How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Ts4EVER]

Germany wants to send 50 Leopard Is now, wonder if that is a good idea...

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

On a political level I think much of it is an unwillingness to give one more inch of Ukrainian territory than is absolutely necessary. After Bucha, who would?

On a tactical/operational level, it's not a pocket of doom yet. Better to tempt the Russians into a lunge to make a pocket happen than do the hard work for them and thereby allowing the Russians to move in their own time

We have not seen this sort of irrationality from the Ukrainian political level thus far so I think it odd to be losing the pragmatic strategy in favour of a dangerous symbolic one based on "not one foot back".  I mean, maybe but that is quite a philosophical shift.

That second part also doesn't quite line up, I mean why cede the initiative?  Although it does make sense if this were in fact a trap.

22 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

As the home of the Azov battalion, an attack on Mariupol was the fig-leaf of credibility the Russians needed to justify the attack in the first place. If you are going to go after the conquest of entirety of East Ukraine, it is the one city you cannot skip because of it. 

Maybe but after week 2 this became an operational zombie because it was obvious that Russia was not going to be able to take all of Eastern Ukraine.  The "fig-leaf" idea does track, but the cost?!  A city of 400k that has taken over a month of heavy street fighting, and still is not secure likely soaked up Divisions worth of troops and resources.  All so Putin can point to one ruined city and declare victory?

This is always where Clausewitz starts to fray.  What happens when policy becomes completely irrational, or invariable when the "military means" becomes the policy itself?

[c3k]

5 hours ago, TheVulture said:

BBC news, like most UK news, suffers from an obsession with human interest stories. Journalists are pretty much trained to care about nothing else it seems. They don't know how to cover a war except ion the big situation changes (Russia invades, Ukraine wins battle for Kiev and Russia withdraws), and stories about normal people being affected by the war. Once they've run out of angles to cover on that, they don't know what to do any more. because they don't know how to report on the actual military situation where there are developments worth reporting.

Any dramatic or noteworthy developments will may get covered still, but anything else is going to be fighting for air time with coverage of the upcoming local government elections in May.

^^^ (and fixed that for you with the bold)

This.  It's nauseating at (most?) times.

Someone, in this thread, posted a picture of a horde of "journalists" clustered around a cat and rabidly filming it, while they were in the midst of some destruction in a Ukrainian city. To them, the cat was more important than anything else in that situation.

[Taranis]

 

Occupation authorities in parts of Donetsk region of Ukraine via Russian State media urge to use chemical weapons against Ukrainian troops in Mariupol :

Quote

RIA News
Pushilin said that at least 1.5 thousand Ukrainian militants were blocked in the Azovstal area
Basurin said that it makes no sense to storm the underground fortifications of Azovstal in Mariupol, you need to "turn to the chemical troops"

"There are underground floors, so it makes no sense to take this object by storm. Because you can put a large number of your soldiers, and the enemy will not suffer losses as such"

“Therefore, at the moment it is necessary to deal with the blocking of this plant, find all the exits and entrances - in principle, this can be done.

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Taranis

[Elmar Bijlsma]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

We have not seen this sort of irrationality from the Ukrainian political level thus far so I think it odd to be losing the pragmatic strategy in favour of a dangerous symbolic one based on "not one foot back".  I mean, maybe but that is quite a philosophical shift.

That second part also doesn't quite line up, I mean why cede the initiative?  Although it does make sense if this were in fact a trap.

At this stage it is not a situation that requires irrationality to stay put. It's far from a pocket yet.

As for ceding initiative, is initiative that thing where Russian armour advance along an ATGM lined road? I wouldn't want initiative like that. I wouldn't call it anything as grand as a trap, but sure, make them work and bleed for it. The decision to stay and fight or pull back can be made at a later date.

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe but after week 2 this became an operational zombie because it was obvious that Russia was not going to be able to take all of Eastern Ukraine.  The "fig-leaf" idea does track, but the cost?!  A city of 400k that has taken over a month of heavy street fighting, and still is not secure likely soaked up Divisions worth of troops and resources.  All so Putin can point to one ruined city and declare victory?

