How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

Mariupol is in ruins and I regret I never had the chance to visit south coast of Ukraine. The greek community there dates from the ancient times, and expanded after the fall of Constantinople and Byzantium from people that fled the ottoman purges. So much history lost in a few weeks, so sad. I wonder how trapped people there can still cope with no water, food or heating. The greek consul there was the last EU diplomat to leave Ukraine, and he compared Mariupol to cities that were wiped out from war, like Guernica, Aleppo Grozny, Stalingrad...

[DesertFox]

@Haiduk: Can you give us an idea what we see here? The first 2 vids in this thread. Thanks!

 

 

[akd]

@sburke, okay, this one is a bit sketchy, but fun.  37th Guards Separate Motor Rifle Brigade commander Col. Yuri Medvedev, hospitalized in Belarus after being intentionally run over by one of his own soldiers:

Edited March 23, 2022 by akd

[billbindc]

 

Sweeney driving out to where the action was. Looks like confirmation that the thrust towards Brovary is done. 

[acrashb]

If this is accurate, it looks like RU forces are pressing civilian vehicles into service.  Notice the "Z" marking on street buses. This would be a clear sign of imminent collapse of the RA army's ability to fight.  Wait, I just noticed the date, March 6, so something else is going on.
 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by acrashb

[John Kettler]

51 minutes ago, Taranis said:

elarus expels most Ukrainian diplomats from its territory
“Belarus has decided to reduce the number of Ukrainian diplomats on its territory. This measure aims to put an end to the non-diplomatic activities of a number of staff members of Ukrainian diplomatic institutions,” Belarusian diplomacy spokesman Anatoli Glaz announced on Wednesday.

Taranis,

This is a euphemism asserting some of the diplomatic staff is spying. Now, this could never happen, which is why the CIA doesn't, ahem, have stations inside US embassies all around the world and doesn't, ahem, have its own people operating under diplomatic cover, which is of course also the case with the Russians and other nations, right? 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Lethaface]

57 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Crazy plot twist by Putin: Unfriendly nations have to pay in Ruble for gas. That would undermine the sanctions and it shows Putin breaking the contracts. The long-term contracts are put up with € or $ as currency. 
The EU will have its gas stop sooner than later. 

Indeed it's an interesting move. However it would also mean less hard currency for Russia to trade with on the black market (or with other countries that don't implement sanctions). 

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Indeed it's an interesting move. However it would also mean less hard currency for Russia to trade with on the black market (or with other countries that don't implement sanctions). 

Correct. It's a low raise by the poorest better on the pot.

[Heirloom_Tomato]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

Watched an interesting interview with General Berger and he said if you put all of this into a computer analysis it would come out as a Russian victory, but computer models cannot accurately predict the human element…

Somebody needs to tell him, cough @Battlefront.com cough, that he has the wrong computer analysis. 

Take any CM title, seriously any CM title, and play an Attack Quick Battle. Choose mechanized/armoured/motorized attackers. Be generous and say 20% are Crack, 30% Veteran, 30% Regular and 20% Green. Set morale to High, Normal, Low and Poor respectively. Leadership levels from +1 to -2. Give them one off map battery for every Company.

For the defenders, make sure they have an abundance of AT assets. I think the force skill level can be the same, however the leadership should all be +1 or better and morale a mix of Extreme and High. One off map battery for every two Companies.

Choose a large rural map, fields and forests with a small town or two. A river or a couple of streams would be ideal. Set the ground conditions to muddy, cool or cold and light rain.

Play the battle as the attacker, on iron mode, ideally with enemy icons off.

Let us all know how that turns out.

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke, okay, this one is a bit sketchy, but fun.   

oh yeah this has to go on the list in a new fragging incidents section 

[Sarjen]

16 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Indeed it's an interesting move. However it would also mean less hard currency for Russia to trade with on the black market (or with other countries that don't implement sanctions). 

On the contrary. Where do EU get the Rubles from? From the CBR. And with what currency? In € or $. So the CBR is getting the hard currency and the Rubles for their gas. Thats a sick plot twist and i think no one saw this coming. Now the EU and all countries in it have to decide. Stop importing gas or double financing Russias war.

[Commanderski]

" Kremlin under attack: Petrol bomb hurled at Putin's HQ – angry Russian uprising erupts
THE KREMLIN is under attack, with footage appearing to show a man hurling a petrol bomb at Vladimir Putin's home."

