How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

One has to wonder if there will be something left of Kharkiv when all this is over?

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

The Dude Abides....

Game over, man

 

 

 

 

[kraze]

16 minutes ago, womble said:

I remember someone (possibly Steve) saying early on that even taking fairly heavy losses in reducing the UKR AD system to marginal effectiveness would be worth the cost. But it certainly appears that they haven't taken the losses for any decisive result.

So, if the political will existed, and the calculus of risk indicated a favourable, non-escalatory outcome, would the West be able to do much better against what the Russians have deployed to cover the case of a no-fly zone being declared? Or are their AD arrangements as much of a clowncar as their logistics? It's evident that the hardware works in competent UKR hands...

The West tries to play it as safely as possible (which is a mistake, they can go harder without any risk, as not doing so only increases civilian casualties).

Like "giving planes" was a real deal until many politicians (starting with EU ones and snowballing from there) started screaming about it on every corner, trying to get Freedom Respect Points.

And off the deal went - because russians wouldn't know if those MiG29s shooting them down were Ukrainian from the get go or recently repainted into blue-yellow by uncle Ondrej in his polish rural shed - but now no Ondrej, Sam and Pierre want to take responsibility.

Same now goes for AD, although West now asks everyone to stfu, seriously.

Realistic way of going about the "no fly zone" right now seems to be all about giving us S-300 that some NATO members still possess. And I hope it happens, just that nobody knows about it.

Edited March 14, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

Mitsubishi L200 pick-ups, bought by civil volunteers are very popular in Army, but this one in service of TD

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I watched a video with 3 other captured near Mykolaiv, also "found in woods". But they were not Russians, but mobilized citizens of Makiivka, under control of DNR. They told they were mobilized on 24th Feb in 127th regiment (??? there is no such unit in Russian army, so this is new formed DNR unit) and moved to Kherson oblast and further to Mykolaiv for maintaining road security

These new ones are definitely sunflower fodder, Censor.net has a video with their dead bodies, obviously not something I can post here I guess

[John Kettler]

4 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Interesting story days on twitter are rare now (a good sign?) so its good to have a new Twitter roundup:

I dont even know what that is. A trench digger? 

BeondTheGrave,

The IMR-2 is a CEV (Combat Engineering Vehicle) on a T-72 chassis. It is a multicapable vehicle focused first and foremost on route clearing, whether the issue is mines (has track width mine plows), streets blocked with debris,  craters to be filled (variable angle dozer blade which can also be used as a plow) and a clawed crane to do things like remove trees across the roadway, telephone poles, etc.. It can also be used to demolish structures by ramming and build things, too, such as installing telephone poles and such, dig emplacements, etc. 
 

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 14, 2022 by John Kettler

[womble]

How hard would it be to make S300 missiles in the Free World and ship them in? I'd guess most of the former Soviet satellites might have some on hand to pass over, in return for Patriot replacements... but ammunition runs out eventually, even if all the other components have been preserved. I guess it'd just take too long to tool up.

Is there some sort of "calculus of HE" where experience tells those as know how many tons of artillery and rockets have been hurled at a given target? It seems like Russia isn't having as much problem serving its tubes down in the south as it might be in the north; are they getting seaborne supply via Kherson now, shortening the distance their trucks have to travel?

[Fenris]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I have a graphic photo of killed Russian officer and his passport, and claimed he was chief of staff deputy of 103rd missile brigade (Iskander-M). If this true, maybe information about wiped out Iskander battalion (four vehicles) is not so fantastic.  

I saw a photo of what was reportedly an Iskander missile (yesterday I think it was) and was wondering how the hell does an apparently intact missile of that size end up abandoned in the woods.  I'll see if I can find it.

This is the tweet, I don't know enough to say if it is an Iskander

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Fenris

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Thomm said:

I don't know. Doesn't this just make him a ... serial killer?

I find the fact that people travel to other countris to kill somewhat disturbing.

Best regards,
Thomm

I wouldn't want to argue with him about it, some very small percentage of people just like combat, just the way it has always been. He has a legally issued hunting license from the Ukrainian government, no limit stated, If the Russians don't like it they can go home.

