How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

Sorry if this rehashes the previous conversation, but it is still relevant as a more recently stated position.. today.

Trump praises Russia's military record in argument to stop funding Ukraine's fight (msn.com)

SAVANNAH, Ga. (AP) — Donald Trump on Tuesday praised Russia's military record in historical conflicts and derided U.S. aid to Ukraine as he again insisted he would quickly end the war launched by Moscow's invasion if elected president.

Speaking in Savannah, Georgia, Trump mocked President Joe Biden's frequent refrain that the U.S. would back the Ukrainian armed forces until Kyiv wins the war. He raised two long ago conflicts to suggest Moscow would not lose — the former Soviet Union's role in defeating Adolf Hitler and the Nazis in World War II in the 1940s, and French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte's failed invasion of Russia more than a century earlier.

Trump insisted that the U.S. had “to get out," though he did not specify how he would negotiate an ending to U.S. involvement in the war.
"Biden says, ‘We will not leave until we win,’” Trump said, lowering his voice to mimic the Democratic president. “What happens if they win? That’s what they do, is they fight wars. As somebody told me the other day, they beat Hitler, they beat Napoleon. That’s what they do. They fight. And it’s not pleasant.”

An official on Trump's campaign also said Tuesday that the Republican nominee will not meet this week with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is visiting the U.S. to attend the opening of the U.N. General Assembly.

No meeting had been scheduled between the two, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal planning, despite a statement from Ukrainian officials last week that said Zelenskyy had planned to see the former president.

Trump on Tuesday repeated his characterization of Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman on Earth” for winning U.S. aid to help Ukraine.

“Every time Zelenskyy comes to the United States, he walks away with $100 billion,” Trump said, erroneously. The U.S. has provided more than $56 billion in security assistance since Russia invaded in 2022, according to the State Department.

Trump and Zelenskyy have a long history dating back to the former U.S. president's time in the White House. The then-president pressured Zelenskyy to open investigations of Biden and his son Hunter as well as a cybersecurity firm Trump falsely linked to Ukraine. That call — and the hold placed by the White House on $400 million in military aid — led to Trump's first impeachment.

Zelenskyy plans to meet with Biden and Harris in Washington.

Earlier this week, in an interview with The New Yorker, Zelenskyy implied Trump does not understand and oversimplifies the conflict, and said his running mate JD Vance is “too radical” and essentially advocates for Ukraine to “make a sacrifice” by “giving up its territories.”

On Monday, Trump's son Donald Jr. criticized Zelenskyy on X, reminding his followers that the suspect in his father's second assassination attempt had lambasted Trump's approach to foreign policy, including the war in Ukraine.

“So a foreign leader who has received billions of dollars in funding from American taxpayers, comes to our country and has the nerve to attack the GOP ticket for President?” he posted.

 

[Battlefront.com]

OK, so now if the other way off topic verbal slugfest could end, that would be great.

I will just say that the Finnish graph is a good thing to look at.  It shows that a country, which was previously deeply dependent upon Russian trade, can cut back and still not collapse.  It also shows that, even slowly, countries can reroute their import and export capacity to other areas of the globe given enough time and opportunities.  Maybe not 1:1, but it's not like there's no other markets out there.

This is true for most countries in Europe.  Certainly Germany.  Trying to say X is better than Y is kinda pointless.  Especially because it is the totality of sanctions against Russia that is important in the long run. 

This is not to say that all nations are doing all that they can to punish Russia economically (I would not point at Germany as the poster child for this statement!), but that in the end it hopefully will be enough.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

An official on Trump's campaign also said Tuesday that the Republican nominee will not meet this week with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,...

...despite a statement from Ukrainian officials last week that said Zelenskyy had planned to see the former president.

Earlier this week, in an interview with The New Yorker, Zelenskyy implied Trump does not understand and oversimplifies the conflict, and said his running mate JD Vance is “too radical” and essentially advocates for Ukraine to “make a sacrifice” by “giving up its territories.”

OK, putting aside repeating all the stuff we already know, this is interesting.  Note the timeline.

