How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

New toys arrived. I wonder what the launcher looks like. 

 

[Holien]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So now an industrial complex that has been focused on big, expensive and few, has to design counters for small, many and cheap - this outta be just great

Yep, the RN with it's two new white elephants have arrived just in time.

Mind you easier to defend them when they are sat in dry dock being repaired as they can't even be trusted to sail to Norway.

 

[danfrodo]

Well, some good news amidst the wide belief that 2024 will be a stalemate overall.  Let's see, RU oil/gas infrastructure being pounded.  Loss of another naval ship.  Adiivka in trouble but RU losses very high it seems.  The oil infrastructure attacks seem particularly promising.  Russians don't care about other russians (or particularly fellow citizen non-russians) dying and suffering, but they sure don't like to suffer themselves.  Like long lines for gas or rapidly rising prices.  And Putin needs that oil money.

A good reason to not start wars -- civilian infrastructure is super vulnerable.  

There's plenty of trouble signs and problems for UKR, but good to see some positive developments here today.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, hcrof said:

All good points, I also wonder whether going straight at the ship leaves a wake which is easy to see in the dark. By manoeuvring erratically the wake will be obscured by waves and so the drone will be hard to spot, even with image intensifiers. 

I'm sure that is part of it.  It's also seems to be a good way to distract the counter measures.  Drone 1 closes distance and attracts attention of the counter systems, then makes erratic maneuvers that maintains distance while Drone 2 approaches.  Fire shifts to Drone 2 so it starts doing erratic maneuvers while Drone 1 returns to closing distance.  Drone 3 and 4 and whatever else keep up the work from the other side in similar fashion. (we definitely saw both sides of the ship being attacked)

The result is that multiple drones are able to close distance with each one having a greater chance of success.  Then, when they are within final striking distance, they can focus on the same section that was struck by previous drones.

It seems the Ukrainians learned that the best way to be assured a ship sinks is to hit the same section of hull multiple times as opposed to each drone trying to hit whichever section seems easiest to smash into.  The one drone at a time tactic provides more opportunity for focusing on wherever the first successful hit landed.

Steve

[kimbosbread]

I wonder how hard it would be to rig up an ersatz dual-stage storm shadow style warhead on these boats vs just going deerka deerka (I say this with zero insight into what type of warhead they have).

I bet the next evolution will be to go semi-submersible for the final stage,with a little snorkel, and maybe slow speed for minimum wake.

[Bearstronaut]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This war is highlighting something that should not be a surprise - a serious challenge to the western way of war.  We went the way of ever more complex (and expensive) platforms, and this was in all domains.  We ended up with fewer, larger and very high expense density capabilities that were capable of over-match and deterrence.

Problem is that everyone else saw this and started working on offsets - swarms, unmanned etc.  All cheap and mass producible.  So now an industrial complex that has been focused on big, expensive and few, has to design counters for small, many and cheap - this outta be just great.

I'm not saying you're wrong about this and I know everybody is wary of the "Russia sux" excuse but the Russians have never been renowned for naval prowess. The US and Royal Navies have been engaging Houthi drones in the Red Sea for months now and have taken zero hits.

[Tux]

As well as pairing up, convoying, etc. I wonder whether we might start to see deployable torpedo net-type structures being retrofitted to slower/more vulnerable BSF vessels.  These drone attacks look like they would struggle to cause much damage if a chain-link net that extends 2m above/below the waters surface could be extended to surround the target’s hull (say 10m out) during an attack.

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

I'm not saying you're wrong about this and I know everybody is wary of the "Russia sux" excuse but the Russians have never been renowned for naval prowess. The US and Royal Navies have been engaging Houthi drones in the Red Sea for months now and have taken zero hits.

Do we know if the Houthis are using surface unmanned systems?  It looks like they are mustering a lot of UAS (well 18, - nation state can add a zero to that number). 

https://apnews.com/article/yemen-houthi-rebels-red-sea-attacks-israel-f820b848eb76fa3ecc8056ca332cabae

Ukraine is taking this to the next level with long range USVs.  Going to be a matter of time until someone fields a UUV capable of popping up and staging one of these attacks.  In fact the impetus is there to pursue the tech.

The Houthis are in fact a really good demonstration of the central point.  25 years ago these rebels would have barely merited a security briefing footnote.  Now with long range UAS we need to send a NTG to deal with them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/01/20/us-military-yemen-houthis/

My sense is that UAS are deadly in close to shore or port, but further out are easier to detect because...ocean.

USVs are emerging and are harder to detect due to ocean clutter, and are starting to hurt the Russian Navy.  UUVs are a potential nightmare.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/05/innovative-submarine-drone-is-ukraines-new-weapon-against-russian-navy/

[sburke]

Is it too late to play Black Sea Fleet bingo?

