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How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?


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8 minutes ago, OBJ said:

@The-Capt, I have a tremendous amount of respect for you, both from what you have said of your personal experience of war here and the opinions you have expressed here.

However, we differ in our view of just how strong the rule of law and world order are around the globe in the present day. I do not think the IDF is concerned they will be prosecuted by the Israeli judicial system for their conduct of the war against Hamas. I believe a perception within the IDF that conduct commensurate with what we have seen since 7 Oct was criminal would have led to different behavior from the start.

For what it is worth the IDF says:

Additionally, as a democratic country committed to the rule of law, Israel subjects the IDF’s military justice system to civilian oversight.

https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/military-advocate-general-s-corps/the-idf-military-justice-system/#:~:text=Additionally%2C as a democratic country,justice system to civilian oversight.

 

The IDF has lived with near continuous conflict with Arab neighbors since 1948. All of that history and experience undoubtedly shaped the IDF we are seeing today. To my knowledge, and I have looked, there are no IDF generals, retired or otherwise, speaking out, publicly or privately, against the way Israel is conducting the war against Hamas.

Oh no argument there from me.  Should the Israeli justice system, who are charged with upholding the LOAC within the jurisdictions of the state of Israel?  Definitely.  Will they? Doubt it.  Or will they translate the LOAC in a biased/skewed manner.  I suspect they will.

Of course the Russian legal system is going to do the exact same thing.  In my books when you are in the same boat with Putin, things are not good.

We keep coming back to a central issue: international laws of armed conflict are getting in the way.  Well that is kinda the point.  They were designed to try and constrain and restrain military power.  They did so for very good reasons.  One cannot point to one nation violating this and make noise, while defending another.

What most people do not realize, sitting at home on the old computer, is just how much our current lifestyles rely on the stability of the global system.  Our wealth, health and freedoms rely on a system that creates and reinforces stability.  The US is not the most powerful nation on earth because some sky-god says so.  The US is the most powerful because of geographical/geopolitical privilege, which provides stability.  It then translated that into a global system that again creates stability.  The LOAC is part of that system.  Right up there with global trade regs, criminality, and diplomacy.

One cannot have a temporary suspension of the rules so that anarchy of states can get a day pass.  These things get broken, sometimes irreversibly.  For example, Iraq 2003 caused enormous damage to the international system.  One could argue that both Russia and China went “nope” when that operation occurred.  Iraq wasn’t even its prosecuted it was its overall justification.  There is a direct line from Iraq 03 to Ukraine 22.  There will be a line to Taiwan in ??, if it happens.

The other myth is that the US can handle it no matter what.  The US is very powerful but it is also very internally fragile.  It also is not nuclear weapon proof.  So the US needs that system likely more than other outer orbit nations.  Example. I once had someone ask “what if the US refused to pay its debt?  Who is going to make them pay?”  Well a global economic collapse would.  US debt is a commodity and making it worthless would buckle the entire system.  Your cellphone would cost more than your car and kiss any pension plan goodbye.  Foreign manufacturing and commodities would collapse.  “Well fine, I will just buy American”.  You may want to review just how much of “American” actually comes from America.  It may be assembled there but the raw resources are pulled in from all over the world…mostly China in reality.

So what?  Stakes here are much higher than Israel or Hamas.  The international system is starting to give and this mess is just one more crack.  Now if you choose to applaud while it does, hey go for it.  But you may want to review just what that system actually does for you and yours before you do. 

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37 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So what?  Stakes here are much higher than Israel or Hamas.  The international system is starting to give and this mess is just one more crack.  Now if you choose to applaud while it does, hey go for it.  But you may want to review just what that system actually does for you and yours before you do. 

I agree with everything in your post, but you are only looking at part of what maintains the international system. If the Oct 7th attack is seen to have been a long term success for Hamas, every unhappy group on the planet is going to take note. What will the reaction be when some bunch of homicidal idiots/fanatics with a "cause"  goes Oct 7th on cruise ship somewhere? The only good outcome here was for the Israelis not to get caught asleep at the switch. I am just trying to point out that there is more than one kind of very negative lesson to be drawn here. And yes all the choices are bad, it doesn't mean some of them are not worse.