This is always where Clausewitz starts to fray.  What happens when policy becomes completely irrational, or invariable when the "military means" becomes the policy itself?

Who else is there that Russian commanders need to care about other than Putin and what he needs? The generals will cause the Azov battalion to drown in the blood of Russian soldiers, if Putin orders it. There are no other considerations.

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

As the home of the Azov battalion

Stricktly speaking, the "motherland" of Azov is Kharkiv. And their base is small Urzuf town between Berdiansk and Mariupol. But yes, since summer-autumn of 2014 and especially 2015, Azov and Mariupol area are almost "synonyms"

Edited April 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian troops on the south of Donetsk oblast inflicted losses to BTG of 70th motor rifle rigiment of 42nd MRD. Claimed that among killed Russians were BTG comamnder and chief of the staff, which were killed in one command BMP-3. I think, names of these officers will be issued soon. By the link below more graphic photos

https://m.censor.net/ua/photo_news/3333084/kupa_ponivechenyh_til_okupantiv_1yi_btgr_58yi_armiyi_pivdennogo_viyiskovogo_okrugu_rf_yaki_namagalysya

Edited April 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Hapless]

(Admittedly a long shot:)

Maybe Mariupol isn't about Russia vs Ukraine anymore. Maybe Putin has realised that that ship has sailed and he's concentrating on post-war internal issues. I'm only saying this because it looks like there are plenty of Chechens in Mariupol: is throwing them into the grinder an exercise in attempting to neuter Kadyrov before he starts getting crazy ideas about an independent Chechnya?

Not enough to reduce his ability to police Chechnya, but enough to stop him doing anything else.

Alternatively re: Mariupol- support for the Ukrainians kicked up a notch after the Russians pulled out of the north and everyone could see what they had been doing. That might have been preferable to military collapse, but it was also a significant blow on the information-diplomatic front that seems to have significantly increased support for Ukraine.

Given that the Russians have potentially (probably) done much worse in Mariupol- or done so on a larger scale- they may feel that they can't pull out for fear of the world finding out.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Hapless

[Offshoot]

14 minutes ago, c3k said:

Someone, in this thread, posted a picture of a horde of "journalists" clustered around a cat and rabidly filming it, while they were in the midst of some destruction in a Ukrainian city. To them, the cat was more important than anything else in that situation.

It's strange. Some people in this thread have decried press taking a picture of a cat as representative of vacuous MSM manipulation. But they don't seem to mind being manipulated by a picture of the press taking a picture of a cat. That picture was a snapshot, a moment in time. I highly doubt that people who have risked their lives to actually be there would spend their whole time photographing just a cat. How do you rabidly photograph anyway?

But war is conducted by humans and it is human to be drawn to life and comforted by it among such tragic destruction. Maybe it even helps with morale.

Here is another thread about a cat. By an adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. I suppose he should be doing more important things too than being compassionate to an innocent creature.

 

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I know 'macro guy' @JasonC has many nonfans on this board, but he is quite correct in this IMHO -- the Blitzkrieg stereotype of 'hit em where they ain't' maneuvering only takes you so far.  Sooner rather than later you have got to engage and kill the enemy forces, at a higher rate than they are killing you. Get a clue: they don't just curl up and die because you're 'behind them'.

I actually enjoyed sparring with Jason back in the day.  Manoeuvre and attrition are two sides of a single coin.  Manoeuvre is not something we invented in 1940, it goes all the way back to the dawn of time.  The standard model was to "manoeuvre-to-attrition" and then repeat until your opponents war fighting system collapsed.  Then WW1 happened and we found ourselves upside down (the hints that it was coming go back to the US Civil War) and everyone was "attrition-to-manoeuvre" which they could never actually break out of, and so it really just became about attrition.  Then we invented the tank, radios, aircraft and we were back to a modern form of "manoeuvre-to-attrition" ever since, which works great, except for small wars and COIN where neither parts of the system work well, but that is a separate conversation.  

