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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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40 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Are Russians only fighting inside vehicles stuck in highways ? I haven't seen any foot soldier action inside towns and cities. If I was playing a CM battles and was facing a myriad of very capable AT weapons I would use a heavy infantry force to counter that. Seems they have only limited special forces and conscript infantry with no clue how to fight in cities. 

Also, are Kadyrov's men still fighting around Kiev or after the initial losses they have withdrawn. Haven't seen any reports on that. 

You can find some videos about Russian VDV and SOF breakthrew in Kharkiv several days ago. There was a street fights and the seizing of school building, where they withdrew and held it until our tank arrived. In most cases we hit Russians on their way, we ambush them, our mobile AT-group on military and civil pick-ups with NLAW, Javelins, RPGs constantly in search&destroy tasks. So, there are not so much "classical" fightings, but they, of course, take place too, but we will know about them later.

There are heavy urban combats now in Mariupol and Volnovakha. But I think our soldiers havn't much time to film....

About Kadyrov's fighters. They just mostly have been looting occupied villages and towns nearby and film boastful videos. If you will see a dead body with silver tape on the arm - this is Kadyrov's trooper.    

Edited by Haiduk
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54 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I haven't seen any foot soldier action inside towns and cities. ... Seems they have only limited special forces and conscript infantry with no clue how to fight in cities. 

If the Russians are ordered into urban combat then they would be "crazy".  We all know how bloody MOUT is and how many troops are required.   Population of Mosul: 1.8M  Pop of Kviv: 2.8M.  

Am still predicting that if the Russians can't get a knock out blow, they will go on the strategic defensive holding strategically important items like power plants and the "land bridge" linking Crimea to Russia.  It's hard to see Ukraine being viable with some cities surrounded and large swathes of the country under Russian control.  We can't kick them out like we did to ISIS.  Can't see being able to conduct another "Berlin airlift" operation to supply cities like Kviv.

In addition, attacking Russians who are just trying to defend themselves will also greatly increase Ukrainian casualties and play into Russian propaganda akin rousing patriotic passions akin to those seen in the "Great Patriotic War" of WW2.  

In any case the west keeps sending "defensive" weapons".  The Polish plan offer seems to be falling apart.  US spokesman says "...will not add much to Ukrainian power..." which sounds like a cop out. 

From WSJ: "Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Wednesday that the decision “must be unanimous and unequivocally taken by all of the North Atlantic Alliance.”

On Wednesday U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin formally nixed the MiG transfer to Ukraine. The failure of Team Biden to back up Warsaw is a failure of U.S. leadership."

What military forces does Ukraine have to go on the offensive with?

If the Russians can just sit there long enough Putin would get a "win" from the perspective of his Russian audience.

Edited by Erwin
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15 minutes ago, Erwin said:

If the Russians are ordered into urban combat then they would be "crazy".  We all know how bloody MOUT is and how many troops are required.   Population of Mosul: 1.8M  Pop of Kviv: 2.8M.  

Am still predicting that if the Russians can't get a knock out blow, they will go on the strategic defensive holding strategically important items like power plants and the "land bridge" linking Crimea to Russia.  It's hard to see Ukraine being viable with some cities surrounded and large swathes of the country under Russian control.  We can't kick them out like we did to ISIS.  Can't see being able to conduct another "Berlin airlift" operation to supply cities like Kviv.

In addition, attacking Russians who are just trying to defend themselves will also greatly increase Ukrainian casualties and play into Russian propaganda akin rousing patriotic passions akin to those seen in the "Great Patriotic War" of WW2.  

In any case the west keeps sending "defensive" weapons".  The Polish plan offer seems to be falling apart.  US spokesman says "...will not add much to Ukrainian power..." which sounds like a cop out. 

What military forces does Ukraine have to go on the offensive with?

If the Russians can just sit there long enough Putin would get a "win" from the perspective of his Russian audience.

I think we are focused on Russian military staying power that does not take into account a Russian economy that is ceasing to exist.

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13 minutes ago, Erwin said:

In addition, attacking Russians who are just trying to defend themselves will also greatly increase Ukrainian casualties and play into Russian propaganda akin rousing patriotic passions akin to those seen in the "Great Patriotic War" of WW2.  

