How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[A Canadian Cat]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

Come on now...Russia is *not* just held together by force. 

But what is Russia in this context? I think that is where we are tripping up. If you think Russia is the entire geography that made up the USSR then no that really was held together by force. If you think Russia is the border it has now (say the internationally recognized bolder) then I still think there are parts being held together by force. If you think Russia is some core around the Moscow area then sure you are right.

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

While I do agree that Russians are predisposed to (once again) take the easy road of authoritarian in order to stabilize daily life, I think he's wrong to assume that the ONLY one that can offer this is centralized Moscow rule.

Exactly. A failure of the current Russian state into a smaller Russia and several other countries is one way this all could go.

Don't forget most people here are not predicting that one and only one scenario will unfold. Several of us have a scenario we think is most likely but even then we all know there are multiple ways this can fail all the way from Putin replaced by someone similar and not much changes to societal collapse and chaos.

Personally I'd be happy with the smaller Russia and a few new countries scenario rather than the chaos or nothing changes scenarios but I don't know which it will be. It really feels like some kind of change is coming though.

[Holien]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Kh-22 and Kh-32 Missiles:

Launched: 362

Intercepted: 2 (0.55%)

These missiles, launched from Tu-22M3 bombers, require modern interception systems due to their speed and trajectory

Hopefully the F16 might be a modern interceptor for these.

Really grim and yet interesting stats.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Your point was not subtle even if you were trying to be.  Of course the Declaration (my bad) did not go well for all "Yankees" who were not male and white, so as a universal  "enlightened" view of how society should work it was great unless one was Native, Black, Mexican or even Irish.  The seeds of that inequality and its effects contributed to the US Civil War.

So before we start feeling all clever we might want to consider the realities around that Declaration and the fact that they might not translate to a nation on the other side of the globe with a completely different set of problems and cultures.

As to solutions and the future....not worse. That is where we are at.  Anyone else who is spouting visions of whatever they are smoking is not being pragmatic or playing in "realpolitik".  We can hope for a Russian offramp that leads them to a slow Ottoman decline.  We can hope for a new regime with cleaner hands that we can try to renormalize with (as this thing drags out I am more skeptical).  We can plan to rebuild Ukraine and pull it into the Western Sphere both in security and economies. I think we are aiming for 1905 here and not 1917, with a view to risk managing in the future.

And here is the really scary truth - even if we manage to keep the nuclear power club exactly as it is...one day one of these power will fail.  No society in human history has lasted forever. Look at any ancient civilization like the Egyptians, they collapse more than once.  China...same. US, one day it too will whither and die. So you wanna be "strategic" stop reading Jefferson and start reading up on plate spinning, because that is where we are.

Well, your aversion to anything American is duly noted, not to mention fashionable, and even a patriotic duty in 'America's hat.'

But the key point, in spite of your attempts to deflect, is that strivings for national self determination and the universal Natural Rights of Man are, well, natural in the face of murderous oppression and callous incompetence, from Belarus to Bangladesh. And those particular spinning plates ain't gonna stop spinning just because it's inconvenient for statesmen in the Five Eyes. Nor can it all be dismissed as a fig leaf for new flavours of oppression.

So fine, let's quote John Locke instead of far-better-writer-but-evidently-to-be-canceled-because-wicked-slave-rapist Jefferson)

Sect. 225. Secondly, I answer, such revolutions happen not upon every little mismanagement in public affairs. Great mistakes in the ruling part, many wrong and inconvenient laws, and all the slips of human frailty, will be born by the people without mutiny or murmur. But if a long train of abuses, prevarications and artifices, all tending the same way, make the design visible to the people, and they cannot but feel what they lie under, and see whither they are going; it is not to be wondered, that they should then rouze themselves, and endeavour to put the rule into such hands which may secure to them the ends for which government was at first erected; and without which, ancient names, and specious forms, are so far from being better, that they are much worse, than the state of nature, or pure anarchy; the inconveniencies being all as great and as near, but the remedy farther off and more difficult.

So just trying to put 'All The Russias' into a single Moscow-managed box on the 'better the devil we know' principle will simply align us with oppressors.

... TL:DR, the road to long term stability in 'Eastern (i.e. non-Catholic) Slavdom' may not always run through Moscow.

Anyway, I think I've pounded this nail through the board now. Cheers.

