How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BFCElvis]

4 hours ago, BornGinger said:

Wasn't it the jews that had been put into positions to control the different Soviet production facilities and factories that later on stole them from the Russian people and became the oligarcs? And if you're talking before the Bolshevism, wasn't it the jews that were 80% of the Bolshevik/Leninist-Stalinist Communist leadership and stole the freedom, factories and production facilities from the people although the communists talked about the workers' equality?

If you're talking these days with new sanctions to let the Russian people suffer for what the oligarcs and Russian government have cooked up together, I'm sure the oligarc jews still are in the background although some of them might have went to other countries on a long vacation.

So I don't think Russia ever lost their jews.

Dude, stop please. Let's not go off the rails. I am also referring to @LongLeftFlankand anyone else continuing this line of conversation. 

[laribe]

That was Plan B

[keas66]

15 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

Dude, stop please. Let's not go off the rails. I am also referring to @LongLeftFlankand anyone else continuing this line of conversation. 

To be honest I was surprised that  this post was  left up and intact .

Edited April 2, 2022 by keas66

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, c3k said:

Referring to the Russians wanting a Javelin, from a supposed Ukrainian black market. Since China has been producing their own version of the Javelin, the HJ-12 (export version is HJ-12E) beginning ~2014, I would only assume that Russia has some samples at hand already.

 

According to Oryx, Russians/DPR captured at least 12 Javelin misiles, including 3 CLU in unknown conditions.

[Haiduk]

Russian vehicles in flooded area of Irpin' river, probably between Hostomel airfield and Moshchun village

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

130th recon battalion hit Russian BMP-3 (?) with ATGM. Big BOOM

 

[Armorgunner]

9 minutes ago, keas66 said:

To be honest I was surprised that  this post was  left up and intact .

Well, @LongLeftFlank joined 21 years ago. So to kick a member with that time here, I belive it needs moore than that. And a polite, but harsh reprimanding. Is enough!

[keas66]

19 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Well, @LongLeftFlank joined 21 years ago. So to kick a member with that time here, I belive it needs moore than that. And a polite, but harsh reprimanding. Is enough!

Apologies I was kind of referring to BornGinger's original post - The one that looked like an Excerpt from "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion"  - which curiously had some Russian Origins as I recall . As a complete aside - there is a good Novel by Umberto Eco  called The Prague Cemetery  which is an entertaining  (fictional) read on the subject .

Edited April 2, 2022 by keas66

[Armorgunner]

12 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Apologies I was kind of referring to BornGinger's original post - The one that looked like an Excerpt from "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion"  - which curiously had some Russian Origins as I recall . As a complete aside - there is a good Novel by Umberto Eco  called The Prague Cemetery  which is an entertaining  (fictional) read on the subject .

Cool, missed what BornGinger wrote!

[DMS]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is not Putin loots and murders. This is Russian soldiers. This is not "SOME".  This is "USUAL". The army is a cross section of society. So it reflects Russian society. So if I hear "common Russians shouldn't bear the brunt of sanctions", "stop bulling and cancelling of Russian" etc., I say "Too few sanctions. Too few cancelling. Too few rusophobia". Russia must be destroyed, derashizied and de-nuclearezied.   

My hate speech is finished.

Well, good to know. I guess I should support that disgusting rightist Putin, or Ukrainian "moderate nationalist" will  come and "de-russificate" me. Thank you for insight! Will by another 1000 of 7,62x39 ammo.

[BornGinger]

1 hour ago, BFCElvis said:

Dude, stop please. Let's not go off the rails

I didn't go off road anywhere or in any way. LongLeftFlank asked a question and I answered him with a history lection with information which should be common knowledge by now. But because of political correctness this information seems to be frowned upon.

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, womble said:

Rubbish. Utter poppycock. Sure, 1.4 million people all working together would be a big lever to unseat Putin, but he has more than half that number in the Federal Police alone, and has spent the last 20 years breaking up the opposition so it can't work effectively together. Also, that "1%" would be diluted among the entier population, so it would only take 2% actively opposing them to shut them down completely.

