How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

22 hours ago, kohlenklau said:

Maybe moving forward we all just post battle reports, technical info, and strategy reports. 

 

 Stay away from posting personal court room testimony or whatever you'd call it.

Just an idea.

Or lock it 

The problem here is that there are no real post-battle reports, technical info or strategy reports.  This dance is the same one we loved through in Iraq and Afghanistan for years.  Difference now is how the war is being waged.  That is what makes this war worth monitoring.  One cannot divorce the military from politics in this fight, or any other for that matter.

Regardless, the hits just keep coming:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/israel-says-it-will-defend-itself-against-genocide-accusations-at-world-court-1.6707262

[Lethaface]

23 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I do agree that this entire thread is growing tiresome and we simply are not going to agree.  But let’s be frank and let me ask the real question.  How much of this is western biased and good old fashion racism against Arabs for all the trouble and pain we have gone through in that region?  We were well programmed to hate Arabs in Hollywood and not so subtle machinations of western Christianity over the last 20 years.  And now that something looking a lot like ethnic cleansing of a pseudo Arab state (or whatever) is happening people are tying narratives in knots trying to somehow justify Israel’s actions….because you are really ok with that?
 

Too much I guess, unfortunately. I guess for plenty people in the West (including here) Arab lives are simply worth less. 

--

That being said, for anyone wishing to (better) understand the roots of the current problems in Israel/Palestine (and the broader ME) and how it's basically a European/Western created problem exported to the region, I picked up an interesting book at the airport during my recent holidays: "A line in the sand", by James Barr (2012).

Thought it was a good read, shows some interesting insights in the not so friendly dealings / Imperialistic rivalry between the UK and the French, while being allied in WW1 and WW2.

[Lethaface]

On 12/26/2023 at 6:20 PM, kohlenklau said:

I did now. Thanks. Good stuff. 

EDIT: Does anyone have any articles that look into what Hamas thinks or is thinking or what Gaza "Palestinians" think of Hamas and the current war? 

 

 

It's a bit of a lengthy video, but I think it describes the perspective from 'overthere'  in a good way. I'm not a fan of Piers Morgan but this is a good interview imo:

 

[OBJ]

One man's opinion (no, not mine  ) below - US General and former CIA Director David Petraeus, from the BBC Gaza live update this morning (02Jan2024).

My opinion (yes this is my opinion not Petraeus'  ), "clear and hold all," certainly looks like it would cause the war in Gaza to last all of 2024 as the Israeli government is now projecting. For me, it is getting increasingly hard not to see how this conflict doesn't get bigger than it has already.

Former CIA director: Israel has to clear and hold all of Gaza

The former director of the CIA General David Petraeus has told the BBC that Israel has to "clear and hold all of Gaza" to achieve its stated mission of destroying Hamas and rescuing the hostages.

Petraeus, a retired US general who served in Afghanistan and Iraq, compares the war to the battle against the so-called Islamic State.

"If you look at the case of [the Iraqi town of] Mosul and destruction of the Islamic State - and I think Hamas can be compared to that, though it's an imperfect analogy, but if that is the model, you have to destroy Hamas, you cannot reconcile with them."

Mosul was recaptured by the Iraqi army, assisted by US-led coalition warplanes, in 2017 during a huge military operation that left large areas in ruins and killed thousands of civilians.

Petraeus says that after the current war, Gaza will have to be rebuilt. However, once Hamas has been destroyed it may have to be Israel that "takes on that task", because of a lack of alternatives, the general adds.

Petraeus also tells the BBC that it is a "very legitimate concern" that Israel’s military operation in Gaza could radicalise future generations.

Edited January 2 by OBJ

[Erwin]

9 minutes ago, OBJ said:

Mosul was recaptured by the Iraqi army, assisted by US-led coalition warplanes, in 2017 during a huge military operation that left large areas in ruins and killed thousands of civilians.

Glad Petraeus said that.  The fact is that "we" have been doing the same as the Israelis in our own conflicts... but they were never reported in the same way as the Israeli-Pal conflict has been.  So when "we did it", it was understandable and applauded.  As folks have noted earlier in this thread, there is an ugly double-standard applied here compared to the US reaction after 9/11 when Iraq (which had nothing to do with 9/11) was invaded and reportedly hundreds of thousands of "innocent men women and children" were killed.  

