How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?

[Probus]

 

[Anthony P.]

20 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Arab oppression or European oppression? The funny thing is that while you grant the Israeli people a right to a nation state (which I don't deny; as a matter of fact it's a done deal), you don't allow the Palestinians the same right.

Anyway I don't like to repeat myself, see my previous post.

 

The Arabs spent nearly one and a half millenia subjecting the Jews with extreme violence as a matter of sheer routine.

The British barely even spent 25 years in the Palestine Mandate, oppressing the Jews at least as much as the Arabs.

 

And the Palestinians received repeated offers of a nation state, starting with the 1947 partition plan. The reply was the same every time: "we get all of it; you all die and disappear".

Edited January 3 by Anthony P.

[Lethaface]

8 minutes ago, Probus said:

If what this admittedly armchair historian points out is that the Palestinians were offered states at different times and for different reasons they said not acceptable.

So they are still at loggerheads.

I know about the history, imo it isn't 'strange' they refused the specific offers thar were made at the times they were made.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Erwin said:

This may have something to do with an examination of who over the pat decade or two has been responsible for most of the suicide bombings, beheadings on video, burning, drowning and burying people alive etc.

Sure.  Of course from their point of view they look at who has done all the Pred shoots and airstrikes.  I mean you did read my post about roughly 216k civilians killed by coalition action in Iraq?  I am not sure why people forget that all war is personal.  People do not forget a US or allied warplane killing a family member.  So they support what from their point of view is a resistance.  Low tech and brutal because that is what they have to push back with and make a splash.  We drop JDAMs and the cycle continues.

Ok, time for COIN/CT 101…probably past time.  How this war should be fought in three steps:

1.  Isolate Hamas.  First from international support and then from its own people.  Do not under any circumstances drive support into their arms.  We have a lot of power use it to ensure Hamas loses support, not gain it.

2. Map and erode the networks.  Long and intelligence heavy this work is looking at Hamas (or any VEO really) as a loose network with nodes and connectors.  Target those with precision.  This last action on hitting Hamas leadership in Lebanon sends a message and erodes the network.  Start conductive, end inductive.  By this I mean mature to the point you are getting them to shoot at each other - it is actually pretty easy once you figure it out.  

3. Break the narrative.  Hamas has axes to grind.  Weaken that.  Take them away if you can.  Or at least convince people that Hamas ain’t got the good to deliver change.  This is how ISIL effectively died and how the IRA morphed to the political table.  This line is highly political and needs to be managed by political operatives.

All that takes nuance, imagination and a lot of hard intel work.  It is fought online and in cafes around the world.  It can and will be violent, but back of the head in an ally violent not dropping building like rank amateurs.  It takes time and patience, like fly fishing.  But we have numerous examples of it working.  Terror groups tend to wane and lose traction unless they can stay on the front pages.  Then they split/fragment to the point they can be managed over the long term.  We did this with AQ.  It has been done with a lot of major terror groups.

Israel is doing just about the worst strategy one can pursue in this sort of thing.  Frankly the US initially did too.  It was not Iraq or Afghanistan that won GWOT it was 20 years of hard inter-agency work and quiet actions all over the world.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Anthony P. said:

The Arabs spent nearly one and a half millenia subjecting the Jews with extreme violence as a matter of sheer routine.

Ok, you gotta back that one up.  As I recall the Arab world was pretty damned tolerant of religions “of the book” so long as they paid their taxes and stayed in their lane.  Are are we talking Babylon here?

Compared to pogroms in Europe?

Edit:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Arab_world

Looks more like a modern 20th century phenomenon with the Arab world.  I am really not sure where 500 years is coming from.  Unless you meant Europe?

Edited January 3 by The_Capt

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, Anthony P. said:

 

The Arabs spent nearly one and a half millenia subjecting the Jews with extreme violence as a matter of sheer routine.

The British barely even spent 25 years in the Palestine Mandate, oppressing the Jews at least as much as the Arabs.

 

And the Palestinians received repeated offers of a nation state, starting with the 1947 partition plan. The reply was the same every time: "we get all of it; you all die and disappear".

Fwiw you are pushing propaganda as the absolute truth. Even Jewish acquainces who fought with the Haganah (and weren't welcome in Britain until very recently for that reason), which I have spoken to in person, don't support your version of the facts. 

Ciao 

[Lethaface]

Just now, The_Capt said:

Ok, you gotta back that one up.  As I recall the Arab world was pretty damned tolerant of religions “of the book” so long as they paid their taxes and stayed in their lane.  Are are we talking Babylon here?