Me thinks Zelensky's statement this week might have something to do with Trump cancelling (or refusing, unsure which) a meeting with Zelensky. 

Objectively, it doesn't bode well that Trump not only won't meet with Zelensky while he's in town to seek support, but also feels the political freedom to attack Zelensky just for asking for support.

We saw what a single Republican in the House (Speaker Johnson) could do when he put his mind to it, it's not hard to imagine what Trump and Johnson could do if they worked together.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Good heavens, I work all day and come home to quite a row!  Glad Uncle Steve came in and cleaned it all up before I arrived.

Meanwhile, looks like Vuhledar is finally going to fall, not that it matters that much at this point.  Also looks like the crisis at prokrovsk is, well, stuck but still teetering on the edge.  Ukr making some noise up north, with some success in Vovchansk and some small flanking action to the left of the original bulge.  But in general, the war of attrition grinds on, sadly, with no real significant operational changes, while lots of people get maimed or killed and mountains of treasure are expended.  All because one psychopath is a psychopath.

[Fenris]

Looks like attack on Vuhledar proper is immanent.  RU bombarding the city.

Quote

Ukrainian military sources confirm that Russian units managed to enter the first outskirts of Vuhledar after months of intense fighting in this direction. As we have noted in one of our latest SitReps, the situation here deteriorated fast.

"There was no major offensive as such, small enemy assault groups managed to penetrate the city, so we can conclude that at the moment there is a grey area. They enter there, cannot gain a foothold, so they either withdraw or die."

 

Edited 16 hours ago by Fenris

[Fenris]

This is interesting.  Micro drone used to recon building interior.  I don't recall seeing footage of one of these being used before.

Quote

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces from the 8th Regiment are conducting reconnaissance using a Black Hornet Nano mini-drone and later clearing a building.

 

[fry30]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What is BS on all this is that the same critics would have been barking like mad seals if the US were stockpiling for WW3 for the last 30 years. The Cold War ended and many thought that was it. We did not need to worry about major wars anymore. There were enough dumb schleps willing to go fight the small wars, and we did not need warstocks for those little dances in the dust. Defence spending as a portion of GDP was shaped by political realities of the 90s, 00s and 10s.

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/military-spending-defense-budget

Since about 2014, we definitely should have started to shift. By 2017, it was damned clear we were entering a new game. But old habits die hard, and taxpayers are stingy as all hell. And the Defence spending we did have was not on peer-warfare capability or capacity. It was on big contracts aimed at creating jobs in places where the votes counted. All the while shifting manufacture to China and other parts of Asia to ensure better profit margins. 

So here we are in 2024 and the pundits are beating on drums "I told you so" but they really didn't. Nor do most academics, militaries, security agencies, or politicians really understand what this all means yet.  

Leading with a meme?

LLF is really having an effect on you. I'm pretty sure a well known Nietzsche quote applies here... 

 

[Sigh... reminder to self, always read to the last page before posting...] 

Edited 16 hours ago by fry30

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, putting aside repeating all the stuff we already know, this is interesting.  Note the timeline.

Me thinks Zelensky's statement this week might have something to do with Trump cancelling (or refusing, unsure which) a meeting with Zelensky. 

Objectively, it doesn't bode well that Trump not only won't meet with Zelensky while he's in town to seek support, but also feels the political freedom to attack Zelensky just for asking for support.

We saw what a single Republican in the House (Speaker Johnson) could do when he put his mind to it, it's not hard to imagine what Trump and Johnson could do if they worked together.

Steve

I think in time we will find out that Zelensky's supporters in Congress had been hearing disturbing things, Zelensky wangled an invite to the US and before he arrived the Trump campaign made it clear he was unwelcome. 

Put a pin in it.

[chuckdyke]

If NATO blows the opportunity to have Ukraine in its ranks. It will be on par as the Germans who saw them as subhuman during Barbarossa. That somebody like Trump is even in the running to become the next POTUS puzzles me. Somebody could enlighten me?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

This is interesting.  Micro drone used to recon building interior.  I don't recall seeing footage of one of these being used before.

