How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

1 hour ago, Holien said:

There have been videos circulating on a whole raft of very poor discipline in the IDF all related to the way they treat Arabs.

People don't realise what level of anti Palestine sentiment is being stirred up and allowed to influence the forces on the ground. The Israeli media and leadership are in effect encouraging the IDF to commit war crimes. Even pop songs...

There are whistle blowers trying to raise concerns but they are deemed enemies of the real Israelis.

As the captain pointed out there are better ways to conduct this whole exercise. The current tragedy could have been avoided by a more careful measured approach but at the moment there is a rush to destroy Gaza before the Western world wakes up.

In the UK our PM just went to Italy for a right wing get together talking about mass migration being used as a weapon to overwhelm Europe. 2 million folk in Gaza will be looking for homes....

Perhaps he should be putting pressure on getting Israel to move slowly and more accurately against Hamas rather than razing Gaza to the ground.

Yes the IDF needs to go much slower. At the same time Israel needs some confidence that if they slow this thing down by 75% they aren't going to be told times up at some random point. 

 

And yes you are 100% correct, Israeli public opinion borderline savage at the moment. No clue what to do about while Netanyahu is pushing from the top.

https://www.politico.eu/article/israeli-tv-sketch-show-brandishes-satire-as-weapon-in-hamas-war/

Concern about Palestinians is uhm limited...

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Yes the IDF needs to go much slower. At the same time Israel needs some confidence that if they slow this thing down by 75% they aren't going to be told times up at some random point. 

 

And yes you are 100% correct, Israeli public opinion borderline savage at the moment. No clue what to do about while Netanyahu is pushing from the top.

https://www.politico.eu/article/israeli-tv-sketch-show-brandishes-satire-as-weapon-in-hamas-war/

Concern about Palestinians is uhm limited...

Talk about p#ssing away the high ground.  IDF looks off the leash right now.  Not sure if it is true or just being amplified - blowing 40-50k buildings all to hell isn’t really helping image-wise.  Again, this plays right into Hamas’ hands.  Hell if I was Hamas I would be engineering a civilian massacre and putting the whole thing up on the internet.  Or better yet, get some western journalists to film the whole thing.

I suspect Israel will keep digging up in this whole thing.  And then wonder why the rest of the world just can’t move past it.

[Holien]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 Or better yet, get some western journalists to film the whole thing.

Good luck finding many journalists left alive in that area, the number of deaths have peaked and even in "safer" areas they have specifically been shot by IDF forces in the recent past. 

The BBC have been trying to show balance by reporting both sides of what is happening in Israel outside Gaza and have had IDF troops intimidation when interviewing Palestinian activists. 

Israeli citizens who have tried to raise their opposition have been falsely arrested and intimidated by the police. 

The courts independence are under attack by the government and before this horrific terrorist attack parts of the IDF were striking in protest against the extreme right wing government. 

The attack has allowed the extremists in the Israeli government to try and use it for their own ends. 

As has been said on other threads if you want to be the good guy you need to do the right things.

[Ales Dvorak]

13 hours ago, Holien said:

Western world wakes up.

In the UK our PM just went to Italy for a right wing get together talking about mass migration being used as a weapon to overwhelm Europe. 2 million folk in Gaza will be looking for homes....

Meloni is already active regarding migrants.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/italy-pm-says-deal-with-albania-migrants-could-serve-blueprint-2023-11-17/

You can only guess which way the migrants will leave Albania.

[The_Capt]

And the hits keep coming:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/israel-faces-new-truce-calls-as-errant-killing-of-captives-adds-to-concern-about-its-wartime-conduct-1.6690976

[Bulletpoint]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hell if I was Hamas I would be engineering a civilian massacre and putting the whole thing up on the internet.

Why would they fake a civilian massacre when Israel is happy doing it all by themselves?

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Why would they fake a civilian massacre when Israel is happy doing it all by themselves?