It was only one person and appears not to have done much damage but is an indication of the citizens not being too happy with Putin.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1585064/Kremlin-attack-petrol-bomb-video-Vladimir-Putin-home-Russia-protest-Moscow-latest

[keas66]

Kind of curious as to why Israel seems to be trending towards support for Russia versus  Ukraine .

- Supplying Drone tech to Russia

- Refusing to send weapon systems  to Ukraine

- Refusing spyware software sales to Ukraine

I mean at some point they must think this is going to self-resolve and  leave them happily on the fence  ?

I see some  stories about  Field hospitals and other humanitarian support on the ground  in Ukraine but that seems to be more  to be able to say they are helping in some way .

Israel doesn't need Gas from Russia - so whats the hold that Russia has over  Israel ?

Is it just about co-operation in Syria ?  - and really  - what does that say about the bed fellows they choose to lie with  ?

Puzzled .

[Lethaface]

3 minutes ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

Somebody needs to tell him, cough @Battlefront.com cough, that he has the wrong computer analysis. 

Take any CM title, seriously any CM title, and play an Attack Quick Battle. Choose mechanized/armoured/motorized attackers. Be generous and say 20% are Crack, 30% Veteran, 30% Regular and 20% Green. Set morale to High, Normal, Low and Poor respectively. Leadership levels from +1 to -2. Give them one off map battery for every Company.

For the defenders, make sure they have an abundance of AT assets. I think the force skill level can be the same, however the leadership should all be +1 or better and morale a mix of Extreme and High. One off map battery for every two Companies.

Choose a large rural map, fields and forests with a small town or two. A river or a couple of streams would be ideal. Set the ground conditions to muddy, cool or cold and light rain.

Play the battle as the attacker, on iron mode, ideally with enemy icons off.

Let us all know how that turns out.

I think that's quite winnable as an attacker to be honest. But restricting the attacker to using platoon sized formations on mounted fast-moves into uncontrolled terrain would be more 'realistic' I'd say

Also, large urban area's would make it much more hard and costly; unless there is enough artillery to level much of the urban area before the attack. 

Russian tactical acumen isn't much unlike CMx2 AI on the attack, back when all scenario designers where still finding out how to work with the AI scripting ;-).

[DesertFox]

9 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

On the contrary. Where do EU get the Rubles from? From the CBR. And with what currency? In € or $. So the CBR is getting the hard currency and the Rubles for their gas. Thats a sick plot twist and i think no one saw this coming. Now the EU and all countries in it have to decide. Stop importing gas or double financing Russias war.

They should just stop paying and take the time until shutdown to fill up their supply stores. Putin will shut down the line anyways.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

They should just stop paying and take the time until shutdown to fill up their supply stores. Putin will shut down the line anyways.

A straight up shooting war of this intensity is inevitably going to lead to shut off of the gas pipelines. There just needs to be an absolutely blank check effort to deal with it as best it can be dealt with. It will be one heck of a band aid pull. But once it is done it is done, and the Russian economy will just cease to exist. As with everything else related to this war Putin's timing is truly awful. In January there might have been REAL problems with a pipeline shut down. It is almost April  now. A hard cut off while be extremely unpleasant, but nobody is going to freeze to death.

[keas66]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A straight up shooting war of this intensity is inevitably going to lead to shut off of the gas pipelines. There just needs to be an absolutely blank check effort to deal with it as best it can be dealt with. It will be one heck of a band aid pull. But once it is done it is done, and the Russian economy will just cease to exist. As with everything else related to this war Putin's timing is truly awful. In January there might have been REAL problems with a pipeline shut down. It is almost April  now. A hard cut off while be extremely unpleasant, but nobody is going to freeze to death.

Germany uses gas for more than just heating purposes though - There is a lot of industrial use of natural gas - so cutting off gas supplies will mean shutting down of  parts of the German industry and all the subsequent knock on effects that come out of that .

[Kinophile]

21 minutes ago, sburke said:

oh yeah this has to go on the list in a new fragging incidents section 

Until verified, or repeated as pattern, I would hold off. Humans around maneuvering vehicles easily leads to squishy events.

Even friendly Infantry are nicknamed crunchies by armor folks for a reason...

Id LOVE it to be true - soldiers fragging officers is a really bad (good?) sign.

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

Germany uses gas for more than just heating purposes though - There is a lot of industrial use of natural gas - so cutting off gas supplies will mean shutting down of  parts of the German industry and all the subsequent knock on effects that come out of that .