There is a big difference between deliberate cruelty/torture/terrororizing and unfortunate/regrettable collateral damage to eliminate an evil such as ISIS or Hamas.

Edited January 2 by Erwin

[kohlenklau]

I guess this is the tryouts for the high school debate team? JHC.

I support Israel. 

I have seen the genocide card played, the apartheid card played, colonization card played, pay them reparations card played, and now I see the racist card is played.

IS OLD FASHIONED RACISM THE REASON I THINK A CERTAIN WAY ABOUT GAZA?

I guess you mean skin color?

Only trying to speak for myself here to say that I don't think so.

For whatever it is worth...Christmas present for me and the Mrs were the DNA kits. No surprise, I am 50-50 Germanic European and Eastern European Slavic (Hungarian). My wife joked and called me Hitler-Putin. She is a mix of Northern Philippines and Indigenous American Indian and Mexican and some Spanish and Portugese...and somehow 1% Jewish. OY VEY!

I watched a bunch of videos "Ask an Israeli" and "Ask a Palestinian" and for racial identity - I guess I have no 100% handle on what a Palestinian looks like. I have no 100% handle on what an Israeli looks like. Lots of different looks. Even the Israeli hostage Mia Schem said she revealed herself from hiding at that concert to somebody she thought might be an Israeli. She was wrong and got hauled away.

If it aint racism then what is it?

I flat out have more respect for the Israeli side. I have spent some intimate time with them. I have also spent some lesser time with military members and civilians of Arab nations. 

One thing that really resonated with me was the flower industry and greenhouses left behind intact when Israel pulled out of Gaza back in 2005 or whenever it was. Palestinians I guess do not like making flowers. Just tunnels!

If the point of this thread is to sway pro-Israeli opinions and win by having someone change their view. I guess I will just say I don't see that happening. 

HAMAS! Please surrender and stop the death of your people. Not gonna? OK, we kinda figured that. Iran says "hang in there guys!"...

Nobody is perfect. But given these 2 sides, I support Israel. I called my elected representatives and said so. I joined Friends of the IDF. I donated and specified my donation for 5.56mm ammo. 

HOLLYWOOD MOVIES: 

The entertainment industry and movie makers have always portrayed people whatever way they wanted and felt they could get away with or what was easiest. Charlie Chan was really a white actor. Cowboy and Indian movies had white actors with make-up quite a bit. Coke bottle glasses Japanese soldiers in the WW2 movies. Black domestic servants in many old movies. (Now the pendulum swings the other way. If you don't know what I mean, I guess you don't watch too many of the new "woke" movies). Classic Arab bad guys I recall from "Navy Seals" and Charlie Sheen kills the bad guy in the water at the end. Also good old Chuck Norris with the rearward firing motorcycle rocket in Delta Force. Classic stuff with the bad guy getting it. I saw a Made in China movie about the Korean War. Lots of scenes of white guys getting it from the Chinese hero. Entertainment Industry is like that globally I guess. 

I will make the CMFI Palestine 1948 mod and folks can battle it out. By the end of the year it should be done.

Best wishes to everybody. Shalom!

 

 

[Carolus]

Now, now, we all know that post 9/11 "Hoorah hoorah America" action movies are clearly the most pervasive social and intellectual influence for anyone who observes the conflict in Israel and Gaza. 

Anti-semitism, on the other hand, is basically unheard of in both the West or the Middle East and would never color anyone's perception of why paramilitary organisations of fanatical theocrats who idolize Hitler are one moist handshake away from laying down their suicide vests and disbanding their battalions of indoctrinated child soldiers.

Sarcasm aside, the facts I think most can agree on:

The IDF must obey international standards and it seems that they don't, at least when it comes to their air- and artillery support, as per people who have a lot of military experience. That has to change, and Israel should get as many phone calls as possible from Western leaders to make that absolutely clear (and in my personal opinion change their strategy in such a way that the fight against the terror organisations does not lose efficiency or rather even gains efficiency). 

Secondly, all manner of organisations and individuals associated with China, Russia or the neo-populist right in the West, which paint Ukraine as a Nazi regime that Russia has every right to cleanse now have 100% turned their content around to push the "Israel is an apartheid-state", "10/7 was a hoax or justified" and "genocide in Gaza" number, with the difference that they are now joined by a number of Muslim influencer groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and countless others, which have established excellent networks in the West.

