How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Wagner cemeteries being demolished?

Quote

President Putin signs decree forcing paramilitary fighters to swear oath to Russian flag

 

[FancyCat]

Nvm, maybe just revamping the cemetery.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The word "can" is appropriate here because it establishes theory, not reality.  For example, Russia can launch a counter offensive with Armata tanks at any time as it have them sitting in a warehouse somewhere.  But WILL they do it?  Unlikely.  So CAN Russia deploy multiple battalions (full staffed) of infantry along this defensive belt?  Theoretically yes, but WILL they do it?  Evidence so far suggests they won't because they don't have those forces available and taking them away from other sectors of front isn't feasible (and certainly not advisable, as they learned with Kharkiv last year).

yeah, maybe it's actually a formidable defensive line in depth.  Or maybe it's  bunch of ditches w mobiks in some of the ditches.  What it actually is is yet to be seen.  So far it's been the vertically oriented tree lines that seem to be trouble, not these horizontal ditches.

Kursk?  Yeah, that's a good analogy.  I think western half of Normandy is also good.  El Alamein not a bad on either. 

I was hoping to wake to hear that rumors of UKR advance south of Robotyne were true, but so far no confirmation.

[riptides]

45 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Nvm, maybe just revamping the cemetery.

They will need a lot more space in the next few days.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Good reading to refresh: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1655584386601951238.html

Ukraine is now reaching zone3

"Zone 4: Prepared main defensive line. Massive multilayered trench lines with anti-tank ditches and dragons’ teeth obstacles. Extensive minefields are likely. These fortifications form nearly uniformly continuous defensive belt across the front. Built 3-4km deep."

This thread is *really* good, many thanks. Design material here.

[rocketman]

Video on progression of Russian losses per type of weapon/asset over time (according to UA):

 

 

Edited August 25, 2023 by rocketman

[sburke]

13 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Another note re logistics -  in response to HIMARS et al Russia's has dispersed and atomised its supply. No large convoys,  just 1-2 trucks,  in relays,  fast moving, short drop off/load up. 

This is fine when the front is slow but if it kicks off into a sudden surge throughput then RuA logistics could suddenly start failing in cascade because its not able to concentrate sufficient quantities in short enough time, and when it tries to it gets HIMARS up the wazoo. 

UKR strikes have deformed local RUS logistics into a weird, situation specific  and reactive shape, away from an organizationally deep and somewhat operationally sound form. This has created a seemingly flexible approach but it possibly has no sustained surge capacity if the front is suddenly over matched. 

I don't think UKR will be able to out run RUS logs but overwhelm it with a widespread demand it cannot meet. 

I wonder how this would manifest... 

It is also pretty wasteful.  Penny packet logistics is not efficient by a long shot and the RA is only making its problems worse to avoid the main dumps getting hammered.  They've effectively moved the primary dumps further back and created a load of what are surely poorly coordinated small depots that if anything are likely even more prone to pilfering and corruption.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Teufel]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

This is likely from a reenactment event or similar and has nothing to do with Ukraine. The Sushko account often posts such misleading tweets, showing an old or unrelated video and claiming it's recent.

Duly noted! Will keep that in mind next time, no sarcasm. Real or not, the fact we seen WW2 era tanks and weapons is no joke. Particularly if you are Russian tank driver.

[L0ckAndL0ad]

I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 

It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

[The_Capt]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It absolutely is NOT ethnic cleansing to expel people who have illegally entered your country.  Every country agrees with that.  So, first thing to do is to expel everybody in Crimea who does not hold Ukrainian citizenship.  Not that I think there will be many that fit that description.  The mainland Russians are going to leave en mas when it becomes clear that change is going to happen.  Aside from that, any pro-Russian Ukrainian has a Russian passport, so there's a large chunk of them that are going to head east when it is clear that Crimea is once again going to be Ukrainian. 

Of those that remain, they will for the most part be neutral, Ukrainian with Russian leanings, or pro-Ukrainian.  Ukraine is not expelling its pro-Russian citizens now, so they won't likely do it in Crimea either.  What they will likely do is start prosecuting anybody that committed treason and other offenses.  Which is the right thing to do.  Hence why so many will be looking to leave Crimea if there's a change of government looming.

Crimea will be a difficult territory to govern, but I do not see a significant insurgency happening.  Especially because the conditions that would allow Ukraine to restore Crimea are not likely conducive to messing around outside of its borders.  Especially if Russia fully collapses as a state.

