How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 

The bridge in Krasnorichyns'ke

Railroad bridge in Svatove

Reportedly UKR troops cut Svatove - Kreminna road in Ploshchanka village area (I posted the video with UKR troopers and "Oncilla" armored car - it was geolocated in that place)

[Haiduk]

VABs column of 46th air-assaulr brigade in Kherson oblast

 

[A Canadian Cat]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of course you do!  We Americans know the polite, considerate public face of Canada is just a mask to hide your true power hunger nature.

LOL you know it

I still think that Putin's disconnection from the reality of the situation makes his decisions delusional by definition. You are also correct that he is not insane from a clinical standpoint so I also get your point that if he got information that better reflects really he'd make better decisions. I just don't see how that is possible. Based on the system he created.

[The_MonkeyKing]

TIL I learned you can do this:

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major (retired, served in spetsnaz) Aleksandr Martinkiyan, probably chief of staff deputy of PMC Wagner assault detachment or maybe even had a duty in Wagner HQ - Prigozhin personally visited his burials. Killed on 20th of Oct

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-officers-complain-their-soldiers-steal-equipment-in-ukraine-50280315.html

[Huba]

23 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

TIL I learned you can do this:

That is cheating! Also, I absolutely love it - it's so obvious that I wouldn't ever thought it possible  
 

Also, was that posted here yet? Repost just to make sure:

 

[Haiduk]

Today's shot down Russian Mi-24/35 in Kharkiv oblast 

[Taranis]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

VABs column of 46th air-assaulr brigade in Kherson oblast

Interesting, a tripod directly ready for use is directly placed on the roof of the vehicle and not inside. Nice marking on the rear VAB (vertical white stripe, à la CMBS)

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, IanL said:

LOL you know it

I still think that Putin's disconnection from the reality of the situation makes his decisions delusional by definition. You are also correct that he is not insane from a clinical standpoint so I also get your point that if he got information that better reflects really he'd make better decisions. I just don't see how that is possible. Based on the system he created.

The thing is, I suspect he is receiving better information and council now vs. the start of the war. 

When the war started I saw "delusion" everywhere.  In my exchanges with TheCapt I said that the first week of the war was delusional, as was the better part of the next month.  That's because clearly everything that Russia was doing was failing miserably, but they kept doing it anyway. 

The madness stopped when Russia pulled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as west of Kherson.  This was obviously the result of some very clear headed thinking that Putin was involved in.  Otherwise the madness would have continued until total strategic collapse.

The MoD switched strategy to pursuing more limited operations in the Donbas using mass fires.  Again, Putin had to be involved in this as it was a departure from his stated war aims.  This continued from Easter to about when the infamous river crossing failed.

Once again, Russia shifted strategy towards a very narrow operation to expand Luhansk territory by a frontal attack.  As with the other two shifts, this was not an accident.  Someone got accurate information to Putin and Putin signed off on it.

This has happened a few times since.  Even the reinforcement of Kherson was the result of a strategic reassessment that Putin had to have been involved with to some degree.

Putin also relented to doing a partial mobilization after it was made clear to him that the secret mobilization and mercenary route was not able to keep up with losses.

So on and so forth.

Most of the failings of Russian forces lately is more in the realm of traditional "hope for the best" not going well and "politics dictate policy" creating situations like Bakhmut.

Still, I think the info Putin is getting remains flawed and biased by egos, chauvinism, racism, and overestimating what Russia's true capabilities are.  Not to the point of delusion, just the usual judgement mistakes.

Steve

[akd]

8 hours ago, Markus86 said:

You must watch until the end. 

 

If you were wondering how this ended up published to the Internet:

 

[danfrodo]

Great posts folks, thanks much. 

1.  Putin & delusion.  I'll pile on by saying that the reason so many dictators fall into the same 'delusional' space is that they live in a world without accountability for years on end.  They can act with impunity.  The lack of consequences means they don't ever have to question themselves or be questioned by others.  It leads to this kind of behavior.  Imagine you can completely wreck your country for a full generation or more, getting dozens of thousands killed and many times that wounded, and still be in power.  All by your choices alone.  That is impunity on an  insane scale.

2.  I saw post somewhere else where UKR reporting that RU is moving artillery out of Kherson, across the river.  I am still confused about just how much transport is available for them across the river.  I hate seeing RU assets get out of the kessel. 

3.  What a difference in where we are today, with UKR getting artillery superiority.  RU wasted it's shells & tubes leveling places that won't change the overall war outcome -- more super genius at work.  I am betting Putin has spent much of this war in full Hitler mode -- "the enemy is nearly exhausted and will collapse soon!"

4.  RU blowing bridges south of Svatove -- you don't do that unless you are losing ground.  There's blackout on info but that fact seems to say a lot on that front.  Meanwhile Bakhmut taking a real pounding it seems -- not that it matters in the big picture, but it sure matters to the poor sods holding RU back.  Kherson kessel getting weaker it looks like.