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2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I agree with everything in your post, but you are only looking at part of what maintains the international system. If the Oct 7th attack is seen to have been a long term success for Hamas, every unhappy group on the planet is going to take note. What will the reaction be when some bunch of homicidal idiots/fanatics with a "cause"  goes Oct 7th on cruise ship somewhere? The only good outcome here was for the Israelis not to get caught asleep at the switch. I am just trying to point out that there is more than one kind of very negative lesson to be drawn here. And yes all the choices are bad, it doesn't mean some of them are not worse.

C’mon, we did the terrorism thing for the last 20 years.  In fact what the IDF is doing is likely to make things worse, not better.  Hamas knew damned well the reaction it was going to get.  It went medieval to get exactly that.  It did it for a reason.  I am mulling over what to call this “winning by losing” strategy but it is working.  Does anyone think Hamas cares about the Palestinian civilians.  In fact for them the more human suffering the better.

AQ tried the same thing in 01.  ISIL again in ‘14(ish).  Punitive expeditions do not work in the modern era.  No one has demonstrated that shooting their way out of an insurgency is even possible.  Hamas needed a deliberate campaign of isolation and precise killing before 7 Oct.  They needed one after.  Breaking the international system is a Hamas goal because they feel abandoned by it.  Iran wants the system to fail so they can get their nukes and move up the regional pecking order.  So how in gods name is Israel helping them do it make any sense?

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29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Why would flooding the tunnels be a war crime? They are more or less purely military infrastructure.

The only reasonable way to flood to tunnels is to pump seawater in, chances are that'll get into the aquifer and that's er, not great for Gaza's drinking water.

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34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

but you are only looking at part of what maintains the international system. If the Oct 7th attack is seen to have been a long term success for Hamas

I don't' think the Capt was suggesting that the IDF not attack Hamas the conversation is about the choices they are making in the how.

 

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

AQ tried the same thing in 01.  ISIL again in ‘14(ish).  Punitive expeditions do not work in the modern era.  No one has demonstrated that shooting their way out of an insurgency is even possible

Making the powerful occupying force overreact in order to bolster the fighter group's support among the oppressed is a time honoured tradition the IRA was doing it back when I was a kid I'm sure they were not the first.

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1 hour ago, IanL said:

Making the powerful occupying force overreact in order to bolster the fighter group's support among the oppressed is a time honoured tradition the IRA was doing it back when I was a kid I'm sure they were not the first.

My wife and I were having this discussion last night. The current situation is going to create more supporters of Hamas. How can it not? And no doubt that was part of the original goal of Hamas's attack. They aren't dumb. They had to know what the Israeli response would be and went ahead, knowing the consequences would be catastrophic for Gaza's infrastructure and the people living there. And the reaction of Gazans could go two ways. 1) drive supporters to Hamas because "look what the Israelis are doing to us", or 2) ostracize Hamas because "look what you caused"  It always seems to go the #1 option, which is probably what Hamas was/is counting on. 

And then what? When all this is over whatever "over" means, what comes next. There will be no place to live, no hospitals, no clean water, no electricity, and even MsF may rethink having their staff there after their convoy being attacked. Thankfully, they are still there, I believe. 

Dave

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@The_Capt and everyone else please don't misunderstand me. I am a beneficiary of, former uniformed defender of, and proponent of the world order as it evolved in the aftermath of WWII, warts and all, peaceful stability and progress for all being the goal. None of Xi's China, Putin's Russia, the Ayatollah's Iran nor Kim's DRNK appeal to me. There are other regimes purporting to be democracies I don't think I'd enjoy being part of either. I consider myself all too aware of America's internal fragility and dependence on international stability. I cannot see why anyone would applaud the present world order starting to give way, unless they think they see something better for themselves. If they see a better way for all, I hope they will share it widely.