I was thinking more like setting one up and baiting the IDF into it.  But your point is taken.

[FlemFire]

Quite some tempered outrage for carpet bombing civilians, I must say.

 

[Centurian52]

On 12/13/2023 at 9:47 AM, OBJ said:

Not sure, this maybe outside the scope of this discussion and this forum, but, lets see.

In addition to us as a community having an abiding appreciation for the game/simulation that is Combat Mission, should we, as a community with direct experience of world events over the last 20-70 years, be tying this thread and the one on UK together into a robust discussion of the theories on cycles of human violence? Would we benefit as a community in this forum from a wider discussion and understanding of these theories, their implications, and potential to impact us as a community? What would the discussion mean for Combat Mission, the game, and the community?

Just one reference, there are plenty more from many other sources. If you are interested google, 'theories on historical cycles of global violence.' In a quick read through this one seemed reasonably objective even with a clear 'western' bias:

https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2023-2/vol-28-no-1-september-2023/ukraine-war-and-historical-war-cycles-was-it-to-be-expected-exploring-the-futures-of-the-war-in-ukraine-through-historical-war-cycles/

There are a couple quotes I thought worth including below the graphic.

The take away I got was, at least in this article, the consensus seems to be there will be another global conflagration somewhere between 2025 and 2050.

 

 

'In conclusion, the cyclical nature of violence and conflict is a complex phenomenon that can be attributed to a variety of causes, including economic and political troubles, generational shifts in social psychology, and theories of social cohesion and natural life cycles. While there is no fateful date that can be directly blamed for the outbreak of violence, the similarities between past and present cycles can provide insight into the potential duration and disintegration of civilizations. Through the study of these cycles, we can better understand the history of human conflict and even think about future trends.'

'In the atmosphere of all-encompassing hysteria and bullying, it’s imperative to remind people that life goes on and that staying human is the first and foremost necessity. Any representative of Homo sapiens belongs to humanity first (…), and some national or ethnic entity, way down the list.'

'The real mystery lies in why, despite being aware of the tragedies of our past, we continue to repeat history.'

 

I don't think warfare has a cyclic nature. Humans are infamous for seeing patterns where there are none (which is exactly why we can have so much fun staring at clouds). A lot of historians have written at length about patterns they thought they've seen in warfare, and even proposed causes for those patterns. But those patterns are likely no more real than the patterns we see in clouds. What I've heard from competent statisticians is that when wars break out actually appears to be completely random. The pattern is best explained, not by invoking cycles, but by describing a more or less constant probability that two belligerents will go to war each year (one of my favorite descriptions of this is "every moment Mars rolls the iron dice, and if they come up snake eyes he sends a pair of nations to war"). Of course individual wars have very real, non-random causes. But the scattering of wars across the centuries is completely random. There are clusters, with several wars starting in close proximity to each other, followed by calm periods with relatively few wars. But this is the normal clustering that you expect to see in any truly random process (data points are only evenly spaced apart when they are driven by a non-random process, random processes always have clusters).

While it should be intuitive enough that it takes a non-random process in order to space events evenly apart, people are still often surprised by the clustering that comes with true randomness. An experiment that has been run many times in classrooms is to take two groups of students, tell one to actually flip a coin 100 times in a row and write down the results, and tell the other group to write down the results of an entirely imaginary series of 100 coin flips. Ideally this is set up in such a way that the teacher has no idea which group is which. The challenge is then for the teacher (or someone who doesn't know which group is which) to guess which group actually flipped the coin. It's very easy to tell which group actually flipped the coin when you know what to look for. The group which didn't actually flip the coin will almost never write a cluster of three or more heads or tails in a row. The group that really flipped the coin has an 80% chance of having a run of six or more heads/tails in a row (the probability of a run of seven or more is 54%). This tendency to underestimate the clustering involved in random processes is apparently the psychology behind the Gambler's fallacy. This is the fallacy someone commits when they exclaim "we've had a run of five heads, surely we're due for a tails" or, perhaps more relevant "we've had a long run of peace, so we must be due for a major war" (it's called the "Gambler's fallacy" because gamblers routinely commit it when they think they're due for some good luck after a run of bad luck). The reality is that no matter how many heads have come up in a row so far, there is still a 50/50 chance of the next flip coming up heads again.