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Twisk said:

If you watch the video at the 6 second mark the BMP-2 fires at the Ukrainian vehicle.

Despite discission in twitter, alas, I tend to consider this was Ukrainian BMP-1 (not BMP-2). The matter not only in V or triangle mark. Russians post such photos, claiming that was a triangle, but one of it side was closed by a gun + quality losses of video = imagination of V. Also they claim their troops long time ago don't use V, but V in the squre. 

Our sources post, for example such photo of Russian UAZ as if from Kursk with clear V

But. The tent type of BMP is very similar on Ukrainian ones, which were spotted on meny vehicles. Russians mostly uses cope cages. And more - behavior of Kozak crew. They have much better spotting capabilities, but completely didn't react on approaching of BMP from front-left. So, they probably had seen it marks (triangle on the sidehull) and didn't consider coming armor like a threat. The video has obvious cutting between BMP came on crossroad and Russian BMP-3 opens fire, so hard to say what happened in this time. But only after first shots of BMP-3 Kozak's driver started roll back.

About shot in Kozak at 0:06 - I think BMP shot at some target forward, so commander and gunner watched the enemy forward, and too late had seen BMP-3 from the left, when the driver mistakingly has driven on open space, though some barn covered BMP-1, during it was moving along the road

 

[Haiduk]

The trailer of coming video of 3rd assault brigade. They have finished four-day operation, where they threw back Russian troops of 20th CAA, advancing to Makiivka (Svatove direction).

This part of frontline not so "popular", but here Russian pressure also gradually led to threat of coming the enemy to Zherebets river. Counter strike of 3rd assault brigade allowed to eliminate this threat. Brigade's comamnd claimed they pushed back the enemy on 2 km and captured their battalion defense area. They also claimed it was very complicated operation, preparing and conducting in full OpSec. Interesting that our troops attaked Russians, who had advantage in personnel 2.5:1 and heavy support.

Brother-in-arms of 3rd assault  - "Azov" brigade also have some succesful advance in SE part of Sriblianske forestry (Kreminna direction). 

Edited August 22 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We need to come up with a clear picture of Russia.

Such a thing exists?  There is no single picture, there is no simple answer.  It's like some quantum thing, where it's both a wave and a particle and only becomes one or the other when fixed by an event.  People are 'apathetic' or perhaps they also know what they say and do don't matter, except that it could get them in trouble w security apparatus.  Perhaps they feel they have so little agency when it comes to their totalitarian world that they just give in.  Like folks being walked to a trench where they'll be shot -- they could run, they could fight back, but either way they are simply shot.

(edit: oh geez, I just realized that what I wrote above is.....apathy   Reminder to self -- think it through, dummy) 

But if Putin died or was overthrown tomorrow, would they just sit there?  Or would they come into the streets to see if the RU-gestapo is still cracking down on them?

Edited August 22 by danfrodo

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

All of the above...as the world is. 

And if I throw one of you out of the helicopter….I am the bad guy.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well, your aversion to anything American is duly noted, not to mention fashionable, and even a patriotic duty in 'America's hat.'

But the key point, in spite of your attempts to deflect, is that strivings for national self determination and the universal Natural Rights of Man are, well, natural in the face of murderous oppression and callous incompetence, from Belarus to Bangladesh. And those particular spinning plates ain't gonna stop spinning just because it's inconvenient for statesmen in the Five Eyes. Nor can it all be dismissed as a fig leaf for new flavours of oppression.

So fine, let's quote John Locke instead of far-better-writer-but-evidently-to-be-canceled-because-wicked-slave-rapist Jefferson)

Sect. 225. Secondly, I answer, such revolutions happen not upon every little mismanagement in public affairs. Great mistakes in the ruling part, many wrong and inconvenient laws, and all the slips of human frailty, will be born by the people without mutiny or murmur. But if a long train of abuses, prevarications and artifices, all tending the same way, make the design visible to the people, and they cannot but feel what they lie under, and see whither they are going; it is not to be wondered, that they should then rouze themselves, and endeavour to put the rule into such hands which may secure to them the ends for which government was at first erected; and without which, ancient names, and specious forms, are so far from being better, that they are much worse, than the state of nature, or pure anarchy; the inconveniencies being all as great and as near, but the remedy farther off and more difficult.

So just trying to put 'All The Russias' into a single Moscow-managed box on the 'better the devil we know' principle will simply align us with oppressors.