Steve

Was going to leave this one but this is rife with risk and we do no service in downplaying them.  First problem will be children born in Crimea since 2014.  A bunch of ten year olds who likely have Russian citizenship who have never lived anywhere else.  I honestly cannot see trainloads of them and their families being forcibly loaded onto truck and trains - being splashed all over the internet by Russian IO - not having a significant risk.  Call it deportation, call it whatever you like but it is going to have blowback.  Yes, it is exactly what the Russian's did, and it will take people about 3 seconds to link the two actions and ask "just who are we supporting here?"

And then there are those who do not want to leave and try to stay by force.  We can hope this is not the case but we cannot wish it away.  The roots of an insurgency are there - a just cause and repression (from their point of view), no political mechanism in which to try and make change in their interests, support and backing from a neighboring nation with a grudge.  How many times do we have to invade a country/region/territory (or be supporting one) and gloss over the fact that some of the population is likely to push back?

I actually support re-taking the Crimea, it will definitely frame this war as a Russian loss. But I also do not recommend waving hands at what could be very serious security issues in that region that could blow up and back.  One Ukrainian solder does one unrighteous shoot, and insurgencies are really good at setting those up, and the whole deal starts to unravel.  Trainloads of deported Russian who have been living in Crimea for ten years with sad music on YouTube is also not really a good thing either.

Like a lot of these liberation theories I am seeing a lot of hope strung together - Hope all the bad Crimeans leave once the RA collapses. Hope those that remain are neutral of supportive of Ukrainian liberation. Hope we don't have to do mass deportations that can start to look like ethnic cleansing, with a sinister far right undertone.  Hope Russia does not arm anyone and everyone who is willing to make trouble for liberation.  Man that is a lot of points of failure.

[billbindc]

39 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Was going to leave this one but this is rife with risk and we do no service in downplaying them.  First problem will be children born in Crimea since 2014.  A bunch of ten year olds who likely have Russian citizenship who have never lived anywhere else.  I honestly cannot see trainloads of them and their families being forcibly loaded onto truck and trains - being splashed all over the internet by Russian IO - not having a significant risk.  Call it deportation, call it whatever you like but it is going to have blowback.  Yes, it is exactly what the Russian's did, and it will take people about 3 seconds to link the two actions and ask "just who are we supporting here?"

And then there are those who do not want to leave and try to stay by force.  We can hope this is not the case but we cannot wish it away.  The roots of an insurgency are there - a just cause and repression (from their point of view), no political mechanism in which to try and make change in their interests, support and backing from a neighboring nation with a grudge.  How many times do we have to invade a country/region/territory (or be supporting one) and gloss over the fact that some of the population is likely to push back?

I actually support re-taking the Crimea, it will definitely frame this war as a Russian loss. But I also do not recommend waving hands at what could be very serious security issues in that region that could blow up and back.  One Ukrainian solder does one unrighteous shoot, and insurgencies are really good at setting those up, and the whole deal starts to unravel.  Trainloads of deported Russian who have been living in Crimea for ten years with sad music on YouTube is also not really a good thing either.

Like a lot of these liberation theories I am seeing a lot of hope strung together - Hope all the bad Crimeans leave once the RA collapses. Hope those that remain are neutral of supportive of Ukrainian liberation. Hope we don't have to do mass deportations that can start to look like ethnic cleansing, with a sinister far right undertone.  Hope Russia does not arm anyone and everyone who is willing to make trouble for liberation.  Man that is a lot of points of failure.

I agree with the above but it's worth remembering that Ukraine now has probably not just the most effective army in Europe but also the most effective anti-Russian security services. They have rooted out Russian networks in controlled territory quite effectively since the war began and would efficiently do so in Crimea too. Added in, no language barrier and the high likelihood that Russia's most vehement supporters will flee to the mainland and I like the GUR's chances. 

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Was going to leave this one but this is rife with risk and we do no service in downplaying them.  First problem will be children born in Crimea since 2014.  A bunch of ten year olds who likely have Russian citizenship who have never lived anywhere else.  I honestly cannot see trainloads of them and their families being forcibly loaded onto truck and trains - being splashed all over the internet by Russian IO - not having a significant risk.  Call it deportation, call it whatever you like but it is going to have blowback.  Yes, it is exactly what the Russian's did, and it will take people about 3 seconds to link the two actions and ask "just who are we supporting here?"

And then there are those who do not want to leave and try to stay by force.  We can hope this is not the case but we cannot wish it away.  The roots of an insurgency are there - a just cause and repression (from their point of view), no political mechanism in which to try and make change in their interests, support and backing from a neighboring nation with a grudge.  How many times do we have to invade a country/region/territory (or be supporting one) and gloss over the fact that some of the population is likely to push back?

