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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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A bit of Russian fun:

Some regions in Russia are experiencing a shortage of chicken eggs.

When the ruble's value fell, chicken meat prices started to rise because bird feed prices rose, until the government issued a law that forced stores to lower prices again under threat of jail. But that meant stores stopped buying from farms. To counter that, poultry farms started butchering chickens like... like Russian generals butcher conscripts, in order to make meat cheaper and encourage stores to buy. 

But they butchered so much they went into the egg-laying chicken population, leading to a shortage. Stores started to introduce egg regulation, so every customer can only buy a certain amount. They also stopped putting eggs in packs of twelve or ten, but started selling each egg individually. People stand in lines to get a single egg. But even with the high value of eggs, it does not help the farms. 

Russia is importing eggs from Turkey because it is cheaper to import and sell than to produce at home. 

In Belgogrod oblast the governor has apparently seized egg supplies and is giving them away to citizens who sign up for a lottery to improve morale.

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14 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Some regions in Russia are experiencing a shortage of chicken eggs.

 

Sorry, I can't think of Eggs without thinking of one of the 10 all time best war film sequences (epic B25 takeoff included)

*****

Drone bros in their hide. Note the 'US ARMY' patches on their parkas although I suspect these are made in Bangladesh....

 

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2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

One observation: these troops seem more professionally and uniformly equipped than many others we have been seeing, also fitter. So this could be an elite VDV unit being horribly dismembered here. Teplinski doesn't have an infinite number of those, and like a wolf-dog at some point they could turn....

from your keyboard to Gawd's ears, I hope.  I always hope to see some kind of mutiny leading to cascade of mutinies, but it just never happens.  Instead, the idiots send videos asking for Putin's help because they are being slaughtered.  "dear Father Putin who we know cares so much for us, if you only knew we know you would help us".   Such incredible ignorance.

And speaking of slaughter, that is one heckuva pile of dead men & vehicles up north in kharkiv region that you showed.  

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3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

After about two year of assaults, artillery shellings and bombing, Russians could seize "Ukrainian Hirosima" the place, which was Maryinka town.

 

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR troops lost almost all gains of previous two months west from Robotyne. 

Hard fighting for sure.  Ukraine faced similar problems after the Kharkiv offensive ended, including losing some ground.  Hopefully there's some ability to rotate units before a unit falls back because it has nobody left to fight with.  Unfortunately, we've seen that happen a couple of times in this war already.

This is all very concerning, however so far it's not something unique.  Which is a problem in and of itself.  I had hoped that Ukraine wouldn't be in this sort of position again.

Steve

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47 minutes ago, Khalerick said:

 

So the Russians got a massive drone advantage paired with a massive artillery advantage in a largely unmoving, anti-maneuver war.

 

 

It's about particular part of front. Near Krynky, for example situation is reverse, but this is because UKR High Command concentrated there most capable UAV units. But total development is not favorable for us. I already wrote about this. I doubt we can't contest with mass production and direct supply from China to Russia, so except drone manufacturing we need urgently invest into different "trench/vehicle" EW systems, which will maintain local energy shie... "cupolas" against mosty of enemy kamikadze drones

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Drone video of smal part of tree-plant, seized by Russians near Stepove village. Russians to this time couldn't evacuate all bodies of own soldiers. Drone operator flies over and counted 48 bodies left there. At least half company of dead for small piece ot trees. But Russians can allow to do this. We are can't.

image.png.7eeec14732a4dacd6b5e68a102b9ad0f.png

 

Edited by Haiduk
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1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sorry, I can't think of Eggs without thinking of one of the 10 all time best war film sequences (epic B25 takeoff included)

*****

Drone bros in their hide. Note the 'US ARMY' patches on their parkas although I suspect these are made in Bangladesh....

 

They look like standard ecwcs level 7 to me. Super cheap and super warm. 

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46th air-assault brigade has moved from Ronotyne sector to Maryinka. Likely because of this also can be explained last successes of Russians near Robotyne. As soldiers told 65th mech.brigade has not enough competent command. But this is "trench true" of course. Though, obviously transferring of 116th, 47th and 46th brigades from Robotyne salient to Donetsk oblast significantly reduced capabulities of UKR group there

 

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Kupiansk direction, intensive clashes around crucial Syn'kivka village with varied success. In this time UKR troops of 2nd mech.battalion of 30th mech.brigade recaptured previously lost position and captured three Russian soldiers

Soldiers of 108th separate mountain-assault battlioan of 10th mountain assault brigade storm the enemy trench, disembarking from M113. It's pointed out this is also Kupiansk direction, but as I know 10th brigade operated on Siversk direction (NE from Soledar)

 

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And here how Russians advanced near Robotyne - Russian soldiers of probably from 234th air-assault regiment of 76th air-assault division used as live shield hostages three captured UKR soldiers, hiding and shooting behind their backs. 