A big question for this war is "are we back to attrition-to-manoeuvre"?  42 days in and there are signs it might, but I think the jury is still out.  The last part about "not curling up and dying because they are behind you" does not track in this war or some others.  Ukrainian defenders did get behind the Russian advances and sliced up their LOCs, one need only look at the Oryx numbers of logistical vehicles destroyed (now at 787) to see this...and the Russians did "curl up and die" to the point that entire operational axis effectively collapsed...whoops.  The part this point of view is missing is that troops need water, ammo, food, fuel/spare parts and data, when starved of this they basically do "curl up and die" after a pretty short period of time.  This is a reality in WW2 (May-Jun 1940, Eastern Front in '41, Falaise Gap), Dien Bien Phu, Falkslands '82, Gulf War '91 and now Russo-Ukrainian War 2022; war is not a Marquis of Queensberry Rules boxing match, it is a street fight and choking an opponent out is on the menu.

Edited April 11, 2022 by The_Capt

[Taranis]

 

 

[Taranis]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian troops on the south of Donetsk oblast inflicted losses to BTG of 70th motor rifle rigiment of 42nd MRD. Claimed that among killed Russians were BTG comamnder and chief of the staff, which were killed in one command BMP-3. I think, names of these officers will be issued soon. By the link below more graphic photos

https://m.censor.net/ua/photo_news/3333084/kupa_ponivechenyh_til_okupantiv_1yi_btgr_58yi_armiyi_pivdennogo_viyiskovogo_okrugu_rf_yaki_namagalysya

Confirms to me the use of BMP-3 by 70 MRR / 42 GMRD. Thanks Haiduk !
Sburke, you will need to add other names soon !

[The Steppenwulf]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

- The UA likely knows exactly where the Russian build up is occurring thanks to it own ISR and western feeds.  So they can see the Russian plan and build up clearly.  So why stay in that “pocket of doom”?  The UA defence has been excellent in positioning and anticipating Russian movements, so if they are leaving forces in that pocket I doubt it is an accident.  The UA assessment must point to success by remaining in that pocket or they would simply pull out.

My thoughts on this:

UA has a firm network of defences on this front, manned by very good units and have fixed the RA units facing them in place. Withdrawing therefore might just be conceding the best defensive positional set up the UA have got? If so, I'd suggest that's a big call to make! 

Some commentators on the conflict don't put too much credit in UA military strategic leadership, if military planning is as sclerotic as the Russians, it might also explain why a reassessment of the situation isn't punctual.     

Edited April 11, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[Taranis]

Quote

Libérer Marioupol est « désormais militairement impossible », selon un conseiller de Zelensky
Les forces ukrainiennes se préparent à la chute de Marioupol, port stratégique du Sud-Est assiégé depuis plus de quarante jours par l’armée russe et largement détruit. « Je suis le premier à trouver la force de dire » que les forces ukrainiennes ne peuvent pas libérer Marioupol, « c’est désormais impossible militairement », a déclaré dimanche soir sur YouTube Oleksiy Arestovych, un conseiller du président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky.

« Aujourd’hui sera probablement l’ultime bataille » à Marioupol « car nos munitions s’épuisent », a aussi écrit sur Facebook la 36e brigade de la marine nationale des forces armées ukrainiennes, qui combat dans la ville. « Ce sera la mort pour certains d’entre nous et la captivité pour les autres. Nous ne savons pas ce qu’il va se passer, mais nous vous demandons vraiment de vous souvenir [de nous] avec un mot gentil », a demandé la 36e brigade aux Ukrainiens. « Pendant plus d’un mois, nous avons combattu sans réapprovisionnement en munitions, sans nourriture, sans eau », faisant « le possible et l’impossible », a ajouté cette unité, qui précise que « la moitié » de ses membres sont blessés.

La prise de Marioupol permettrait aux Russes de consolider leurs gains territoriaux sur la bande côtière de la mer d’Azov, en reliant les régions du Donbass à la péninsule de Crimée, annexée par Moscou en 2014. Il s’agit d’un objectif stratégique majeur pour Vladimir Poutine, alors que l’armée russe se prépare, selon Kiev, à lancer son offensive sur l’Est.