That does not mean they are, per default, wrong. But we should keep in mind how much propaganda these channels are able to generate and how deep they have infiltrated the West over many years, from places of high academic learning to grassroots journalism and everything in between.

That should make any rational person very skeptical when claims of IDF crimes are raised. Viral news of a child being gunned down in Gaza should be weighed against the IDF report that the child refused to lay down a grenade after being told to do so three times, especially when it is established fact that Hamas is using underage personnel for military tasks. 

Edited January 2 by Carolus

[Centurian52]

I'm catching up on a backlog of ISW reports. It's been a while since I've seen a credible casualty estimate for IDF forces. But the December 26 report contained the following paragraph:

Quote

Hamas’ political leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar, said that Hamas is inflicting “heavy [Israeli] losses” and that the al Qassem Brigades “destroyed” the IDF and will “crush it.” Sinwar claimed that Hamas forces killed at least 1,650 Israeli soldiers and permanently disabled 1,650 more.[39] He added that Hamas has destroyed 750 IDF vehicles “completely or partially.” Sinwar provided no evidence to support his assertions and was likely exaggerating dramatically to frame Hamas as performing better militarily than it actually is. The IDF reported that 161 soldiers have been killed in action as of December 26.[40]

While the IDF may not be particularly transparent about their targeting practices, I doubt they're lying about their losses. If they have suffered 161 KIA (as of December 26th), then by the rule of thumb that there are always at least 2 wounded for every 1 killed that means they've likely suffered at least 480 casualties. Of course that 2:1 rule of thumb may be outdated, as medical technology has advanced over the last century. In Ukraine there seem to be at least 3 wounded for every 1 killed. And the IDF is an advanced military that places a high emphasis on the safety of its troops, and which is fighting a smaller and lower intensity war. So the number of WIA per KIA may be much higher. Still, I'd guess their casualties probably don't exceed 1,000. That would mean they're probably suffering 8-16 casualties a day, of which about 2.6 per day are KIA. Less than I would have imagined before the ground offensive into Gaza began.

Edited January 2 by Centurian52

[kohlenklau]

According to IDF spokesman LCOL Jonathan Conricus as of his 31December2023 briefing:

IDF KIA 506. (506 is the sum of the 7 October 2023 KIA plus the 172 KIA since ground operations started).

IDF Wounded: 2,200.

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

17 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I'm catching up on a backlog of ISW reports. It's been a while since I've seen a credible casualty estimate for IDF forces. But the December 26 report contained the following paragraph:

While the IDF may not be particularly transparent about their targeting practices, I doubt they're lying about their losses. If they have suffered 161 KIA (as of December 26th), then by the rule of thumb that there are always at least 2 wounded for every 1 killed that means they've likely suffered at least 480 casualties. Of course that 2:1 rule of thumb may be outdated, as medical technology has advanced over the last century. In Ukraine there seem to be at least 3 wounded for every 1 killed. And the IDF is an advanced military that places a high emphasis on the safety of its troops, and which is fighting a smaller and lower intensity war. So the number of WIA per KIA may be much higher. Still, I'd guess their casualties probably don't exceed 1,000. That would mean they're probably suffering 8-16 casualties a day, of which about 2.6 per day are KIA. Less than I would have imagined before the ground offensive into Gaza began.

Sounds like they just multiply the real damage by a factor of 10... so that would mean around 165 KIA and 75 vehicles destroyed/damaged. Which sounds credible, I think. Far from all those vehicles will be Merkavas.

[OBJ]

Apologies, did not see anyone else post this yet, BBC is source.

Where does this take the conflict?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866346

Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri killed in Beirut blast

2nd January 2024, 03:42 EST

Share

By Raffi Berg & Graeme BakerBBC News

Reuters

Saleh al-Arouri (left) masterminded attacks in the occupied West Bank

Israel has insisted the assassination of a Hamas leader in Beirut was not an attack on Lebanon, as its enemies warned of "punishment" for his death.

An Israeli spokesman said Saleh al-Arouri had died in a "surgical strike against the Hamas leadership".

Hamas condemned the death, while its ally Hezbollah said it was an assault on Lebanese sovereignty.

Lebanon's prime minister, meanwhile, accused Israel of trying "to drag Lebanon into... confrontation".

Lebanese media report that Arouri, a deputy political leader of Hamas, was killed in a drone strike in southern Beirut along with six others - two Hamas military commanders and four other members.