WW1 and WW2, the two bloodiest wars in human history, coming within 20 years of each other, are a good example of the clustering that comes with randomness. We weren't at the inevitable point in a cycle where it was time to have humanity's two bloodiest wars. We just had an abysmally unlucky run of die rolls in the first half of the 20th century. There are no cycles.

So, will there be another major war between 2025 and 2050? Possibly. Tensions between China and the US/Taiwan seem to be pretty high right now. Those tensions may ease off without a shot being fired, as happened with NATO and the Warsaw Pact at the end of the Cold War. Or they may ignite into another major war, as happened between France/Russia and Germany/Austria-Hungary at the beginning of the 20th century. If we do get another major war, it won't be because we were due for one in the cycle, but because we had a very unlucky role of the dice.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Centurian52

[OBJ]

Thanks @Centurian52
You are right, statistics was not in my discussion and I thank you for bringing it in. To the best of my knowledge the idea of historical cycles of violence on a global scale is still in the realm of the purely theoretical.

That said I have a personal bias towards enjoying history and modern day prognostications to try to make my own sense of the likely future. Any discernable pattern where data related to special causes can be separated from verifiable random variation of outcomes in a complex process attracts my interest.

More than anything else what got my attention in this article was, 'The cyclical nature of violence and conflict is a complex phenomenon that can be attributed to a variety of causes, including economic and political troubles, generational shifts in social psychology, and theories of social cohesion and natural life cycles. While there is no fateful date that can be directly blamed for the outbreak of violence, the similarities between past and present cycles can provide insight into the potential duration and disintegration of civilizations. Through the study of these cycles, we can better understand the history of human conflict and even think about future trends.'

Speaking only for myself I see a growing number of parallels between our present time and the 1920s and 30s across all the contributing factors listed, the rise of dictators being only one.

As my wife, my children and myself, along with about ~9.8 billion other souls, are all likely to be alive in 2050, I fervently hope the theories are wrong.

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I don't think warfare has a cyclic nature. Humans are infamous for seeing patterns where there are none (which is exactly why we can have so much fun staring at clouds). A lot of historians have written at length about patterns they thought they've seen in warfare, and even proposed causes for those patterns. But those patterns are likely no more real than the patterns we see in clouds. What I've heard from competent statisticians is that when wars break out actually appears to be completely random. The pattern is best explained, not by invoking cycles, but by describing a more or less constant probability that two belligerents will go to war each year (one of my favorite descriptions of this is "every moment Mars rolls the iron dice, and if they come up snake eyes he sends a pair of nations to war"). Of course individual wars have very real, non-random causes. But the scattering of wars across the centuries is completely random. There are clusters, with several wars starting in close proximity to each other, followed by calm periods with relatively few wars. But this is the normal clustering that you expect to see in any truly random process (data points are only evenly spaced apart when they are driven by a non-random process, random processes always have clusters).

While it should be intuitive enough that it takes a non-random process in order to space events evenly apart, people are still often surprised by the clustering that comes with true randomness. An experiment that has been run many times in classrooms is to take two groups of students, tell one to actually flip a coin 100 times in a row and write down the results, and tell the other group to write down the results of an entirely imaginary series of 100 coin flips. Ideally this is set up in such a way that the teacher has no idea which group is which. The challenge is then for the teacher (or someone who doesn't know which group is which) to guess which group actually flipped the coin. It's very easy to tell which group actually flipped the coin when you know what to look for. The group which didn't actually flip the coin will almost never write a cluster of three or more heads or tails in a row. The group that really flipped the coin has an 80% chance of having a run of six or more heads/tails in a row (the probability of a run of seven or more is 54%). This tendency to underestimate the clustering involved in random processes is apparently the psychology behind the Gambler's fallacy. This is the fallacy someone commits when they exclaim "we've had a run of five heads, surely we're due for a tails" or, perhaps more relevant "we've had a long run of peace, so we must be due for a major war" (it's called the "Gambler's fallacy" because gamblers routinely commit it when they think they're due for some good luck after a run of bad luck). The reality is that no matter how many heads have come up in a row so far, there is still a 50/50 chance of the next flip coming up heads again.