Compared to pogroms in Europe?

Yeah I've never put someone on my ignore list but for self protection I might do soon for him.

[Anthony P.]

18 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Fwiw you are pushing propaganda as the absolute truth. Even Jewish acquainces who fought with the Haganah (and weren't welcome in Britain until very recently for that reason), which I have spoken to in person, don't support your version of the facts.

In my book, "you are second class non-citizens with no rights, and we reserve the rights of the majority population to murder you en masse without consequence if you: act uppity; speak of having rights; fail to convert on demand; there's a plague or other misfortune; become too successful for your station; or they just feel like it" fits the definition of living under a terrifically violent subjugation. The notion that the Arabs were tolerant because they murdered their Jewish communities less regularly than Medieval Europe did isn't a convincing or very moral argument.

I've not seen much of an argument coming from you so far, just "this book explains why the West is to blame [frankly a tiresome reductionist trope]" and "your argument is incorrect" without expanding on what you consider factually inaccurate. I'd be glad to debate actual arguments, but currently I'm not too sure what the difference would be if you put me on your ignore list.

[kohlenklau]

I have just started to read "GENESIS 1948: The First Arab-Israeli War" by Dan Kurzman.

830 pages with footnotes and index.

I bought it to help me make my CMFI PALESTINE 1948 mod. 

He said he interviewed lots of Arab participants (of 1948) right before the 1967 war. 

I hope it has a fair and balanced perspective. 

I tend to skip ahead and then back so I already read a sad part where the Jews had 2 kidnapped British sergeants. Gruesome stuff. I can see maybe why the British didn't want these old Haganah guys back in the UK.

[Lethaface]

52 minutes ago, Anthony P. said:

In my book, "you are second class non-citizens with no rights, and we reserve the rights of the majority population to murder you en masse without consequence if you: act uppity; speak of having rights; fail to convert on demand; there's a plague or other misfortune; become too successful for your station; or they just feel like it" fits the definition of living under a terrifically violent subjugation. The notion that the Arabs were tolerant because they murdered their Jewish communities less regularly than Medieval Europe did isn't a convincing or very moral argument.

I've not seen much of an argument coming from you so far, just "this book explains why the West is to blame [frankly a tiresome reductionist trope]" and "your argument is incorrect" without expanding on what you consider factually inaccurate. I'd be glad to debate actual arguments, but currently I'm not too sure what the difference would be if you put me on your ignore list.

I haven't yet but I guess don't bother, as you are clearly not interested in other perspectives than those you uphold as absolute truths as far as I'm concerned.

PS if you are it's better for PM I'd guess.

Edited January 3 by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

16 minutes ago, kohlenklau said:

I have just started to read "GENESIS 1948: The First Arab-Israeli War" by Dan Kurzman.

830 pages with footnotes and index.

I bought it to help me make my CMFI PALESTINE 1948 mod. 

He said he interviewed lots of Arab participants (of 1948) right before the 1967 war. 

I hope it has a fair and balanced perspective. 

I tend to skip ahead and then back so I already read a sad part where the Jews had 2 kidnapped British sergeants. Gruesome stuff. I can see maybe why the British didn't want these old Haganah guys back in the UK.

Don't know that book but yes 'terrorist' tactics were common on all sides at that time. 

[Lethaface]

20 minutes ago, kohlenklau said:

I have just started to read "GENESIS 1948: The First Arab-Israeli War" by Dan Kurzman.

830 pages with footnotes and index.

I bought it to help me make my CMFI PALESTINE 1948 mod. 

He said he interviewed lots of Arab participants (of 1948) right before the 1967 war. 

I hope it has a fair and balanced perspective. 

I tend to skip ahead and then back so I already read a sad part where the Jews had 2 kidnapped British sergeants. Gruesome stuff. I can see maybe why the British didn't want these old Haganah guys back in the UK.

Fwiw watch (part) of the interview I posted earlier. I think it's a good one for opening perspective.

[kohlenklau]

9 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

watch (part) of the interview I posted earlier.

I did check it out. Thanks. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Anthony P. said:

The notion that the Arabs were tolerant because they murdered their Jewish communities less regularly than Medieval Europe did isn't a convincing or very moral argument.

 

Well no but frankly if we are going by body count Israel should be in on Ukraine by some of this logic. (https://books.openedition.org/obp/10953?lang=en).

