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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I bring up friction issues (bureaucracy, legalities, monetary realities) that restrained him before but they are gone now for some reason.

My understanding is that a lot of the friction last time (and, obvs, every administration) as due to people who were in political appointments. Head of this, director of that, secretary of the other. Career professionals who understand their agency, and why things are the way they are, and are guided by the long run agency mission and purpose rather than the whim of the moment.

Apprently the president gets to make those appointments, so Turnip can - and presumably next time would - stack those friction appointments with loyal grease bags instead competent professionals.

That, a more ... um, pliant Supreme Court, and a GOP controlled upper and/or lower house unable to muster any pushback, could see some very "efficient" changes in policy and direction.

Edited by JonS
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31 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am a centralist Canadian, which puts me slightly left of Karl Marx in US political spectrum.

😆 It's funny because it's true

Anyway, I've been away from this thread for a while, so I'm not sure when we got the greenlight to discuss something as sensitive as US politics (I suppose US politics are directly relevant to the war, since so much depends on continued US support). But my view on the consequences of a second Trump administration are that it would be more of what happened the first time around. Which is to say that it probably would not lead to a sudden and immediate collapse of US democracy. US institutions would probably emerge largely intact. We're probably just looking at further degradation, not outright destruction, of US democracy. Norms around acceptable political behavior would be further eroded. More dangerous precedents would be set. The Republican Party would be further radicalized. US political discourse would be further radicalized.

Taken far enough this sort of thing can weaken a democracy to the point that is ceases to function. Democracies can and do collapse, and it would be arrogant for us to assume that the US is somehow immune. But how likely things are to go that far in this case is hard to say. My guess is that it's unlikely to go that far in this case, but it's a real concern and something to be on guard against. The main thing is that it would be frustrating. I doubt any of the damage would be irreparable. But it would still be further damage at a time when we are still trying to recover from the damage of the first administration (damage to norms and discourse, not so much direct damage to institutions).

All that said, I don't think a second Trump administration is even legally possible. After the January 6th insurrection I don't think he's even eligible to hold office. So I think it's a moot point. If he is allowed to hold office at all, that would be setting a dangerous precedent for how the constitution is interpreted. So far it looks like most, though not all, states are allowing him to be on the ballot. But we'll see how that pans out.

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10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

No but I am about to go look...You are teling me there is a translation available?

 

I haven't seen any translations. But I assumed the article was translated since it gained some recognition in RU (mostly thanks to the author openly admitting the inferiority of RU weapons). If you have not seen it, I can translate it. 

The article is not a big deal, but it does provide interesting insight into contemporary RU top brass thinking.

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39 minutes ago, JonS said:

My understanding is that a lot of the friction last time (and, obvs, every administration) as due to people who were in political appointments. Head of this, director of that, secretary of the other. Career professionals who understand their agency, and why things are the way they are, and are guided by the long run agency mission and purpose rather than the whim of the moment.

Apprently the president gets to make those appointments, so Turnip can - and presumably next time would - stack those friction appointments with loyal grease bags instead competent professionals.

That, a more ... um, pliant Supreme Court, and an GOP controlled upper and/or lower house unable to muster any pushback, could see some very "efficient" changes in policy and direction.

I am no expert on US government but ours is not that different.  So one can appoint whatever headman one wants to be in charge of departments etc.  But each of those monoliths has long serving government employees who are not robots (even if they look like ones).  We have seen this before as some big mover comes in and then enjoys the slow-rolling resistance that will outlast them.  So unless he plans on firing great swaths of civil servants - and that is one big union to take on, I do not see him cutting through all that any easier than he did last time.

Further, if he inserts cronies and "deal masters" into those jobs who do not understand the individual cultures they are going to get mauled.  Hell we can't get good things done, let alone whatever crazy he has planned. Supreme Court...to a point but they need the law to exist and cannot simply start tearing up stuff like the Constitution.  As we saw last time the lower courts created a lot of friction.

As to the other houses.  Well, again, what are the odds he can take all three?  I am honestly asking.  If he can then, well as unappetizing as it is, does that not reflect the will of the American people?  Even if we disagree with it?

Regardless, that is a lot of green lights to line up in "normal" times. 