Liberating Mariupol is 'now militarily impossible', says Zelensky adviser
Ukrainian forces are preparing for the fall of Mariupol, a strategic port in the south-east besieged for more than forty days by the Russian army and largely destroyed. “I am the first to find the strength to say” that the Ukrainian forces cannot liberate Mariupol, “it is now impossible militarily”, declared Sunday evening on YouTube Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

“Today will probably be the last battle” in Mariupol “because our ammunition is running out”, also wrote on Facebook the 36th brigade of the national navy of the Ukrainian armed forces, which fights in the city. “It will be death for some of us and captivity for others. We don't know what will happen, but we really ask you to remember [us] with a kind word,” the 36th Brigade asked the Ukrainians. "For more than a month, we fought without resupplying ammunition, without food, without water", doing "the possible and the impossible", added this unit, which specifies that "half" of its members are wounded .

The capture of Mariupol would allow the Russians to consolidate their territorial gains on the coastal strip of the Sea of Azov, by connecting the regions of Donbass to the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Moscow in 2014. This is a strategic objective major for Vladimir Poutine, whereas the Russian army prepares, according to kyiv, to launch its offensive on the East.

[Taranis]

Soldiers participating in the Russian operation inspect the streets in the port city of Mariupol, Ukraine, April 7, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS

* Russian unit (white tape)

[DesertFox]

 

 

[CHEqTRO]

So, according to this article, the (in)famous BMPT-72 has been seen heading towards Ukraine. If they actually end up fighting in Ukraine; it will be interesting to see their performance, not so much from a tactical perspective (its esentially an BMP2M with the armor of a T72) , but from a doctrinal one. There has been a lot of discussion, also in this thread, about the end of the MBT, with the usual conclusion beinbg that while they will not disappear, they must evolve, as well as all the doctrine surrounding them. Considering that this vehicle is esentially halfway between an MBT and an IFV, some lessons (that will depend of how the Russians end up using them of course), could be drawn about the future of armor.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Despite the obvious military reversals, Russia is still striving to achieve its primary strategic goals while seemingly abandoning a lot of minor ones.  The strategic goals boil down to:

1. Demilitarization
2. Denazification (nobody really understands this one)
3. Neutrality of Ukraine (i.e. no NATO)
4. Acceptance of Russia’s control of Crimea and the entire area of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts

While I do not disagree with Steve's assessment, I think we need to drop these as the "stated Russian strategic goals".  These are a list of BS that is starting to really reek and none of them hold up to serious analysis:

1. Demilitarization.  Nothing in the Russian strategy beyond "let's try to grab it all" points to this as a real strategic goal.  Further, I am sure Russia has no problem with Ukraine having weapons, so long as it is their people in power, all those weapons are bought from Russia, and they are all pointing westward.

2. Denazification.  So this is a bit like Counter Violent Extreme Organizations (C-VEO) that the west bit off during the big ISIL push.  Beyond not making any sense, BTGs and cruise missile strikes are not how one does it.  This is stuff like counter-self-radicalization programs, which in Russian terms is lining people up and shooting them, apparently.  Nope, I call BS.

3.  "Neutrality of Ukraine", again, nonsense.  Ukraine is in Russia's "near abroad" and they don't want Ukraine "neutral" they want them "anti-NATO/West", and they want the rest of Russia's near abroad to get in line with that.

4.  Acceptance of Russian control of...  This was never about Crimea and Luhansk/Donetsk, they already had defacto control of these areas, that was a stalemate right up until Putin pooped all over it.  Russia was looking for global acceptance of its control over the entire Ukraine, its Near Abroad and Whatever It Sets Its Mind To.

So these are garbage, bordering on propaganda that we should put in the bin next to "Black Bioweapon Sites" and "Ukrainian Alien Mind Waves Making Russian Men Droopy".