[womble]

This piece on the Beeb is a bit worrying...

So, they're burning bridges, just to spite the West, because they won't be able to keep these planes flying, even if they take over all certification functions, no matter how permissive their regulatory environment, planes are going to start falling out of the sky, and then there won't be any need for aviation, because they won't be able to sell tickets. And they'll have to pay the lessors billions, as well as pay punitive insurance premiums if they ever do rejoin the "community of international aviation".

If Russia is acting as if there is no future, that doesn't bode well for the rest of us.

[Phantom Captain]

11 minutes ago, Fenris said:

I saw a photo of what was reportedly an Iskander missile (yesterday I think it was) and was wondering how the hell does an apparently intact missile of that size end up abandoned in the woods.  I'll see if I can find it.

This is the tweet, I don't know enough to say if it is an Iskander

 

Don't think it was abandoned.  I think it was ineffective.  It was fired and then fell to the ground without exploding and apparently short of wherever it was aimed?  It looks as if the motor has burned out.  Which just says one more thing about Russian effectiveness of everything so far.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[John Kettler]

2 hours ago, Probus said:

TU-95 doesn't fly high enough to get out of the range of Stingers and Starstreaks, as I understand it.  Prolly the higher it flies, the less of a bombload it can carry.  Plus Russian arty should be able to rain down that kind of destruction, if they haven't run out of rockets in Syria.

Probus,

Frankly, I'm in shock, for the Tu-95 is a strategic bomber whose ceiling is 13. 7 kms, jetliner flight level, and from a turboprop aircraft which is faster than quite a few jets. Haven't the faintest idea where you ever got the notion the mighty Tu-95 would, in the normal course of business, be in the MANPADS or SHORADs envelope,

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[Thomm]

Just now, dan/california said:

I wouldn't want to argue with him about it, some very small percentage of people just like combat, just the way it has always been. He has a legally issued hunting license from the Ukrainian government, no limit stated, If the Russians don't like it they can go home.

Guess so. But is it legal in Canada as well? 

After all, foreigners fighting for ISIS are put on trial when they come back home. At least here.

Is there any difference in the legal sense to this action?

Best regards
Thomm

[Haiduk]

Group of Russian troops of 138th motor-rifle brigade (Kamenka town, Leningrad oblast, Western military district) tried to dig-in in the tree-plant and hold the ground, but something went wrong.... 3 MTLB, 1 T-72B3 and Metis (or Metis-M) ATGM. Several graphic cadres.

  

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

Just now, Thomm said:

Guess so. But is it legal in Canada as well? 

After all, foreigners fighting for ISIS are put on trial when they come back home. At least here.

Is there any difference in the legal sense to this action?

Best regards
Thomm

Absolutely. The International Legion are enlisted personnel in the Ukrainian army. Ukraine is a recognised nation with a seat in the UN. I can't speak to Canadian law specifically, but International Law, such as it is, recognises them as legitimate combatants subject to the various Conventions.

If someone just wandered across the border and started shooting Russians, then they'd be a criminal. It's the imprimatur of Ukrainian acceptance (and the control that implies) that makes the volunteers "legal".

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Thomm said:

Guess so. But is it legal in Canada as well? 

After all, foreigners fighting for ISIS are put on trial when they come back home. At least here.

Is there any difference in the legal sense to this action?

Best regards
Thomm

Ukraine is not legally identified as a terrorist organization like ISIS was, so no.  They are essentially volunteering to fight under the authority of another state whose defence is recognized by the UN and the laws of armed conflict.  No different from those who went south to join the US military after 9/11.

[gnarly]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Group of Russian troops of 138th motor-rifle brigade (Kamenka town, Leningrad oblast, Western military district) tried to dig-in in the tree-plant and hold the ground, but something went wrong.... 3 MTLB, 1 T-72B3 and Metis (or Metis-M) ATGM. Several graphic cadres.

  

 

@Haiduk does the commentary indicate what/how eliminated them?