Edited by The_Capt
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29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am no expert on US government but ours is not that different.  So one can appoint whatever headman one wants to be in charge of departments etc.  But each of those monoliths has long serving government employees who are not robots (even if they look like ones).  We have seen this before as some big mover comes in and then enjoys the slow-rolling resistance that will outlast them.  So unless he plans on firing great swaths of civil servants - and that is one big union to take on, I do not see him cutting through all that any easier than he did last time.

Further, if he inserts cronies and "deal masters" into those jobs who do not understand the individual cultures they are going to get mauled.  Hell we can't get good things done, let alone whatever crazy he has planned. Supreme Court...to a point but they need the law to exist and cannot simply start tearing up stuff like the Constitution.  As we saw last time the lower courts created a lot of friction.

As to the other houses.  Well, again, what are the odds he can take all three?  I am honestly asking.  If he can then, well as unappetizing as it is, does that not reflect the will of the American people?  Even if we disagree with it?

Regardless, that is a lot of green lights to line up in "normal" times. 

Guess what…Trump plans on firing swathes of Federal Employees: 

https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2022/07/trump-reelected-aides-plan-purge-civil-service/374842/

What would happen in that case is that Federal employees would and could sue both Trump and any agency head personally who carried out the order. Who would ignore the order. Agency employees would be getting locked out of offices. Protests. Violent reaction. Etc. 

 

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24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As to the other houses.  Well, again, what are the odds he can take all three?  I am honestly asking.  If he can then, well as unappetizing as it is, does that not reflect the will of the American people?  Even if we disagree with it?

Regardless, that is a lot of green lights to line up in "normal" times. 

other than the 2016 election, Trump has been a drag for the GOP.  As much as I think the guy has actually become even worse in terms of becoming openly fascist (well more openly fascist), his track record for elections doesn't bode well for the GOP.  Add to that the GOP now has that car tire they caught in banning abortion, so I am not really freaking out about the odds of the GOP taking the White House and both houses of Congress.  If he does win he can still make a lot of lives miserable, but the guy doesn't actually understand how to get anything done in gov't nor does he really care.  His primary goal is going to simply be to try to make sure he doesn't go to jail.

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1 hour ago, dan/california said:

No but I am about to go look...You are teling me there is a translation availble?

Machine translation of a summary:
 

Quote

SVO and the revolution in military affairs
New weapons change the nature of combat operations and force tactics textbooks to be rewritten

The special military operation, which began in February 2022, has definitely gone beyond the scope of a limited armed conflict in terms of the scale of forces and means involved by the parties, the intensity of hostilities and the level of technology used. Moreover, experts are confident: the SVO marks a major milestone in the development of military affairs and will launch a real revolution in the field of weapons, tactics, operational art and strategy.

The Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) was one of the first to undertake the difficult work of analyzing military events taking place in the Northern Military District zone, as well as identifying new trends in the field of armed struggle. He prepared a collection of military scientific articles, “Algorithms of Fire and Steel,” dedicated to our special operation and military conflicts of recent years. The foreword to this analytical work was written by the former Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (2004–2008), Army General Yuri Baluevsky. "Army Standard" introduces its readers to the conclusions of the famous military leader.

Genre crisis

The North Military District, the former Chief of the General Staff believes, has become an unprecedented test of literally all components of military affairs and military development - from tactics, operational art and strategy, the organizational structure of troops to combat testing of almost all non-strategic types and types of weapons and military equipment. All this experience has yet to be comprehended by military scientists. But it is already clear that the SVO has shown the inconsistency of many forecasts for the development of military affairs and required a reassessment of the role and place of different types of weapons. In the development of combat operations, the combat use of forces and means, it is important to see the right trends, to grasp the patterns, without which it is impossible to overcome the crisis and positional impasse of the so-called “transparent battlefield.”

So, what “wonderful discoveries” did the Northern Military District reveal to the world in military affairs? Firstly, modern highly mechanized armies, instead of highly maneuverable combat operations, suddenly switched to positional trench warfare, where the pace of advance on the battlefield looks snail's pace even by the standards of the First World War.

Artillery, primarily long-range and high-precision, has been returned to the pedestal of the god of war. Almost the determining factor in the battle and operation is the number of shells fired.