He was a key figure in the Qassam Brigades, Hamas's armed wing, and a close ally of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader. He had been in Lebanon acting as a connection between his group and Hezbollah.

Israeli spokesman Mark Regev stopped short of confirming Israel had carried out the assassination, a standard position for Israeli officials, but he told MSNBC: "Whoever did it, it must be clear that this was not an attack on the Lebanese state.

"It was not an attack even on Hezbollah, the terrorist organization.

"Whoever did this did a surgical strike against the Hamas leadership. Whoever did this has a gripe with Hamas. That is very clear."

Arouri, 57, is the most senior Hamas figure to be killed since Israel went to war with the group after its 7 October attack.

On that day, waves of Hamas gunmen invaded Israel and attacked communities around the border, killing about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking around 240 to Gaza as hostages.

Israel launched a military offensive in response, with the declared aim of destroying Hamas.

Since then, more than 22,000 Palestinians - mostly women and children - have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza, according to Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry.

Hezbollah has fired scores of rockets into Israel and fought several skirmishes with Israeli forces during the Gaza war.

Lebanon's state news agency said Arouri had been killed by an Israeli drone attack on a Hamas office in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh.

Reuters

Arouri is reported to have been killed in a drone strike on a third floor

A witness from Reuters news agency saw firefighters and paramedics gathered around a high-rise building where there was a large hole in what appeared to be the third floor.

Video footage on social media showed a car in flames and extensive damage to buildings in what is a busy residential area.

Dahiyeh is known as a stronghold of Hezbollah.

Mr Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, called the attack a "cowardly... terrorist act, a violation of Lebanon's sovereignty, and an expansion of its circle of aggression".

Hezbollah said that it considered Arouri's death "to be a serious assault on Lebanon, its people, its security, sovereignty, and resistance, and the highly symbolic and significant political and security messages it contains".

It said the attack was "a dangerous development in the course of the war... and we in Hezbollah affirm that this crime will never pass without response and punishment.

"Its hand is on the trigger, and its resistors are in the highest levels of readiness and preparedness," it added.

Iran, a major supporter of both groups, said Arouri's killing would "undoubtedly ignite another surge in the veins of resistance".

An Israeli security cabinet meeting scheduled for Tuesday evening to discuss the post-war plan for Gaza was cancelled.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously vowed to eliminate Hamas's leaders, wherever they are.

Arouri was also considered the de facto leader of Hamas's military wing in the West Bank, overseeing attacks there, according to Israeli media reports.

He is believed to have been involved in the kidnapping and killing of three Israeli teenagers in the occupied West Bank in 2014, reports say, and had served time in Israeli jails for other attacks.

The Times of Israel says he was also one of the Hamas officials most closely connected to Iran and Hezbollah.

Edited January 3 by OBJ

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Carolus said:

Now, now, we all know that post 9/11 "Hoorah hoorah America" action movies are clearly the most pervasive social and intellectual influence for anyone who observes the conflict in Israel and Gaza.

Given the global awareness of the average North American voter, I think it is an extremely accurate indicator.  Since 9/11 Hollywood and the rest of the entertainment industry has been doing exactly what is has always done…well enter that people want.  Since 9/11. We have been fed a pretty steady diet of “bad muslims” of every shape and size.  We have seen anti-Muslim sentiment in both US and Canada, and of course plenty of anti-semitism as well because apparently some white people don’t like anyone.

Regardless, the question is legitimate in that have we been constructing biases that allow us to look the other way when the IDF are clearly going overboard, on occasion at least.  Personally, I don’t need a Russian disinformation campaign to tell me that the IDF are being heavy handed and very likely outside the LOAC.  The levels and pace of civilian infrastructure alone raises the question.  Frankly the freakin Iraqi military showed more restraint in Mosul against ISIL and that is saying something.

Hamas is a brutal terrorist organization that needs to die.  So was AQ, and the Taliban for that matter.  But none of that justifies warcrimes or even playing fast and loose with the law.  There are ways to prosecute this war and not 1) make Gaza uninhabitable, and 2) kill tens of thousands of civilians.  Are they easy, nope.  Are they quick?  Nope.  But they are definitively lawful.

As to US coalition performance in Iraq the levels of collateral damage were not insignificant:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War

650k at the upper end and there were investigations as to allied criminality.  