To me all anyone has to do is read any of the books similar to Graham Allison's 'Destined for War' or Kevin Rudd's 'The Avoidable War,' or the novel '2034: A Novel of the Next World War,' by Ackerman and Stavridis, to wish western world leaders had ignored the academics and economists that thought in 2000 if enough Chinese got rich enough they would demand and install a pluralistic liberal western democracy. This thinking led to China being given most favored nation status and invited into the WTO, and then becoming, 'the world's factory,' all the while retaining one party communist rule, a system that selected Xi as President in 2012.

There is also a body of thought on historical cycles of global conflict that might lead one to conclude, 'we're due for another one soon,' 'one' being another global war, soon being 2025-2050. Some might see a chain from Ukraine(Putin)->Gaza(Netanyahu)->Taiwan(Xi)->global war. If you want to put Iraq(Bush) at the head of that chain you can certainly do so. Regardless of where the chain starts it it has the possibility of ending with most of the Global South looking on and hoping most of the fallout stays in the Global North, while grappling with a collapsing or collapsed global economy and levels of human suffering certainly far exceeding those of 1945 given the global population then was 2.3 billion and is now 7.4 billion, 6.6 billion of the 7.4 billion living north of the equator.

It's always hard to know whether as an amateur observer and prognosticator you are being pessimistic, optimistic, or realistic. I strive for the last but often find out I have been one of the other two. In this case I hope I am being overly pessimistic. Given Steve's prescience, we can only hope the next CM title isn't 'CM: Pacific 2030.'

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1 minute ago, OBJ said:

@The_Capt and everyone else please don't misunderstand me. I am a beneficiary of, former uniformed defender of, and proponent of the world order as it evolved in the aftermath of WWII, warts and all, peaceful stability and progress for all being the goal. None of Xi's China, Putin's Russia, the Ayatollah's Iran nor Kim's DRNK appeal to me. There are other regimes purporting to be democracies I don't think I'd enjoy being part of either. I consider myself all too aware of America's internal fragility and dependence on international stability. I cannot see why anyone would applaud the present world order starting to give way, unless they think they see something better for themselves. If they see a better way for all, I hope they will share it widely.

To me all anyone has to do is read any of the books similar to Graham Allison's 'Destined for War' or Kevin Rudd's 'The Avoidable War,' or the novel '2034: A Novel of the Next World War,' by Ackerman and Stavridis, to wish western world leaders had ignored the academics and economists that thought in 2000 if enough Chinese got rich enough they would demand and install a pluralistic liberal western democracy. This thinking led to China being given most favored nation status and invited into the WTO, and then becoming, 'the world's factory,' all the while retaining one party communist rule, a system that selected Xi as President in 2012.

There is also a body of thought on historical cycles of global conflict that might lead one to conclude, 'we're due for another one soon,' 'one' being another global war, soon being 2025-2050. Some might see a chain from Ukraine(Putin)->Gaza(Netanyahu)->Taiwan(Xi)->global war. If you want to put Iraq(Bush) at the head of that chain you can certainly do so. Regardless of where the chain starts it it has the possibility of ending with most of the Global South looking on and hoping most of the fallout stays in the Global North, while grappling with a collapsing or collapsed global economy and levels of human suffering certainly far exceeding those of 1945 given the global population then was 2.3 billion and is now 7.4 billion, 6.6 billion of the 7.4 billion living north of the equator.

It's always hard to know whether as an amateur observer and prognosticator you are being pessimistic, optimistic, or realistic. I strive for the last but often find out I have been one of the other two. In this case I hope I am being overly pessimistic. Given Steve's prescience, we can only hope the next CM title isn't 'CM: Pacific 2030.'

@OBJ  I think I like you.  I have read something about these cycles somewhere else.  Something about "the 4th Turn".  What would be interesting is to take the cycles of Offensive/Defensive primacy and see how they align (or not) with these larger historical cycles.

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Just one reference, there are plenty more from many other sources. If you are interested google, 'theories on historical cycles of global violence.' In a quick read through this one seemed reasonably objective even with a clear 'western' bias:

https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2023-2/vol-28-no-1-september-2023/ukraine-war-and-historical-war-cycles-was-it-to-be-expected-exploring-the-futures-of-the-war-in-ukraine-through-historical-war-cycles/

Good to be liked by a moderator image.png.f135b5322a1b46037199c48ea8a43e2a.png

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13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

@OBJ  I think I like you.  I have read something about these cycles somewhere else.  Something about "the 4th Turn".  What would be interesting is to take the cycles of Offensive/Defensive primacy and see how they align (or not) with these larger historical cycles.

