How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[panzermartin]

10 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

No, Russians did Nord Stream. If you go back far enough on this very  thread you will see Russian ships being tracked directly over the explosion site before it happened.

Yes I remember, but this is bit more fresh and all over the place: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Don't know if he is in russian payroll as many claim, but each of his points are sound. Especially these ones:

He is not likely on the Russian payroll, but he is mentally ill and should not be listened to. 

22 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

1.The russian fortified left bank is more affected. Minefields are gone, trenches are gone, fortifications are gone... Why they would blow a dam *after* they have fortified those positions and flood them with water? They must have already killed some of their troops.

2. Once the water dries out( and the hot summer is ideal for that) Ukraine will have much better chances to reach and reinforce breakthroughs to the south. 

3.Ukraine has targeted the dam before with high precision weapons like HIMARS. 

I'm sorry, also the Nord Stream latest reveals contradicts the belief the Russians did that in the first place. 

So, I'm being more than skeptical now...

No, you are falling into the Russian narrative as you very often do.  Do not reject sound logic just because it's more difficult to follow.

All of the points have been discussed here already.  The one you have apparently overlooked is that Russia has a track record of Scorched Earth and this was always, always, ALWAYS going to be a part of this year's events.  The exact timing of it is just a detail.  The moment they seized the dam, smart and well informed people knew that they would never let it go back under Ukrainian control.  Russia never gives up what they can blow up.

Steve

[FancyCat]

On that note, we have been criticizing the Russian campaign against civilian targets, we should note Russia is targeting by design healthcare facilities, civilian warehouses and emergency response, Russia's campaign against the energy infrastructure last winter was designed to freeze Ukraine and her inhabitants to death, the Russian civilian targeting campaign is designed to make as much of unoccupied Ukraine as uninhabitable as possible, destroying Ukrainian society and economy....

By all measures, if Russia expects to lose control of the region, allowing a bridge for easy access to the left bank of the river is militarily incompetent. Allowing Ukraine to easily recover her economic agricultural and energy potential is from the aspect of total war, also incompetent. 

If I want to hold Crimea, but expect the water to dry up when Ukraine retakes the dam, (as Ukraine shown by stopping water in 2014), there's really no negative to blowing the dam. sure Crimean agriculture and water supply will be affected but the reservoirs are full, and if Ukraine has crossed to the left bank, Crimea is about to become the Frontline, the agriculture and tourism on Crimea is gonna dry up anyway. 

If Ukraine succeeds in cutting the land bridge, the positions in Kherson oblast are not defendable anyhow so destroying the defense line on the left bank is fine, Russia cannot hold without the land bridge to Mariupol.

Honestly, I'm 100% on Russia did this deliberately.

[Astrophel]

According to the Washington Post, since recently totally revamped by Jeff Bezos of Amazon fame, there is a theoretical possibility that visitors from outer space might be responsible for Nord Stream explosions AND the catastrophic flooding in Ukraine.  There is also a possibility that Bezos is doing what he excels at - attracting clicks and driving traffic to his stores.

Nobody knows for sure including me.  However the Agatha Christie in me is fingering the russians.  They are certainly dumb enough and spiteful enough and uncaring.  What kind of nation can enjoy the prospect of German children having to eat their pet hamsters rather than beg for gas deliveries via the one remaining NS link open - the NS2 channel that Germany refused to qualify the day before the invasion.  And then the dam.  

One thing I learned about Ukrainians in the last 15 months is that they love their pets.  No Ukrainian government can expect to survive long term should they be found responsible for killing all these animals.  One thing I really like about Zelensky is that he does seem to fight with a care and respect for life that is totally lacking on the russian side.  This flood is russian work - they don't care, not even about their  own, and they are in panic.

I recommend anybody who doubts the panic level in Moscow to check out Julia Davis translations.  Mainstream russian tv is rabid!  Massive destruction is the order of the day.  Genocide is the agenda.  From a western perspective it is difficult to imagine the level of fanaticism in russia today - and they are losing!

Oh, but of course it might have been the martians.....

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes I remember, but this is bit more fresh and all over the place: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

Already discussed here.  It seems that Ukraine planned something, but the evidence suggests Russia is the one that actually did it.

Steve

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes I remember, but this is bit more fresh and all over the place: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/.

it is all over because it is easy click bait.  One unidentified source.. that is it.  "The intelligence report was based on information obtained from an individual in Ukraine. The source’s information could not immediately be corroborated".

So if that is all it takes.  I have just heard from a source (myself) that Kiribati, a country gradually being submerged is behind it because it feels anything to disrupt fossil fuels benefits them.  You heard it here first in an exclusive.  Prove me wrong.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, sburke said:

Sunflowers for Peace is doing a specific campaign for evacuees from the flooded areas.  Seems the founder is from Nova Kakhovka.