WW1 and WW2, the two bloodiest wars in human history, coming within 20 years of each other, are a good example of the clustering that comes with randomness. We weren't at the inevitable point in a cycle where it was time to have humanity's two bloodiest wars. We just had an abysmally unlucky run of die rolls in the first half of the 20th century. There are no cycles.

So, will there be another major war between 2025 and 2050? Possibly. Tensions between China and the US/Taiwan seem to be pretty high right now. Those tensions may ease off without a shot being fired, as happened with NATO and the Warsaw Pact at the end of the Cold War. Or they may ignite into another major war, as happened between France/Russia and Germany/Austria-Hungary at the beginning of the 20th century. If we do get another major war, it won't be because we were due for one in the cycle, but because we had a very unlucky role of the dice.

Not sure I buy into the entirely random phenomenon theory.  In a micro-sense, sure.  It is likely impossible to know a war is going to start in a given year.

But is not war simply a social activity? And as such it could be argued it is a direct result of the forces and pressures that shape social discourse itself.  So on a grander scale, if wars are more or less likely based on social shifts then the next question is “are social tectonic shifts cyclical?”

And then there is scale.  Warfare is always in the background.  Small wars happen all the time and have since before history.  But large scale wars are also governed by political pressures that float on those social ones.  So it is not hard to draw a link to political and social pressure and emergence of war.  The question is “what are they?” And can they be predicted?  

To some extent I think they can.  More in a way of “How many dice is Mars rolling?” As opposed to what is going to come up on a given toss.  The obvious one, with historical precedent, is climate changes.  Or perhaps environmental changes that create dramatic shifts in energy access.  These have and will load the war dice.  And climate changes do tend to come in cycles.  How much correlation (let alone causation) is probably an interesting thing to study.

To my point: if war is entirely random, then social and political discourse would have to be random too, and we know this is not the case.  We go through social cycles based on things like zeitgeist, culture and identity.  Physical shifts in the environment.  Technological impacts.  So to my mind war is not chaotic.  It has patterns.  They are just really hard to see and create reliable models from.  Like economics, war is driven by a host of non-linear and self-aware factors.

Should we keep trying…well yes.  Like any sociological study, war can always be understood better.  And hopefully avoided.

[Ultradave]

On 12/14/2023 at 5:56 PM, Ultradave said:

And then what? When all this is over whatever "over" means, what comes next. There will be no place to live, no hospitals, no clean water, no electricity, and even MsF may rethink having their staff there after their convoy being attacked. Thankfully, they are still there, I believe. 

Quoting myself because I finally remembered to go look again for the account, detailed here in a statement by MsF. There seems no doubt here that they were deliberately targeted, on more than one occasion, and their mission and also evacuation obstructed. 

I'm surprised this did not get more press than it did at the time. Perhaps because when they issued this statement they had carefully investigated it themselves for 2 weeks so it was "old news". 

I'd be very surprised if anyone accused MsF of having any agenda, or harbouring any Hamas sympathizers. They do good work all over the world, often in danger to themselves, and they are CLEARLY recognizable. Everyone knows who they are without ambiguity. 