If the Russians want to sit around in defensive positions, then they still need to keep those positions supplied, which means controlling the supply routes securely enough. And in that scenario you have to wonder how long it will be before NATO starts handing significant quantities of artillery over to Ukraine, which they can mass in one place after another.. That gives a defending unit the option to try and attack to disrupt the artillery, which makes them vulnerable again, or sit tight and get shelled for a nice long time.

The information superiority the Ukrainians have plays in to that too. 

I don't see that just turtlng to try and hold the Crimea land bridge and just out-waiting the Ukrainians is going to be a viable plan. Even before you factor in the domestic and economic situation in Russia.

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Thought I'd supply some recent links on the latest developments ref biolabs in Ukraine, concerning which both China and Russia have made official statements. China says the US has 26 biolabs in Ukraine. The Russians have published a claimed emergency order from February 22 (the day the invasion began) from the Ukrainian Ministry of Health ordering destruction of pathogens, etc. Please note well the complete absence of infowars and the letter used to denote an interrogative from what I provided. Also, sent Steve none of these. The first one is from yesterday, March 9.

From a Pakistan defense blog

The first item is from middleeastmonitor.com. 

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/china-calls-on-washington-to-unveil-bio-labs-in-ukraine-china-demands-answers-from-us-for-26-biolabs-in-ukraine.737235/

The meat of the article reads:


China's statement came a day after the defence ministry in Moscow accused the US of running 30 biological labs in Ukraine, producing viruses that cause serious diseases. The head of Russia's radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov, noted that Russian troops have destroyed some of them, reported Anadolu Agency.

"Military biological programmes are being implemented by the Pentagon in post-Soviet countries, including in Ukraine," explained Kirillov. "A network of more than 30 biological laboratories has been created, which can be divided into research and sanitary-epidemiological sites in the cities of Lviv, Kharkiv, and Poltava."

The Russian official added that there were traces of pathogens of the plague, anthrax, brucellosis, diphtheria, salmonellosis and dysentery. Neither Kyiv nor Washington commented on this.

Kirillov noted that in Lviv alone, 232 containers were destroyed containing the causative agent of leptospirosis, 30 with tularaemia, 10 with brucellosis and five with plague.

In the same context, Moscow claimed that Washington spent more than $200 million on the work of the biological labs in Ukraine. Furthermore, it alleged that the labs of the Central Directorate of Health and Epidemiology of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence participated in the US military biological programme.



The second is from Pakistan's The Express Tribune and is also quite pithy.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2347167/china-demands-answers-from-us-for-26-biolabs-in-ukraine

China asked Washington on Tuesday to release “relevant details as soon as possible” regarding alleged US biological laboratories in Ukraine.

“According to the data released by the US itself, the US has 26 biological laboratories and other related facilities in Ukraine which has indeed attracted great attention,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a news conference in Beijing.

A similar claim was made Sunday by Russian Defence Ministry that there was “evidence of a US-financed military biological programme developed in Ukraine.”

Moscow said the lab was “revealed during Russia’s special operation in that country.”

“All dangerous viruses in Ukraine must be stored in these laboratories. All research activities are led by the US. No information is allowed to be disclosed without the permission of the US side,” claimed Zhao, according to a transcription of the news conference.

He claimed the Pentagon “has absolute control” over these alleged labs.

 

Here is ample evidence the biolabs exist and that Russia has been sounding the alarm over them from a BW standpoint going clear back to 2015.

https://www.networkradio.us/post/the-united-biolabs-of-ukraine


 

And here we have reports of official US statement from the US Embassy in Kviv the labs exist, the letter from no fewer than four members of the Rada officially notifying Zelensky and two other Ukrainian government officials of their concerns about the labs, which they explicitly state are DOD controlled and that the Ukrainian Ministry of Health was working with them. Of particular note are their statements regarding hundreds of deaths (450) in one incident alone and total deaths of nearly 1000. They express concern as to BW and that the Ukrainian people may be the targets of the work. There are maps produced by Bulgarian journalists showing the locations of the labs, all sorts of material on the work being done, funding ($2.1 BILLION for DOD (from DTRA) funded biolabs worldwide), a statement from the US Embassy the Pentagon was supervising the labs, and all sorts of agreements and arrangements produced as well. Digital images of some of the purported documents (in Ukrainian) are included.

