OBJ

re naval drones, US 'Replicator' initiative. 'Hellscape' thinking sounds encouraging. https://news.usni.org/2024/02/14/navy-will-stand-up-lethal-drone-unit-later-this-year-first-replicator-usvs-picked "The second squadron will focus on small USVs, building on the medium and large USVs that the Unmanned Surface Vessel Division ONE (USVDIV-1) has been experimenting with for the last two years, USNI News understands. Last year, the Navy experimented with its medium and large USVs to operationalize test platforms with real units as the Pacific Fleet refines concepts for using unmanned systems. Those concepts are set to inform the emerging “hellscape” concept that would use swarms of unmanned platforms to thwart a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, USNI News previously reported."

Sorry, know this takes discussion in a new direction that is way above the CM level, still, Nukes in space, Trump NATO fallout. Direct relevance to this thread, would Putin attack Ukraine or any NATO country in the future if the country being attacked had nuclear weapons? Apparently the Germans are asking this question for themselves. EU disunity and German unification agreements are listed as the current biggest obstacles. https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rethinks-bundeswehr-and-deterrence/a-68248353 As US resolve and reliability come into ever greater question, the thinking here appears to be if Iran and North Korea can/do have them, Israel, India and Pakistan do have them, why not the rest of the west, nuclear proliferation being the new deterrence? Note South Korea and Japan are asking this question also, albeit re deterring China/North Korea. Article also includes interesting chart on NATO defense spending 2014-2022 compared to 2023 by country. Very interested in all opinions, but especially those in European countries.

Point, well made.

I agree on Putin. As an aside my knowledge of Shakespeare is abysmal. I had to look this up "Ignorance is the curse of God; knowledge is the wing wherewith we fly to heaven"

I like it, thought provoking without being declarative. Given your knowledge and references to the 'ancient' period, I'd be interested if you see human nature as the one thing not changed across the millennia, and therefore politics, and therefore wars and reasons for wars. "We see, therefore, that War is not merely a political act, but also a real political instrument, a continuation of political commerce,"

Well, I can't claim to be an expert in military history, world or any one nation's, or anyone's generals, but I do have the sense wars 'won' through exhaustion, tend to start up again as soon as one side or the other decides it is no longer exhausted. In the era of mobilized nation states, a ceasefire negotiated peace tends to leave the issues that caused the war in the first place unresolved. On the other hand, wars in which one side is utterly devastated, occupied and dictated a new form of government, those wars tend to be 'over,' the issues causing them being permanently removed. So, if current fighting in Ukraine stops with a cease fire, possibly a negotiated 'peace,' show of hands, who here thinks that's the end of it, IF, what's left of Ukraine isn't brought into NATO and protected by article 5 before Russia reconstitutes? Do diametrically opposed political ideologies typically peacefully coexist for centuries, especially if they share a border? Is it worth differentiating between great power wars, minor power wars, minor power participation in great power wars and wars followed by a century or more in which the entire world geopolitical and technological situation changed? Did the Allies really win WWI if they had to fight Germany/Axis in a much more destructive war 20 years later? If NATO service chiefs are saying they need to be ready to fight Russia in 3-6 years, did the west really win the Cold War? Can a Cold War really be in the same conversation with a shooting war? Is deterrence the same as war? Is economic collapse without war the same as in a war? I don't know but would guess the experts on any major power's national military history and past Generals are people having spent their professional lives (30+ years) making a career of it, in or out of uniform. Again, I am no expert. I am interested in other's thoughts on above in relation to Ukraine.

I guess we'll see where European support goes. I am disgusted by my (US) country's conservative politics, not what I signed up for. I am left with the hope Europeans can hold things together until US national politics comes more into balance, which I fervently hope is this year. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-is-europe-starting-to-change-its-strategy/a-68188384