Well, I'm giving it press, I guess, for what that's worth. Again it falls in the category of making things worse, not better.

https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/latest/msf-convoy-attack-gaza-all-elements-point-israeli-army-responsibility

Dave

[Probus]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

To my point: if war is entirely random, then social and political discourse would have to be random too, and we know this is not the case.  We go through social cycles based on things like zeitgeist, culture and identity.  Physical shifts in the environment.  Technological impacts.  So to my mind war is not chaotic.  It has patterns.  They are just really hard to see and create reliable models from.  Like economics, war is driven by a host of non-linear and self-aware factors.

I agree with you Capt.  I think what sometimes makes wars look cyclical is the fact that the previous war ended 'badly'.  Like the end of WWI setup the conditions for WWII.  The Gulf War 1991 end setup the 2003 war since Saddam was left in power with weird rules of engagement governing the forces over there after the war.  I'm sure there are more examples, but those are a couple that come to mind.

[Probus]

20 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

I'd be very surprised if anyone accused MsF of having any agenda, or harbouring any Hamas sympathizers. They do good work all over the world, often in danger to themselves, and they are CLEARLY recognizable. Everyone knows who they are without ambiguity. 

I'm not giving the IDF a pass on these situations, but the vehicles just look like white vans/cars.  I don't see any markings on them that would indicate they are doctors.  Did the 'red crosses' get burned off the vehicles maybe?

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

I'm not giving the IDF a pass on these situations, but the vehicles just look like white vans/cars.  I don't see any markings on them that would indicate they are doctors.  Did the 'red crosses' get burned off the vehicles maybe?

Note the pictures lower in the article of the NON burned out vehicles with MSF in large red letters on the hoods and the MsF logo and name along the side. Plenty large enough to see. These are recognized worldwide, never change, and the burned out vehicles at the top are that way BECAUSE the IDF came back after the fact and destroyed them... at the clinic MsF runs, which is a known location. 

So no. No passes. No excuses. Note also that MsF took 2 weeks to make sure their accusations were accurate.

Dave

[Probus]

5 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Note the pictures lower in the article of the NON burned out vehicles with MSF in large red letters on the hoods and the MsF logo and name along the side. Plenty large enough to see. These are recognized worldwide, never change, and the burned out vehicles at the top are that way BECAUSE the IDF came back after the fact and destroyed them... at the clinic MsF runs, which is a known location. 

So no. No passes. No excuses. Note also that MsF took 2 weeks to make sure their accusations were accurate.

Dave

I did see those vehicles lower down when I was reading. They look like they were the ones tore up by a bulldozer.

That's horrible and an attempted cover up makes it worse.  I want to hear what the IDF has to say for itself.  War is bad but attacking doctors on purpose... That's just horrible. Why??? And I just don't see the motive.  What could possibly cause them to do that?  That makes Israel look like Hamas, the ones they are supposed to be fighting against.

[The_Capt]

Looks like some sort of vigilantism is sparking up in the West Bank

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-joins-eu-britain-others-decrying-extremist-settler-violence-in-west-bank-1.6692310

[Erwin]

2 hours ago, Probus said:

Like the end of WWI setup the conditions for WWII.

You beat me to it, but yes, I was going to point out that the seeds of WW2 were sown by the results of WW1... ie the growth of massive German resentment and anger that gave the Nazis their momentum.  One could argue that the seeds of Hamas extremism were similarly sown.  However, 1) the Arab nations have done very little to help the situation over the past decades.  Even now they don't want Palestinians in their territory as it suits them politically and religiously to keep the situation bubbling.  2) Regardless of one's grievance, burning people alive, raping and dismembering people, mass killing them in gas ovens etc. is not an acceptable reaction.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Erwin

[kohlenklau]

New #1 hit in Israel.

"חרבו דרבו"

"Harbu Darbu" (also shown as "Charbu Darbu") 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hip-hop-war-anthem-reaches-number-one-in-israel/

I remember listening to "Proud to be an American" in 1991 about a hundred times as the Gulf War started.

EDIT: also this old anthem has been re-released. Like a second national anthem.

I think we are witnessing what I call a Post Pearl Harbor 1941 National Mood. The Oct 7 attack inflicted a Pearl Harbor equivalent level of impact to the mood to go to total war. 