Jews were actually protected citizens under Islamic Law:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhimmi

There were violations.  For example in North Africa in and around 1100 AD but when looking at the entire Arab world they treated their Jewish citizens much better than anything they were getting in Europe.  Second class citizens to be sure but Jews were lower class citizens - if they were granted citizenship at all - everywhere for centuries.  Why single out the Arabs who by comparison fairly tolerant and actually had legal protections in place?

I am at a loss as to the theory here.  Arabs murdered Jews “for 500 years” (which is not really true) so…what?  Israel has a right to exist as a state, there is no debating that fact.  But what does that or alleged, and frankly inflated, abuses by the Arab world going back to the Roman Empire have to do with anything?  Or heavy handed prosecution of a IDF military campaign in Gaza in 2023-24?

I mean if we are in a crusade for 2000 years of injustices that line of injuries parties is going to get pretty damned long.  And I think we all came to agreement that historical “guilt and shame” is not healthy for any party moving forward.

Dont get me wrong, the Israelis should not be subject to marching into the sea as the only option.  I think their nuclear weapon stockpile put paid to that some time ago.  However, it should not be the only option left to Palestinians either.

Edited January 3 by The_Capt

[Lethaface]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well no but frankly if we are going by body count Israel should be in on Ukraine by some of this logic. (https://books.openedition.org/obp/10953?lang=en).

Jews were actually protected citizens under Islamic Law:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dhimmi

There were violations.  For example in North Africa in and around 1100 AD but when looking at the entire Arab world they treated their Jewish citizens much better than anything they were getting in Europe.  Second class citizens to be sure but Jews were lower class citizens - if they were granted citizenship at all - everywhere for centuries.  Why single out the Arabs who by comparison fairly tolerant and actually had legal protections in place?

I am at a loss as to the theory here.  Arabs murdered Jews “for 500 years” (which is not really true) so…what?  Israel has a right to exist as a state, there is no debating that fact.  But what does that or alleged, and frankly inflated, abuses by the Arab world going back to the Roman Empire have to do with anything?  Or heavy handed prosecution of a IDF military campaign in Gaza in 2023-24?

I mean if we are in a crusade for 2000 years of injustices that line of injuries parties is going to get pretty damned long.  And I think we all came to agreement that historical “guilt and shame” is not healthy for any party moving forward.

Dont get me wrong, the Israelis should not be subject to marching into the sea as the only option.  I think their nuclear weapon stockpile put paid to that some time ago.  However, it should not be the only option left to Palestinians either.

Fwiw Morocco protected it's Jews during WW2 and there's still much goodwill between a large part of both populations. 

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Well no but frankly if we are going by body count Israel should be in on Ukraine by some of this

It seems as if you interpret Anthony P.'s points as a justification for the current war or for the death of innocent Palestinian civilians, is that correct or am I completely mistake?

I did not get this impression from him. The thread was subject to a little deluge of antisemitic and antizionist (the latter usually just a fig leaf for the former) talking points, and Anthony P. brought a different perspective into this, which I didnt consider unrealistic.

To be clear when it comes to little old me, the organisations who idolize that their predecessors translated and spread Mein Kampf in the Arabic world, blocked escape routes for Jews from Europe during WW2, organized volunteers for the SS Foreign Legion, invited Germany to send Totenkopf detachments to Palestine and whose most popular and moderate political leaders of the last decades consider SS members Palestinian folk heroes and wrote their graduation theses about why the Holocaust was a big hoax - these are not the poor oppressed victims in this story.

They are vile and corrupt proponents of racial and religious conflict, mainly to the detriment of the very people they are supposed to represent.

And it should also be clear, even if 100% of non-Israeli Muslim Palestinians idolized the recent brutal and immoral history of their own national movements, if they considered the multiple antisemitic progroms and wars by Muslim countries and the decades long terror campaign against Israel a point of pride, if every single Palestinian did that instead of just the ca. 50% to 70% that actually seem to do this nowadays when surveyed (possibly under duress)... even if that was the case, and it isn’t the case that it's 100%, that would not justify warcrimes by the IDF against non-Israeli Palestinians in Gaza or elsewhere. 

And also, nothing of that makes the ruling far-right Israeli coalition look better. These are simply separate issues that don't balance out.

The IDF is fighting an asymmetric conflict with multiple proxy forces and terror groups, and what's most important for a wargaming forum, as far as the information is available, is how they do it, especially at a tactical level and operational level, and what conclusions could be formed from that for military theory and practice and also for CM as a gamified simulation.