Zelenskyy - Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/02/05/ukraines-president-confirms-hes-thinking-about-dismissing-countrys-military-chief.html KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was weighing a possible dismissal of the country's top military officer, a prospect that has shocked the nation fighting Russia's invasion and worried Kyiv's Western allies. Asked whether he was considering the ouster of Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Zelenskyy told Italian RAI TV in an interview released late Sunday that he was thinking about it as part of a broader issue of setting the country's path. He said that “a reset, a new beginning is necessary,” and it's "not about a single person but about the direction of the country’s leadership.” "I’m thinking about this replacement, but you can’t say here we replaced a single person,” Zelenskyy said. “When we talk about this, I mean a replacement of a series of state leaders, not just in a single sector like the military. If we want to win we must all push in the same direction, convinced of victory, we cannot be discouraged, let our arms fall, we must have the right positive energy.” Zelenskyy's comments marked his first confirmation that he was mulling to fire the widely popular general, a possibility that caused an uproar in Ukraine and delighted the Kremlin as the war approaches its second anniversary. According to Ukrainian and Western media reports, Zelenskyy last week offered Zaluzhnyi to resign, but the general refused. Zaluzhnyi hasn’t commented on the issue. The tensions between the president and Zaluznyi have been rising as the country grapples with dire ammunition and personnel shortages following a failed summer counteroffensive. The need for a broad mobilization to fill the ranks has reportedly been one of the areas of disagreement. Zelenskyy said at the end of last year that he had turned down the military’s request to mobilize up to 500,000 people, demanding more details about how it would be organized and paid for. Ukrainska Pravda reported Monday that Zelenskyy was allegedly considering the removal of General Staff Chief Serhii Shaptala along with Zaluzhnyi. Zaluzhnyi on Monday congratulated Shaptala on his birthday and posted a picture of them together on Facebook. “It will still be very difficult for us, but we will definitely never be ashamed,” Zaluzhnyi wrote. A rift between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy first broke into the open last fall when the general acknowledged in an interview with The Economist that the fighting with Russia had stalemated. The president strongly denied that was the case. Ukraine desperately needs more Western military assistance as the Russian forces are pressing in many directions of the 1,500-kilometer (900-mile) frontline, but an aid package has been blocked in the U.S. Congress. Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal could fuel uncertainty among Western allies. Russia has rejoiced at the prospect, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying that the talk about Zaluzhnyi's dismissal exposed rifts in the Ukrainian leadership.

Sea drones, learning from the Ukrainians to be ready to beat the Chinese. "The program was inspired in part by the low-cost lethal surface drones developed by Ukraine and built with off-the-shelf components, USNI News understands." See US 'Replicator' initiative. https://news.usni.org/2024/01/30/pentagon-puts-out-call-for-swarming-attack-drones-that-could-blunt-a-taiwan-invasion Russian convicts military contracts, longer, less lenient, automatically 'renew' when they conclude, result of unhappy RA non-convicts and relatives. Apparently in the convict 'Storm V' units attrition is high and morale is low. Russian tradition of frontline penal units continues. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68140873

Oct 23 CIA ties going back to 2014, direct intell support leading to string of assassinations in Russia https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/23/ukraine-cia-shadow-war-russia/

Think you might want to talk to somebody 'bout that ...and the people here can't help.

Don't know if either below will be of interest to you or not, both are higher than tactical discussions. The second one may already have been referenced by the CMCW designers. Into the 80s in Mech Bns Pre-Bradley/still 113 based, the MECH Bn/TF TOW company was a support and admin HQ. TOW Platoons were attached to Mech Companies to give the Mech Cos. long range AT fires, just as you posit. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA384122.pdf chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://history.army.mil/html/books/069/69-4-1/cmhPub_69-4-1.pdf

Ooops, OK, got to this after my previous post.

Kurzweil symbiosis - Had to look this up too, nice to be part of a community that is both broadly and deeply educated. Relevance to this thread is this maybe where both Ukrainian and Russian staff work is headed. Emphasis added. https://www.thekurzweillibrary.com/man-computer-symbiosis Man-computer symbiosis is an expected development in cooperative interaction between men and electronic computers. It will involve very close coupling between the human and the electronic members of the partnership. The main aims are 1) to let computers facilitate formulative thinking as they now facilitate the solution of formulated problems, and 2) to enable men and computers to cooperate in making decisions and controlling complex situations without inflexible dependence on predetermined programs. In the anticipated symbiotic partnership, men will set the goals, formulate the hypotheses, determine the criteria, and perform the evaluations. Computing machines will do the routinizable work that must be done to prepare the way for insights and decisions in technical and scientific thinking.

Thanks for this Hapless. https://community.battlefront.com/topic/140931-how-hot-is-ukraine-gonna-get/?do=findComment&comment=2025149 It took me a while but I got it all in and enjoyed it. Silly me, I hadn't run across Antal before. If I had a criticism, and I always do, just part of who I am, at command level he offers a lot of what to do without much how to do. For instance, his thoughts on CP survivability in major power war all seem spot on, but it's all focused on survivability and there's little detail on how to maintain and sustain same level of unit C4ISR as in the old way while being more survivable in the new way.