https://seemorerocks.is/the-secret-us-biolabs-in-ukraine/


Shall close with a very long, excruciatingly detailed and well documented look at the ongoing, clandestine and protected by diplomatic cover and corporate insulation from surveillance and oversight US BW program. As a longtime student of BW and CW, as well as someone who had to become directly involved in both as a Soviet Threat Analyst when working on aircrew and aircraft NBC protection for the Rockwell's Advanced Tactical Fighter, I found even spot reading harrowing.

Among other things, it shows that a US lab in Georgia was doing real work (2014) with virus-infected biting flies (from the Philippines!), and that these same non-indigenous to the area biting flies then appeared in Dagestan, Russia, ((2014) shortly after they appeared out of nowhere in Tbilisi, Georgia (2014) and became a real problem. There was NO biting fly problem in Tbilisi BEFORE the insect facility was established at the biolab there. In both locations everyone bitten by them developed mysterious rashes. The US Army ran a multi-year program in which it did testing of insect-transmitted viruses on soldiers using various insect species to bite the test subjects. The declassified Army documents proving this insect-delivered testing was done are now available. Would note that the use of insects as BW vectors is well established, such as the infected flea bombs the Japanese created in the notorious Unit 731 and dropped on the Chinese.

https://goldenageofgaia.com/2020/04/20/pentagon-biological-weapons-program-never-ended/

Shall be most interested to see the responses to the above, and I ask my critics especially to read the articles and think about them, and do their own checking, rather than abreacting and going off on me (not to mention using the threat of a vacation to silence me)  simply because they disagree with me, the subject or don't want to believe it could be real. 

The new materials I found provide an excellent basis for understanding why the Russians have been long (since 2015) and loudly sounding the alarm ref the DOD-funded biolabs in Ukraine. 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited by John Kettler
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A wider global perspective from WSJ:  "

 “… while the immediate threat is Russia, the more formidable one is China.  … Regardless of the outcome, Moscow’s actions demonstrate that force is the final arbiter between nations. Taiwan is the clearest state in this circumstance. Like Ukraine, it is affiliated with American security structures but formally outside them. Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has no strategic depth. Also unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is crucial to the global economic order—its semiconductor production sustains high-technology production internationally. A ruinous war around the island would trigger economic effects that make the Ukraine crisis look like a daily stock-market dip.

Even if NATO proves diffident in Ukraine, we can expect a strong Western defense of Taiwan because of the latter’s economic importance and centrality in America’s Indo-Pacific defense posture. Even so, we can expect Mr. Xi’s China to modify its calculus, recognizing that the Russian invasion of Ukraine might have a desensitizing effect and make an attack on Taiwan less shocking than it would otherwise be.

China hopes that Russia, humbled or emboldened by its Ukraine adventure—and with or without Mr. Putin at the helm—will occupy Western attention as Beijing gobbles up the choicest Pacific possessions and extends its economic and diplomatic tendrils into the Middle East, Africa and Eastern Europe. Far from accepting independent Russian action, China is counting on Russian failure to accelerate the satisfaction of its boundless appetite.

That will create two blocs, not three. On the one side will stand the U.S. and its allies, on the other China and its affiliates and satellites. War between the two is all but inevitable. The U.S. must take note: Triangulation against China is impossible with Russia in an abject state of economic dependence. The large strategic issue in the Ukraine war is the possibility of China’s domination of Eurasia.”

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15 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Thought I'd supply some recent links on the latest developments ref biolabs in Ukraine, concerning which both China and Russia have made official statements. China says the US has 26 biolabs in Ukraine. The Russians have published a claimed emergency order from February 22 (the day the invasion began) from the Ukrainian Ministry of Health ordering destruction of pathogens, etc.
 

Attached is an image the the Russians are using of this alleged emergency order to destroy pathogens.  Maybe some of our Ukrainian members can confirm what the text in the order actually says.