[sburke]

Moscow Exchange Abruptly Halts Trading as Technical Issues Surge in Russia (newsweek.com)

Trading on Russia's stock exchange was abruptly halted on Tuesday due to technical issues, authorities said.

The Moscow Exchange, the largest exchange group in Russia, was halted at 1:58 p.m. Moscow time (5:58 a.m. ET). The platform said that trading on the stock market would resume at 3:45 p.m. Moscow time. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

Part of the issue is that Russia has relied on Western microchips to power items such as laptops and smartphones. However, sanctions imposed on the country following Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have meant the Kremlin has faced obstacles in procuring foreign-made chips and is now attempting to ramp up domestic production.

The Moscow Exchange said the issue was caused by a hardware error on the main server. "According to the exchange's procedures, in case of such an error occurring, a switch to the backup server is carried out, which takes a little over an hour," it said in a statement.

The Moscow Exchange previously halted trading for four hours on September 13, 2023. Earlier, in 2015, the trading platform experienced 11 simultaneous failures caused by technical issues.

Independent Russian news outlet The Moscow Times reported on Tuesday that technical issues surged in Russia last year, driven by Western sanctions imposed in response to President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.

Mikhail Sizov is managing partner of Mobius Technologies, a Russian technology consulting firm. He told local publication Kommersant that demand from Russian companies for the repair of hard drives, tape drives, controllers, motherboards and other components of foreign computer equipment increased fivefold in 2023, compared to the previous year.

"Last year, 80 percent of our requests for repairs occurred in the second half of the year. We plan to develop this area by expanding the list of components that we can restore," Sizov told the outlet. He added that he believed this surge was linked to "sanctions pressure and problems in the logistics of equipment supplies."

Sizov said there is a lack of spare parts in the Russian market, and many crucial components are sold at an inflated price.

In September 2023, Kommersant published a government document that said Russia won't be able to ditch critical Western technology any time soon, despite the fact that Russian officials are asking that the use of microchips from the West be phased out by 2035.

Kommersant said it would cost at least 400 to 500 billion rubles ($4.4 billion to $5.5 billion) to expand the production of microchips in the country at a volume that will compensate for the industry's current shortage.

[FancyCat]

What do we know about these Ukrainian naval drones? I mean sure, Ukraine is a plunky underdog, but no way under technological, and on that note, some of it has been previously U.S/U.K given drones no?

That said, something to be said about Russian inability to close off Odesa. I mean sure, shrug off one ship down, 2 down, but combine 3 down with Ukraine touting that Black Sea trade is near pre-war levels and one instead of applauding Russian generosity in allowing trade, must ask if Russia despite supposedly being advanced, cannot even strike a container ship hugging the coastline while Ukraine strikes it's warships hugging Crimea. (All Russia needs to do is strike one and civilian shipping will be scared off again)

As always, reality and perception are vital and influence one another. Russia, in forcing these costly advances in Adiivka, understands this all too well, in pursuing Western cutoff of aid, and so their inability to cut off the Black Sea trade likely is less generosity and more lack of ability.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

What do we know about these Ukrainian naval drones? I mean sure, Ukraine is a plunky underdog, but no way under technological, and on that note, some of it has been previously U.S/U.K given drones no?

That said, something to be said about Russian inability to close off Odesa. I mean sure, shrug off one ship down, 2 down, but combine 3 down with Ukraine touting that Black Sea trade is near pre-war levels and one instead of applauding Russian generosity in allowing trade, must ask if Russia despite supposedly being advanced, cannot even strike a container ship hugging the coastline while Ukraine strikes it's warships hugging Crimea. (All Russia needs to do is strike one and civilian shipping will be scared off again)

As always, reality and perception are vital and influence one another. Russia, in forcing these costly advances in Adiivka, understands this all too well, in pursuing Western cutoff of aid, and so their inability to cut off the Black Sea trade likely is less generosity and more lack of ability.

We discussed this before and the logical conclusion is that Russia isn't targeting shipping because it has potentially more to lose than gain by such attacks.  This was a theory I pushed early in the war and it seems to be holding up so far.

Not that any of this explains how incompetent the BSF is.  Russia is unable to project and maintain power in its own bathtub.

Steve

[Grigb]

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence.

Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov

What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns

It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all.

What else does it have? Well, guys like this.

This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it).

Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants.

What does this fellow have?

Two DS30B rapid fire cannon

Two Phalanx CIWS

By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target

Two .50 Cals

It is already impressive but here is more. 

T45 usually have at least one helicopter

The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. 

When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops.

Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs

This is how LMM works (different mount)

The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activity. Now RU chickens come home to roost.

Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Regarding fires at RU fuel plants. Below is Milov explanation (from the interview)

• The production of RU fuel began to drop. It has already fallen by 4%, with Lukoil production fallen by 8%. It is a significant drop because the RU fuel market is quite delicate.
• There are two factors here: UKR strikes and a rise in equipment failure due to unknown [to Milov] causes, but most likely due to poor maintenance and repair as a result of sanctions [sanctions work but more slowly than expected]. All of the equipment used to produce high-quality gasoline is Western.
• The RU has just about two dozen fuel plants. Thus, critical disruption of RU fuel production is possible. It is possible to achieve this by damaging or destroying two types of infrastructure. First, facilities for catalytic cracking which is essential for high-quality gasoline production (Kstovo plant strike). CC facility can be easily targeted, and RU has few of them (and they are all western, so there is no quick replacement or manufacturer assistance).  As result at the moment Lukoil is unable to repair the damaged CC facility in the Kstovo plant. The second type is the Primary Oil Refinery facility (Krasnodar plant strike). The damage to the POR facility interrupts the entire oil production process, but replacements are simpler to find.
• It's worth noting that only five main fuel plants supply the European part of RU. Other plants are either smaller, older (cannot produce high-quality fuel), or too far away.
• So, the present UKR campaign of oil plant strikes is smart and sensible. It is already causing problems for RU. The average price has already increased by 30-50 kopeeks [RU cents] per liter. 

 

• The Russian government is going to apply significant pressure on oil companies to keep prices from increasing (which may succeed in the near run). However, the RU gasoline market is in a fragile state right now, and if the UKR campaign continues, it will cause major issues.
   

Thanks for that report.

There's likely another factor which wasn't mentioned and that is the pre-war reliance upon Western oil/gas subcontractors to address specific needs.  Very early in the sanctions period it was pointed out that Western companies did quite a bit of Russia's exploration and exploitation activities.  The massive Exxon deal that was cancelled, in fact, was specifically about this:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/exxon-exits-russia-after-putin-expropriates-sakhalin-1-project/

As we discussed, and predicted, Russia seizing assets of Western companies didn't come with institutional know how or the support systems that made them viable.  Over time the physical stuff they secured will break or fall into disuse.

I know it takes a frustratingly long time for this to happen, but it clearly is happening.  Russia will not survive this war even if Ukraine surrendered 5 minutes after I post this message.

Steve

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

I'm not saying you're wrong about this and I know everybody is wary of the "Russia sux" excuse but the Russians have never been renowned for naval prowess. The US and Royal Navies have been engaging Houthi drones in the Red Sea for months now and have taken zero hits.

Air drones. Have there been sea drone attacks also? 

I'm still waiting for the UKR to put air drones on their sea drones, use them to hit the ship bridge on the approach and really up the odds of a successful strike. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence.

Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov

What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns

It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all.

What else does it have? Well, guys like this.

This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it).

Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants.

What does this fellow have?

Two DS30B rapid fire cannon

Two Phalanx CIWS

By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target

Two .50 Cals

It is already impressive but here is more. 

T45 usually have at least one helicopter

The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. 

When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops.

Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs

This is how LMM works (different mount)

The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activity. Now RU chickens come home to roost.

Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle. 

The lack of even convoying is baffling, from a logic POV, but entirely in form for previous Russian behavior (Eg large ammo dumps galore even a month after HIMARS Happy Time began). 

I certainly agree, the USN, RN and to a much lesser degree RAN and others have been developing TTP for counter swarm/small boat attacks.

The USS Cole attack really got attention and that was 24 years ago. Iranian shenanigans in the Gulf have kept the subject relevant.If the Houthis do try USV attacks (unlikely) @ then we'll see what the Westerns have built in.

I suspect they're watching the BSF **** everything up and thinking what I'm thinking - this could easily be avoided or mitigated by very simple expedients with existing tech and tactics. More modern tech plus simple additions like NVG for sailors on watch, more CIWS using even just HMGs, better watch alertness to the potential threat, and extra search lights and most importantly, training training training would make the attackers job harder and harder. 

Previous Ivan behaviour is to delay reacting,  finally learn something and half *** the implementation. Eventually they get quite good at it. This is fine (sorta) with land forces, with hundreds of vehicles to burn through as you extricate your head from rectum, but the BSF is big, heavy and limited in numbers.

How long until it is combat ineffective as a force? It's core heavy ships are still dangerous AF but seem very cautious and leery of committing to sea dominance. 

Will they be able to field their own UAVs? They've done couple of small attacks but nothing since and there are no hot, heavy UKR ships to attack. 

@sburkeI think there's two bingo cards - BSF vessels that are still afloat, and then  the diverse possible weapons and tactics UKR could use. 