I think this will be very ugly the next few months. 

One other thought I had is that maybe the 1973 Yom Kippur IDF soldiers are the grandfathers or grandmothers of these current younger age IDF soldiers. The lesson of Yom Kippur is the surprise assault against Israel. Imagine your Grandpa went through that and what he might pass on the feeling of that time, as a warning. A defining moment for that older generation. 

Lyrics even have a reference to mom and dad and then grandpa and grandma. It supports that this is something very special to the Israelis. We will see extremes in response.  

Harbu Darbu
1A bunch of ****er rats getting out of the tunnel (la)2
Making Abu Ali3 you idiots, I swear there will be no forgiveness4 (la)
Who do you think you are coming here? Shouting "Palestine for free"?! (la) 5
Tfyyyy6, Sons of Amalek!7 (la)
Whoop bomb squad (la)
Left, right, left, how the whole country from Galilee to Eilat is in uniforms (la) 8
Mail Fighters, female fighters, Duvdevan and Maga"v, Karakal and Bardelas (la) 9
We've brought the entire army against you, and swear there will be no forgiveness10 (la)
Tfyyyy, Sons of Amalek! (la)
Are all the units ready?! (Attention!)
 
Golani11 (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawi12 (One, two shoot!!)
Armored Corps (One, two shoot!!)
Where is Givati13? (One, two shoot!!)
Navy, Air Force (Attention!)
Artillery, Paratroopers (Attention!)
All IDF units are in the mood for Harbu Darbu on your head
 
Golani (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawy (One, two shoot!)
Shiryon (One, two shoot!)
Where is Givati? (One, two shoot!)
All the female soldiers in the air force (Attention!)
Engineering, Intelligence and Kfir14 (Attention!)
All IDF units are coming to do Harbu Darbu on their head, woe woe
 
Get your *** ready because this is the Air Force
Feeling the vibrations all the way to Tel Aviv 15
All the girls are eyeing the soldiers
And even that guy on the news suddenly seems handsome
(Smash)16
They shout "Palestine for free" at me
But for some reason, it sounds like a holiday sale to me 17
Half a minute and the whole country is in uniforms
In the reserve forces, active duty, everyone (One, two shoot!)
For Mom and Dad (Swear) 18
All my buddies in the front battle lines
One for Grandma and Grandpa (Swear) 19
Writing names20 on the bomb shells
For the child in the Israeli village near Gaza (Swear) 21
Upper Galilee22 and the center23 too (Swear)
Everyone is ready for a confrontation. 24
Rabak! Rabak!25
Are all the units ready??!!
(Attention!)
Golani (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawi (One, two shoot!)
Armored Corps (One, two shoot!)
Where is Givati? (One, two shoot!)
Navy, Air Force (Attention!)
Artillery, Paratroopers (Attention!)
All IDF units are in the mood for Harbu Darbu on your head
 
Golani (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawi (One, two shoot!)
Armored Corps (One, two shoot!)
Where is Givati? (One, two shoot!)
All the female soldiers in the air (Attention!)
Engineering, Intelligence and Kfir (Attention!)
All IDF units are coming to do Harbu Darbu on their head
 
Another X on the weapon 26
Because every dog's day will come 27
Wait for the rain28 we will storm down on you, whores29
every dog's day will come
Everyone who planned, supported, executed, everyone who murdered
every dog's day will come
You are in trouble 30
every dog's day will come
Did you hear???! 31
every dog's day will come
Nasrallah 32
every dog's day will come
Mohammed Deif 33
every dog's day will come
Haniya 34
every dog's day will come
Abu Baklawa 35
Every dog's day will come
(Mecha)Bella36 Hadid, Dua Lipa, Mia Khalifa 37
Every dog's day will come
All IDF units are coming to do Harbu Darbu on their head, woe woe
https://lyricstranslate.com/en/harbudarbu-harbu-darbu.html-0

Edited December 19, 2023 by kohlenklau

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, kohlenklau said:

One other thought I had is that maybe the 1973 Yom Kippur IDF soldiers are the grandfathers or grandmothers of these current younger age IDF soldiers. The lesson of Yom Kippur is the surprise assault against Israel. Imagine your Grandpa went through that and what he might pass on the feeling of that time, as a warning. A defining moment for that older generation. 