Don't get me wrong. I have great difficulty understanding how the Russian population as a whole can swallow Putin's self-contradictory nonsense justifications for the war to a sufficient degree that we see the bellicose support that we do, and I'm sure there are die-hard Russian Nationalists who truly think that Uncle Vlad is a saintly figure incapable of error, served by Angels. I think there does remain a sense of Russian exceptionalism that underlies their self-serving internal justifications for not "fixing or doing somefink" ever since the kleptocrats' thievery started undermining the initial successes of throwing off the old Soviet shackles. But I don't live there, and I can empathise with the wish to not be hospitalised by riot police thugs or sent off to the gulags. It must be difficult to see a way through for your average Russian-on-the-street, same as it does for your average Belarusian-on-the-street. And their leaders have been murdered, imprisoned or exiled as fast as they come forward, so there's nothing for opposition to crystallise around any more.

Edit: Russian opposition is another frog that has been gently warmed up and is about boiled to death by now.

While I don’t think Putin will be overthrown by a popularist movement, I wouldn’t use percentages to predict outcomes. When the English Colonists in North America (I.e. the 13 colonies) decided to “throw off the yoke of The Crown,” only one-third of the colonist population supported the break with England. Of that one-third that supported the break, only one-third actively supported the break. That means that only one-ninth of the population actively supported the Revolution. On the other hand, of the remaining two-thirds of the population who didn’t support the Revolution, one-third actively opposed the Revolution. That means that for every one colonist that actively supported the Revolution, three colonists actively opposed it! By those counts, the American Revolution should have failed, and very nearly did.

[danfrodo]

x

Edited April 2, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted

[The Steppenwulf]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

This feels very much like a deliberate "golden bridge" strategy by the UA.

The NW forces could have theoretically been trapped harder & sooner south of Ivankiv, but this would have trapped them in with all the civilians, still in range of Kiev, turning the area into their own Mariupol.

I think the UA made certain to keep a golden bridge through Ivankiv, for humanitarian reasons (to shorten their peoples suffering, not the Russians), to avoid a large scale "classic" kettle which would have required heavy investment (and inevitable losses) and to shut the attack down sooner.

Yes I think this was a quid pro quo situation and as I alluded to in my post earlier this morning, I suspect a mutual commitment was agreed in Istanbul along the lines of effecting a rapid Russian withdrawal for a UKR guarantee not to instantly advance on Ivankiv and kettle in Russian forces. I just don't see why the Kremlin would have made this withdrawal public knowledge without something in return - it would have otherwise been a cataclysmic own goal inviting huge military losses.

Also for UA, those forces around NW of Kiev (being mostly militia units) don't appear well equipped for a mobile op, so on UKRs part, they probably didn't consider it realistic to advance and seize ground in the manner that would be required.

Edited April 2, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[danfrodo]

53 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian vehicles in flooded area of Irpin' river, probably between Hostomel airfield and Moshchun village

 

wow, they don't even destroy the equipment.  they just walk away.  Some more nice stuff for the Ukrainian army.

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russians are terminally ill with rashism and chauvinism, this nation fell to the bottom. Only huge national catastrophe and de-rashization (like de-nazificztion for Geramany ) can bring them to their senses. And to do ot is a the duty of civilized world.     

Spot on. This cancer is too deeply rooted in their society. I don´t think there will ever be a turnaround for them anymore except when the majority of their people wants it, which seems unlikely to me in the nearer future. Until then only complete isolation and turning them into a 2nd North Korea can keep them at bay.

[danfrodo]

Russians have lived in a corrupt kleptocracy for generation after generation after generation.  So I am not surprised at the looting.  It flows from the top down.

But on the brighter side, the flood of weapons I've been praying for is starting to come.  I am seeing long range artillery, armored vehicles.  Hopefully next we'll see those Euro stockpiles of tanks moving east.  This could change things in a very dramatic way over the next couple months.  I am assuming Ukraine is not going to agree to let Russians stay on any land that it didn't already have on Feb 22, and will be wanting to drive them out.

Doing Steve's infantry-based local attacks + the ability to exploit w armored/mechanized troops sounds good to me. 

[DesertFox]

If so, thats good news. Sort of...

 

 

[Haiduk]

Reportedly in Izium area 95th air-assault brigade destroyed two Russian helicopters, which tried to land the troops. Targets as if were hit with ATGM Korsar. On the video is a smoke seen on the crashsite, on other video, soldier says that two choppers shot down and they go to clean up terrain from survived Russians airbornes. 