Helpfully it lists all the 'pathogens' in latin alphabet (see below)

And to quote from another informed source:

Quote

Absolutely none of these are biological warfare agents. They are, for the most part, routinely used in general microbiology labs. Most are available without restriction from the American Type Culture Collection, which holds baseline microoganisms for researchers. Anthrax and the Plague are not on this list.

Candida albicans N300 
Escherichia coli ATCC N25922 
Serratia marcescens N259
Shigella sonnei N151 
Shigella flexneri N170 
Salmonella rp B Typhimurium N91
Proteus vulgaris N14
Enterobacter aerogenes N190 
Staphylococcus aureus ATCC N25923
Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC N27853 
Escherichia coli O 55 N43-4
Escherichia coli B N15
Proteus mirabilis N25
Klebsiella pneumonia N38
Corynebacterium pseudodiphtheriticum N17
Corynebacterium xerosis NC 12078
Corynebacterium diphtheriae var gravis tox +
Corynebacterium diphtheriae var mitis tox -
Bacillus licheniformis BKM 1711
Bacillus stearothermophilus BKM 718

aKwHL.jpg

Edited by TheVulture
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21 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Attached is an image the the Russians are using of this alleged emergency order to destroy pathogens.  Maybe some of our Ukrainian members can confirm what the text in the order actually says.

Helpfully it lists all the 'pathogens' in latin alphabet (see below)

And to quote from another informed source:

Candida albicans N300 
Escherichia coli ATCC N25922 
Serratia marcescens N259
Shigella sonnei N151 
Shigella flexneri N170 
Salmonella rp B Typhimurium N91
Proteus vulgaris N14
Enterobacter aerogenes N190 
Staphylococcus aureus ATCC N25923
Pseudomonas aeruginosa ATCC N27853 
Escherichia coli O 55 N43-4
Escherichia coli B N15
Proteus mirabilis N25
Klebsiella pneumonia N38
Corynebacterium pseudodiphtheriticum N17
Corynebacterium xerosis NC 12078
Corynebacterium diphtheriae var gravis tox +
Corynebacterium diphtheriae var mitis tox -
Bacillus licheniformis BKM 1711
Bacillus stearothermophilus BKM 718

aKwHL.jpg

Every single country has biolabs researching pathogens, unless it's an absolute backwater ****hole with zero medical research budget.

Because to produce meds you need that stuff you are targeting with meds to test meds against.

Saying that "omg a country has biolabs with dangerous viruses" is a great argument only for absolutely uneducated people who have zero clue about how medicine works. E.g. not very intelligent conspiracy consumers.

Edited by kraze
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35 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Thought I'd supply some recent links on the latest developments ref biolabs in Ukraine, concerning which both China and Russia have made official statements. China says the US has 26 biolabs in Ukraine. The Russians have published a claimed emergency order from February 22 (the day the invasion began) from the Ukrainian Ministry of Health ordering destruction of pathogens, etc. Please note well the complete absence of infowars and the letter used to denote an interrogative from what I provided. Also, sent Steve none of these. The first one is from yesterday, March 9.

From a Pakistan defense blog

The first item is from middleeastmonitor.com. 

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/china-calls-on-washington-to-unveil-bio-labs-in-ukraine-china-demands-answers-from-us-for-26-biolabs-in-ukraine.737235/

The meat of the article reads:


China's statement came a day after the defence ministry in Moscow accused the US of running 30 biological labs in Ukraine, producing viruses that cause serious diseases. The head of Russia's radiation, chemical and biological protection force, Igor Kirillov, noted that Russian troops have destroyed some of them, reported Anadolu Agency.

"Military biological programmes are being implemented by the Pentagon in post-Soviet countries, including in Ukraine," explained Kirillov. "A network of more than 30 biological laboratories has been created, which can be divided into research and sanitary-epidemiological sites in the cities of Lviv, Kharkiv, and Poltava."

The Russian official added that there were traces of pathogens of the plague, anthrax, brucellosis, diphtheria, salmonellosis and dysentery. Neither Kyiv nor Washington commented on this.