I actually support re-taking the Crimea, it will definitely frame this war as a Russian loss. But I also do not recommend waving hands at what could be very serious security issues in that region that could blow up and back.  One Ukrainian solder does one unrighteous shoot, and insurgencies are really good at setting those up, and the whole deal starts to unravel.  Trainloads of deported Russian who have been living in Crimea for ten years with sad music on YouTube is also not really a good thing either.

Like a lot of these liberation theories I am seeing a lot of hope strung together - Hope all the bad Crimeans leave once the RA collapses. Hope those that remain are neutral of supportive of Ukrainian liberation. Hope we don't have to do mass deportations that can start to look like ethnic cleansing, with a sinister far right undertone.  Hope Russia does not arm anyone and everyone who is willing to make trouble for liberation.  Man that is a lot of points of failure.

Sober and pragmatic view on post conflict reconciliation, which isn’t easy in itself. Not going to dwell on this long as I have little to add other than - life must go on during as well as after conflicts. No matter how deep that hate runs. You are right there are those that will never forgive and never reconcile no matter what. On the other side, you have people who lost loved ones in brutal circumstances and still forgive. Can’t claim to know it will go this or that way, what worries me more is the type of peace agreement that is made rather than who stays and who leaves.

Those that done nothing wrong against their fellow people and neighbors during occupation got nothing to fear. Those that have will leave by their own power if they can. Conflict zones where mixed nationalities live together are, at least by own experience, less hateful than those where ethnic groups live separately. Even if they live close nearby, they don’t have anything to do with each other, thus they hate their neighbors. In regions where your former enemy struggles the same you do for a living, there is less hate. You are in it together.

Generalizing bit much but point being, I worry more about if justice will be served to those that done wrong or not. If people will come to terms between the fighting parties without third party pressure to agree to something you don’t want. That goes for both Russia and Ukraine, regardless who lives where. We seen it before where 30 years later, conflict is brewing again.

Edited August 25, 2023 by Teufel

[cesmonkey]

Reportedly, Ukrainians reached the first defense line. Whether they were really destroyed when they reached it as the Russians say, time will tell:
https://t.me/RVvoenkor/51974
 

Quote

Meat grinder in Rabotino: The enemy reached our defensive lines and was destroyed
Report from the Acting Governor of the Zaporozhye region E. Balitsky
For several days, Rabotino remains one of the most intense sectors of the front in the Zaporozhye direction. Last night was especially hot for the enemy, because on the day of the so-called "independence" their commanders did not particularly spare the lives of soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the cost of colossal losses yesterday, they were able to reach the first defensive line of engineering barriers, but they go basically even without artillery support.
Assault groups of the enemy, which yesterday managed to reach the first line, were destroyed tonight in full strength.
The situation is definitely tense. The enemy is trying to wear down our defenses with his constant suicides, but our guys give such a tough rebuff that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not have time to replenish the losses of their soldiers and Western equipment, which burns as well as any other.
t.me/RVvoenkor

 

[A Canadian Cat]

37 minutes ago, billbindc said:

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Hope all the bad Crimeans leave once the RA collapses. Hope those that remain are neutral of supportive of Ukrainian liberation. Hope we don't have to do mass deportations that can start to look like ethnic cleansing, with a sinister far right undertone.  Hope Russia does not arm anyone and everyone who is willing to make trouble for liberation.  Man that is a lot of points of failure.

I agree with the above but it's worth remembering that Ukraine now has probably not just the most effective army in Europe but also the most effective anti-Russian security services. They have rooted out Russian networks in controlled territory quite effectively since the war began and would efficiently do so in Crimea too. Added in, no language barrier and the high likelihood that Russia's most vehement supporters will flee to the mainland and I like the GUR's chances. 

@The_Capt sounds right about a lot of points of failure. If @billbindc is correct that will help a lot but the big factor is good governance. If the Ukraine can make the previously occupied territories livable and even marginally prosperous they have a slot at preventing insurgencies from getting going.

There is a lot of moving parts there. A lot.

[A Canadian Cat]

20 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

as the Russians say

Remind me again what is the first rule of "what the Russians say"?

[dan/california]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for that.

As stated before, it's pretty obvious that Russia is conducting this defense "by the books", which means the theory of the defenses is in place.  It is very clear that Russia has been investing heavily in making this theory come into reality. The question is... how thoroughly did it manage to make zones 3 and especially 4?  Does it match theory, or is it another example of the MoD half-assing the job?  If it has half-assed it, my assumption is this time it would be because of resource constraints rather than the usual corruption and/or incompetence reasons.