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[BornGinger]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

They carried all these goods by trucks. One of this truck, couldn't reach the border. Its seen, it carried three washing machines

I can imagine Russian soldiers going into an empty house, seeing a washing machine and go "Ey rebjata! Smotri-ka stolko veshej. Vse nam na khaljavu! Stiralka moja" Russians seem to love things they get "na khaljavu".

Edited April 2, 2022 by BornGinger

[Battlefront.com]

Footage posted by a Russian propagandist (seems likely Chechen).  It's from the infamous first battle of the Kherson bridge.  I've not seen this footage before.  It clearly shows that the "abandoned" vehicles had come under effective small arms fire.  This is consistent with some CCTV footage that was analyzed.

Given what's happened since this action, it's not important at all.  But as it was a topic of discussion for a lot of people at the time I think it's interesting.

Also, if you want a good example of what Russian propaganda looks like... check out the guy's other Tweets.  Some are absolutely hilarious.

 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

While I think @LongLeftFlank post was interesting and surely/hopefully >50% chance going forward, I'm not sure I agree with what you write here. I'm sorry to interrupt your George Washington dreams

If Ukraine manages to kick out Russia from it's lands (Crimea another story) and does good on the internal cleansing of kleptocracy and other undesirable stuff, I think it will be able to attract large investments.

Of course the EU will do something (as will US, UK, AUS, etc), they might even do a whole lot but they won't give a blanc cheque or give financial guarantees against Russian aggression (lol that would be really, really, stupid). The EU doesn't have unlimited moneys. So like LLF wrote Ukraine will also need private (for profit) investments. With a decent security lookout those will surely come!

Also the EU isn't a moneypot membership where if you fight hard against Russians, you are allowed to become member and scoop it till the bottom . And unlike many people in the world seem to think, winning a war against Russia doesn't mean you can enroll in any coalition/union without meeting the requirements. 

EU membership is imo probably in Ukraine's hands IF they manage to achieve all the required preconditions. Fast forward 5-10 years. Personally I hope they manage.

Sorry if I'm being negative but that's just not how the world works. And after reading for the n-th time how Americans (not only you ) write that Ukraine should be in the EU for fighting against Russia, I felt the need to address it. 

Did you see the head of the EU parliament in Kyiv yesterday or the day before? It was hurting the poor woman not to announce Ukraines membership while the battle is still raging.

Edited April 2, 2022 by dan/california
punctuation

[BFCElvis]

40 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

I didn't go off road anywhere or in any way. LongLeftFlank asked a question and I answered him with a history lection with information which should be common knowledge by now. But because of political correctness this information seems to be frowned upon.

Were either your comments or his have anything to do with troop movements in Ukraine? The performance of Russia's military? Or anything close to what we've said we want this thread to stick to? No. That means it was off the rails. See ya. 

For future reference, and advise for anyone else who's fortunate to get a warning rather than a vacation, the proper response to a post like I made is "sorry. My bad" and quitely move on. OR say nothing.

[Vet 0369]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

India will not. They were oriented to Russia and even didn't join to sanctions.

Haiduk, my reply has little to nothing to do with this post. I just want to say that I sincerely appreciate your balanced “reporting” here. While many others were indiscriminately skinning the s*%t in this thread, you have done an extraordinary job in not “getting into it.” I commend you.

To all the other posters on this thread, who do not live in Ukraine, and are not under shelling, and watching friends and loved ones blown apart by this invasion, “you don’t have a dog in this fight,” and I politely suggest that you STFU!

[The Steppenwulf]

 

23 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree.  I think the value of holding it was to buy time for the Ukrainians to create a new front and generally cause Russia heartburn.  Salients almost always fail eventually, so better to pull out before getting snipped off.

Specifically, Ukrainian forces in Isyum are in critical danger of being cut off due to successful Russian river crossing further to the south of the city, this RA bridgehead is being reinforced by other Russian units and advanced to secure a number of villages expanding that bridgehead and cannot be dislodged due to insufficient UA units.

This explains the fall-back. The concern is how the RA might develop this breakthrough attack into a full exploit given that the whole UKR line is up against the Severskyi -Donents river all the way to Slovyansk. 

Apparently, UA does have a couple of uncommitted units sitting deeper in defence in this area so I expect they will be thrown into this developing battle shortly.

Perhaps @Haiduk can provide more info on this development over the past few days. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by The Steppenwulf