There is a renaissance in infantry combat, for which, after World War II, the armies of the leading countries of the world did not prepare either their soldiers or their officers.

Air defense achieved an unexpected triumph over military aviation, which not only lost the ability to operate en masse over enemy territory, but was also forced to fly and base cautiously over its own territory.

Finally, unmanned aircraft quickly and unconditionally conquered the airspace. The sky was filled with clouds of micro-devices - copters, FPV drones, hunting for almost every infantryman. The unmanned revolution provided unprecedented transparency of the battlefield and began to crowd out artillery.

Conclusion: a new face of war is emerging, which largely contradicts previous ideas. Its main features are high dispersion and low density of troops; sharply increased capabilities for reconnaissance and high-precision target destruction in real time.

As a result, the vulnerability of troop groups, including the level of tactical units and above, and even individual combat vehicles and soldiers on the battlefield, has significantly increased.

The vanished "fog of war"

What ensures unprecedented transparency of the battlefield? A huge number of constantly deployed reconnaissance and target designation equipment, primarily unmanned and satellite ones. But not only. There is a qualitative leap in the volume and speed of intelligence data received and transmitted using these means.

The abundance of unmanned reconnaissance systems makes it possible to organize almost continuous monitoring of the battlefield at all levels, right down to the individual fighter. The explosive expansion of commercial satellite reconnaissance and surveillance systems will in the coming years lead to the entire planet being entangled in colossal satellite surveillance networks with ubiquitous access.

Electronic reconnaissance tools, cyber reconnaissance methods, and tracking enemy information networks are rapidly developing.

According to Baluevsky, all this virtually completely eliminates the “fog of war”, and also dramatically speeds up the processes of issuing target designation and decision-making in the “shot-kill” connection.

Moreover, full transparency becomes a reality not only at the tactical level, but also at the operational and strategic levels. It becomes possible to deliver high-precision strikes to almost any depth, even strategic. Online target designation and hypersonic missiles make it possible to fight second echelons of troops and objects deep behind enemy lines. The arsenal of weapons has confidently included relatively small and inexpensive loitering munitions with a flight range of thousands of kilometers.

All these technological innovations are relegated to military archives as textbooks on the covert transfer, deployment, concentration and use of large groupings of troops. Any concentration becomes an immediate target of destruction. Compounding the problem is the enormous vulnerability of these groups' logistics forces.

It turns out that the impossibility of concentrating troops forces us to change the fundamentals of military affairs. For example, it forces combat operations to be carried out by small units and individual combat vehicles. And this requires a radical change in approaches to all aspects of combat, logistics and technical support, the organization of troops and forces, and the development of all weapons systems and military equipment.

The tank is the main victim

Tanks are among those weapon systems whose role on the battlefield changes radically and rapidly during the course of the military offensive. According to Baluevsky, the tank “became one of the main victims of the combat experience of the last two years.” The recent symbol of striking power and combat power has proven to be an easy to spot and easy to kill target. In addition, the tank turned out to be very vulnerable to mines.

In this regard, the former Chief of the General Staff asks a number of questions that, apparently, do not yet have answers. Can tanks be used massively? Do they have the required security? Do they have effective weapons for firing in line of sight conditions? And the main question: has the tank lost its importance as the main striking force, a means of breakthrough and maneuver, the basis of modern warfare?

Yuri Baluevsky outlined only directions in the search for answers to these painful questions. In his opinion, a promising tank will first need to demonstrate the retention of powerful direct fire on the battlefield compared to indirect fire weapons.

On the other hand, solutions await the problems of mine protection and overcoming minefields, as well as protection from loitering ammunition and FPV drones. One of the ways is to create a new generation of active protection complexes, possibly based on new physical principles.

Artillery horizons

Another hot topic is the role of field artillery. The main trend here is increasing the firing range and introducing precision-guided ammunition. According to Baluevsky, the evolution of artillery also changes the principles of counter-battery warfare. In it, unmanned reconnaissance and gunners are increasingly coming to the fore.

Modern reconnaissance and fire contours can dramatically reduce the time from target detection to its destruction, while simultaneously increasing the accuracy of artillery fire. In the future, Baluevsky concludes, a complete transition of artillery to high-precision ammunition is inevitable.

