How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

If you want to be the good guys, you have to do the good things.

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, JonS said:

If you want to be the good guys, you have to do the good things.

Luke.... “You don’t know the power of the dark side.”   

[cesmonkey]

 

 

[JonS]

53 minutes ago, sburke said:

Luke.... “You don’t know the power of the dark side.”   

 

[Vet 0369]

16 hours ago, JonS said:

I give you that one, but NOT mist-eating-mist

Welllll, it could be disputed on the argument (here in coastal New England) that “fog” is basically a ground level cloud of 100% saturated air (humidity level and air temperature being equal), and “mist” is a very fine precipitation from a cloud that is falling toward the surface. Two completely different weather conditions!

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Luke.... “You don’t know the power of the dark side.”   

THEY HAVE COOKIES!

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Luke.... “You don’t know the power of the dark side.”   

"So, Zelensky, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

"So, Zelensky, now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb."

Good worries about Russia being butthurt about ATACMs, while Russia mines the whole front, trains prisoners as combat troops, launches missiles at apartment buildings and tortures prisoners.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, JonS said:

If you want to be the good guys, you have to do the good things.

Yup.  And when the good guys do bad things, eventually someone notices and it doesn't go very well.  Lots of examples of this from Afghanistan and Iraq.  WW2 the Western Allies faced a LOT of evil deeds (direct and indirect), and those exceptions are considered "stains".

So yes, Ukraine should keep its "nose clean" as much as possible for both short and long term reasons.

Steve

[Carolus]

I think Hajduk's comments are taken to the extreme in an unfair way.

If Ukraine was allowed to do all the things any nation at war would be allowed to do, especially an existential one, on Russian territory and received the weapons for it (doesn't have to be ballistic missiles, just build a 3D printer factory for Ukraine at the Polish border and start churning out mini, medium and long range drones that carry canisters of gasoline), like China does for Russia, then his understandable frustration would already be lessened.

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dude.  Guess what I just watched 5 days ago for the first time in about 20 years?  No, go on, guess!

 

Steve

As I continue to pore over frontline maps, I find myself looking not for 'defensible positions' like villes and tree lines, but for linear obstacles like this canal. With a nice deep, flat, open killing zone in front of it that Ukraine should be sowing like crazy with mines, plus RF sensors to triangulate and target their tactical drone controllers.  Invite 'em in, then kill em by the bushel. They can't go forward and won't be allowed back.

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[cesmonkey]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 hours ago, sburke said:

And from our perspective, If UKR troops are behaving the same way as Russians, then why would we be involved at all?  You either represent something different i.e Human rights and democratic values or we won't have skin in this.

Well, no. Russia is expressly threatening NATO and trying to rebuild Soviet Union which threatened all non-communist countries with nuclear war. It is a self-declared enemy of all NATO countries - which probably includes yours (apologies if I assume incorrectly). Ukraine is a country fighting a defensive war against that enemy and Ukraine's win can undermine that enemy, allowing NATO years or decades of peace, without balooning defence budgets.

There are more than enough reasons to support Ukraine even if they go completely tit-for-tat with the russians and shoot a prisoner for every Russian attrocity. And use antipersonnel mines, cluster munitions and thermobarics which apparently are plenty effective. That moral high horse does not need to grow any higher.

[LongLeftFlank]

15 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Anyone else here think that UA should push another couple battalions across the Dnpro in a different spot, to keep stressing these overextended RU scratch forces and their inexperienced commands by forcing them to move around?

The Krynki bridgehead, which is now evidently 'contained' (all those covered entrenchments on drier ground across the highway), now seems to have served its military purpose and can be evacuated.

Whack a mole on the lower Dnpr....

Edited December 14, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Zeleban]

An overview of both the general strategic situation in general and the situation with the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper in particular from Mashovets.

An overview of both the general strategic situation in general and the situation in the southern operational zone in particular from Mashovets.