Kirillov noted that in Lviv alone, 232 containers were destroyed containing the causative agent of leptospirosis, 30 with tularaemia, 10 with brucellosis and five with plague.

In the same context, Moscow claimed that Washington spent more than $200 million on the work of the biological labs in Ukraine. Furthermore, it alleged that the labs of the Central Directorate of Health and Epidemiology of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence participated in the US military biological programme.



The second is from Pakistan's The Express Tribune and is also quite pithy.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2347167/china-demands-answers-from-us-for-26-biolabs-in-ukraine

China asked Washington on Tuesday to release “relevant details as soon as possible” regarding alleged US biological laboratories in Ukraine.

“According to the data released by the US itself, the US has 26 biological laboratories and other related facilities in Ukraine which has indeed attracted great attention,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a news conference in Beijing.

A similar claim was made Sunday by Russian Defence Ministry that there was “evidence of a US-financed military biological programme developed in Ukraine.”

Moscow said the lab was “revealed during Russia’s special operation in that country.”

“All dangerous viruses in Ukraine must be stored in these laboratories. All research activities are led by the US. No information is allowed to be disclosed without the permission of the US side,” claimed Zhao, according to a transcription of the news conference.

He claimed the Pentagon “has absolute control” over these alleged labs.

 

Here is ample evidence the biolabs exist and that Russia has been sounding the alarm over them from a BW standpoint going clear back to 2015.

https://www.networkradio.us/post/the-united-biolabs-of-ukraine


 

And here we have reports of official US statement from the US Embassy in Kviv the labs exist, the letter from no fewer than four members of the Rada officially notifying Zelensky and two other Ukrainian government officials of their concerns about the labs, which they explicitly state are DOD controlled and that the Ukrainian Ministry of Health was working with them. Of particular note are their statements regarding hundreds of deaths (450) in one incident alone and total deaths of nearly 1000. They express concern as to BW and that the Ukrainian people may be the targets of the work. There are maps produced by Bulgarian journalists showing the locations of the labs, all sorts of material on the work being done, funding ($2.1 BILLION for DOD (from DTRA) funded biolabs worldwide), a statement from the US Embassy the Pentagon was supervising the labs, and all sorts of agreements and arrangements produced as well. Digital images of some of the purported documents (in Ukrainian) are included.

https://seemorerocks.is/the-secret-us-biolabs-in-ukraine/


Shall close with a very long, excruciatingly detailed and well documented look at the ongoing, clandestine and protected by diplomatic cover and corporate insulation from surveillance and oversight US BW program. As a longtime student of BW and CW, as well as someone who had to become directly involved in both as a Soviet Threat Analyst when working on aircrew and aircraft NBC protection for the Rockwell's Advanced Tactical Fighter, I found even spot reading harrowing.

Among other things, it shows that a US lab in Georgia was doing real work (2014) with virus-infected biting flies (from the Philippines!), and that these same non-indigenous to the area biting flies then appeared in Dagestan, Russia, ((2014) shortly after they appeared out of nowhere in Tbilisi, Georgia (2014) and became a real problem. There was NO biting fly problem in Tbilisi BEFORE the insect facility was established at the biolab there. In both locations everyone bitten by them developed mysterious rashes. The US Army ran a multi-year program in which it did testing of insect-transmitted viruses on soldiers using various insect species to bite the test subjects. The declassified Army documents proving this insect-delivered testing was done are now available. Would note that the use of insects as BW vectors is well established, such as the infected flea bombs the Japanese created in the notorious Unit 731 and dropped on the Chinese.

https://goldenageofgaia.com/2020/04/20/pentagon-biological-weapons-program-never-ended/

Shall be most interested to see the responses to the above, and I ask my critics especially to read the articles and think about them, and do their own checking, rather than abreacting and going off on me (not to mention using the threat of a vacation to silence me)  simply because they disagree with me, the subject or don't want to believe it could be real. 

The new materials I found provide an excellent basis for understanding why the Russians have been long (since 2015) and loudly sounding the alarm ref the DOD-funded biolabs in Ukraine. 

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Are you Mad ?