5.  Hello MUD.  Loved mud in March/April, not loving it now.

[Haiduk]

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, akd said:

If you were wondering how this ended up published to the Internet:

 

Reading the comments proved interesting for once.  Someone pointed out that there were multiple sightings of Mosin Nagant rifles in the video.  Sure enough, right around 38 seconds you can see some.

Steve

[Huba]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It is hilarious  On a more serious note though, this is the main reason to doubt in any Russian plans to attack in the Lviv direction - the risk of an unfortunate incident is just too big, and repercussions might quickly get out of hand.

On a related note, today's Rybar fuels the fear of PL, claiming that our aviation companies are working on integration of SCALP/ Storm Shadow with Ukrainian Su-24s. Of course he's talking out of his bum of course, but it would be great if he was right just this one time

Edited October 30, 2022 by Huba

[Artkin]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

With Belarus as their neighbor who could blame them?

[Haiduk]

Antonivskyi bridge area in Kherson was struck twice during a hour 

 

[kevinkin]

19 hours ago, dan/california said:

This requires immediate in game testing.

Will do. Around the are of Bakhmuts'ke. Only place to hide are folds in the ground. Need to disperse the AI or move them concentrated and fast.  

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Thanks for detailed post, this Vuhledar offensive is a mysterious one, as Russian sources did cherished it heavily.

Btw. do you know what Ukrainians are saying about cause of rapid increase in enemy casualties? Almost 1000 a day is very sharp raise from 300-500 a day.

I saw a single tweet about a convoy of newly arrived mobiks getting a dose of the tungsten rain. Of course I can't find it again. It was in southeastern Kherson towards the limit of Himars range. Of course I can't find it again.

More generally we have all expected the pushing of utterly unprepared units to the battlefield to increase Russian casualties, We might have underestimated the size of the effect. Think about how quickly you can get a whole battalion wiped in CMBS if you do something truly stupid. Now imagine a battalion of mobiks with doddering/drunk/nonexistent officers actually doing those things.

 

Edit: found it on ISW, was Bakmuht.

" The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted a high-precision strike against Russian forces, who were preparing for another attack, south of Bakhmut near Mayorsk on October 28.[45] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike killed approximately 300 Russian personnel and that Russian forces evacuated 60 wounded personnel to a medical facility in Horlivka, Donetsk Oblast.[46] The Ukrainian General Staff subsequently did not report any Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut in either its morning or its evening reports.[47]"

Good catch. I suppose UA may often inflate victims of Himars/artillery strikes that are by nature difficult to assess.

 

Another well put video by Anders Puck Nielsen that is worth to watch. Nothing especially new, but from the start of this conflict he was on the spot on many issues and -despite being Danish- not hamletizing like many public military analysts.

 

[Artkin]

NEAR IR (NIR) compliant clothing will be oh so essential during the winter, when the vegetation dies down. The top half of this MARPAT sheet is treated and blends in. The bottom half isn't treated and stands out like a sore thumb.

 

NIR treated clothing in practice:

A bit of grogging out... I hope Ukraine gets issued something like this. Cheap, and will save their lives against well equipped foes:

https://www.wildthingsgear.com/collections/overwhites/products/white-out-overwhites

Edited October 30, 2022 by Artkin

[benpark]

1 hour ago, akd said:

If you were wondering how this ended up published to the Internet:

This is one of the most fascinating bits of Russian video I've seen, even without the crash- which is just mental as anything. The shout to "Take us home!" begs the question if he meant back over the border. I didn't see any indication of how the footage was obtained on that Tweet, but I'm using an outliner to read these Twit things.

There's a slightly longer version with a link buried in a Reddit thread that I'll try to find that adds some extra to the start, along with more milling about under fire. The gear and weaponry is indeed heading into Mad Max (or Sad Max, in this case) territory.

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1586835602397446144

Will be interesting to observe how it will look like. If they indeed will manage to make a convoy that  go through (I doubt Erdogan will be so bold, but we will see), it may weaken Putin's position on this issue.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1586835602397446144

Will be interesting to observe how it will look like. If they indeed will manage to make a convoy that  go through (I doubt Erdogan will be so bold, but we will see), it may weaken Putin's position on this issue.

This are very good news. Quite a bold move, though the true test would come with moving empty vessels TO Ukrainian ports. Forcing Putin's hand at every possibility is the correct way to deal with him, accepting his threats means losing.

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/status/1586835602397446144

Will be interesting to observe how it will look like. If they indeed will manage to make a convoy that  go through (I doubt Erdogan will be so bold, but we will see), it may weaken Putin's position on this issue.

I wonder if NATO will provide air cover to these vessels?  At some point Putin's holding the world's food supply hostage needs to be confronted.  What if these vessels are attacked via mines, where Putin says the mines were UKR?  Or of course the usual culprit, the Brits. 

I am still confident that the Biden admin won't do anything to freak out the US public until after the Nov 8 elections.

[Zeleban]