In the Tokmat direction, the enemy command is obviously trying to restore the position of its troops at the first position of its main line of defense in the area of the village of Novoprokopovka and in the area between it and the village of Kopani. But, in my opinion, in fact, their goal is a little different - they are thus trying to force our troops to withdraw from the area between Novoprokopovka and Verbovе.

To this end, it apparently planned and organized a series of attacks in two directions Kopani - Robotino and Novoprokopovka - Robotino, trying to force the Ukrainian Armed Forces units, which had previously reached the northern outskirts of the village of Novoprokopovka, to retreat to the north under the threat of being outflanked from the right flank. from these positions. The same as in relation to the Ukrainian Armed Forces units currently fighting between Novoprokopovka and Verbove for the first position of the enemy’s main line of defense.

Units of the 71st motorized rifle regiment of the 42nd motorized rifle division of the 58th combined arms army, the 136th separate motorized rifle brigade of the 58th CAA and a number of units of the enemy’s 76th air assault division took part in the attacks.

The main point of these attacks was clearly the desire to reach the western outskirts of the village Robotino.

As part of this plan, over the past 2-3 days, the enemy actively carried out attacking assault operations in the indicated directions, but managed to advance only 800 meters during this time, occupying several advanced positions of the squads. After which he probably temporarily stopped his intense attacks.

At the moment, obviously, his command is strengthening (replenishing) its forward units in this direction and is preparing to resume the next series of attack/assault operations on the “right side” of our group, which is conducting combat operations along the Novoprokopovka-Verbovoe line.

In principle, the logic of these steps and decisions of the enemy command in this area is quite understandable. At the moment, he has no other way (method) to restore the position of his troops along the first position of his main line of defense in the section between Novoprokopovka and Verbove.

“Front-on”, with the forces of the cracked units and subunits of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th CAA in the general direction “from south to north”, it cannot oust Ukrainian troops from the first position of the main line of defense. All that remains is to try to force them to leave by flanking actions.

The previous attempt of this kind - with the forces of the 7th Airborne Division (its 108th and 56th Airborne Regiments) to attack on the other flank - north-west of the village of Verbovoye ended in vain. Moreover, as a result, the enemy lost control over the height with mark 140, which slightly eased the position of the advanced units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which reached the northwestern outskirts of the village Verbovoe.

In addition, the Ukrainian command quite successfully countered this attempt by organizing a series of attacks in the direction of the village of Novopokrovka, even further north of this area, which, in turn, generally cast doubt on the feasibility of attacks by Russian paratroopers in the Verbovoye area.

Therefore, it seems to me that this is not the end yet.

The Pigdogs, obviously, will strive to “restore the situation” further, attacking our grouping, which is aimed at Tokmak, in different areas and directions (mainly located on the flanks).

Edited December 14, 2023 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

 

In the Dnieper direction, apparently, the command of the enemy grouping of forces "Dnepr" is in a hurry with the issue of "liquidating the enemy's bridgehead." The transfer of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to the Dnepr group of a fresh airborne assault division should, as far as I understand, speed up this process.

But at the moment this has not happened. The “first attack of the East” by the 104th Airborne Division on the Ukrainian bridgehead did not end in anything significant. Its 5-day continuous attacks led only to significant losses in weapons and military equipment in the advanced units of the 328th and 337th air assault regiments. The forest to the south of Krynok became a real “curse” for Russian paratroopers, as before it was the same place for units of the 26th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division and the 810th Separate Marine Brigade.

As for further prospects in the Dnieper direction. For those who forgot.

The enemy reinforced its Dnepr group of troops operating in this direction with not only the fresh 104th Airborne Division, but also the 70th Motorized Rifle Division + at least one separate motorized rifle brigade from the 40th Army Corps - the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade. This is in addition to the troops of the 49th CAA (205th MRBr), 18th CAA (22nd AK), formations of coastal forces "North" (61st Marine Brigade), previously part of the Dnepr group of forces ".