Support Victims of Kakhovka Dam Flood (sunflowerofpeace.com)

Thanks.  I was just about to start looking for a good place to donate and you saved me some time.

Steve

[The_Capt]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've seen an (official?) estimate that the reservoir will be dry in 3 more days.  By that I am sure we're talking about the reserves of water, not bone dry as the dams upstream are still obligated to release water.

The flood crest is supposed to be some time today.

For sure it will take a little while for the water to recede and the ground to dry up, however I do not expect the conditions for a crossing to be adversely affected for very long.  As I said in an earlier post, it could be that Ukraine wasn't planning on doing serious amphib ops until much later anyway.  There's also the very real possibility that we've discussed that Ukraine NEVER planned on major amphib ops EVER.  Which would not only mean that the Russians shot their bolt too soon, but for no reason.

As for the Russian's preparedness for the flood, sources seem to agree that the frontline units were not alerted ahead of time.  Either because of OPSEC, crap coordination, some combo of both, or that they didn't mean to have the dam go catastrophic.  There's a couple of videos of Russians getting plucked out of the water and, in one video, trees:

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1666461768116326401

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/1437g7c/were_drowning_blt_but_were_leaving_blt_whine_the/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/142xzyx/russian_terrorists_were_so_happy_about_the/

Steve

Just to pile on and follow up.  I can see no real reason why the UA would do this as an inside job to be honest.  I mean technically it might drive RA back a bit from flooding but we are talking a few hundred meters, it does not threaten RA supply lines and manoeuvre beyond the strip of the flood zone.  Beyond ravaging their own country, the flooding will make their own ops there more difficult in the short term.  A UA defensive angle makes no sense as the RA has shown no capability or intent on offensive ops back over the river.  

So we are down to weird “spoofing” scenarios to try and convince the RA they are safe to pull forces from that sector.  These are stretching things a lot.  Given the post war reconstruction cost, I am pretty sure there are better options to pull RA out of that sector, you know, like supporting Russian insurgents on the other side of the front?

[kevinkin]

A retreating army destroys infrastructure; and advancing army repairs infrastructure. 

Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions. These international laws prohibit attacks on infrastructure “containing dangerous forces” including explicitly “dams” and “dykes” if such attacks “may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.” Despite these prohibitions, conflicts over water and attacks on water systems are on the rise, with a dramatic increase in the past two decades.

There is precedent for Russian destruction of dams on the Dnieper River. In August 1941, during World War II, the retreating Soviet Army destroyed another dam on the Dnieper at Zaporizhzhia, the Dnieper Dam, to prevent it from falling into the hands of the advancing Nazis. At the time it was the largest dam in the world. The subsequent flooding reportedly killed tens of thousands of people downstream.

https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/

[Battlefront.com]

I was wondering this yesterday, but I am starting to think there might be more to my hunch.

1.  We know Ukraine started shaping ops a few weeks ago, with deep strikes, pushing back around Bakhmut, and the raids into Belgorod.

2.  A few days ago we started seeing significant recon/probe/distraction attacks in locations spanning the entire front.

3.  The dam blew up yesterday.

4.  Major Ukrainian ground activity started today.

 

Here's my hunch explained given these facts.

Ukraine plans some amount of amphibious activity over the Dnepr with the intent of producing an operational impact on the unfolding counter offensive.  Whether it is Belgorod scaled raids or a larger scale mobile force, that's unknown and not important.  What is important is that the amphib ops have an important purpose, whatever that purpose might be.

The Russians know this, or at least presume it is a possibility, therefore they have the dam's demo command on high alert.  The obvious move would be to wait until the last minute and then blow the dam so that it has maximum impact on Ukrainian ops.  We have discussed whether Russia intended to blow it yesterday, but for now let's assume they did.

Ukraine knows Russia is going to blow the dam for the same reasons we know the sun will rise every day.  Russians are predictable and this is a particularly predictable action.  So Ukraine has plans in the event that the dam is blown or not blown.  This is backed up by Ukraine's own statements, as if we really needed them to say so.

Yesterday ISW noted that some Ukrainian units close to and below the dam had to withdraw in haste.  So...

What if Ukraine was in the process of trying to seize the dam by a raid, the Russians spotted it, and they made the determination that the time was right to blow up the dam?

Whatever the case is, Ukraine needed certainty on the matter of the dam's status.  If it had conducted a successful raid then it would be certain to remain intact as Russia's ability to hit the broad side of a barn is notoriously bad.  Therefore, certainly as well as avoiding a long term ecological and economic disaster.  A failed attempt or provoking proactive destruction also gives Ukraine certainty, though with the awful consequences of the destruction.  It was worth a try to take the dam, but it was never more than a long shot.