I think you have me Anthony. When it first came out I tried placing the end waypoint on the spot I wanted my vehicles to be hull down to, and my tanks just kept moving, with very unpleasant results, so I stopped using it. Thanks to you and others I can clearly see I need to go back to it and use it in conjunction with an area/enemy unit target command.

'fraid so, 'if not us, then who?'

If you're referring to Yuval Noah Harari, I've read three of his works and thoroughly enjoyed all three, definitely a world class thinker and prognosticator. Highly recommended for those with an interest in such things, has the genius of presenting complex ideas in understandable ways. https://www.amazon.com/Sapiens-Humankind-Yuval-Noah-Harari/dp/0062316095 https://www.amazon.com/Homo-Deus-Brief-History-Tomorrow/dp/0062464310 https://www.amazon.com/Lessons-21st-Century-Yuval-Harari/dp/0525512179 "In the book Sapiens, Yuval Noah Harari talks about two types of chaotic systems: Level 1 = does not react to predictions about it, e.g. the weather. Level 2 = reacts to predictions about it, e.g. markets, politics." As I recall his two big worries were/are biotech and AI.

Well...he was Scotch..tish

Just for the uninitiated, had to look this up: Chaotic systems come in two shapes. Level one chaos is chaos that does not react to predictions about it. The weather, for example, is a level one chaotic system... Level two chaos is chaos that reacts to predictions about it, and therefore can never be predicted. Markets, for example, are a level two chaotic system.

I agree. Below repetitive I know, still...relevant to offensive autonomous AI in the military In the West we'll have to get through the politicians, you know we will. They: 1. Heard Chat GPT lies 2. Heard Chat GPT makes s**t up 3. Heard Geoffrey Hinton and other AI scientific heads say AI could end humanity 3. Went to see Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 and, at least in the US congress, only 1 in 6 has any military experience let lone the kind of military experience that would be useful in understanding the technology's military applications Particularly difficult as Dan says if the technology creators can't explain/prove cause and effect.

Point

I haven't read them all but did appreciate the Cheradenine Zakalwe character in 'Use of Weapons,' if a little dark at end, and Iain Banks in general. I suppose one point is that any society that considers itself ideal will be compelled to bring it's enlightenment to societies it judges as less ideal, especially if less ideal is judged 'barbaric', using means and methods long outlawed within the ideal society.

By Foundation you mean predictive history? Fictional Mathematician Hari Seldon's theory of psychohistory, a new and effective mathematics of sociology. Using statistical laws of mass action, it can predict the future of large populations.

Reading the manual experts suggest using '2.' For those of us that haven't had any luck, or got surprised from another direction, maybe a slight refinement of what others have said: 1. Hunt command to eye-balled hull down position 2. LOS tool from end of Hunt movement waypoint to confirm hull down, or at least partial hull down, to intended location. Hunt command also has the advantage of your unit stopping and engaging if it spots a threat in another direction before getting to the planned HD position. Seems a lot of players, veteran players, can't seem to get it to work. Anthony I think you might be in the minority here. Idea to replace it with something less fiddly might be a good one. From the 4.0 Engine Manual, pages 6 and 51 in my version Hulldown Vehicles have access to a new movement command called Hulldown. This command allows a vehicle to move forward until only the turret is exposed to a specified target, and then the vehicle stops moving. Here is how to conduct a hulldown command: 1. Select a vehicle and give it a Hulldown movement command. This is the furthest point that the vehicle will move forward to if it doesn't establish hulldown for any reason. 2. Optionally assign a Target command aimed at the point that you wish the vehicle to become hulldown to. This target can be either a point on the ground or an enemy unit. The command can be a normal "immediate" command or attached to the hulldown-move waypoint. 3. If you don't assign a target command, then your vehicle will attempt to become hull-down to the waypoint location you set in step 1. 4. The vehicle will follow the Hulldown movement command and move forward. When the vehicle is hulldown to the designated target (or waypoint if there is no target), the Hulldown command will be canceled and the vehicle will stop moving. 5. If the (optional) designated target was an Area Target, the vehicle will cancel the Target command upon reaching hulldown. If the target is an enemy unit, the vehicle will begin attacking the target once it reaches hulldown.