Another tactical innovation is the dispersed actions of gun crews. Single guns, rather than batteries and divisions, actually themselves acquire the character of high-precision weapons and can be used separately. This is what we are seeing during the fighting in Ukraine, notes Baluevsky.

According to him, Russian developers of artillery systems, unfortunately, remain in the role of catching up. There is a qualitative superiority of NATO artillery due to the transition to 155-mm guns with a 52-caliber barrel length, and in the future 58-60 calibers, and the development of 155-mm ultra-long-range shells. The ex-Chief of the General Staff summarizes: the Northern Military District has identified a significant lag in domestic artillery and missile systems and requires priority and radical rearmament of them in the coming years.

Aviation impasse

The eternal confrontation between air defense and military aviation showed an unexpected result during the Northern Military District. Intermediate result: the loss of relevance of such established forms of using combat aviation as an offensive air operation or massive air strikes.

The task of effectively suppressing enemy air defenses turned out to be practically impossible. But its decision predetermines the further course and outcome of the fight in the air, and not only that.

According to Baluevsky, the solution to the problem of countering enemy air defense forces and suppressing them must be systematic. Key elements are systems for reconnaissance, opening and detection of air defense systems; special means of anti-jamming and air defense radio suppression; fire weapons; special aviation jamming and radio jamming systems; decoys; airborne defense systems for combat aircraft; special combat aircraft for suppressing and destroying air defense systems.

“All these elements,” notes Baluevsky, “must be built into a complex of a unified control system and must undergo joint training and combat training in advance to implement the planned tasks.”

Unmanned bacchanalia

The rapid development of military unmanned equipment and methods of its use became a headache for air defense, which was not prepared to combat this “trifle.” Nevertheless, drones of various classes and purposes have become probably the main problem of air defense systems and the main challenge for any air defense system.

We have to admit that such an exaggerated role of drones, which they play today in armed struggle, was not predicted by military theorists. Although hints of a new trend were already visible in the second Karabakh war in 2020.

Baluevsky draws attention primarily to the radical change in the paradigm of the use of drones by both sides, from a focus on the use of large aircraft-type drones (MALE class), medium and short range, flight duration and size to the mass use of small commercial copters. Moreover, both for reconnaissance and surveillance, and as strike weapons, including FPV drones and loitering ammunition.

“This,” notes the former Chief of the General Staff, “led to an explosive expansion of their use, actually turning them into one of the main types of weapons in combat operations.”

FPV drones can destroy almost all types of military equipment on the front line, possessing a cost-effectiveness ratio that is unprecedented for any type of guided weapon.

The drones that revolutionized combat operations during the SVO were small loitering munitions, including the Russian Lancets. They are becoming a widespread, inexpensive, high-precision tactical weapon and one of the main means of counter-battery warfare.

It can be assumed, Baluevsky predicts, that the future development of “lancet-like” devices as flying artillery will lead to their partial transformation into small-sized tactical missiles. According to him, FPV drones and small loitering munitions will become more widespread, which in the shortest possible time will evolve up to the individual weapon of a fighter. “This means that in the coming years tens and hundreds of thousands of small unmanned aerial vehicles will be deployed on the battlefield,” sums up Baluevsky. “Accordingly, there will be a huge task of combating them, also starting from the level of lower units, crews and crews.”

In conclusion, the ex-Chief of the General Staff cited a well-known statement by the famous military theorist A.A. Svechin from his book “Strategy”, written in 1926: “In strategy, prophecy can only be charlatanism; and genius is unable to foresee how the war will actually unfold. But he must form a perspective in which he will evaluate the phenomena of war.” “To these words,” Baluevsky noted, “I would add: “Wars of the future.”

 

 

Edited by Vanir Ausf B
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

  If he can then, well as unappetizing as it is, does that not reflect the will of the American people?  Even if we disagree with it?

Hell, America disagreed with it last time, but that didn't help (see; popular vote)

Re: the appointments; yes, fair point, although AIUI there are /thousands/ of appointments that the president is entitled to make. As I recall, last time he was too busy golfing to fill most of them, and didn't really expect to win so didn't have a list ready to go. Slightly less laziness would fix both of those issues.