It's impossible to win, when you have a deal with cruel orcs, which spit on all conventions, but "deeply concerned" international community to force you adhere to these conventions for orcs. "If you take no prisoners, if you hit their cities, power plants, if you allow losses among their "innocent" civilians, you will turn to orcs themeselves! This will be not correspond with democracy values, human rights etc!" People lost feeling of reality and live in own ivory towers with rose unicorns...

 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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45 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

As stated in the description of the video, this attack was stopped by fire from a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, apparently from a long distance. The video shows direct hits to the MTLB. The events took place early in the morning, before sunrise

It is not at all clear to me that Tanks/IFVs/mech anything is a thing going forward. it is absolutely clear to me that if they are they will have the ability to use drones to direct fire from their main armaments. And I don't mean by voice, I mean seamlessly passing targeting data.

 

Edited by dan/california
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51 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is not at all clear to me that Tanks/IFVs/mech anything is a thing going forward. 

Ha ha mate, at this point it is not at all clear to me that ANY of:

 a. tanks/IFVs/mech

 b. aircraft

 c. artillery (other than PGMs)

 d. infantry (other than sappers)

 e. field fortifications

 f.  tactical terrain (other than water and bogs)

...are a thing going forward, at least in terms of leveraging them to deliver meaningful results.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2023

 

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

It's impossible to win, when you have a deal with cruel orcs, which spit on all conventions, but "deeply concerned" international community to force you adhere to these conventions for orcs. "If you take no prisoners, if you hit their cities, power plants, if you allow losses among their "innocent" civilians, you will turn to orcs themeselves! This will be not correspond with democracy values, human rights etc!" People lost feeling of reality and live in own ivory towers with rose unicorns...

Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.

What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?

How will any of that help you win this war?

 

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36 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Ha ha mate, at this point it is not at all clear to me that ANY of:

 a. tanks/IFVs/mech

 b. aircraft

 c. artillery (other than PGMs)

 d. infantry (other than sappers)

 e. field fortifications

 f.  tactical terrain (other than water and bogs)

...are a thing going forward, at least in terms of leveraging them to deliver meaningful results.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-12-2023

 

I think infantry, terrain, and fortifications still very much matter. It is quite possible none of them will be quite the SAME going forward, but I don't think they are going away. They all seem to matter rather a lot around Avdivka.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

And here how Russians advanced near Robotyne - Russian soldiers of probably from 234th air-assault regiment of 76th air-assault division used as live shield hostages three captured UKR soldiers, hiding and shooting behind their backs. 

It's impossible to win, when you have a deal with cruel orcs, which spit on all conventions, but "deeply concerned" international community to force you adhere to these conventions for orcs. "If you take no prisoners, if you hit their cities, power plants, if you allow losses among their "innocent" civilians, you will turn to orcs themeselves! This will be not correspond with democracy values, human rights etc!" People lost feeling of reality and live in own ivory towers with rose unicorns...

 

 

See below.

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.

What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?

How will any of that help you win this war?

 

Most of this response is rhetorical, but i am absolutely convinced that if Ukraine could put the power out in Moscow for a month this winter it make a large difference in this war. NATO has also done a ton of hemming and hawing on a vast number of issues that Ukraine has every right to angry about, since they have cost Ukrainian lives. The endless delay in releasing the cluster munitions we have released, and a number of types of them that we still haven't being example A. The endless back and forth about ATACMs, and then only giving them ten, and, and, and....

We vastly overestimated our ability to to land this thing on the exact glide path we (wrongly) seem to prefer, and it seems to be in danger of imploding because of it. When Ukraine was still standing in May 2022 we should have committed to WINNING this thing, not "improving our negotiating position. 

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42 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.

What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?

How will any of that help you win this war?

 

And from our perspective, If UKR troops are behaving the same way as Russians, then why would we be involved at all?  You either represent something different i.e Human rights and democratic values or we won't have skin in this.

I understand the frustration Haiduk feels, but being different than the Russians is entirely the point.  And it is not impossible to win.  Despite the frustrations and the ongoing destruction that Russia commits, the fact is Ukraine still stands despite the overall imbalance of forces.

Just wish my own Gov't would get its act together and seriously commit itself wholeheartedly to knuckling Russian under.

Edited by sburke
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53 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Most of this response is rhetorical, but i am absolutely convinced that if Ukraine could put the power out in Moscow for a month this winter it make a large difference in this war.

I have a better idea: Take out the power and everything else in Rostov-on-Don. Make it impossible to get trains in. Take out all the trucks going in.

Give Russia’s logistics apparatus the choice of feeding Rostov, or supplying their army.

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