Here is the key element taken from the above thread:

as can be seen from this sentinel image, the Russian trench lines and fortifications continue on both sides of Solodka Balka strongpoint with multiple fallback positions and reserve trenches. Russians can deploy multiple battalions of infantry along this defensive belt

The word "can" is appropriate here because it establishes theory, not reality.  For example, Russia can launch a counter offensive with Armata tanks at any time as it have them sitting in a warehouse somewhere.  But WILL they do it?  Unlikely.  So CAN Russia deploy multiple battalions (full staffed) of infantry along this defensive belt?  Theoretically yes, but WILL they do it?  Evidence so far suggests they won't because they don't have those forces available and taking them away from other sectors of front isn't feasible (and certainly not advisable, as they learned with Kharkiv last year).

The most important point of failure for Russia is not having the manpower and/or equipment to man its defensive line properly.  All indications are that this is the current status of the frontline... undermanned, under resourced, and rapidly becoming worse with no easy way for Russia to change the equation.  Ukraine seems to have plenty of fight left in it, so there's reason to be hopeful that a breakthrough might be easier in reality than it would be in theory.

Steve

And proper supporting equipment is even more important than the actual manpower. If Russia is out of jammers, out of artillery that put a round within a kilometer of the aim point, and out of counter-battery radar, heavily manned trenches just run up the casualty count. I still think Ukraine has gotten it more right than wrong, concentrating to soon and to obviously just lets the the Russians concentrate as well.

I will also point out that Ukraine and the U.S. have run at least one first class info op about how the Ukrainians were going to attack in this one place, and only this one place...

Edited August 25, 2023 by dan/california

[Pete Wenman]

1 hour ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 

It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

Great to her from you - stay safe

P

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 

It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

Holy Mackerel! WOW, great to hear from you! Hang in there and stay low and safe. I had just been wondering how you were doing.

[billbindc]

21 minutes ago, IanL said:

@The_Capt sounds right about a lot of points of failure. If @billbindc is correct that will help a lot but the big factor is good governance. If the Ukraine can make the previously occupied territories livable and even marginally prosperous they have a slot at preventing insurgencies from getting going.

There is a lot of moving parts there. A lot.

Ukraine already conducted a civ/mil campaign in Mariupol before this phase of the war that worked quite well and that was in an environment where public corruption was far more tolerated. If it takes back Crimea, investment will pour in not least from China. 

[riptides]

1 hour ago, IanL said:

Remind me again what is the first rule of "what the Russians say"?

They count bodies before accidents?

[Eddy]

Autumn Approaches: Part 1 - Reports by The Lookout (substack.com)

A somewhat sobering analysis of the Ukrainian offensive. Worth a read even if you may not agree with it.

[fireship4]

3 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

I agree with Haiduk and Steve that there won't be any pro-russian insurgency in Crimea in case of UKR troops going in hot. But, yes, it is going to be hard to govern, for sure. Something good to look forward to anyway. 

It is quite hard to predict how the events will unfold exactly from now on. That raid was definitely fun though, even if only symbolical.

Your last post was February 28th 2022, and it has been pinned up on the right of the thread under 'popular posts' since then,

Quote

after being detained on 24th by police and FSB

Everything OK now?  Relatively speaking?

[LongLeftFlank]

55 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Autumn Approaches: Part 1 - Reports by The Lookout (substack.com)

The most important single factor here is that the Ukrainians struggle to conduct operations at scale. The largest we have seen are battalion attacks, but mostly there has been company- to platoon level operations. This means that the offensive mostly has been a series of individual actions the Russians can respond adequately to.

On the positive side, the Ukrainians have increased the efficiency of their counter battery work, putting real pressure on Russian artillery.... Russian ammo shortages, especially compared to last year, are real, but Russian artillery remains remains very much in the fight.

Russian forces in the south have also been fighting according doctrine, in contrast to elsewhere, earlier in the war. They have a lethal mixture of ISR, ATGMs, aviation (especially rotary wing) and artillery. This, in combination with fortifications, mines and wide open terrain, negates many of the often talked about Russian deficiencies. They have also been able to rotate companies and battalions, an important measure for coping with attrition.

Except for the transfer of the 7th Guards Air Assault Division, there has been no significant transfers from other sectors.

Many have ridiculed the fortifications since the Russians started digging last fall, but fortifications are- and have repeatedly been proven effective in this war. 

Good stuff, assuming this is factually accurate. Key quotes above.

Edited August 25, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[JonS]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

I agree with the above but it's worth remembering that Ukraine now has probably not just the most effective army in Europe but also the most effective anti-Russian security services.

The COIN end of the spectrum is very different to the conventional. The US military, for example, is rather good at one end of it, and rather **** at the other, as it very publicly demonstrated in the first two decades of this century.

(And the rest of NATO didn't perform very differently, before we start in on that)