Yes, just like the Palestinians have grandparents who tell them what happened back in 1948.

And now the next generation will have grandparents that tell them what happened in 2023.

[OBJ]

11 hours ago, kohlenklau said:

New #1 hit in Israel.

"חרבו דרבו"

"Harbu Darbu" (also shown as "Charbu Darbu") 

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hip-hop-war-anthem-reaches-number-one-in-israel/

I remember listening to "Proud to be an American" in 1991 about a hundred times as the Gulf War started.

EDIT: also this old anthem has been re-released. Like a second national anthem.

I think we are witnessing what I call a Post Pearl Harbor 1941 National Mood. The Oct 7 attack inflicted a Pearl Harbor equivalent level of impact to the mood to go to total war. 

I think this will be very ugly the next few months. 

One other thought I had is that maybe the 1973 Yom Kippur IDF soldiers are the grandfathers or grandmothers of these current younger age IDF soldiers. The lesson of Yom Kippur is the surprise assault against Israel. Imagine your Grandpa went through that and what he might pass on the feeling of that time, as a warning. A defining moment for that older generation. 

Lyrics even have a reference to mom and dad and then grandpa and grandma. It supports that this is something very special to the Israelis. We will see extremes in response.  

Harbu Darbu
1A bunch of ****er rats getting out of the tunnel (la)2
Making Abu Ali3 you idiots, I swear there will be no forgiveness4 (la)
Who do you think you are coming here? Shouting "Palestine for free"?! (la) 5
Tfyyyy6, Sons of Amalek!7 (la)
Whoop bomb squad (la)
Left, right, left, how the whole country from Galilee to Eilat is in uniforms (la) 8
Mail Fighters, female fighters, Duvdevan and Maga"v, Karakal and Bardelas (la) 9
We've brought the entire army against you, and swear there will be no forgiveness10 (la)
Tfyyyy, Sons of Amalek! (la)
Are all the units ready?! (Attention!)
 
Golani11 (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawi12 (One, two shoot!!)
Armored Corps (One, two shoot!!)
Where is Givati13? (One, two shoot!!)
Navy, Air Force (Attention!)
Artillery, Paratroopers (Attention!)
All IDF units are in the mood for Harbu Darbu on your head
 
Golani (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawy (One, two shoot!)
Shiryon (One, two shoot!)
Where is Givati? (One, two shoot!)
All the female soldiers in the air force (Attention!)
Engineering, Intelligence and Kfir14 (Attention!)
All IDF units are coming to do Harbu Darbu on their head, woe woe
 
Get your *** ready because this is the Air Force
Feeling the vibrations all the way to Tel Aviv 15
All the girls are eyeing the soldiers
And even that guy on the news suddenly seems handsome
(Smash)16
They shout "Palestine for free" at me
But for some reason, it sounds like a holiday sale to me 17
Half a minute and the whole country is in uniforms
In the reserve forces, active duty, everyone (One, two shoot!)
For Mom and Dad (Swear) 18
All my buddies in the front battle lines
One for Grandma and Grandpa (Swear) 19
Writing names20 on the bomb shells
For the child in the Israeli village near Gaza (Swear) 21
Upper Galilee22 and the center23 too (Swear)
Everyone is ready for a confrontation. 24
Rabak! Rabak!25
Are all the units ready??!!
(Attention!)
Golani (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawi (One, two shoot!)
Armored Corps (One, two shoot!)
Where is Givati? (One, two shoot!)
Navy, Air Force (Attention!)
Artillery, Paratroopers (Attention!)
All IDF units are in the mood for Harbu Darbu on your head
 