Edit: ~4,000 positions. That probably goes a bit deeper than just the figurehead at the top of each federal orgn

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_appointments_by_Donald_Trump

Edited by JonS
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

But each of those monoliths has long serving government employees who are not robots (even if they look like ones).  We have seen this before as some big mover comes in and then enjoys the slow-rolling resistance that will outlast them.  So unless he plans on firing great swaths of civil servants - and that is one big union to take on, I do not see him cutting through all that any easier than he did last time.

That is very much the plan:

Project 2025 - "Project 2025 is a plan to reshape the executive branch of the U.S. federal government in the event of a Republican victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Established in 2022, the project seeks to recruit tens of thousands of conservatives to Washington, D.C., to replace existing federal civil service workers it characterizes as the "deep state", to further the objectives of the next Republican president"

Steve Bannon calls for ‘4,000 shock troops’ to dismantle US government ‘brick by brick’

Whether they could pull it off would have to be seen. I recently saw Bannon talking again I think saying that the training of the first cadre of thousands was underway and they were going for more but I can't remember where now.

Edited by Offshoot
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4 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

That is very much the plan:

Project 2025 - "Project 2025 is a plan to reshape the executive branch of the U.S. federal government in the event of a Republican victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Established in 2022, the project seeks to recruit tens of thousands of conservatives to Washington, D.C., to replace existing federal civil service workers it characterizes as the "deep state", to further the objectives of the next Republican president"

Steve Bannon calls for ‘4,000 shock troops’ to dismantle US government ‘brick by brick’

Whether they could pull it off would have to be seen. I recently saw Bannon talking again I think saying that the training of the first cadre of thousands was underway and they were going for more but I can't remember where now.

Oh dear god that is a fiasco in the making.  4000?  The US federal government has nearly 3 million employees and if they are anything like we are right now are struggle to fill the positions they have.  Firing and finding 10k “loyal conservatives” is so unrealistic it beggars imagination.  I mean sure, go for it.  First off I am pretty sure the employment laws in the US will have something to say about it “I did t get hired because I wasn’t conservative enough?”  Then the unions will have something to say about it.  And the employees will damn sure have something to say about it.

All this is a recipe for getting exactly nothing done.  Chaos and paralysis but far right revolution, I don’t think so.  

Well I think this line of discussion has run its course.  We will just have to see how this all goes down in the end.  Good thing we are doing that nuclear weapons program up here…whoops, forget I said that.

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52 minutes ago, JonS said:

Which would probably suit Putin juuuust fine.

Pulling this whole thing back to this war, I think what a Trump win might do is result in US contraction in the world.  There would be unpredictable power spasms but overall US power projection would begin to recede.  This is good news for a number of competing states - Russia, China etc.  The “so what?” for Ukraine is that they would have to rely on European support from 2025 on out.  This does not automatically mean Russian troops marching in downtown Kyiv.  It may mean the chances of a frozen conflict go up as without US support creating enough overmatch to try and breakthrough the deadlock becomes more difficult.  So we might see this thing freeze in place, which would likely also suit Putin juuuust fine as well.

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

All this is a recipe for getting exactly nothing done.

Maybe, hope so, but not necessarily...

A former White House official, speaking about the plans to send in loyalists who are better prepared to execute Trump’s agenda, said: “We’re not going to sit around and wait for the Senate, which is very, very divided and not even in the hands of conservatives, to get things done. Things will be happening, even before Inauguration Day.”

Already, conservatives are laying the groundwork for “shock troops” to take administration posts in a second Trump term, with one group, the Association of Republican Presidential Appointees, hosting a two-day “presidential appointee boot camp” Feb. 19 and 20 in the Washington suburbs.

[emphasis added]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/betrayed-trump-second-administration-loyalists-loyalty-rcna136257

Chaos is a given, paralysis, not so much. His mistake in the first term was assuming running the country would be like running his business - i.e. no checks and balances. I think he's learned that lesson, and as billbindc already pointed out, he has promised a reign of retribution. Most of the time his promises are pure BS, but revenge is possibly the only thing he's actually good at.