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

 

 

DesertFox,

This, whether towed or SP, is a deep strike weapon, effectively the replacement for the old, thoroughly impressive, 130 mm M46, you may recall was so nasty during the Vietnam War. Giatsint-B grossly outranged the US M109 SPH during the Cold War--and may still. Would have to check. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2A36_Giatsint-B

Regards,

John Kettler

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

There is so many Canadian volunteers over there, they have their own brigade.  Reportedly in the Kyiv area.  Here is their arm patch.  Five Hundred and Fifty in number so far and growing daily.

There's a LOT of Ukrainians here in Toronto. I know of one guy (brother of a friend) who's hone over. 

They are really, really, really angry. Seething. Spitting. 

Russian people I know here have gone super quiet online.

 

 

[Thomm]

7 minutes ago, womble said:

Absolutely. The International Legion are enlisted personnel in the Ukrainian army. Ukraine is a recognised nation with a seat in the UN. I can't speak to Canadian law specifically, but International Law, such as it is, recognises them as legitimate combatants subject to the various Conventions.

If someone just wandered across the border and started shooting Russians, then they'd be a criminal. It's the imprimatur of Ukrainian acceptance (and the control that implies) that makes the volunteers "legal".

 

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ukraine is not legally identified as a terrorist organization like ISIS was, so no.  They are essentially volunteering to fight under the authority of another state whose defence is recognized by the UN and the laws of armed conflict.  No different from those who went south to join the US military after 9/11.

Thank you, Gentlemen! Very interesting!

Best regards,
Thomm

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, womble said:

This piece on the Beeb is a bit worrying...

So, they're burning bridges, just to spite the West, because they won't be able to keep these planes flying, even if they take over all certification functions, no matter how permissive their regulatory environment, planes are going to start falling out of the sky, and then there won't be any need for aviation, because they won't be able to sell tickets. And they'll have to pay the lessors billions, as well as pay punitive insurance premiums if they ever do rejoin the "community of international aviation".

If Russia is acting as if there is no future, that doesn't bode well for the rest of us.

not surprising.  They can't not do it.  Without those aircraft internal travel in Russia would come to a grinding halt.  I don't think anyone in the kremlin is thinking long term right now.  Too busy fighting all the fires they have already.

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

BTR-4 hasn't thermal sight, just NV. This is TV-based FCS, which specially has sharp contrast picture. Though many BTR-4 turret operators scold the quality of image and unstable picture with many interferences, appearing during intensive firing. 

Haiduk,

Have seen a doc on the BTR-4 which clearly showed it had a thermal sight, and per this, the BTR-4MV1 most definitely has one. I truly believe the first part of the engagement was with thermals and the second with TV. If I'm wrong about the first part, then why, even at a fair distance, is the tank a brilliant white?

https://en.ukrmilitary.com/2017/11/btr-4.html

Regards,

John Kettler

[Haiduk]

10 minutes ago, gnarly said:

@Haiduk does the commentary indicate what/how eliminated them?

No. This guy just said they wanted to dig-in. They also tells some like "Javelin sets fire this stuff easily", but I doubt this was Javelin, maybe just mockery. He names himself like "third force". Usually this is a mame of DUK (Volunteer Ukrainian Corps), which units are working under operative subordinations of SOF and often makes own operation behind enemy lines. But I don't know what he meant under "third force" really.

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ukraine is not legally identified as a terrorist organization like ISIS was, so no.  They are essentially volunteering to fight under the authority of another state whose defence is recognized by the UN and the laws of armed conflict.  No different from those who went south to join the US military after 9/11.

it is a little complicated, but right now I think any western country that tried to prosecute its citizens for going to Ukraine would face a severe public backlash.

 

Ukraine’s foreign legion joins the battle against Russia (msn.com)

Although officials from Canada, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Latvia and other countries have openly or tacitly encouraged their citizens to join the Ukrainian army in its fight against Russia, there have also been questions about the legality of such an undertaking.

Countries like the UK and Canada have laws banning their citizens from participating in military action against a country they are not at war with.

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Have seen a doc on the BTR-4 which clearly showed it had a thermal sight, and per this, the BTR-4MV1

MV variant exists only in one copy for exhibitions. In service only early BTR-4E and some upgraded BTR-4E1, but both havn't thermals.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Haiduk