Of course approximately nobody in 1914 really understood that technology had reached a defensive primacy equilibrium that would hold until ~1935. That turned out to be an expensive misunderstanding. 

And yes I realize that the initial German push into France at the beginning of the whole thing very nearly worked. One of histories bigger what ifs.

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On 12/6/2023 at 7:25 PM, Bulletpoint said:

I'm still wondering if the real aim of this war is to expel the civilian population from Gaza.

 

The $64,000 question. Definitely up there with how did Hamas, watched like a hawk from multiple intel agencies with both high-tech sigint and installed humint, manage to execute a long planned and trained operation with attack vectors being... broad daylight open skies and entry points of see-through chainlink fences? The Israelis are pretty explicit about their long-term intentions and they do not suffer from things like consequences or culpability. You add all these things together and you will have quick demystification of the situation at hand.

 

The saddest element of all of this is that the Palestinians, at no point in time, have had any allies in the region. Obviously the Israelis are just eradicating them piece by piece. Anyone with eyes and a decent enough attention span should be able to see this. Genocide must be done in slow-motion lest people get upset -- we live in the daily news hour, after all. Frog boiling is harder to perceive when it is multi-generational. And the Arabs? No interest in the Palestinians either. Even dating back to King Abdullah I, the primary concern of the Palestinians was the value of the land on which they sat. Truly, there is no more isolated a group of people.

 

Btw, international law is not real. Things like the U.N. are not real. You had best realign your perspective on these things under actual realities. These things are written on pieces of paper and they are handled amicably until they are not. There is nothing tangible which holds countries to task, it is a reciprocal system, therefore it breaks very, very easily (that is, when one side stops reciprocating; e.g., literally the first domino). I mean, no offense, but imagine detailing matters of international law when matters of spirituality and religion have vastly more pressures on these conflicts. You're detailing a conflict in which one side will carpet bomb civilians because they can, and the other party will quite literally commit suicide by exploding themselves in car bombs or with vests. The language used to try and stitch together some semblance of international structure does not have the vocabulary, either by semantics and certainly not by idioms or norms or mores, to encompass a battlefield that has such people fighting on it.

 

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8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

C’mon, we did the terrorism thing for the last 20 years.  In fact what the IDF is doing is likely to make things worse, not better.  Hamas knew damned well the reaction it was going to get.  It went medieval to get exactly that.  It did it for a reason.  I am mulling over what to call this “winning by losing” strategy but it is working.  Does anyone think Hamas cares about the Palestinian civilians.  In fact for them the more human suffering the better.

AQ tried the same thing in 01.  ISIL again in ‘14(ish).  Punitive expeditions do not work in the modern era.  No one has demonstrated that shooting their way out of an insurgency is even possible.  Hamas needed a deliberate campaign of isolation and precise killing before 7 Oct.  They needed one after.  Breaking the international system is a Hamas goal because they feel abandoned by it.  Iran wants the system to fail so they can get their nukes and move up the regional pecking order.  So how in gods name is Israel helping them do it make any sense?

Your right about this, after the fact no amount retributive violence can completely fix it. That says a very great deal about what we ought to be doing to be sure it doesn't happen in the first place. 

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7 hours ago, kevinkin replacement said:

Btw, international law is not real. Things like the U.N. are not real. You had best realign your perspective on these things under actual realities. These things are written on pieces of paper and they are handled amicably until they are not. There is nothing tangible which holds countries to task, it is a reciprocal system, therefore it breaks very, very easily (that is, when one side stops reciprocating; e.g., literally the first domino). I mean, no offense, but imagine detailing matters of international law when matters of spirituality and religion have vastly more pressures on these conflicts. You're detailing a conflict in which one side will carpet bomb civilians because they can, and the other party will quite literally commit suicide by exploding themselves in car bombs or with vests. The language used to try and stitch together some semblance of international structure does not have the vocabulary, either by semantics and certainly not by idioms or norms or mores, to encompass a battlefield that has such people fighting on it.