... TL:DR, the road to long term stability in 'Eastern (i.e. non-Catholic) Slavdom' may not always run through Moscow.

Anyway, I think I've pounded this nail through the board now. Cheers.

FFS, we are trying to contain the largest conventional war in Europe since WW2, while trying to save one nation from an irrational dictator, while trying to keep his nation from imploding…and you want to raise the flag of universal Slavic suffrage, quoting Jefferson…and now freakin Locke. Wanna roll out a few more Enlightenment White Christs for us?  I am waiting for JJ Rousseau to round out your Trinity.

While we all desperately hold a fervent hope that all Russians can be truly free…or at least as free as a 17-19th century white man. I am not sure any of this is really helpful.  We need to 1) contain this current war…it cannot spread or escalate beyond the box it is in. 2) Establish conditions for Ukrainian sovereignty and self-governance, along with territorial integrity and enduring security. 3) Integration of Ukraine into the Western economic and security sphere - be it through several mechanisms. 4) Contain Russia until such a point that we can either chart a course to renormalization or make it another power poles problem to manange.

As to some weird White Man’s Burden to civilized or save Russia…good luck with that but I think we might have a hard time getting nations onboard with this idea after this little dance.

[Holien]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And if I throw one of you out of the helicopter….I am the bad guy

Yes but I know a good lawyer...

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

FFS, we are trying to contain the largest conventional war in Europe since WW2, while trying to save one nation from an irrational dictator, while trying to keep his nation from imploding…and you want to raise the flag of universal Slavic suffrage, quoting Jefferson…and now freakin Locke. Wanna roll out a few more Enlightenment White Christs for us?  I am waiting for JJ Rousseau to round out your Trinity.

While we all desperately hold a fervent hope that all Russians can be truly free…or at least as free as a 17-19th century white man. I am not sure any of this is really helpful.  We need to 1) contain this current war…it cannot spread or escalate beyond the box it is in. 2) Establish conditions for Ukrainian sovereignty and self-governance, along with territorial integrity and enduring security. 3) Integration of Ukraine into the Western economic and security sphere - be it through several mechanisms. 4) Contain Russia until such a point that we can either chart a course to renormalization or make it another power poles problem to manange.

As to some weird White Man’s Burden to civilized or save Russia…good luck with that but I think we might have a hard time getting nations onboard with this idea after this little dance.

Wow, you are totally hip to the Kamalaspeak, complete with the dismissive 'weird' tag being applied to sh*tcan anything older than Taylor's 1989 album, or words having more than 4 syllables.  Civilisation is just sooooo boring, and what has it really done for us after all?

You can certainly talk down to the rest of us all day long on military matters, but as to  geopolitics and the aspirations of human beings, you're just another opinion and lived experience among those of many here. So smashmouth bullying isn't gonna work, and I'll continue to disagree with you, thanks.

[Fenris]

Two examples of improvisation.

Evolution of the MBT.  I imagine they're almost completely blind.

Quote

Russian craftsmen presented a new generation of homemade survivability improvements for the T-80 tank. 

This one genuinely helps with survival - it even has a fold-out bed inside the metal shell.

Second instance of a helo being used for anti-drone role.  Gunner is squeezed in between the pilot consoles in the nose of their Mi-8

Quote

The crew of a Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter shot down a Russian UAV with fire from a mounted machine gun as part of combined air defense operations.

 

Edited August 22 by Fenris

[The_Capt]

27 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, you are totally hip to the Kamalaspeak, complete with the dismissive 'weird' tag being applied to sh*tcan anything older than Taylor's 1989 album, or words having more than 4 syllables.  Civilisation is just sooooo boring, and what has it really done for us after all?

You can certainly talk down to the rest of us all day long on military matters, but as to  geopolitics and the aspirations of human beings, you're just another opinion and lived experience among those of many here. So smashmouth bullying isn't gonna work, and I'll continue to disagree with you, thanks.

Well normally I would simply shake my head and walk on, but your discourse is directly linked to strategic thinking on a modern day war.  This has nothing to do with “anti-civilization”, “anti-US” or “anti-Freedom” it has to do with an overall strategic approach to the problem of modern day Russia - a great nuclear power that decided to start a quagmire war that may break them. They invaded another sovereign state without any justification, committed horrendous warcrime in the execution, neutered the UN, cut ties with Europe, threatens more neighbours, and general is intent on driving off a cliff so some twit can pretend to be a modern day Tzar.