 

Bottom line... Russia was going to blow the dam no matter what.  It is in Ukraine's best interests to have it done sooner rather than later.  It may have taken steps to ensure that the matter was settled yesterday or today rather than allowing Russia to dictate when it took action.

Logical and smart, two hallmarks of Ukraine's conduct of this war.  Therefore I think that's pretty much what happened.

Steve

[Kinophile]

50 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Orc POWs (location unconfirmed). Might still be recon in force activity.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1666446081255677957?s=20

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1666447708708560901?s=20

 

 

Going by current reports, the ZSU is not starting this offensive off with all the spiffy high-grade new NATO stuff (Bradleys etc). 

That idea never made best sense to me,  as the first assaults on (relatively) fresh and ready defense lines was always going to be costly, and in many ways unknowable until the shooting starts. 

If the Great Ukrainian Offensive of 2023 isn't quite yet in motion, well - the key is certainly in the ignition, hand brake is off and Zaluzhny's boot is hovering just barely above the pedal...

Edited June 7, 2023 by Kinophile

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

Going by current reports, the ZSU is not starting this offensive off with all the spiffy high-grade new NATO stuff (Bradleys etc). 

That idea never made best sense to me,  as the first assaults on (relatively) fresh and ready defense lines was always going to be costly. 

I think if the Great Ukrainian Offensive of 2023 isn't in motion quite yet,  well the key is certainly in the ignition, hand brake is off and Zaluzhny's boot is hovering just above the pedal...

well if they needed any kind of a boost for the army, Russia just handed that to them.  I would bet the UA is in a rage right now to smash the Russian invaders.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Going by current reports, the ZSU is not starting this offensive off with all the spiffy high-grade new NATO stuff (Bradleys etc). 

That idea never made best sense to me,  as the first assaults on (relatively) fresh and ready defense lines was always going to be costly, and in many ways unknowable until the shooting starts. 

If the Great Ukrainian Offensive of 2023 isn't quite yet in motion, well - the key is certainly in the ignition, hand brake is off and Zaluzhny's boot is hovering just barely above the pedal...

Yup, this is the way it appears to me too.

For sure it makes no sense to drive its best equipment into minefields when less capable equipment will have the same pro/con results.  Especially since it does appear that Russia's defensive positions are poorly equipped with artillery and ATGMs.  This makes an MRAP just as good as a Leopard 2 from a tactical standpoint.

It also makes sense to use the MRAP type vehicles instead of older Soviet era stuff.  Ukraine knows to expect lots of detonations from AT mines and going in with BMPs and BTRs means lots of dead infantry guaranteed.  The MRAPs, and eve the older YPRs, have shown they can take hits without catastrophic kills of their passengers.

This is all making a lot of sense.

Steve

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

1.The russian fortified left bank is more affected. Minefields are gone, trenches are gone, fortifications are gone... Why they would blow a dam *after* they have fortified those positions and flood them with water? They must have already killed some of their troops.

2. Once the water dries out( and the hot summer is ideal for that) Ukraine will have much better chances to reach and reinforce breakthroughs to the south. 

3.Ukraine has targeted the dam before with high precision weapons like HIMARS. 

I'm sorry, also the Nord Stream latest reveals contradicts the belief the Russians did that in the first place. 

So, I'm being more than skeptical now...

1: the few guards stationed there offset tens of thousands of civilians affected? Besides, previously flooded areas are kind of worse to travel through as infastructure is wrecked, roads are swept away,... A few empty trenches are easier to overcome. Maybe in orc logic washing away your fellow countrymen is a valid strategy, Id assume you'd not want to kill your own just as much as any one commander in Ukraine.

2: then why not blow it earlier, it would be dry by now and pose a threat to russia, while the offensive is starting to begin.

3: yes, captured by CCTV no less, now why has no footage been released, proving it was a Ukrainian strike? Or do you think Ukrainian commandos evaded the CCTVs while placing the charges? Who controlles the footage and location?

With how sturdy the dam was, tanking himars with close to no damage (remember how many weeks of daily bombing the bridge took) you would reasonably expect someone in a trench to film the massive spectacle of shelling no?

Edited June 7, 2023 by Kraft

[Ales Dvorak]

38 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

A retreating army destroys infrastructure; and advancing army repairs infrastructure. 