 

That's certainly the first footage I've seen that isn't solidly non-combat or promotional.  How much this qualifies as combat footage is hard to say.

Notice that quite a bit of the footage seems to have been auto centered.  I've always wondered if these little drones can really keep a steady, solid flight path.  A stiff breeze should knock them around a bit I would think.

Steve

[ASL Veteran]

52 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I think in time we will find out that Zelensky's supporters in Congress had been hearing disturbing things, Zelensky wangled an invite to the US and before he arrived the Trump campaign made it clear he was unwelcome. 

Put a pin in it.

There is an explanation for what is going on with the Zelensky visit from a Republican perspective that diverges from the narrative on this forum, but I doubt it would alter anyone's view on it so I'll just let you guys speculate lol.  I have to admit that I'm asking myself what in the heck you guys are talking about, but maybe what you guys are saying does make sense from a certain point of view.

[Battlefront.com]

A Business Insider video doing a pretty decent job of running down the major things that the US (mostly) has supplied to Ukraine since the war started.  Most of it isn't very interesting to us, and in a few cases might make you chuckle (like saying ATGM and showing a Stinger!), but there's some pretty cool detailed footage of making M777 gun barrels and 155mm shells.  That's definitely worth a watch:

Steve

[Kraft]

54 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

There is an explanation for what is going on with the Zelensky visit from a Republican perspective that diverges from the narrative on this forum, but I doubt it would alter anyone's view on it so I'll just let you guys speculate lol.  I have to admit that I'm asking myself what in the heck you guys are talking about, but maybe what you guys are saying does make sense from a certain point of view.

But you'll just chime in to tell everyone you know better, not present an argument, and leave?

You can vote whatever you like but dont cushin yourself to the thought a vote for trump would not be a vote for abandoning Ukraine. 

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Kraft said:

But you'll just chime in to tell everyone you know better, not present an argument, and leave?

For the record, I'm fine with ASLVet posting a cogent counter argument for what is going on.  But if it turns into another Hunter Biden post then I hope he doesn't do it.  Because we've been through that several times, including a 2 week vacation for it.  My general Moderator's policy is if I have to impose a second vacation it is a permanent one.

Steve

[Eug85]

A well-known Ukrainian gun shop conducted its own tests of the effectiveness of a shotgun for combating FPV drones. The tests were conducted on a Turkish-made Hatsan BTS-12  semi-automatic model, which Ukraine actively purchases for this purpose. Earlier, the presenters noted that the "bullpup" design has an advantage over classic shotguns due to its compactness with a long barrel length (56 cm), which allows for increased pellet accuracy at long distances and thereby increases the likelihood of hitting such a fast target as a FPV. In addition, they installed a barrel extension, which further increased the pellet accuracy.

One of the shooters, a Ukrainian champion in shooting with a pump-action shotgun, said that he considers a semi-automatic shotgun more preferable than a pump-action shotgun for these purposes, since it allows even a poorly trained shooter to create a high density of fire.

At first, the tests were conducted on stationary targets, then they shot at a fast-flying FPV drone. As it turned out, up to 30 meters there is a certain kill zone where the probability of several pellets hitting the drone is especially high, while at 40 meters the efficiency drops sharply, only one or two pellets hit the drone.

Shot with 00, number 2, number 3 and number 5 high velocity pellets. Number 5 pellets increase the probability of hitting at long ranges. However, even several hits with small pellets did not bring down the drone.

At first, the shooting was conducted at a drone flying perpendicular to the shooter at a distance of 50 meters. The shooters made many shots but achieved only a few hits with small pellets, which did not cause any significant damage to the drone. However, the drone attack at the front ended with its downing on the first try, after it flew into the kill zone up to 30 meters with large 00 pellets.

The shooter noted that it is incredibly difficult to hit a drone flying perpendicular to the direction of fire at a distance of 50 meters, and even if you have extensive experience shooting at stationary targets at such a distance, shooting at a fast small target is a completely different experience and skills. He also noted that shooting down a drone flying at the shooter at a distance of 30 meters is not difficult.