 

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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So unless he plans on firing great swaths of civil servants - and that is one big union to take on, I do not see him cutting through all that any easier than he did last time.

By now you've seen all the unpleasant answers to your questions. Honestly  - with respect, sympathies and appreciation, and despite your earlier objurgations and excoriations, unfortunately we must accept the tensions of not knowing the “correct“ singular answer to understandable confusions about various fraught possibilities in the USA political meltdown. There are no definitive answers until November. If then. And imagine how WE feel back in the, back in the, back in the USA! We have had to live with both the dire warnings *and* the reassurances (“He’s just joking”) for YEARS. Rising to a crescendo on January 6 and now nearing a fever pitch as the next election approaches. But please understand that large numbers of impeccable, credible, insightful voices from both military and civilian backgrounds here have been sounding the alarm in print and online since the 2016-20 first Trump. 

Trying to pick one “(he’s joking, and he can’t be an autocrat anyway”) or the other (“he’s deadly serious, like a mob boss and has his loyal lieutenants lined up to begin the process on January 20”) is a fool’s errand. As terribly divided and volatile the public is, almost *anything* could happen. Except I think, a coup attempt if Trump loses. As with billbindc, I think it less likely this time, because he isn’t the incumbent. The stark fear lies with him winning. That is at least a 50-50 probability. And yeah, I trust we’ve beaten this topic into a semblance of a shared understanding about the USA’s electoral and political realities and can wind it up now.

Edited by NamEndedAllen
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2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh dear god that is a fiasco in the making.  4000?  The US federal government has nearly 3 million employees and if they are anything like we are right now are struggle to fill the positions they have.  Firing and finding 10k “loyal conservatives” is so unrealistic it beggars imagination.  I mean sure, go for it.  First off I am pretty sure the employment laws in the US will have something to say about it “I did t get hired because I wasn’t conservative enough?”  Then the unions will have something to say about it.  And the employees will damn sure have something to say about it.

All this is a recipe for getting exactly nothing done.  Chaos and paralysis but far right revolution, I don’t think so.  

Well I think this line of discussion has run its course.  We will just have to see how this all goes down in the end.  Good thing we are doing that nuclear weapons program up here…whoops, forget I said that.

Do not underestimate the importance of those 4000.  They aren't low level pencil pushers, they are the ones who tell who to push which writing implement and when.

A perfect example of massive damage was what Trump Admin did to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.  Trump appointed someone who had no foreign policy or journalism experience.  He was there with a mandate to gut RFE because it had published articles critical of him as part of their normal reporting (i.e. they went and asked foreigners what they thought of Trump, and it wasn't pretty). 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-appointee-fires-head-radio-061008385.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGqnD6pv01H0wjRgnkEvSt3LYd9WJH9Wk6fWY5GOcnJfcLZfC5vk06Eu2EqzXUqb93exr5Adfgcroy87ll8VpXyBkghZdblD92Pmhon7A-n2mE00sxb4lRsaKTX9EtVdnQlGGl8BMseA3gDmA3vJ-H3KFBJNlB71Iu2wkbT931H2

The short of it is this ONE appointee fired all the career heads and replaced them with people that passed a purity test, started dismantling all the safeguards put in place to ensure non-politicized reporting.  Including the bipartisan oversight committee.  Without any shame he said he was remaking the organization to be loyal to Trump.

It was bad, but thankfully the damage was reversible.  Why?  Because for some reason the attack only happened in a few months before Trump lost the election.  What if they had 4 years without interference?  Worse, much worse.

The people sounding the alarms are the ones that realize we dodged a bullet due to Trump's famous laziness and equally famous favoring loyalty over competency.  He's and his movement know this and have spent the last 4 years planning to hit the ground running on day one.  They aren't even keeping it a secret.  They've made lists.  It's never good when someone is making lists.

Steve

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4 hours ago, Kraft said:

Incredible footage of the international Legion working with 59th MechBrigade storming a russian trench

 

Did that one Russian at the end (he had no weapon) really just run into the Legionnaires‘ trench and surrender? I didn’t see what happened to him after he hopped in. 

