How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kimbosbread]

46 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I agree, but snipers don't make machine guns obsolete! Sometimes you have an "oh crap" moment where you need a lot of fire very quickly, and mortars do that very well.

If each mortar bomb weighs 4.5kg, and each drone weighs the same, and the drones have some basic last-mile autonomy (which we already seeing), is there any reason to belive the drones can’t deliver the same volume of fire, but with much more accuracy and range, but a much smaller logistical footprint?

[Offshoot]

6 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Here’s a question: Of the truck-based artillery, which is better, Caesar or Archer? Archer sounds great from the whole shoot and scoot perspective and automation (and thus less injuries carrying stuff and TBI), but Caesar appears to cheaper and lighter.

Don't forget the Bohdana - Ukraine’s Bohdana howitzer is rolling off production lines – here’s what it can do

It sounds like it is not without problems, but if Ukraine can produce enough the numbers and self-sufficiency might help.

Edited April 21 by Offshoot

[dan/california]

A whole bunch more to say if I get time, but it was great to come back from vacation to goods news the funding, and the bomber shoot down.

[hcrof]

30 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

If each mortar bomb weighs 4.5kg, and each drone weighs the same, and the drones have some basic last-mile autonomy (which we already seeing), is there any reason to belive the drones can’t deliver the same volume of fire, but with much more accuracy and range, but a much smaller logistical footprint?

You might be right tbh, when drones become mature enough. But I would hedge if I were purchasing right now, maybe that drone counterswarm arrives? Or better counter-ai camouflage? But then hedging would also mean not purchasing that fancy new mortar! I'm glad I don't have to make those decisions...

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

I agree, but snipers don't make machine guns obsolete!

Ah, the pitfalls of analogies   What I was focusing on the effect, which is one round from a sniper can have just as much effect as several rounds from a mortar.  The fact that snipers haven't replaced MGs is completely separate (basically it is impractical for a long list of reasons).

So what I'm saying is FPVs are shot for shot superior to mortars by a very wide margin.  Up until recently availability and cost meant that the mortars still had a lot of things going for it vs. FPVs.  However, it seems to me we're getting to a the point where the drawbacks of mortars is equal or greater than FPVs.  In part because mortars are more vulnerable to FPVs than they were previously vulnerable to other mortars and artillery.

1 hour ago, hcrof said:

Sometimes you have an "oh crap" moment where you need a lot of fire very quickly, and mortars do that very well.

Sure, but if your mortars are hiding because being exposed results in them being knocked out, then are the mortars likely to be available to provide this sort of rapid fire?  That's the point the Russian source was making.  They have stopped relying upon mortars because if they are too difficult to keep functional.

Drones, either as spotters or as loitering munitions, have made it extremely difficult to remain in one place long enough to fire effectively without serious risk of being attacked.  Even if the chance is as low as 1 in 10, that's problematic for a system that is needs to be relatively stationary to be useful.  Even if it moved every day and fired only once, odds say it would be hit sometime before 10 days.  Even if we grant a 50% chance the FPV hit is ineffective (I think that's being generous to the mortar team), it means the mortar team could expect to be put out of action within 20 days max.  That's not sustainable.

It's a combo of mortars becoming too vulnerable while at the same time FPVs being able to provide similar or superior results.

Steve

[JonS]

17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Either way, I'm surprised that they would have to move the entire trailer unit back to the US for repairs.  This looks like the sort of thing that could be done inside of Ukraine.  If not, then someone in the Pentagon should be rethinking modularity requirements for future weapons systems.  The time and logistics to move this whole thing instead of a component and some engineers is a head scratcher to me.

US design for maintainability is generally pretty excellent. It makes for expensive procurement and high maintenance budgets (ie, swap the entire Abrams power pack rather than fix the fault lòcally) but it does that in order to increase availability rates at the pointy end.

Given that general approach, I'd be surprised if the Patriot was an exception. Given *that* I'd assume there is more internal damage that both can't be seen in a photo and can't be fixed in Ukraine.

Or, alternately, the priority to date has been on pushing end-user equipment into Ukraine, and not on the support systems that keep them operational and in users hands. Edit: So what would be a simple field repair for a US unit has to go back to the States when its operated by Ukraine.

But weighing against that second conclusion is the existence of USAREUR; if it was conceivably fixable forward at Grafenwohr or Kaiserlauten (or by any of the European operators of Patriot) then they would. That it wasn't suggests significant but non-obvious damage.

I think.

Edited April 22 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, JonS said:

US design for maintainability is generally pretty excellent. It makes for expensive procurement and high maintenance budgets (ie, swap the entire Abrams power pack rather than fix the fault lòcally) but it does that in order to increase availability rates at the pointy end.

Given that general approach, I'd be surprised if the Patriot was an exception. Given *that* I'd assume there is more internal damage that both can't be seen in a photo of the hull and can't be fixed in Ukraine.

Or, alternately, the priority to date has been on pushing end-user equipment into Ukraine, and not on the support systems that keep them operational and in users hands.

But weighing against that second conclusion is the existence of USAREUR; if it was conceivably fixable forward at Grafenwohr or Kaiserlauten then they would. That it wasn't suggests significant non-obvious damage.