Well, I don’t even mention the whole “scattering” of regiments and battalions of territorial troops that perform an important function as part of the Dnepr group - on a fairly wide front (I recently gave numerical indicators) covering the coastline of the Dnieper.

Therefore, from a formal point of view, General Teplinsky has enough strength to not only liquidate Ukrainian bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper, but also to “fend off” such attempts (even larger ones) in other possible areas and directions.

The question is different - to what extent are these forces and means REALLY capable of doing this, and does General Teplinsky believe that he really has “enough” of the currently concentrated troops (forces) as part of the Dnepr group to complete the task and is capable refuse to demand from the “superiors” even additional “forces and means”?

As far as I understand, in any case, he is required to liquidate the Ukrainian bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnieper, under any circumstances and under any conditions. In this regard, one must understand that General Teplinsky has an “open loan” for the use of forces and means (that is, he will be given as much as he asks, of course, within the REAL capabilities of the Russian General Staff), without restrictions.

In this, his position is quite similar to the situation in which the Russian command of the Main Guard "South" is now, which is "occupied with Avdeevka." Simply because the people need victories (the most “attainable”, in the Russian military command, Avdievka is considered the same), and, on the eve of the “electoral act,” there is no need for any “Ukrainian bridgeheads” on the left bank of the Dnieper.

Therefore, obviously, persistent attempts to eliminate these bridgeheads on the part of General Teplinsky will continue. If necessary, they will fill up those Krynki (and any other bridgehead) with burnt iron and the bodies of their soldiers. the same as near Avdeevka.

They will continue to pull troops into both places until two things happen:

- either Putin will finally not be reappointed president, or for the socio-political situation in the Russian Federation this “act” will lose precisely its meaning, for some other reason;

- or within the Russian military command, finally, there will be a certain “military chief” who will clearly and unambiguously formulate for the top political leadership of the Russian Federation the opinion that the very existence of this kind of “open loans” for personnel and weapons and military equipment (especially immediately several operational directions) quickly and effectively neutralizes the combat qualities of the Russian army than any active actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

At the moment, for the officially formulated (and actually in mind by the Kremlin regime) war goals, both directions (both Avdeevsky and Dnieper) are important.

[Zeleban]

Now, as for the enemy’s strategic aspirations militarily. Or, better said, the main reason for the Russian military command to “rush to the offensive” right now, despite a real assessment of its own capabilities in this area.

The enemy switched to active offensive actions in almost all operational directions. It most actively carries out attacking assault operations in the Bakhmut, Avdeevsky and Kupyansky directions. In certain areas and segments, he also attacks in the Orekhovsky, Novopavlovsky, Limansky and Dnieper directions. In fact, the Russian command, at the moment, believes that the conditions for regaining its strategic initiative have fully developed and the right moment has come to do this in practice.

Therefore, as part of the implementation of this aspiration, he planned, organized and is currently “putting into practice” a complex of offensive counter-offensive actions of an operational-tactical scale in several operational directions at once.

But, in my opinion, the further we go, the more debatable this opinion becomes.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Well, no. Russia is expressly threatening NATO and trying to rebuild Soviet Union which threatened all non-communist countries with nuclear war. It is a self-declared enemy of all NATO countries - which probably includes yours (apologies if I assume incorrectly). Ukraine is a country fighting a defensive war against that enemy and Ukraine's win can undermine that enemy, allowing NATO years or decades of peace, without balooning defence budgets.

There are more than enough reasons to support Ukraine even if they go completely tit-for-tat with the russians and shoot a prisoner for every Russian attrocity. And use antipersonnel mines, cluster munitions and thermobarics which apparently are plenty effective. That moral high horse does not need to grow any higher.

I seem to recall that "they may be bastards, but they're our bastards" didn't work out so great last time.

[Beleg85]

In case worth to check this lady's articles:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/12/fiona-hill-ukraine-putin-00131285

[Bulletpoint]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

Ukraine has every right to angry about, since they have cost Ukrainian lives. The endless delay in releasing the cluster munitions we have released, and a number of types of them that we still haven't being example A. The endless back and forth about ATACMs, and then only giving them ten, and, and, and....