The drone's resistance to small pellets is also surprising.

Edited 7 hours ago by Eug85

[Holien]

I mentioned Poland never stopping support for Ukraine even if America is dumb enough to do so.

This 5 minutes really shows why Poland isn't going to waver.

It's also why the West shouldn't waver and why ANYONE reading this who can vote in America and wants the war stopped should not vote the person who supports Russia.

Simple...

America might stop supporting Ukraine but the war will continue until Ukraine says otherwise.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Sigh.

Power and prudence in American statecraft 

Many of American statecraft’s greatest disasters flow from a lack of clarity concerning ends – or those purposes themselves becoming casualties of shifting political priorities at home.

Book review, but worth reading for a well-articulated critique of the 'Realist' school.

[LongLeftFlank]

https://www.politico.eu/article/kursk-russia-incursion-objections-war-in-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy/

Zaluzhny queried: once you have the bridgehead, what then? “He never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy,” said one of the officials. “He felt it was a gamble,” he said.

That open question aside, this bit was interesting:

His mobile armored vehicle convoy, spaced so they wouldn’t get caught altogether by any air or drone strikes, did what was asked of it in the early days of the offensive, tasked as it was to spearhead the drive rapidly forward and not get delayed by any resistance.

“We did capture, though,  200 Russian soldiers along the way.... [They] said they had been told that it was likely we would attack but they and their commanders didn’t believe it. Most were conscripts from the Urals or around Moscow,”

A key ingredient in the Ukrainians’ rapid advance, he said, was the use of First Person View (FPV) drones. “They were indispensable for us and helped us to prevent counterattacks forming.”

[ArmouredTopHat]

I have mixed feelings about these systems personally. They look good but a little too static / expensive to my liking. Hopefully an evolutionary step into something cheaper that can produced in larger quantities. 

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Holien said:

This 5 minutes really shows why Poland isn't going to waver.

It's also why the West shouldn't waver and why ANYONE reading this who can vote in America and wants the war stopped should not vote the person who supports Russia.

Simple...

America might stop supporting Ukraine but the war will continue until Ukraine says otherwise.

I get emotions, but things look differently from inside both UA and PL. We have currently in 5th or 6th crisis in relations from 2022 and while strategically we naturally supoport them, word is that even most pro-Ukraine politicians here complain about boorishness on behalf of Kyiv diplomats; the same SIkorski is constanly being villified by state-sponsored leaks in Ukrainian media as we speak. Societal mood also changed visibly over last year or so. In UA also- generally PL tend to be viewed, despite its massive contributions, as false ally, particulary over ugly, winter farmer row and Kyiv political journos constantly sniff ill-will "everywhere" here while politiccians try to jump over PL heads straight to Washngton on important border issues. Russian influence on public opinions also play its part; it's minor, but it builds over time. Fortunatelly, it doesn't translate into normal, daily contacts between people.

So strategic, aligning interest and normal solidarity with attacked nation- yes, but don't get yourself being fooled into "Slavic brotherhood" type of thinking.

 Also on side of recent discussion about Z's visit in US...you realize folks that Zelensky is not necessarly the one calling the shots in his country on his own, right? He is iconic figure in West, but who holds real reins of power in Ukraine is much more complicated, collective issue. Many of "brass-ball" foreign policies you are arguing have visible marks of Andriy Yermak, the guy my Ukrainian friends (who are also quite worried about recent Washington charge) call "real" president of UA... whatever the truth is, it's way more complicated than "Zelensky thought this, Zelensky did that".

https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2024-08-14/zelensky-yermak-and-ukraines-wartime-governance

Edited 6 hours ago by Beleg85

[ArmouredTopHat]

Pretty....interesting attempt by the Russians to 'disguise' their UAV to prevent an FPV strike, Wehrmacht cross included.

Not sure it worked. 

Edited 6 hours ago by ArmouredTopHat

[Eug85]

43 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Many of "brass-ball" foreign policies you are arguing have visible marks of Andriy Yermak, the guy my Ukrainian friends (who are also quite worried about recent Washington charge) call "real" president of UA... whatever the truth is, it's way more complicated than "Zelensky thought this, Zelensky did that".