Golani (One, two shoot!)
Nachalawi (One, two shoot!)
Armored Corps (One, two shoot!)
Where is Givati? (One, two shoot!)
All the female soldiers in the air (Attention!)
Engineering, Intelligence and Kfir (Attention!)
All IDF units are coming to do Harbu Darbu on their head
 
Another X on the weapon 26
Because every dog's day will come 27
Wait for the rain28 we will storm down on you, whores29
every dog's day will come
Everyone who planned, supported, executed, everyone who murdered
every dog's day will come
You are in trouble 30
every dog's day will come
Did you hear???! 31
every dog's day will come
Nasrallah 32
every dog's day will come
Mohammed Deif 33
every dog's day will come
Haniya 34
every dog's day will come
Abu Baklawa 35
Every dog's day will come
(Mecha)Bella36 Hadid, Dua Lipa, Mia Khalifa 37
Every dog's day will come
All IDF units are coming to do Harbu Darbu on their head, woe woe
https://lyricstranslate.com/en/harbudarbu-harbu-darbu.html-0

I agree with you, @kohlenklau

Just a personal opinion piece, but I think the Israeli military and society's reaction to 7 Oct is much more like US reaction to 7 Dec than 9/11.

My impression of the US Post Pearl Harbor 1941 reaction was one of national military humiliation and irrational national societal panic. In both cases, current Hamas and 1931-1941 Japanese, I think, the adversary's military barbarism made it very easy for the surprised side to dehumanize both the enemy military and civilians. 

[kohlenklau]

54 minutes ago, OBJ said:

My impression of the US Post Pearl Harbor 1941 reaction was one of national military humiliation and irrational national societal panic.

I think I know what you mean but I see it different, the "national mood". The late 1941 panic I think you refer to can be seen in the movie "1941" where southern California or much of the US west coast were concerned for an invasion. National humiliation was not at all what emotion bubbled up. The Japanese surprise attack was seen as a dirty move and stoked a revenge mindset. I am no PhD to describe it but nationwide recruiting stations were flooded with folks wanting to get them back for Pearl Harbor. Hollywood movies always pumped this to keep the nation fired up. I think your current IDF soldier is NOT focused on "Why did we let this 10/7 happen? We are humiliated!" - But more like December 1941 US males lining up outside the recruiting station. Vengeance oriented. Many previous non-interventionists began a new mindset. The national culture had a spike change for songs, slogans, movies to align behind the nation like never before.

Just my thoughts. 

[kohlenklau]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Yes, just like the Palestinians have grandparents who tell them what happened back in 1948.

And now the next generation will have grandparents that tell them what happened in 2023.

I know what you imply. Adult age in 1948 are probably all mostly dead but would be great grandparents if alive. Their story could be that: the world - the UN - had a partition plan but we rejected it and took things in our hands militarily - but we lost. Or maybe another guy remembers his pride in knowing an old Jewish woman was pushed in her wheelchair off the deck of the Achille Laro. 

The future stories better talk of how happy they were at how many baby occupiers were beheaded on 10/7.

The possibly better parallel to the Palestinian suffering is the German grandparents telling how the RAF and USAAF bombed them. But no US or British celebrities were asking for donations. Like now. US colleges didn't erupt with protests siding with the 1941 Japanese.

Shalom baby

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, kohlenklau said:

The future stories better talk of how happy they were at how many baby occupiers were beheaded on 10/7.

Even in the movie Israel showed to journalists, where they combined all the worst footage from Oct. 7, there is not a single child killed, and none by beheading.

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Even in the movie Israel showed to journalists, where they combined all the worst footage from Oct. 7, there is not a single child killed, and none by beheading.

I read the report and it wasn't the worst footage.  They left some out on purpose.  But the footage was pretty bad I'm told.  I've only seen a small fraction of it and those Hamas fighters acted like animals.