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2Fi-have-to-say-my-bingo-cards-looking-good-v0-v3xri6tps0ob1.png%3Fauto%3Dwebp%26s%3D9f62daf73fcd3b32769bec9a58c9df6e6c13614e

UKR certainly has a taste for large military transport vessels...

Ivanovets is listed in that graphic above but id be surprised she could withstand this kind of double tap... 

Edited February 14 by Kinophile

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence.

Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov

What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns

It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all.

What else does it have? Well, guys like this.

This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it).

Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants.

What does this fellow have?

Two DS30B rapid fire cannon

Two Phalanx CIWS

By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target

Two .50 Cals

It is already impressive but here is more. 

T45 usually have at least one helicopter

The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. 

When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops.

Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs

This is how LMM works (different mount)

The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activity. Now RU chickens come home to roost.

Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle. 

This all true, but the USVs we have seen in action have all been cobbled together bits of civilian tech put together with limited resources. The extremely obvious thing we haven't seen yet is these USV's being equipped nice modern torpedoes. When that happens their lethality ill increase by at least an order of magnitude. Throw in that nifty Swedish system that lets a use liquid oxygen to extend the range of underwater operations, and you are talking about something truly nasty.

The_Capt is also quite correct that we haven't seen UAVs employed at see in real numbers.

Edit: And once the the USVs are capable of coming in underwater, even for a kilometer or two, they will be capable detonating directing under the keel, ships don't like that.

Edited February 14 by dan/california

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

We discussed this before and the logical conclusion is that Russia isn't targeting shipping because it has potentially more to lose than gain by such attacks.  This was a theory I pushed early in the war and it seems to be holding up so far.

Not that any of this explains how incompetent the BSF is.  Russia is unable to project and maintain power in its own bathtub.

Steve

Sure, tho these oil refinery attacks....

[Battlefront.com]

40 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Sure, tho these oil refinery attacks....

If the ships were Ukrainian flagged, they'd be on the bottom of the Black Sea by now.  But they aren't.  Some are in fact flagged to countries sympathetic to Russia.  Sinking one of those isn't in Russia's best interests.

Russia tried to get around this by first threatening to sink ships and getting its "inspection regime".  Russia completely miscalculated when it refused to continue it, thinking that would kill all grain exports.  That didn't happen so Russia then tried to destroy all of Ukraine's export infrastructure.  That didn't work either.  So really, the only play it has is to blatantly sink civilian ships owned, operated, and flagged to non-combatant nations.  Not surprising they aren't going that route.

Steve

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Carolus said:

New toys arrived. I wonder what the launcher looks like. 

These two Grads were destroyed by GLSDB strike too. Huge BOOM. Location near Zhytlivka village, Luhansk oblast, Svatove direction.

Chevrone with the rhino belongs to 4th tank brigade, though it old, now they have other. Likely their UAV targeted Grads for missile strike.

GLDSB parts from Tendar's tweet were found after teh strike on furniture factory in Kreminna, were Russian had a repair workshop for vehicles. 

https://twitter.com/sgorlovki/status/1757773363336847392

Edited February 14 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

These two Grads were destroyed by GLSDB strike too. Huge BOOM. Location near Zhytlivka village, Luhansk oblast, Svatove direction.

GLDSB parts from Tendar's tweet were found after teh strike on furniture factory in Kreminna, were Russian had a repair workshop for vehicles. 

https://twitter.com/sgorlovki/status/1757773363336847392

Just the overpressure from a blast that size would be lethal for the better part of a hundred meters wouldn't it?

[Hapless]

[Edit: Ok, I missed that this popped up earlier in thread. But hey, looks like that video got deleted so at least there's a link again.]

Back to the Tactical problem- this is apparently from a foreign volunteer unit, so plenty of English being spoken. Clearing trenches, kamikaze drones, and at 7:50 some absolute mind-boggling insanity.

Seriously, that's the craziest thing I think I've seen so far.

Edited February 14 by Hapless

[Haiduk]

Next high-ranked Russian officer has found own death near Krynky.

"Bukhanka" with commander of 77th naval infantry brigade was hit with FPV drone on 13th of Feb. Colonel Magomedali Magomedzhanov has died in hospital on next day. Recently he was a commander of 61st naval infantry brigade on Northern Fleet, when 177th separate naval infantry regiment was expanded to 77th naval infantry brigade of Kaspian sea, he was appointed there. 

In Krynky UKR troops expanded own zone of control on SW.

Edited February 14 by Haiduk

[A Canadian Cat]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Is it too late to play Black Sea Fleet bingo?

We better start soon. A few more ships and there will no longer be enough to create a full bingo card.

[Haiduk]

A girl, Bradley commander of 47th mech.briagde issiued a video how her crew works near Avdiivka. Rare episode, how look TOW launches through the thermal sight. 

 

Edited February 14 by Haiduk