And now you want to talk strategic solutions to somehow enfranchise those poor Russians yearning to be free while quoting 2nd year poli-sci staples that really do not apply at the moment.  I am as at least as well read on history as you, been on the planet as long (or close enough too) but because I think your position is off note, I am now a lost thirty something?  

Let’s drag this back to the topic of this thread…this war. If a Russian George/Georgia Washington shows up and can lead his/her nation toward a great Russian Experiment in democracy, without lighting off a Civil War…hey man, fantastic.  And frankly we in the West should support that if it happens. But as a primary strategy it is right next to planning on the Second Coming.  As I have demonstrated through numerous citations and references - Russia is not a stable state and it is getting worse. We have to manage it thusly. I agree that it is not going to go Mad Max tomorrow, and am willing to accept that there are competing negative and positive pressures at play here…as much as it pains me to agree billindc is correct.

But to play this war like there is some inner Russia who is just itching for a peaceful democratic revolution is just unworkable. I mean what do we do with that?  What is your theory of success here?  How does it translate into action?  Break Putin faster so we these freedom loving Russians can peacefully liberate themselves quicker?  Deliver freedom to Russia by arming Ukraine to the teeth?  Seriously, what are you proposing here?  As to “disagreeing with me” well my position is that Russia needs a deliberate and cautious approach as we navigate what looks like its own suicide - the degree of which is unknown. You disagree with that? Ok, what else do you have?

Edited August 23 by The_Capt

[Blazing 88's]

39 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wow, you are totally hip to the Kamalaspeak, complete with the dismissive 'weird' tag being applied to sh*tcan anything older than Taylor's 1989 album, or words having more than 4 syllables.  Civilisation is just sooooo boring, and what has it really done for us after all?

You can certainly talk down to the rest of us all day long on military matters, but as to  geopolitics and the aspirations of human beings, you're just another opinion and lived experience among those of many here. So smashmouth bullying isn't gonna work, and I'll continue to disagree with you, thanks.

Kamalaspeak > trumpslur, very "bigly"

Edited August 23 by Blazing 88's

[chuckdyke]

26 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

Kamalaspeak > trumpslur, very "bigly"

When was the US really great? I agree with the greatest generation when they beat the common enemy with the UK and the USSR. The USSR included the Ukraine too in those days. Is the right side of US politics thinking among those lines. Control Europe with a newer version of the USSR? Afterall one of the candidates calls Putin a terrific guy and a socalled journalist also suggested we assist Ukraine why not Russia? The EEC shouldn't take the support of the US for granted. I am also just another opinion. 

[LongLeftFlank]

50 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well normally I would simply shake my head and walk on, but your discourse is directly linked to strategic thinking on a modern day war.  This has nothing to do with “anti-civilization”, “anti-US” or “anti-Freedom” it has to do with an overall strategic approach to the problem of modern day Russia - a great nuclear power that decided to start a quagmire war that may break them. They invaded another sovereign state without any justification, committed horrendous warcrime in the execution, neutered the UN, cut ties with Europe, threatens more neighbours, and general is intent on driving off a cliff so some twit can pretend to be a modern day Tzar.

And now you want to talk strategic solutions to somehow enfranchise those poor Russians yearning to be free while quoting 2nd year poli-sci staples that really do not apply at the moment.  I am as at least as well read on history as you, been on the planet as long (or close enough too) but because I think your position is off note, I am now a lost thirty something?  

Let’s drag this back to the topic of this thread…this war. If a Russian George/Georgia Washington shows up and can lead his/her nation toward a great Russian Experiment in democracy, without lighting off a Civil War…hey man, fantastic.  And frankly we in the West should support that if it happens. But as a primary strategy it is right next to planning on the Second Coming.  As I have demonstrated through numerous citations and references - Russia is not a stable state and it is getting worse. We have to manage it thusly. I agree that it is not going to go Mad Max tomorrow, and am willing to accept that there are competing negative and positive pressures at play here…as much as it pains me to agree billindc is correct.