I assume you have a lot of Poroshenko supporters among your friends. This is a typical conspiracy theory that is being promoted by Poroshenko's subordinate media to reduce Zelensky's popularity by making him look like a pathetic puppet.

One could agree with your statement, if not for the fact that initially the position of head of the office of President Zelensky was occupied by Andriy Bohdan. In those years, Poroshenko's bots called Bohdan the real leader of Ukraine. However, Bohdan has long been retired, and Zelensky continues to govern the state.

Edited 5 hours ago by Eug85

[The_Capt]

48 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://www.politico.eu/article/kursk-russia-incursion-objections-war-in-ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy/

Zaluzhny queried: once you have the bridgehead, what then? “He never got a clear answer from Zelenskyy,” said one of the officials. “He felt it was a gamble,” he said.

That open question aside, this bit was interesting:

His mobile armored vehicle convoy, spaced so they wouldn’t get caught altogether by any air or drone strikes, did what was asked of it in the early days of the offensive, tasked as it was to spearhead the drive rapidly forward and not get delayed by any resistance.

“We did capture, though,  200 Russian soldiers along the way.... [They] said they had been told that it was likely we would attack but they and their commanders didn’t believe it. Most were conscripts from the Urals or around Moscow,”

A key ingredient in the Ukrainians’ rapid advance, he said, was the use of First Person View (FPV) drones. “They were indispensable for us and helped us to prevent counterattacks forming.”

So to summarize:

- dispersed mass, not concentration due to environment

- RA knew but failed (or simply was unable) to do anything about it. The RA was likely not operationally surprised but dislocated instead.

- it was a walk over against conscripts, not intense direct fires combat.

- key element appears to be drone superiority which allowed for deep disruption and dislocation.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

13 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

I assume you have a lot of Poroshenko supporters among your friends. This is a typical conspiracy theory that is being promoted by Poroshenko's subordinate media to reduce Zelensky's popularity by making him look like a pathetic puppet.

One could agree with your statement, if not for the fact that initially the position of head of the office of President Zelensky was occupied by Andriy Bohdan. In those years, Poroshenko's bots called Bohdan the real leader of Ukraine. However, Bohdan has long been retired, and Zelensky continues to govern the state.

Let me assure you this is probably the prevalent view in Polish media right now or at least one of the most common ones. And we are quite close to the Ukraine, with very frequent contacts, so I consider this quite trustworthy. In particular Poroshenko has no influence at all over the information flowing from the Ukraine to Poland.

[Beleg85]

29 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

I assume you have a lot of Poroshenko supporters among your friends. This is a typical conspiracy theory that is being promoted by Poroshenko's subordinate media to reduce Zelensky's popularity by making him look like a pathetic puppet.

One could agree with your statement, if not for the fact that initially the position of head of the office of President Zelensky was occupied by Andriy Bohdan. In those years, Poroshenko's bots called Bohdan the real leader of Ukraine. However, Bohdan has long been retired, and Zelensky continues to govern the state.

Not really; I am fully aware of dirt (and low quality of it) that Poroshenko camp is throwing at president. Most of my Ukrainian contacts are rather apolytical, some even Maidan participants. Two are completelly cynical at literally everyone in UA politcial class (they did respect only Zaluzhny), claiming they all betrayed original idea of Revolution of Dignity. Both Zelensky's and Poroshenko's parties alike.

Also most insightful observers of internal UA politics seem to support this view that power there is not wielded by one guy and his personal sympathies/antypathies. Zelensky is not a puppet (he also get more matured over course of this war...but also more tired) but neither he is single player.

My only point here is to be aware that Ukrainian political decision making is not as monolitical as headlines in many western newspapers assume. It's not only about Z's and his ideas/actions. We can agree though that recent stance in US elections is considered quite risky. Just on principles, nobody likes if other country meddles in his own election process; many in Ukraine get that even if they hate Trump and his stance regarding Ukraine.

Edited 5 hours ago by Beleg85