I think.

I had similar thoughts, but I kept thinking... even if there was more extensive damage that we can't see, what would that be?  Steel frame?  Hydraulics?  This is a trailer, there's not much to it that I can't see getting fixed either in Ukraine or, as you suggest, Germany.  But it was flow back to the CONUS by one of Ukraine's precious cargo planes (which I presume are based outside of Ukraine).  So I'm scratching my head.

Steve

[JonS]

Yeah, obviously I dunno either. Knackered wiring loom, maybe? Heat-damaged chassis member?

Edited April 22 by JonS

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, JonS said:

Yeah, obviously I dunno. Wiring loom, maybe? Melted chassis member?

they didn't have a receipt so had to make a direct visit to the store.... too bad they didn't order through Amazon 

[Vet 0369]

On 4/15/2024 at 11:46 AM, Beleg85 said:

Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:

This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.

Do we actually have any confirmation from a Ukrainian source that this a real thing and not just Russian propaganda for their own internal consumption?

[MikeyD]

When we talk about X weapon vs drone lets remember that X weapon would likely be immune to ECM. You can't jam a sniper, jam a mg, or jam a mortar round. Artillery? Well, as long as they're not using radar proximity fuses you can't jam an incoming artillery round, either. Drones may be the most cost-effective option, up until someone flips a switch and they fall out of the sky.

[Sgt Joch]

6 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Oh, wow! I guess I’m really out of touch with the power sources of the drones. I had the impression that they were primarily electric propulsion. That would be an extremely weak heat source for the infrared tracker of a sidewinder.

Yes, Aim-9 works, although I also read the Aim-120 has an easier job of tracking drones.

This is from 2008, most likely a heat seeking AAM:

 

Edited April 22 by Sgt Joch

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

When we talk about X weapon vs drone lets remember that X weapon would likely be immune to ECM. You can't jam a sniper, jam a mg, or jam a mortar round. Artillery? Well, as long as they're not using radar proximity fuses you can't jam an incoming artillery round, either. Drones may be the most cost-effective option, up until someone flips a switch and they fall out of the sky.

But full autonomy reduces the ability to jam them by 95% or better. Even now both sides know that jamming is their only hope, they are putting out enough microwave radiation to fry every egg within 10 kilometers of the front. There is still a great deal of video of stuff blowing up from a drone hit, filmed by a drone. And as The_Capt never tires of reminding us, every one of those jammers is radiating an enormous neon sign that says please kill me first. Drones that will home on jam have to be showing up any week now, if they haven't already.

Edited April 22 by dan/california

[Vet 0369]

On 4/16/2024 at 10:27 AM, The_Capt said:

If one cannot hide a fortified position then wire is probably not doing much for defenders in the first place.  Enemy can hammer the position until wire is gone because he can see it from space.  We have seen dug in defence in this war and it got severely pounded.  Dispersion and mobile defence may be a better way to go.

The other reason may be that most infantry killing is happening at distance.  We have seen some trench clearing but a lot of the engagements are happening well out with infantry running away.  I am sure dismounted infiltration is still happening but if they can see all the wire, all that effort won't do much.

Wire can be tossed out but building an effective obstacle with it is labor intensive and takes a lot of time.  My guess is that most troops are either not trained to do it, or have decided it is a waste of time.

Actually, I’ve always considered wire, like mines, to be more of a deterrent to guide or force an attacker into areas or avenues to be used as kill zones for my M60s and M2 60mm mortars.

[Vet 0369]

On 4/16/2024 at 1:39 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  I even bet the section on latrine building will need revision.

Steve

You bet! In today’s cultural environment, they would be considered toxic waste sites. In fact, when I was in Norway 48 years ago, our latrines were frames with large plastic bags that had to be collected and disposed of (God bless those dahlin Combat Engineers that had to collect and dispose of the bags). If you were caught peeing on the ground, it was a pretty hefty fine!

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Actually, I’ve always considered wire, like mines, to be more of a deterrent to guide or force an attacker into areas or avenues to be used as kill zones for my M60s and M2 60mm mortars.

I think this has always been a bit of a Cold War pipe dream.  The enemy is not stupid and will breach wire before obligingly follow it into an obvious KZ.  The minutes it takes to breach are gold in suppression and a breaching lane is itself a canalization - albeit one of the enemies choosing.

In reality even under Soviet Cold War doctrine the layers of recon would spot and map out all those obstacles well ahead of main bodies.  And then a steel sky of artillery would drop on the entire grid square.  I am not sure static defence would have ever worked back then, or at least not as well as we had hoped.  Unless we could strip off the recce assets and suppress all those guns of course.

In this war it is clear that a KZ is a mobile thing.  One can swing guns and UAS rapidly and in essence project a KZ pretty much anywhere on the battlefield - within certain ranges of course.  In the future we are likely going to have flying and crawling KZs that can deny large swaths of ground.  Regardless, minefield still work for vehicles we have seen plenty proof of this.  Wire is strangely absent so there has to be a reason why it no longer appears to be worth the resources and effort.