But to play this war like there is some inner Russia who is just itching for a peaceful democratic revolution is just unworkable. I mean what do we do with that?  What is your theory of success here?  How does it translate into action?  Break Putin faster so we these freedom loving Russians can peacefully liberate themselves quicker?  Deliver freedom to Russia by arming Ukraine to the teeth?  Seriously, what are you proposing here?  As to “disagreeing with me” well my position is that Russia needs a deliberate and cautious approach as we navigate what looks like its own suicide - the degree of which is unknown. You disagree with that? Ok, what else do you have?

Well first, thanks for a more readable post. I suspect nobody here disagrees with you that a complex challenge lies ahead, fraught with risk for all of humanity.

But 'deliberate and cautious' appears to mean to you mainly 'managing the head Orc in Moscow', who sits on the all important nukes. And that head Orc is going to be no Jeffersonian democrat. He will be fighting to retain brutal autocratic control over as much of the old empire as he can, regardless of what his subjects may think.

So preserving that kind of 'stability' is going to create some very ugly choices for us if mishandled, or even if adroitly handled, especially when the rebels espouse Locke rather than Lenin.

And the West seems to be a bit hit or miss where picking those clients, and then sticking by them, is concerned.

This piece is interesting, and gives an idea of what I mean.

Ukraine’s Offensive Bolsters Russia’s Separatists (FP, defirewalled)

Since the 1990s, the official U.S. position on the conflict has been simple: “We consider Chechnya a part of Russia.”

Yes, Pandora's box, absolutely. But how many millions of good people get thrown under the 'stability' bus? And does it even work in the end?  I don't have answers to any of that.

Edited August 23 by LongLeftFlank

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

as much as it pains me to agree billindc is correct.

not sure if he heard that over the noise of the chopper as he was "exited" through the side door.  

Now can you two get a room?  I am getting ready to hear some real kamalaspeaks while hoping the orange nimrod will stuff a few more big macs in his pie hole hoping it will occupy his hands enough to stay off social media.

Edited August 23 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, Pandora's box, absolutely. But how many millions of good people get thrown under the 'stability' bus? And does it even work in the end?  I don't have answers to any of that.

Nobody does because there's far more at stake than just the suffering of others.  There's the suffering of one's own to consider.

If the goal of the Western Allies in 1945 was to have the most stable, peaceful long term peace in Europe then they should have worked to militarily defeat the Soviet Union right then and there.  Even to the point of using H-Bombs.  Because no regime in modern times has caused as much misery death as the Soviet Union.  Yup, even more than the Nazis.

But what would hat have cost the West to do that?  Certainly a lot of its own people dead in the process.  It might not even have worked.  Which is why the option to go straight after the Soviet Union was shelved and we got the Cold War instead.  The West suffered far less than it would have if it had gone to war against the Soviet Union, but on the other side of the Iron Curtain things were bad for decades.

The problem we have in front of us is that there's no practical way to end the Russian regime and wind up with something better.  The best the West can hope for is a Russia so hobbled by its own internal strife that it wouldn't be able to bother the West for a decade or two.  It sucks to be a Russian in this scenario, but if they prefer that to doing something to better their lot in life then... well... that's their decision to make.

Steve

[sburke]

Russian Town Can't Cope With Troop Losses—'Crowd Funding for Body Bags' (msn.com)

 

Residents of a Russian town in the Siberian region of Irkutsk are reported to be crowdfunding for body bags amid a mounting death toll in the war in Ukraine.

The developments were first reported by the People of Baikal Telegram channel, which describes itself as an independent media outlet that tells the stories of those from the Irkutsk region and the republic of Buryatia in eastern Siberia. X (formerly Twitter) account ChrisO_Wiki, a self-described independent military historian and researcher who posts updates on the war in Ukraine, shared the channel's posts on the platform.

"So many Russian soldiers have been killed in the Irkutsk region that the local authorities have run out of money to transport them back to their relatives. Local people are now having to crowd-fund for body bags and the transportation of corpses," he wrote on Thursday.
Residents of the town of Ust-Kut in the Irkutsk region are asking for the donations for body bags to transport the bodies of their fallen men in the war in Ukraine. Russia's Ministry of Defense funds only the cost of transportation to airfields "capable of handling military transport planes," said ChrisO_Wiki.

"However, these may be hundreds of kilometers from where the relatives live, necessitating the use of ground transportation as well."

The town of Ust-Kut is located some 300 kilometers (186 miles) from the nearest military airfield, which is in the city of Bratsk in the Irkutsk region.