Can I ask you in what kind of "light" do you see Operation Chastise?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise

Edited June 7, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[Boche]

Hi thread. My unit is going to be involved in training about 3 dozen Ukranian NCO´s/Officers

Long story short im friends with the base pcychologist and she has been given the task of giving them psychological training and honestly she doesnt know what to teach:

to not spoil the thread ive opened another one in the CMBS main forum page where I give a more detailed explanation and where we would really apreciate the help. Thank you in advance:

 

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Don't know if he is in russian payroll as many claim, but each of his points are sound. Especially these ones:

1.The russian fortified left bank is more affected. Minefields are gone, trenches are gone, fortifications are gone... Why they would blow a dam *after* they have fortified those positions and flood them with water? They must have already killed some of their troops.

2. Once the water dries out( and the hot summer is ideal for that) Ukraine will have much better chances to reach and reinforce breakthroughs to the south. 

3.Ukraine has targeted the dam before with high precision weapons like HIMARS. 

I'm sorry, also the Nord Stream latest reveals contradicts the belief the Russians did that in the first place. 

So, I'm being more than skeptical now...

Yes because Ukraine is so evil it would just drown its own people and deny itself the ability to easily liberate south of Kherson area. Because it carefully targeted a bridge (and never a dam itself) with high precision HIMARS as not to cause any damage to the dam itself previously.

Now why would russians, who themselves openly threatened to blow up the dam if Ukraine tries to cross way back in October 2022 and stated time and again that they mined it - do it? Nah, russians certainly care about poor people on occupied territories, not like that "Kyiv regime". And especially they care about their own soldiers as evidenced by 200k+ losses in a war of genocide.

So poor russian soldiers, who fully controlled the dam, with tears in the eyes watched as evil Ukrainian saboteurs planted tons of explosives under the dam because it's the only way to destroy it as the thing is made to... you know... withstand thousands of tons of water pressure and that's why it can't be destroyed by any goddamn arty. 

I feel you man. Guilty as charged.

Now let's talk about elite Ukrainian divers opening a portal to northern seas to blow up a pipe.

Edited June 7, 2023 by kraze

[dan/california]

48 minute video! only had time to skim it but there is a lot here. Including english subtitles!

[kluge]

30 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So we are down to weird “spoofing” scenarios to try and convince the RA they are safe to pull forces from that sector.

Various Ukrainian officials dropped hints about amphibious capabilities when discussing the dam yesterday, so I think this possibility can be immediately ruled out.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Yes I remember, but this is bit more fresh and all over the place: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

As noted, a European agency with one source they couldn't corroborate told the CIA a plan existed but wouldn't allow the story to be checked. 

<psst! Have you seen the American plans to invade Canada yet?>

[kraze]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As noted, a European agency with one source they couldn't corroborate told the CIA a plan existed but wouldn't allow the story to be checked. 

<psst! Have you seen the American plans to invade Canada yet?>

I did that in HoI4. It's doable. They probably stole my savegame.

[Heirloom_Tomato]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

<psst! Have you seen the American plans to invade Canada yet?>

I have the book, War Plan Red. Just waiting for the Canadians to make their way into CMCW for some sweet alternative reality battles. I used to live right beside a ferry crossing and bridge whose seizure were a part of the American plan. I am sure my old hunting blind along the river dike would be a perfect spot to setup an ATGM. 

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, billbindc said:

As noted, a European agency with one source they couldn't corroborate told the CIA a plan existed but wouldn't allow the story to be checked. 

<psst! Have you seen the American plans to invade Canada yet?>

our space lasers are busy burning their forests in preparation....

[riptides]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Don't know if he is in russian payroll as many claim, but each of his points are sound. Especially these ones:

1.The russian fortified left bank is more affected. Minefields are gone, trenches are gone, fortifications are gone... Why they would blow a dam *after* they have fortified those positions and flood them with water? They must have already killed some of their troops.

2. Once the water dries out( and the hot summer is ideal for that) Ukraine will have much better chances to reach and reinforce breakthroughs to the south. 

3.Ukraine has targeted the dam before with high precision weapons like HIMARS. 

I'm sorry, also the Nord Stream latest reveals contradicts the belief the Russians did that in the first place. 

So, I'm being more than skeptical now...

re: 3. - I doubt a high precision weapon could cause that breech and destruction.

Sounds like a more internal placement.

re: 1. - Seriously doubt if certain Russians care about "their own" troops. These are people that shoot "their own". What's               to say the order to start swimming was not given?

[kevinkin]

38 minutes ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Can I ask you in what kind of "light" do you see Operation Chastise?

Good tactical point. But in the end the Western Europe thrived. In the present case, I don't think Ukraine would be involved directly in a obvious war crime. I don't think I will be around when the definitive history of this war is written. So who knows.  

Edited June 7, 2023 by kevinkin