mr. Sowden,

I am quite happy to do some digging but when I see Terry Pratchett and the Discworld books in a list of sources I am tempted to believe my interlocutor maybe attempting to extract the urine.

Fair go. You want to claim that bomber command had the ability to hit precise targets at night and more effectively than the yanks could do so by day. Furthermore, you seem to want to claim that Harris deliberately ignored this capability. So please do me the curtesy of pointing me at some sources that back your claim and not a reading list which includes fantasy novels.

Fair point, and my apologies. I wasn't taking the pizz. I was heading out the door, and that was something I could point you at pretty quickly. The tags will let you narrow things down pretty quickly, should you wish to do so.

The thing about the CBO is that it's a massively complex 'thing' that can't really be adequately summarised in one book, let alone a couple of forum posts. That's why, in addition to convienience and time, I pointed at the library. You asked for a list of sources and, since what I know and think is a summation of what I've read, LibraryThing is a list of my sources (along with some other stuff). But, I'll have a look for a specific reference in a single book

Jon

[Magpie_Oz]

Not on the V1/2 it didn't.

Obviously but on the war effort as a whole?

Where the V1's and 2's anything other than a drain on resources and a bit of a psychological weapon?

[JonS]

Obviously but on the war effort as a whole?

They're probably still better off bombing Peenemunde. Burning out another couple of acres of colgne wasn't going to make any tangible difference. But actually halting the V weapons for a couple of weeks? That's a huge win.

Where the V1's and 2's anything other than a drain on resources and a bit of a psychological weapon?

In retrospect; no, probably not. But that wasn't at all clear in mid-1943. Used differently - for example, concentrated on the southern ports, or fired east-to-west into the packed Normandy beachhead - they could have been quite effective.

Funnily enough, the V1s and V2s were miserable operational failures for much the same reason that I object to the way BC was used from mid-43 onwards. They had the potential to be effective, but that potential was squandered due to the way they were employed.

[JonS]

The Area Bombing of Germany in World War II: An Operational Research Perspective

M. Kirby and R. Capey

The Journal of the Operational Research Society

Vol. 48, No. 7 (Jul., 1997), pp. 661-677

This paper analyses the origins and implementation of British bombing policy with regard to Nazi Germany from an operational research perspective. It demonstrates that the campaign of area attack on the German civilian population, inaugurated by Bomber Command in 1942, was validated in part by the misapplication of operational research, leading to a strategic air offensive, of limited value both in terms of its impact on the German war economy and on the morale of industrial workers. The article also emphasises that on the two occasions on which Bomber Command's resources were diverted from area attack in favour of precision targets (the anti-U Boat war and Operation Overlord), the views of civilian operational researchers had proved decisive. Finally, the article raises the issue of the effectiveness and independence of Bomber Command's Operational Research Section in the face of the entrenched views on bombing policy held by the Commander-in-Chief, Sir Arthur Harris.

On page 667 is a graph showing that over the last 6 months of 1944 Bomber Command put 89% of all bombs dispatched on sorties within 3 miles of the target in good or moderate weather (Figure 1; Accuracy of night bombing of German Cities (Excluding Berlin). [source: Reproduced in Sebastian Cox (1995) Air Chief Marshall Sir Arthur T. Harris, Despatch on War Operations 23 February 1942 to 5th May 1945, Frank Cass, London].)

[JonS]

The Strategic Bombing of Germany in World War II: Costs and Accomplishments

Kenneth P. Werrell

The Journal of American History

Vol. 73, No. 3 (Dec., 1986), pp. 702-713

Page 706, note 10:

By 1943, 60 percent of Bomber Command's sorties got within three miles of the aiming point, compared with over 20 percent within five miles in 1941. In 1944, the Eighth Air Force got one-half of its bombs dropped by nonvisual means within two miles of the aiming point. Price, Battle over the Reich, 97; "Report by Mr. Butt to Bomber Command on His Examination of Night Photographs," 205; Verrier, Bomber Offensive, 195, 285, 321; Hansell, Air Plan That Defeated Hitler, 252. During the last sixteen months of the war, the two United States strategic air forces (the Eighth and the Fifteenth) got 35 to 40 percent of the bombs they dropped using visual means within one thousand feet of the aiming point. During that period the Eighth dropped about 49 percent of its bombs by visual means and the Fifteenth, 82 percent by visual means. Overall, the two American air forces aimed 56 percent of their bombs by visual means. [Eighth Air Force], "Statistical Summary of Eighth Air Force Operations, European Theater, 17 August 1942-8 May 1945," pp. 20-21, 31, 520.308A (Simpson Historical Re- search Center); [Fifteenth Air Force], "The Statistical Story of the Fifteenth Air Force," pp. 11-12, 670.308D, ibid.

[JonS]

Williamson Murray & Allan Millett. A War to be Won: Fighting the Second World War.

Harvard Press. Cambridge Ma. 2000. Chapter 12; "The combined bomber offensive, 1941-45"

Ellis, J. Brute Force. Chapter 4; “The Bomber Offensive 1940-1945”

[Blackcat]

Thanks for taking the time to point me in rght direction, Mr.S.. I have some reading to do.

[dieseltaylor]

Not directly relevant to the title this article on the film taken at the atom bomb sites and held securely for the next few decades:

http://www.alternet.org/story/151903/how_the_us_hid_shocking_hiroshima_footage_for_decades?page=entire

I am not suggesting firestorms were necessarily better BTW.

[JonS]

Thanks

You're welcome. You might also want to take a look at Murray Williamson's 'Strategy for defeat' which is fairly easy to find second hand, in libraries, or can be downloaded from here. Murray is one of the co-authors of 'A war to be won,' listed above.

An excellent book on the German side, and oft-reccomended over the last couple of years, is Tooze's 'Wages of destruction.' I'd be surprised to see a second hand copy at a reasonable price, and I doubt it's infiltrated more than a few non-specialist libraries yet. The hardback is - or was - hellaciously expensive, but Stackpole have a more reasonably priced edition out. It covers far more than the CBO, but is very good on the effects of the CBO on the German economy.

Both provide a more specifically German perspective than either 'A war to be won' or 'Brute force.'

[sburke]

Slightly, okay more than slightly, off topic from current discussion- I have friend that runs a Japanese antique business in SF. Was visiting last night and snagged a 1939 photo album from the Japan Tourist bureau. As it is for tourism, it is in English. One of the mainy freaky pictures is a Stadium event on Nov 25th at Korakuyen Stadium in Tokyo on the occasion of Italy joining the Comintern pact. The big headline of the two page spread is "Grand March Toward World Peace". Below that the backdrop of the Stadium is the Nazi flag along with Japan's and Italy's.

Interesting thing about the album is how much of it is devoted to the War in China and the Army, but almost nothing on the Navy. Few pictures of biplanes representing Navy training etc. No Carriers, no Battlefleet. Lots of pics from the front and loads of training stuff in Japan of the Army along with military leaders etc.

[LongLeftFlank]

I have friend that runs a Japanese antique business in SF.

You and your friend have read "The Man in the High Castle" by Philip K Dick, right?

[sburke]

Neither. My friend's English is good, but not so much for reading. A lot of things can just get lost so she tends to stick with Murakami and B Yoshimoto. I'll read those but this recommendation looks interesting.