[The_Capt]

45 minutes ago, Carolus said:

It seems as if you interpret Anthony P.'s points as a justification for the current war or for the death of innocent Palestinian civilians, is that correct or am I completely mistake?

I did not get this impression from him. The thread was subject to a little deluge of antisemitic and antizionist (the latter usually just a fig leaf for the former) talking points, and Anthony P. brought a different perspective into this, which I didnt consider unrealistic.

I honestly am not really understanding what AP is going on about.  I mean we can all accept that there have been sins and atrocities agains the Jewish people perpetrated by various actors since the Egyptians.  They have been an oppressed people…it is a pretty large club.

I, for one, have not seen “anti-semstic or antizionist” talking points.  To question the Israeli treatment of Palestinians or its handling of the situation is not anti-Semitic any more than pointing out excessive behaviours in the IDF.  I am seeing many point of view blaming one side or the other.

And to be absolutely fair, I have not seen egregious anti-Arab sentiment. Some biases perhaps but compared to some comments on this forum after 9/11 the conversation has been remarkably restrained.  I did ask if we were holding onto anti-Arab grudges which could border on racism based in our western experience.  I don’t think anyone here really does but we should likely remain on guard…I know I have to.

I think it fair to discuss the political context in which this war is happening.  In fact it is critical in an asymmetrical conflict of this type.  I have no idea what the politic solution for this irreconcilable collision between Israelis and Palestinians is but I am fairly certain that I am not seeing it every morning with my coffee right now.

But perhaps we have beat this horse to death.  And let’s face it, we are not really going to solve anything.  As to the military picture, well I have not really seen anything new.  UAS and tunnels are interesting but not fundamentally altering.  The information space is likely where the most interesting stuff is happening as the battle for the narrative continues.  Beyond that, I am interested in just how a complete security failure before 7 Oct could happen, I do not think we have seen the bottom of this yet.

As to the rest.  A grinding urban fight with civilians trapped in it.  Why has no one jacked up Egypt in all this?  I mean 2 million people trapped in a shrinking box but Egypt won’t open its borders?  My own biases from travelling and working in these parts of the world has to be kept in check.  But watching an Arab nation (and Egypt is Arab as they come, no matter what people say about ‘ancient lineage’) let that sort of humanitarian crisis unfold on their doorstep boggles the mind.

[OBJ]

I wonder what these guys will be doing...

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/01/02/iran-sends-warship-red-sea-after-us-sinks-houthi-boats.html

Iran dispatched a warship to the Red Sea after the U.S. Navy destroyed three Houthi boats, a move that risks ratcheting up tensions and complicates Washington’s goal of securing a waterway that’s vital to global trade.

The Alborz destroyer traversed the Bab El-Mandeb strait, a narrow choke point between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, on Monday, Iranian state media said without providing further information on the vessel’s mission.

[Anthony P.]

15 hours ago, Lethaface said:

I haven't yet but I guess don't bother, as you are clearly not interested in other perspectives than those you uphold as absolute truths as far as I'm concerned.

I can only reiterate, I'm yet to see any actual perspective from you to even debate. What other perspectives can you expect me to consider if none are presented, bar "read this book"?

 

13 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Fwiw Morocco protected it's Jews during WW2 and there's still much goodwill between a large part of both populations. 

Morocco did not protect their Jews during the war. It was a French protectorate with no say on the matter. To his personal credit, Mohammed V was openly averse to anti-Jewish persecution but there's no historical concensus on him actually taking concrete steps to protect the Moroccan Jews.

As for actual Moroccans, Casablanca saw a pogrom in response to the Allied invasion in 1942, followed by repeated violent attacks on its Jewish communities which were stopped not by Moroccans, but by French security forces. Independence saw Jews legally classed as second class citizens with limited rights.

~99,3% of the Moroccan Jews have left the country since 1948, so I wouldn't exactly agree that there's "goodwill".

[kohlenklau]

26 minutes ago, OBJ said:

I wonder what these guys will be doing...

Iranian Destroyer.

The Red Sea is always needing new scuba diving sites!

 

[Anthony P.]

27 minutes ago, OBJ said:

I wonder what these guys will be doing...

Presumably hoping that they're not about to cause and/or experience Praying Mantis 2.0?

[BFCElvis]

The thread has turned into what I initially feared it would. The Battlefront forums are not the place for this. 

I was convinced to keep it open as a similar military exploration thread, like the Ukraine thread. But that has stopped.

 

Shutting it down.