However, two very important differences in that war.  1) these numbers are over 3 to 8 years depending which source one uses.  And 2) many of these studies look at all violent deaths and Iraq was rife with sectarian violence.  For example:

The Lancet study's figure of 654,965 excess deaths through the end of June 2006 is based on household survey data. The estimate is for all excess violent and nonviolent deaths. That also includes those due to increased lawlessness, degraded infrastructure, poorer healthcare, etc. 601,027 deaths (range of 426,369 to 793,663 using a 95% confidence interval) were estimated to be due to violence. 31% of those were attributed to the Coalition, 24% to others, 46% unknown. The causes of violent deaths were gunshot (56%), car bomb (13%), other explosion/ordnance (14%), airstrike (13%), accident (2%), unknown (2%). A copy of a death certificate was available for a high proportion of the reported deaths (92% of those households asked to produce one).^[32][33][34]
So while shocking one can see that coalition military action only accounted for roughly one third of these deaths over a three year period…in a worst case study.  That is roughly 216k civilian casualties in 36 months during the most intense periods of that war.  The US was definitely angry and pushing envelopes.  I know people who were in Corp HQ and ROEs were an issue right along with detainees, especially after Abu Graib.  So the US military, arguably off the leash.  Fighting a broad insurgency in an entire nation of 27 million people were killing roughly 6k civilians as collateral damage per month.

The IDF is waging a similar type of war in a tiny strip of land with roughly 2 million people trapped in a box and its showing civilian casualty rate at over double that.  In short the IDF is killing Palestinians at twice the rate of the US coalition during the darkest days of the war in ‘03.  They are doing it on a  civilian population less than ten percent of that of Iraq in ‘03.  It is targeting and prosecuting targets at rates we are not seeing in Ukraine, yet arguing they are doing so cleanly in a complex urban and human environment.  The levels of destruction strongly suggest intent to render the area uninhabitable for Palestinian return…which is also a warcrime.

So yes, I too support Israel.  But I do not support criminality in any shape or form.  There is enough here to at least get the IDF to justify its actions and demonstrate with transparency that it has been righteous.  Any failure to hold Israel to account if illegal action has occurred erodes any future holding Russia (or anyone else for that matter) on illegal military operations.  Finally, as has been noted by myself…and now Gen Petraus, this action will very likely play into Hamas’ over all strategic aims to isolate Israel, prevent any rapprochement with the Arab world (where things were actually heading re: Saudi Arabia) and will fuel their ranks for another generation.

But of course, “aw shucks and pass em more ammunition”.

 

[The_Capt]

20 minutes ago, OBJ said:

Apologies, did not see anyone else post this yet, BBC is source.

Where does this take the conflict?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866346

In the right freakin direction!  Targeted extrajudicial killing of Hamas leadership with precision is how to fight a terror network.  Not dropping high rises.

[Probus]

I have a few questions:

1. Is Hamas holding civilians as human shields a warcrime?

2. Isn't reducing the length of a war a big factor in the overall reduction in casualties on both sides, or is that just a myth?  

3.  Would a ceasefire just allow Hamas to dig in deeper?

4. Are combatants that dress in civilian clothes a warcrime or outside the rules of warfare?

Makes ROE rather difficult.

[kohlenklau]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

We have seen anti-Muslim sentiment in both US and Canada, and of course plenty of anti-semitism as well because apparently some white people don’t like anyone.

Gosh, I am not sure at all why you had to add that extra stuff at the end of that specific remark. To little old me, it kind of blemishes your high and mighty lecturing up to this point. 

The few surveys I took a minute to look at both had some interesting results. blacks and latinos had lower percentages of viewing muslims in a negative light versus whites. But for anti-semitism, the percentages were higher than white people. So, that tells me that hate is everywhere and is in everybody. Your point was rising hatreds in both categories, got it. But something extra leaked out. Maybe you need a survey?  A cocktail and a good night's rest AND then a survey. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Carolus]

3 hours ago, Probus said:

I have a few questions:

1. Is Hamas holding civilians as human shields a warcrime?

2. Isn't reducing the length of a war a big factor in the overall reduction in casualties on both sides, or is that just a myth?  

3.  Would a ceasefire just allow Hamas to dig in deeper?

4. Are combatants that dress in civilian clothes a warcrime or outside the rules of warfare?

Makes ROE rather difficult.