It was not international conventions or humanitarian concerns that kept the US from sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, because neither Ukraine nor the US have signed those conventions.

The point here is that it was not the reluctance to "fight like orcs" but the fear of escalation that kept those munitions away from Ukraine. As Russia decided to escalate, those weapons were eventually released.

But even now, I don't think it's Western sensibilities that is hurting the Ukrainian ability to fight effectively. Escalation fear is still what keeps supplies back.

Even tiny Denmark has given or pledged to give more than 77 tanks. How many did the United States pledge?

76 MBTs, according to Wikipedia. Seventy-six. While you have around 6000 Abrams, thousands of them just sitting in storage...

Edited December 14, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

I seem to recall that "they may be bastards, but they're our bastards" didn't work out so great last time.

Yeah, I wouldn't subscribe to "go tit for tat" either, I just have "seeing all electric substations and train conducting equipment near military installations and factories in Russia go up like napalm" on my Christmas list.

(also kill more Russian poultry just for hilarity, I want eggs to become the new currency on the Russian black market)

Edited December 14, 2023 by Carolus

[Sgt Joch]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

If Ukraine was allowed to do all the things any nation at war would be allowed to do, especially an existential one, on Russian territory and received the weapons for it (doesn't have to be ballistic missiles, just build a 3D printer factory for Ukraine at the Polish border and start churning out mini, medium and long range drones that carry canisters of gasoline), like China does for Russia, then his understandable frustration would already be lessened.

Well if you want to simplify things to the extreme:

-Ukraine can fight the war how it wants if it wants to do it without western support; or

-Ukraine has to adhere to certain basic rules if it wants western support.

Remember there are two objectives as far as the West is concerned: 1) helping Ukraine to defend itself; and 2) preventing this regional conflict from spinning into WW3. I would argue goal 2 is more important than goal 1 to the West.

[Carolus]

These are some graphd based on the numbers of the Ukrianian MoD.

If we consider them inflated, but inflated in a way that is proportional to the real numbers (e.g. they add 33% to everything), there is a little bit of a trend visible.

The losses of Russian heavy equipment  (artillery, tanks, APC) is declining, the losses of Russian manpower are increasing, whereas before they have always been sort of proportionate to each other (the first jump of manpower losses are from the Bakhmut area).

 

 

 

 

[Carolus]

2 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Well if you want to simplify things to the extreme:

-Ukraine can fight the war how it wants if it wants to do it without western support; or

-Ukraine has to adhere to certain basic rules if it wants western support.

Remember there are two objectives as far as the West is concerned: 1) helping Ukraine to defend itself; and 2) preventing this regional conflict from spinning into WW3. I would argue goal 2 is more important than goal 1 to the West.

Is it a basic rule to not attack enemy military infrastructure on his territory?

Is it?

I am not sure if I would call it "basic". It's certainly a rule of some sort.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Carolus

[Hapless]

Meanwhile, in Russia:

Assuming this is accurate, the TLDR of fun questions that popped up:

"When will the war end? When will there be peace in the skies? When will peace talks begin?”

“Why does your reality differ from ours?”

“Mr President, when will real Russia stop being different from the one on TV?”

“Hello, how can I move to the Russia they talk about on Channel One?”

“Cucumbers 900 roubles/kilo, tomatoes 950 roubles/kilo, lettuce costs 1,500. I won’t even bring up the price of fruit. Give us normal prices!”

Not great optics, I haven't watched the thing and don't speak Russian (and Galeotti says it's the most boring, vapid thing he's watched for ages), but I assume Putin isn't answering these.

That might not seem like it matters, Russia functionally being a dictatorship, but Galeotti insists that it matters more. If you upset the people in a democracy, you get voted out in the next election and hop on the gravy train. If you upset the people in a dictatorship... there's the chance you get dragged out of a sewer pipe and executed on the spot.