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4 hours ago, kraze said:

According to that map it looks as if russians occupy every single village and town they have passed on the road. Which is not true, especially in the northern half of Ukraine - they have no effective holding force in any number, not even a good protected rear - hence why their supply convoys keep burning daily.

And in the south they were stalled by several dozens of parked choppers suddenly catching fire - to a point where their whole VDV had to f off back to Crimea because they have nothing to drop them into Odessa with atm.

Mariupol itself is surrounded and is getting the beating bordering on genocidal, yet hardcore vets of Azov still manage to go out and mess up russians bad, taking whole trophy tanks.

 

This map is true if it is WW2 era thinking, but this isn't WW2.

The only frontline that can be drawn semi-reliably is in the south, the other area is a mess of surrounding forces getting surrounded themselves.

Good to know...

The only Ukrainian ground Russians occupy is the ground they are currently standing on.

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6 minutes ago, kraze said:

Every single country has biolabs researching pathogens, unless it's an absolute backwater ****hole with zero medical research budget.

Because to produce meds you need that stuff you are targeting with meds to produce meds.

Saying that "omg a country has biolabs with dangerous viruses" is a great argument only for absolutely uneducated people who have zero clue about how anything works.

Yup. As far as I can see, there's nothing in the list of 'pathogens' to indicate this is anything more sinister than testing disinfectant on common every-day pathogens that you'd find in the average kitchen. 

Suggesting that its a bio-weapons facility is ridiculous with the evidence provided so far.

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3 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Yup. As far as I can see, there's nothing in the list of 'pathogens' to indicate this is anything more sinister than testing disinfectant on common every-day pathogens that you'd find in the average kitchen. 

Suggesting that its a bio-weapons facility is ridiculous with the evidence provided so far.

Only significant takeaway from all this is that US far right is still a willing and compliant agent of Russian active measures.

In other news:

 

Edited by akd
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52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Grill bars didn't help... Ideas?

The big nest like a stork?

Take a cookie!  

Зображення

Haiduk,

These would, especially if wet, somewhat reduce the IR emissions from the tank. Contrary to popular belief, IR can't see through walls or even tarps. Piling all that vegetation on would, depending on the ground and ground cover, greatly reduce the chances of being seen and targeted, especially when static.  Am quite surprised we've seen no evidence of the broadband camouflage system called Nakidka deployed in Ukraine.

Nakidka

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nakidka

According to NII Stali (Scientific Research Institute of Steel), which designed Nakidka, it reduces the chances of detection by day/night viewers and TV systems and seekers by thirty percent, infrared seekers by two- to three-fold, radar by six-fold, and reduces the thermal-radar signature to near-background levels.[1]Nakidka is efficient in the optical, IR and radar wavelength bands up to 12 cm (4.7 in), and also reduces the radar cross section by 10 db.[1]

https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/nsdraftroom/nakidka-tank-stealth-kit-t9554.html

Here is imagery in multiple frequency bands, as well as plots showing how much Nakidka degrades the performance o varios types of sensors.

 

https://aw.my.games/en/news/general/historical-skins-t-90ms-nakidka

Apparently, the Russian Army doesn't use it, which is extremely odd and ill advised, given its extraordinary capabilities and cheapness ($2700 per tank). 



A crack ex-Canadian Army sniper is coming to Ukraine to fight the Russians.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10595277/Canadian-sniper-arrives-Ukraine-answering-President-Zelenskys-call-foreign-fighters.html

 

Regards,

John Kettler

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2 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Yup. As far as I can see, there's nothing in the list of 'pathogens' to indicate this is anything more sinister than testing disinfectant on common every-day pathogens that you'd find in the average kitchen. 

Suggesting that its a bio-weapons facility is ridiculous with the evidence provided so far.

Yep, having worked in a microbiology lab some 20 years ago those are all pretty common bacteria used for academic research. Some of those I handled frequently in the lab myself. Nothing unusual here, every biology or microbiology department has them stored in liquid nitrogene or at -20degrees somewhere.

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Sorry  maybe I was being rude - But I see  responses from John K which seem to be  of two types - 1)  Kind of useful insights into   Military / Technical issues being discussed  which I enjoy reading  . 2) Crazy statements  that I would expect to see from a Qanon Follower

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