Yep thats true, but AFAIK the available reserves already are enough to supply germany until 11/2022 and I am pretty confident that until then a solution is found or no sulution will be needed for the next 50.000 years, whatever comes first.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Germany uses gas for more than just heating purposes though - There is a lot of industrial use of natural gas - so cutting off gas supplies will mean shutting down of  parts of the German industry and all the subsequent knock on effects that come out of that .

Oh it be VERY unpleasant, but not the catastrophe January would have been.

[panzermartin]

Shoigu was one of the very few high ranking officials in Russia that supported the war. Gone missing?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/03/23/7333825/index.amp

 

 

[keas66]

Interesting Politico piece  ( non-paywalled ) on US efforts to back fill depleted weapon stocks

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/22/pentagon-scrambles-to-replenish-weapons-stocks-sent-to-ukraine-00019333

[BeondTheGrave]

42 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Kind of curious as to why Israel seems to be trending towards support for Russia versus  Ukraine .

- Supplying Drone tech to Russia

- Refusing to send weapon systems  to Ukraine

- Refusing spyware software sales to Ukraine

I mean at some point they must think this is going to self-resolve and  leave them happily on the fence  ?

I see some  stories about  Field hospitals and other humanitarian support on the ground  in Ukraine but that seems to be more  to be able to say they are helping in some way .

Israel doesn't need Gas from Russia - so whats the hold that Russia has over  Israel ?

Is it just about co-operation in Syria ?  - and really  - what does that say about the bed fellows they choose to lie with  ?

Puzzled .

As I recall after WWII there were two major waves of emigration from Europe to Israel. The first wave, in the decade immediately after 1945, was made up of Jews who fled central Europe (or refugee colonies as far afield as South America) to build a Jewish community in this area. The second wave occurred in the 1970s and 80s when the USSR ratcheted up persecution of its Jewish population, then traded exit visas with the US for agricultural shipments. Most of Russia's Jewish population fled at this point, AFAIK. 

This is, relatively, a pretty recent emigration and many would still be alive and voting. Perhaps this is knock on effect of some residual national familiarity towards Russia? And, again I'm no expert on Israeli politics, it was my impression that many of these emigres form the base of Israel's left and isn't there current PM from a left party? Could be an important dynamic in policy setting. 

[Lethaface]

58 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

On the contrary. Where do EU get the Rubles from? From the CBR. And with what currency? In € or $. So the CBR is getting the hard currency and the Rubles for their gas. Thats a sick plot twist and i think no one saw this coming. Now the EU and all countries in it have to decide. Stop importing gas or double financing Russias war.

Good point, I'm still thinking of it lol.

It's been almost 20 years since I last set foot in a uni and or indulged myself in the inner workings of the global currency market (so a bit rusty). However I'm not sold that this will 'double finance' Russia's war.

Some thoughts:

* The CBR regulates the supply of Rubles but is not the only 'venue' holding Rubles in reserve (or other means of receiving Ruble) and selling them (although I guess lack of demand has it's impact on the availability of Rubles worldwide ;-)). 

* Worst case it would mean an extra $1Bn worth of demand for Rubles on a daily basis, which are promptly returned to Russia's reserve. Not sure how much that would do for the sustained value of the Ruble. 

* Currently Russia (CBR) is hindered in their ability to buy up Rubles using their foreign currency. So this move would in theory circumvent their hindrance a bit, although limited to the net worth of their daily spot price gas sales.

* What about longterm contracts? Not everyone buys gas at spotprice. Longterm contract in Rubles holds risks for Russia as well.

* Looking at the temperature outside, some parties might simply refuse and that would mean less gas exports for Russia; one of the remaining solid 'value streams'. 

All in all I'm not sure if this won't backfire in Russia's face, but it's sure an interesting move from economical perspective. And yes should they actually be able to increase the status of Rubles as a reserve currency due to gas trading, that would be a gain for Russia.

Another thought: in theory they could have made this move already a few years ago, why didn't they? Long term contracts and the potential volatility of the Ruble might be part of the answer. That problem didn't go away overnight, although question has become how long term the long term contracts will actually be post Ukraine invasion.

So short term it might be beneficial to Russia but I'm not sure of middle/long term.  The underlying problem isn't addressed by this move.

Edited March 23, 2022 by Lethaface

[DesertFox]

Some humour is necessary after all. Enjoy Alexander Nezorov!

Uncanny predictions of Ukraine's war from April 2021 by former Russian MP Nevzorov

 

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by DesertFox