International law is real in the same way money is real. As long as people trust their money works to buy stuff, it has value. But modern money has zero inherent worth. The moment people stop believing, it becomes worthless.

Likewise, the UN is a very real organisation, which provides a forum for nations to discuss and publicly voice their disagreements. It also works well to coordinate peacekeeping and humanitarian aid etc. But it is also a very flawed organisation, with little ability to enforce anything.

When I posted a couple of news stories about UN votes and vetos here on the forum, the aim was not to invoke some kind of mystical supernational power of the UN, but to simply use it as a bellweather of what the current diplomatic situation is. The US and Israel are increasingly isolated, and the bombings are taking a toll on America's reputation.

Maybe this is where we disagree, but I believe soft power is actual power. Hearts and minds are important, and the USA has been sitting on a mountain of goodwill since WW2. They have steadily been squandering that though. And when it's gone, they will find that it's a lot harder to keep an empire going when you need to constantly use force to keep everybody down.

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The U.S. has immense soft power in regards to the internals of the nation itself. People love America. They see it on T.V. and in the movies and want to go there. It's, legitimately, very much the light on the hill for many, and a land of milk and honey from which opportunities abound. Compared to most places on Earth, it is basically Heaven. I mean that seriously. Even compared to places like Europe, USA blows everyone out of the water. 

 

There is another aspect, though, and that is American foreign policy. Everything I just said? When it comes to political action, imagine the exact opposite assessment. The U.S. is lucky that only one faction of hardcore Islamists carry any umbrage with the U.S., because if all of America's 'victims' carried the torch like they do it'd be nothing but terror and mayhem. 

 

I mentioned this in the Ukraine thread, but it's worth mentioning here: in a question of how this world works, many are awaiting the West's decline. After centuries of colonization and/or economic manipulation, they're done with it. The only reason people still play ball with the West is because it is the financial core of the world. As those dynamics change, these nations will depart the Western sphere. Like I've said, the lack of engagement with sanctions on Russia is one of the clearest indicators that the West's soft power has radically declined. You see what's happen in Gaza (rightly) as another strike against the West's virtues. What you probably don't see is this one strike among many. To you it's shocking to see the West eschew all these laws and morals. To others, it's just another day in the world. This one just happened to hit your news feed, that's all.

 

 

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1 hour ago, kevinkin replacement said:

The U.S. has immense soft power in regards to the internals of the nation itself. People love America. They see it on T.V. and in the movies and want to go there. It's, legitimately, very much the light on the hill for many, and a land of milk and honey from which opportunities abound. Compared to most places on Earth, it is basically Heaven. I mean that seriously. Even compared to places like Europe, USA blows everyone out of the water. 

Are you writing from the early 2000s?  Hello!  Please tell my dad to shave my head next time he cuts my hair!

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49 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

No, we're in the world where Israel and Ukraine are equally good.

I think Ukraine has much more in common with the Palestinians though.

Resisting illegal invasion and occupation by a much stronger aggressor, civilians getting indiscriminately bombed and shot, being called Nazis, even animals...

Actually neither Ukraine nor Palestine even really exists, according to Russia/Israel. Ukrainians are just Russians who forgot they are Russians, while Paleistinians are just Arabs who for some reason suddenly began to think they were Palestinians. In both Ukraine/Palestine, this has been called a clear case of genocide by well informed observers.

The difference mainly seems to be that one side is allied with "us", and the other side with "them".

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29 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Are you writing from the early 2000s?  Hello!  Please tell my dad to shave my head next time he cuts my hair!

I travel the world and operate out of Belgium. This is very, very common when interacting with people on the topic of America. It is anecdotal. What is not anecdotal is the massive lines of people waiting to get into America, proving quite verifiably that there is meat on those bones.

 

The hostility toward American foreign policy is harder to measure, but it has moments of clarity I need not expound upon.

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2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think Ukraine has much more in common with the Palestinians though.

Resisting illegal invasion and occupation by a much stronger aggressor, civilians getting indiscriminately bombed and shot, being called Nazis, even animals...