1. Objectively yes. Perfidy at least.

2. That depends entirely on how the war is fought. Imagine if the IDF nukes Gaza - extremely short duration, does not help to alleviate civilian casualties.

3. No objective answer in my humble opinion. My subjective opinion is that a ceasefire would indeed be a major benefit to Hamas and I personally object to it. They are clearly on the ropes and Gaza City is basicslly 100% occupied right now. If there was a time to systematically remove every RPG and AK74 from Gaza, it is now, because they are already there.

But what is needed is a different approach by the IDF, even if it is slower.

4. Objectively yes. Perfidy again, at least.

Fighting a paramilitary guerilla troop in dense urban terrain absolutely makes ROE extremely difficult. It's probably the hardest scenario any military force can face (outside of a total conventional war etc.)

Remove the urban terrain and replace it with either jungles or desert mountains, and it made the largest military force on the planet decide twice that it's not really worth the effort, eventually.

But the warcrimes of one side do not justify the warcrimes of another side. That's not how it works. International standards give a good deal of freedom for military action within the space of legality, including the killing of civilians as collateral damage, as long as a justified military target was pursued with the appropriate amount of force. That has to suffice as an instrument. Very experienced people have raised doubts that the IDF can justify all its actions in that way.

Hamas operates, by its definition, entirely outside the realm of legality. It has no ROE beyond what leaders might consider usefulness PR in a specific situation or what a local combatant leader has as a personal compass. "Do I gun down 50 Palestinians to kill 1 IDF soldier if I see the opportunity or not?" - it's entirely up to personal feelings in that situation.

Acting in a perfidious manner is what Hamas relies upon for its very existence. In the asymmetrical conflict it needs to squeeze out every little advantage against a conventional military, no matter how.

If a Hamas member in something that looks like it can count for a uniform targets an IDF vehicle, it is complete coincidence. Hamas fighters wear jeans and t-shirt and there is an unknown number of Palestinian civilians who will readily pick up the weapon of any fallen Hamas member and start blasting in the direction of an IDF tank. Hamas members use ambulances and or clothes of medical personnel to cross streets. Hamas sets up missile launchers explicitly in areas the IDF designates as civilian evacuation zones.

The entire point existence of Hamas is crime and warcrime.

That's why pitting Hamas behaviour against ROEs of a conventional military is kind of a moot point. Obviously Hamas has no ROEs.  But that is not really significant for the legal boundaries of the IDF. They can account for Hamas strategy and tactics and the conditions of the operation areas, but they must set acceptable ROEs.

Edited January 3 by Carolus

[Holien]

5 hours ago, kohlenklau said:

But something extra leaked out. Maybe you need a survey?  A cocktail and a good night's rest AND then a survey. 

No it didn't. Shame on you...

 

[Holien]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

the right freakin direction!  Targeted extrajudicial killing of Hamas leadership with precision is how to fight a terror network.  Not dropping high rises.

This just shows how it could be being tackled...

It really shows the war in Gaza for what it is an excuse to remove the people from the area and give more land to be settled.

As noted time and time again these actions will not make Israel safer and will not bring security to the region.

If folk want safety for Israel this is absolutely the wrong approach.

Russia has the excuse that their targeting systems are crap, the IDF are hitting exactly what they want and when they want to.

This makes imo the IDF worse than the Russians yet they are not being held to account.

Send them more ammo to murder more innocents to make Israel (and the world) less secure...

Dohhh...

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, kohlenklau said:

Gosh, I am not sure at all why you had to add that extra stuff at the end of that specific remark. To little old me, it kind of blemishes your high and mighty lecturing up to this point. 

The few surveys I took a minute to look at both had some interesting results. blacks and latinos had lower percentages of viewing muslims in a negative light versus whites. But for anti-semitism, the percentages were higher than white people. So, that tells me that hate is everywhere and is in everybody. Your point was rising hatreds in both categories, got it. But something extra leaked out. Maybe you need a survey?  A cocktail and a good night's rest AND then a survey. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will see your uncited “survey” and raise you several hundred years of Euro-centric colonization and empires built on slavery.  Are you saying there are not white people who don’t basically dislike anyone who is not white?  Note I said “some” and not all.  Did you happen to find any surveys where the growing problem of white supremacy has support from “black and Latino” communities as well?