The transportation of the bodies of fallen troops to their homes was previously covered in the Irkutsk region by the 'Zvezvda' fund, "but this has passed to municipal educational funds – which have run out of money," ChrisO_Wiki added.

He said that the wife of soldier who was mobilized for the war in Ukraine took to social media "appealing for help, not for judgment." She said that the Russian Defense Ministry wasn't doing enough to help transport the bodies of troops killed in battle.

"We need a large number of pathological bags for evacuations! It will take a long time to wait for them to be provided. When leaving for evacuation, they may take the usual number, but in reality it will turn out that there are more than usual," the woman wrote.

 

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And if I throw one of you out of the helicopter….I am the bad guy.

Guys like me are waiting it out in Falls Church when that stuff happens. 

[billbindc]

"As President I will strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies." 

VP Kamala Harris tonight. I think we know where she stands now.

 

[Joe982]

How do the Russian soldiers get anywhere near the dead?

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The best the West can hope for is a Russia so hobbled by its own internal strife that it wouldn't be able to bother the West for a decade or two.

In a decade or two demographics says there will be an awful lot less white Russians, and a decent amount more muslims. I doubt there will be a Russia in two decades to hold together regardless of our hopes and dreams.

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It sucks to be a Russian in this scenario, but if they prefer that to doing something to better their lot in life then... well... that's their decision to make.

Rich Russians don’t care. They will be welcomed everywhere with no qualms. Sucks for the poors but nobody cares about them.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

In a decade or two demographics says there will be an awful lot less white Russians, and a decent amount more muslims. I doubt there will be a Russia in two decades to hold together regardless of our hopes and dreams.

True, and it's the one area that both Russia and the West seem to agree upon... kick the can down the road.

As I said in the years leading up to this war, if Putin went "all in" it would be a regime ending decision.  I am still very confident that will be the case, ultimately.  It would be good if the West fully grasped this and started acting like it's already in motion and withholding ATACMS or what not isn't going to avoid it.

3 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Rich Russians don’t care. They will be welcomed everywhere with no qualms. Sucks for the poors but nobody cares about them.

Rich Russians care about the regime's stability because their wealth, especially now, is tied up in Russia.  When it's in Russia it's subject to the whims of the Tzar and the criminality of the system.  Which includes windows and sudden negative health events.

But yeah, nobody cares about the rest of the Russian population, except as a means of extracting wealth.

The next regime will probably look like a US corporate raider ("equity firm", as they say now).  They will stabilize things just enough to extract wealth from it.  That is never good for the pee-ons.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

Kamalaspeak? Nah. "Let's not support Ukraine too much so Russia dorsn't cause us trouble even if it destroys lives of millions of people whose only crime is being born Easyern Europe" is more of a Kissinger line and he was no Democrat.

(Also realpolitik = belief that having ideals and acting on them is stupid and everyone should be out for just themselves and have no problem cooperating with evil like Russia ... unsurprisingly pushed mostly by Russia and their supporters)

[Aragorn2002]

11 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Such a thing exists?  There is no single picture, there is no simple answer.  It's like some quantum thing, where it's both a wave and a particle and only becomes one or the other when fixed by an event.  People are 'apathetic' or perhaps they also know what they say and do don't matter, except that it could get them in trouble w security apparatus.  Perhaps they feel they have so little agency when it comes to their totalitarian world that they just give in.  Like folks being walked to a trench where they'll be shot -- they could run, they could fight back, but either way they are simply shot.

(edit: oh geez, I just realized that what I wrote above is.....apathy   Reminder to self -- think it through, dummy) 

But if Putin died or was overthrown tomorrow, would they just sit there?  Or would they come into the streets to see if the RU-gestapo is still cracking down on them?

Dan, last week I've watched this documentary about a remarkable Russian historian and hero named Yuri Dimitriev who refuses to bend for the criminals. His 'crime'? Trying to find a give a name to the hundreds of thousands of Stalin's executed victims who now rest in mass graves in the endless forests of Karelia. 

They are now trying to break Yuri by accusing him of children porno and other nonsense. He's in jail, no doubt he will die there. I was very impressed by this documentary and it reminded me of the fact that there still are decent Russians. Yuri Dimitriev, one of Russia's silent heroes. Let's not forget this man.

Higly recommended: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27989206/

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/content/yuri-dmitriev-affair

Edited August 23 by Aragorn2002
Adding something