[sross112]

The vast majority of attacks appear to be vehicle borne from all the videos we see, so the old school long strings of wire really wouldn't do much at all. The only places I could see it being useful would be hasty entanglements in contested locations. Inside buildings, tree lines, etc that will either considerably slow an assault or push the assaulting elements out of cover. And maybe filling defilades near defensive positions with entanglements would be useful as well.

I remember seeing some videos from defensive positions that were well established prior to the invasion in 2022, but I don't recall seeing any wire obstacles there either. Maybe the armored vehicle centric type of combat made it to where there was little to no value in creating belts of wire even before? Does anyone remember seeing it used in the Donbas positions?

[chrisl]

15 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Traditional laws of logistics do not apply to America! But yes, modularity would be good in general, unless it makes the whole system 10x more expensive.

As an aside, it’s gonna be interesting if we adopt suborbital rockets as rapid logistics; one wonders how the weapons systems will have to be adapted to handle Musk’s rather interesting landing profile.

Probably gentler than getting shoved out of an airplane on a pallet with 2-3 parachutes.  Or bounced for 50 miles in the back of a truck on a washboard road.  Launch vehicles are high vibration environments, but I suspect combat transport environments aren't that different, if not worse

 

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Do we actually have any confirmation from a Ukrainian source that this a real thing and not just Russian propaganda for their own internal consumption?

Yes, I posted here feedback of Ukr serviceman, who told bikers are enough hard target due to their speed and maneuver capabilities. Even FPV operator should have excellent skill to hit them. Luckily despite numerous episodes, this not mass phenomenon

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile frontline situation still hard.

On Vuhledar direction Russians seized western part of completely destroyed Novomykhailivka village

On Avdiivka sector after UKR successfull conter-attack 2-3 days ago, allowed to recapture lost positions in eastern part ot the Ocheretyne town, yesterday unnamed UKR unit in front of the face of next Russian attack along railways just abandoned positions and Russians again seized part of Ocheretyne, but in this time in south-eastern part. UKR command was forced to throw in the battle elements of 47th mech.brigade, which was partially moved to second line for short rest. 

Russians have choosen Ocheretyne as priority objective now and use here the same tactic like in Chasiv Yar. Unlike Wagner during the battles for Soledar and Bakhmut with a tactic of multiple small group attacks, with continous changing of these attack directions, Russians now use strong flanks pressure - this doesn't lead to decisive results without concentration of forces on one direction, but in conditions of personnel and aartillery support lack of UKR forces, this method hampers our reserve manuevers. 

Russians after short rest have thrown in the battle units of 41st CAA on the section Novokalynove - Ocheretyne - Berdychi.  This did for consolidation of battle orders and widening of offensive line in area where 30th motror-rifle brigade of 2nd CAA operates on Ocheretyne and create a narrow salient, which can be in theory attacked by UKR forces from north and south. To avoid this 35th motor-rifle brigade of 41st CAA now entered in offensive line of 2nd CAA from the north in Novokalynove area and 74th motor-rifle brigade in Berdychi area on the south  

Around Chasiv Yar Russians desperately try to breakthrough toward two sections of canal, where it flows under the ground, so there are two section about in 1 km wide each, where they can cross the canal and outflank the town from north and south. Soldiers report from there Russians gathered there many "meat", likely their command has an order to seize Chasiv Yar on 9th of May. 

Edited April 22 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, Offshoot said:

Don't forget the Bohdana - Ukraine’s Bohdana howitzer is rolling off production lines – here’s what it can do

It sounds like it is not without problems, but if Ukraine can produce enough the numbers and self-sufficiency might help.

Bohdana, alas too far from Caesar level yet. So, now Bohdanas go to artillery units of mech.brigades, when Caesars, PzH2000, Archers - to artillery brigades.

[Haiduk]

Russian attacks activity on different directions for a week.

Kupiansk after Free-Russia units remains calm (6 attacks).

Lyman-Terny is activating again (64 attacks)

Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar directions consistently high activity

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Bohdana, alas too far from Caesar level yet. So, now Bohdanas go to artillery units of mech.brigades, when Caesars, PzH2000, Archers - to artillery brigades.

I heard France promised to supply 74 Caesar in 2024.

If they can keep that promise, it is a good addition to the Ukrainian arsenal. 

[Haiduk]

Ukraine has ordered 10 000 Turkish Hatsan BTS-12 hunter semi-automatic rifles shooting with buckshot for anti-drone purpose. 4000 already deliverd to Ukriane. Reportedly rifle passed tests and was accepted. 

 

[Haiduk]

Russian MoD rises money award for enlisting motivation to space levels. 

Soldier from Robotyne direction writes:

We take a captive. He says they get 700 000 rubles of additional payment for first coming to assault. They usually don't come back from these assaults, but who thinks about this...

So, any Russian, who enlists got a money for contract signing - from 650 000 to 1100000 depending of region (initially was 500 000 in all regions). This is 6900 - 17000 $. Than he gest monthly 250000 (initially was 200000) - 2600 $. And at last for first assault (I don't know how much shared this practice) he gets 700 000 - 7500 $

This is unprecedented money for most Russians, especally from outbacks. 

Edited April 22 by Haiduk