Actually neither Ukraine nor Palestine even really exists, according to Russia/Israel. Ukrainians are just Russians who forgot they are Russians, while Paleistinians are just Arabs who for some reason suddenly began to think they were Palestinians. In both Ukraine/Palestine, this has been called a clear case of genocide by well informed observers.

Being weaker doesn't mean that you're the good guy.

Ukraine is absolutely the "good guy" in the war: it's a sovereign, internationally recognised, democratic state invaded without provocation.

Palestine... frankly, at this time Israel is right: Palestine doesn't exist. A fundamental requirement for being recognised as a state is your state's ability to exercise control over its territory. The PA clearly does not control Gaza, though laying claim to it as part of the Palestinian state.

And if they do claim that they're in control of what goes on in Gaza, well, that'd mean assuming full responsibility for the October 7th massacres. Whatever the case, international law does permit an offended party entering the territory of the offending party under arms to do what is necessary to guarantee their future safety, so I disagree with calling the invasion of Gaza illegal.

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So I am thinking the ROEs within the IDF are somewhat loose right now.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/3-hostages-mistakenly-killed-by-troops-had-been-holding-a-white-flag-israeli-military-official-says-1.6690260

So when talking about incidents that may constitute war criminality…this would be one.  Cannot say if it was or was not but highly suspect until context and other factors are looked into.  Was this just jumpy kids?  Did the IDF take fires from another source while these three were walking out…a honeypot?  Regardless…not good.

Edited by The_Capt
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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So I am thinking the ROEs within the IDF are somewhat loose right now.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/3-hostages-mistakenly-killed-by-troops-had-been-holding-a-white-flag-israeli-military-official-says-1.6690260

So when talking about incidents that may constitute war criminality…this would be one.  Cannot say if it was or was not but highly suspect until context and other factors are looked into.  Was this just jumpy kids?  Did the IDF take fires from another source while these three were walking out…a honeypot?  Regardless…not good.

This might be the screw up that gets them to tighten up and slow down...

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4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So I am thinking the ROEs within the IDF are somewhat loose right now.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/3-hostages-mistakenly-killed-by-troops-had-been-holding-a-white-flag-israeli-military-official-says-1.6690260

So when talking about incidents that may constitute war criminality…this would be one.  Cannot say if it was or was not but highly suspect until context and other factors are looked into.  Was this just jumpy kids?  Did the IDF take fires from another source while these three were walking out…a honeypot?  Regardless…not good.

Definitely not good. Just another heart breaking tragedy, but this one with such painful irony.

Probably just me, but it's not clear if this is primarily an ROE issue or maybe more as you point out a unit discipline issue. The accounts I read say IDF shot two of three dead when first encountered with makeshift white flag, the third retreated, yelled surrender language in Hebrew, and was pursued and shot dead.

Pure speculation on my part, personal response to the micro tragedy this is, but for the Israelis maybe easiest and quickest to get this out of the news cycle by explaining this as an ROE violation, which it certainly would be as shooting escaped hostages is probably outside their ROE, than admitting the condition of Israeli reserve infantry units after 40-50 days of sustained urban warfare, especially after what I understand to be the intentional hostage baited ambush which killed 9 IDF members, including a COL and a LTC.

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There have been videos circulating on a whole raft of very poor discipline in the IDF all related to the way they treat Arabs.

People don't realise what level of anti Palestine sentiment is being stirred up and allowed to influence the forces on the ground. The Israeli media and leadership are in effect encouraging the IDF to commit war crimes. Even pop songs...

There are whistle blowers trying to raise concerns but they are deemed enemies of the real Israelis.

As the captain pointed out there are better ways to conduct this whole exercise. The current tragedy could have been avoided by a more careful measured approach but at the moment there is a rush to destroy Gaza before the Western world wakes up.

In the UK our PM just went to Italy for a right wing get together talking about mass migration being used as a weapon to overwhelm Europe. 2 million folk in Gaza will be looking for homes....

Perhaps he should be putting pressure on getting Israel to move slowly and more accurately against Hamas rather than razing Gaza to the ground.

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