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I remember seeing that incident last year.  He runs into the their hole, unarmed looking like he's surrendering or maybe protecting his head(?) Obviously confused, he stops for a moment, then runs back out of the UKR hole and into another trench a few meters away.  And I think that's where he's killed.

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28 minutes ago, pintere said:

Did that one Russian at the end (he had no weapon) really just run into the Legionnaires‘ trench and surrender? I didn’t see what happened to him after he hopped in. 

He didnt surrender, he and his comrade were in panic and tried to flee but werent aware the other trench had been taken already, once he realised he ran back and got shot and killed by the guy wearing the gopro at 15:11 in the video

--

Also since I cant edit my original post anymore, just an innacuracy on my part, these arent international legion they are 'chosen company' international volunteers who are integrated into 59th. Canadians, Americans, a Swede and a japanease fighter. Also while Im at it, if translations dont work the fighter who got shot by the Machine Gunner (in the head?) Survived but was badly wounded.

Edited by Kraft
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6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

ok, so what has changed?" 

What will have changed is that trump will have learned that he can act with impunity and no one will stop him.  Jeebus F-in' Kristo, he actually led a coup against the elected gov't and nothing has been done about it as people quibble and wet their pants over legalisms that trump shredded already.  It's insane. 

The supreme court has no executive authority, how would they make trump comply with anything?  Congress, if there's enough snakes to not impeach (probably will be), then what are they gonna do?  Call out the army on the white house? -- the army doesn't answer to congress.

Seriously, if 2nd term trump in unimpeachable, then he can do anything he wants that is within his power.  And within his power he has the military, homeland security, the justice dept, and many other agencies that answer directly to him.  Our country is very much ruled by norms as much as laws and Trump will know neither apply to him.

Trump is actively, both in legal filings and in speeches, making the case that the president can do anything he wants, commit any crime, and without that power then it destroys the presidency.  It's bat**** but that is what he is currently arguing.  An appeals court just shot that ludicrous position down, thoroughly and sternly, but it's headed for the supreme court, who hopefully will simply refuse to hear it, letting the appeals court ruling stand.  Seriously, why does any think that someone who holds the position that they are above the law worry about the law?

Just like why do his supporters think it's impossible that he sexually assaulted a woman even though he was recorded bragging about grabbing women by the p--y and how because he's a tv star no one could do anything about it.  He literally bragged about sexually assualting women, yet someone his cult can't believe he'd actually assault a woman.  

Jesus, just take the f--er at his word and you can see how dangerous he is.

Edited by danfrodo
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12 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Maybe, hope so, but not necessarily...

A former White House official, speaking about the plans to send in loyalists who are better prepared to execute Trump’s agenda, said: “We’re not going to sit around and wait for the Senate, which is very, very divided and not even in the hands of conservatives, to get things done. Things will be happening, even before Inauguration Day.”

Already, conservatives are laying the groundwork for “shock troops” to take administration posts in a second Trump term, with one group, the Association of Republican Presidential Appointees, hosting a two-day “presidential appointee boot camp” Feb. 19 and 20 in the Washington suburbs.

Is this anything like the God's army 700,000 caravan that was supposed to descend on the border that ended up being a small trump merch swap meet?

Even if there are 4000 conservatives shock troops to occupy those positions, most of what we have seen among those supposed MAGA firebrands is just more grifters.  Even Bannon was just milking people for his wall project.  Hell the guys they have already in the House are completely dysfunctional.  Their biggest accomplishment is spending money on pins.

Congress Spends $40K to Change Color of House Lapel Pins From Green to Navy Blue Because They Can | Vanity Fair

You aren't talking about 4000 seasoned politicians who know how to make the wheels of gov't move.  At best your talking 4000 people who want to post on X about whatever the "woke" issue of the day is.  With the exception of Conner, the court system including his appointees has hardly supported Trump.

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19 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

So this thread is now called, "How Hot is The American General Election Gonna Get?"... 

Just so I'm clear. For myself. 

Yes, the smell of hair on fire is getting a little thick in here, innit?

I mean, if the thread regulars want to agonise over the fall of the Republic in the context of Ukraine, maybe look at something more directly relevant than microplaning DJT's latest excretion?

https://www.construction-physics.com/p/what-happened-to-the-us-machine-tool

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