Remembering that all war is communication, I offer the real political goals of this war were:

1.  Demonstrate and re-assert Russian global power, effectively undeciding the outcome of the Cold War.

2.  Pull all of Ukraine back into its sphere of control as a lesson/signal to a fracturing global order.

3.  Send a message to the entirety of its near abroad that "this is what stepping out of line looks like for you"

4.  Show NATO/EU/UN and especially the US as 1) divided, 2) weak and dithering, and 3) not the pony to bet on.  

Probably not a bad start but I think this is a more accurate view of the Russian Vision on 24 Feb 2022.  Now that whole edifice has crumbled, so frankly I don't think Russia has any real coherent political goals left other than the worst "choose-your-own-adventure-of-survival" book in a long time.

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The part Jason is missing is that troops need ...

I've been fairly prolific these last few pages, so I am going back into listen mode for a bit. But please note I am only paraphrasing @JasonC and make no claim that I have portrayed his views accurately. He doesn't come here any more, so we should probably just speak for ourselves.

[acrashb]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

 

My key takeaway: "There are signs that basically all modern Russian tanks have been put into active service."  Combined with "So the Russian Ground Forces have visually (always note it is the baseline figure!) lost 467/1400=33.35% tanks deployed in Ukraine in the first 46 days of battle."

Validates what we are seeing and saying.

 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

Very interesting article here, explaining the development of military culture in Russia and Ukraine, and how it influenced their battlefield performance in this war.

https://www.thebulwark.com/i-commanded-u-s-army-europe-heres-what-i-saw-in-the-russian-and-ukrainian-armies/

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

It's strange. Some people in this thread have decried press taking a picture of a cat as representative of vacuous MSM manipulation. But they don't seem to mind being manipulated by a picture of the press taking a picture of a cat. That picture was a snapshot, a moment in time. I highly doubt that people who have risked their lives to actually be there would spend their whole time photographing just a cat. How do you rabidly photograph anyway?

But war is conducted by humans and it is human to be drawn to life and comforted by it among such tragic destruction. Maybe it even helps with morale.

Here is another thread about a cat. By an adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. I suppose he should be doing more important things too than being compassionate to an innocent creature.

 

 

Oh, the inhumanity! Think about the felines!  See, some of YOU have cats. See how close this war is to YOU?

Give me a break.

(Oh, "rabidly"? C'mon, that was a cool piece of literary art, using that term in juxtaposition to a (feral?) cat image. I'd imagine they were drooling and couldn't control themselves.   )

[Lethaface]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Risky? Hell yes!

But what kind of crisis might the UA be able to force upon the Russians to force them to launch their next offensive early and half-baked?

Free flowing some ideas:

* (More) Butcher & Bolt style raids against infrastructure inside Russia.
** Desired effect: drawing Russian attention to their border security.
* Invading liberating large parts of Belarus using all forces along the border of Ukraine-Belarus for a wide advance into Belarus, cooperating/coordinating with the popular resistance.
** Desired effect: give Putin heart attack.
** Of course it won't be a real invasion, but special Military Operation for liberation / denazification of Belarus. 

* Allow the probes from Izium to advance with token resistance only, luring them further away from their main lines / extending the thin salient. Then when the main body moves up in the salient, Switchblade swarm/drone-arty hell rain.

* Feed the media with 'creative' reports that large amounts of disruptive weaponry are being / is delivered in Ukraine, is in the process of being fielded for support in the East. Hundreds of Bayraktar and munitions, 1K switchblades, several brigades worth of T-72, BMP, AFVs, SP-A, etc.
** Desired effect: convince the Russians that they have to act fast or face even stronger resistance.
 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Lethaface

[Kinophile]

13 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I am not sour, and I am an Australian for the last 57 years anyway. 

Australia, 57 years?

That's a long sentencing. What did you do!? Just how many damn sheep did you steal?!

Teasing as I'm Irish

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Australia, 57 years?

That's a long sentencing. What did you do!? Just how many damn sheep did you steal?!

Teasing as I'm Irish

He chucked some dykes.