I added that last part because the history of the US, and most of Europe for that matter, is not a shining example of race or ethnic…or diverse religion relations in the 19th, 20th and now 21st century.  The current impulse to support Israel in spite some highly questionable military actions could be an “other” reaction against the Arab world that has been building since 9/11.  Within societies that have a pretty brutal track record of “othering” going back a few hundred years…ya, crazy idea, right?

As to an actual pre-war survey:

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-generation-gap-in-opinions-toward-israel/

It found that support to Israel varied by age and politics.  The greatest support was among older Republicans…now I wonder what ethnic demographic makes up older Republicans…hmm.

So adding to the debate I looked up a war I am very familiar with because I was in it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_in_the_war_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

So best guess is around 46k civilian deaths in 20 years in a nation of around 40 million. Noting that this war was also a “war amongst the people” in complex urban and human terrain.  We somehow managed to prosecute that war against both insurgents and a terror group without causing tens of thousands civilian casualties per month.  Granted the Gaza war is in early days and their average could drop over time but I would need to see that first.  That non-combatant loss rate is around 2100 per year.  While the IDF are looking at 12k per month…in a population of 2 million.
 

 

[Probus]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So adding to the debate I looked up a war I am very familiar with because I was in it:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilian_casualties_in_the_war_in_Afghanistan_(2001–2021)

So best guess is around 46k civilian deaths in 20 years in a nation of around 40 million. Noting that this war was also a “war amongst the people” in complex urban and human terrain.  We somehow managed to prosecute that war against both insurgents and a terror group without causing tens of thousands civilian casualties per month.  Granted the Gaza war is in early days and their average could drop over time but I would need to see that first.  That non-combatant loss rate is around 2100 per year.  While the IDF are looking at 12k per month…in a population of 2 million.

That's not a fair comparison Capt. Most of the fighting was in the country. I would think something like Mosul would be closer.  That was closer to 9000 (in a month?).

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/92961/pdf/#:~:text=According to monitoring groups and,more civilians killed at Raqqa.

But that is 1.8 million population over 70 square miles. So even that is less populated per sq mile. I could do the math, but I don't think the results would be acceptable as I'm sure war doesn't scale linearly. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosul

Edited January 3 by Probus
Added Wiki link

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, Probus said:

I have a few questions:

1. Is Hamas holding civilians as human shields a warcrime?

2. Isn't reducing the length of a war a big factor in the overall reduction in casualties on both sides, or is that just a myth?  

3.  Would a ceasefire just allow Hamas to dig in deeper?

4. Are combatants that dress in civilian clothes a warcrime or outside the rules of warfare?

Makes ROE rather difficult.

@Carolus gave a pretty good reply to this one.  I might add:

1.  Absolutely. Hostage taking of any sort is a warcrime as it constitutes direct violent coercion of non-combatants.  If the rumours of IDF “power targets” is true then these would fall under the same legality.  No different than RA terror strikes in Ukraine right now.

2. Myth really. First is that the war can be shortened at all.  This is a grinding hybrid fight in very complex urban and human terrain.  There are no short cuts in this sort of thing unless one wishes to violate LOAC and simply start hammering everything.  That moves the military strategy away from annihilation of enemy military capability or attrition, and towards outright extermination of an entire population.  Finally, war like this one do not really “end”.  Hamas may very well be wiped off the map but…all war is personal.  There is an entire generation of children that will remember this little dust up and it will give cause and impetus for terror and insurgent action for a generation at least.

3.  Possibly but not really.  In wars like these Hamas did all “the digging in” it needed to before 7 Oct. This is not a conventional fight where standards of military tempo and momentum apply.  The idea that civilian casualties are a necessity in order to somehow deny Hamas an ability to resist is weak tea.  Hamas set this fight up and dug tunnels for years.  This is exactly the fight they wanted.  They are not reeling, hell they are still firing rockets into Israel, which is nuts after the levels of firepower thrown at them.  Further this line of thought misses another important factor…recruiting base.  Right now I would bet good money that Palestinians who wanted nothing to do with fighting in Hamas are joining up to fight.  Why?  Well losing one’s family is a pretty good motivation.  As is basic self defence.  Not every fighting age Palestinian male is Hamas, if that were true Hamas would number around a million man fighting force.  But by waging a war directly against a civilian population one is pushing support into Hamas’ arms.  In many cases it is a justified self-defence reflex as the IDF may wind up killing me anyway.

4.  No. Uniforms are of course an accepted norm. But in case where people need to defend themselves - a universal human right - and there is no time to create a proper military then non-uniformed combatants are accepted.  An example would be partisans in occupied territories in Ukraine right now.  No one is expecting them to uniform up or accusing them of warcrimes for resisting an invasion.  Now Hamas dressing as aid agencies or medical staff is a warcrime but we would need to see some evidence of this behaviour.

However, as has been mentioned warcrimes on one side of a conflict do not absolve the other from sticking to the LOAC…that is not how things work.  Hamas has no doubt committed violations, 7 Oct was definitely a terrorist illegal operation.  But none of that justifies the IDF killing civilians at rates similar to the RU in Mariupol or Soviets in Afghanistan.

[kohlenklau]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Are you saying there are not white people who don’t basically dislike anyone who is not white?  

I guess I am older than you and retired. I am lucky I don't have to act woke and get on the hate whites blame whites band wagon. I don't see why you went down that path here. Earlier you had asked if racism was a reason to support Israel. Then I was just calling you on your own racist comment that came out of nowhere. 

 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Probus said:

That's not a fair comparison Capt. Most of the fighting was in the country. I would think something like Mosul would be closer.  That was closer to 9000 (in a month?).

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/92961/pdf/#:~:text=According to monitoring groups and,more civilians killed at Raqqa.

But that is 1.8 million population over 70 square miles. So even that is less populated per sq mile. I could do the math, but I don't think the results would be acceptable as I'm sure war doesn't scale linearly. 

Well yes and no.  We did not see an urban gunfight on this scale in Afghanistan but “rural” in that country is more a bunch of small urban terrain. Every village or town it’s actually dense and tight little bundles of urban terrain.  It has to do with traditional community planning with respect to lack of public transportation infra and the fact that Afghanistan was always being invaded.  Just about every gunfight we ever got into had a civilian consideration especially when employing AirPower.

As to Mosul:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Mosul_(2016–2017)

Very good example really.  Pre-conflict populations were even similar:

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/21536/mosul/population

At the high end estimates are 40k over 9 months. The IDF are at over half that number in about 2.5 months.  And of course the body count in Gaza is likely much higher as there are many missing under all that rubble.  The real question is out of that 22k how many are actually Hamas?  

[OBJ]

and this, saw it before the Beirut strike, then thought there might be dots to connect.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-detains-33-people-suspected-espionage-israels-mossad-state-media-2024-01-02/

Turkey detains 34 people suspected of ties to Israel's Mossad -senior official

1st 2 paras - "ANKARA, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Turkish authorities have detained 34 people suspected of being linked to Israel's Mossad intelligence service and of targeting Palestinians living in Turkey, a senior Turkish official said on Tuesday, adding Mossad also recruited members in the country.

Last month, Turkish officials warned Israel of "serious consequences" if it tried to hunt down members of the militant group Hamas living outside Palestinian territories, including in Turkey. President Tayyip Erdogan warned that would be a mistake."

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, kohlenklau said:

I guess I am older than you and retired. I am lucky I don't have to act woke and get on the hate whites blame whites band wagon. I don't see why you went down that path here. Earlier you had asked if racism was a reason to support Israel. Then I was just calling you on your own racist comment that came out of nowhere. 

 

It is racist (or “woke”…to be honest I am not sure you really understand what that means) to point out that racism has existed and continues to exist within Eurocentric societies?  That white people have a pretty long and shameful history of racist behaviours is not really up for much debate.  I mean to be fair other homogeneous cultures have also jumped on that bandwagon (Japanese anyone?).  However, the idea that an established history of a race biased sub-culture in the dominant demographic of any nation is kind of central to a debate on whether race is playing a role in this current one.

I am not, nor would not call out any one individual on this forum as racist - without serious evidence, and I am pretty sure the moderator would be well ahead of me regardless.  I am pointing out that there is a cancerous sub-culture in white America and Europe that views the world through a race and ethnic lens that could be at play here. Considering that your spouse is of mixed race I am surprised that you are surprised to be honest.  This is not “white bashing” or a guilt trip, these are facts.  We have been fed a steady diet of anti-Islam sentiment for over 20 years.  Is it such a stretch to ask if that is playing a role in influencing opinions in this current war?