How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

All 3 collapses were pretty much due to complete overextention and exhaustion of the forces on the front line, where skeleton crews and police units were supposed to hold frontline towns. Then the Kherson defense had to be abandoned to stop the northern collapse.

If there is another collapse, it wont be because of that reason. The russian army was well able to fill and extend its ranks despite the losses to end up in a manpower advantage. Judging by the absence of literally any kind of pushback against current mobilisation, seems russia will be able to keep this up for a while.

It was also able to restore and refurbish vehicles and equiptment at a rate I think most people didnt expect, I certainly didnt think the russian army could throw 300-400 vehicles and thousands of soldiers away right after the counter offensive bogged down, when speculations of imminent ru defense collapse were flowing around.

Without any significant change in the current support (and shell shortage) I expect a 'summer 2022' repeat, where the ru is able to grind its way forward for most of next year. Dont think F16s will significantly change that, and since there have been almost no pledges of new armored vehicles in significant numbers, I assume the gap between forces will extent. 

Subject of US politics of course, which could change all of this.

Edited December 31, 2023 by Kraft

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, Kraft said:

All 3 collapses were pretty much due to complete overextention and exhaustion of the forces on the front line, where skeleton crews and police units were supposed to hold frontline towns. Then the Kherson defense had to be abandoned to stop the northern collapse.

If there is another collapse, it wont be because of that reason. The russian army was well able to fill and extend its ranks despite the losses to end up in a manpower advantage. Judging by the absence of literally any kind of pushback against current mobilisation, seems russia will be able to keep this up for a while.

This is a flawed statement.  There is MASSIVE pushback against mobilization, there is little pushback against volunteers.  The reason I thought a collapse was possible in 2023 is that the Russian winter offensive appeared to be outstripping the supply of volunteers.  If that had happened Russia would have been forced to either do another mobilization (potentially destabilizing the regime) or been forced to go on a dangerously thin defensive until volunteers could make up for losses.  This did not happen because Russia somehow managed to continue the supply of volunteers at a much higher level than expected.

With that in mind, Russia's supply of volunteers is not endless.  It could be that in 2024 they start to exhaust that source.  Could be that they don't.  We simply don't know.  However, Russia continuing to waste it's manpower on fruitless attacks will get us closer to the point of getting an answer.

As for vehicles, this is also not an endless supply.  At several points in this war they've not been able to make up their losses with anything, even museum pieces.  With the large scale wastage of vehicles on pointless attacks, we'll again get to see how much longer Russia can put off the inevitable.

Steve

[danfrodo]

Ye old RU stuff blowing up.  It may be kinda sick, but I like watching those bent on murder getting blown up.  

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/12/31/2214678/-More-Russian-stuff-blowing-up-New-Year-s-in-Ukraine?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As for vehicles, this is also not an endless supply.  At several points in this war they've not been able to make up their losses with anything, even museum pieces.  With the large scale wastage of vehicles on pointless attacks, we'll again get to see how much longer Russia can put off the inevitable.

I saw a post somewhere today showing an RU train w a dozen or so IFVs of various flavors, allegedly stuck waiting because RRoad was out.  I was bummed to see fresh IFVs for RU, then realized it was basically one day's worth given current RU losses.

[The_Capt]

16 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

First collapse was a result of a complete mess of an invasion plan... second was around Kharkiv, I think that was supposed to be a withdrawal but yes, it turned into a collapse with many losses of important assets. But what was the third one? I consider the Kherson episode a pretty orderly withdrawal.

But if they collapse operationally again in this war, I have a fresh crow here, all plucked and ready to eat

 

Ah, so that is what happened?  I guess from that particular layman’s perspective the trajectory of the RA does appear upwards.  They sucked in the initial invasion and have been sucking less and less up through the summer offensive.

The problem with a layman’s assessment is that it ignores the deeper causal issues.  So here is a quick  and dirty professional assessment:

- Russian operational and strategic quality has been a factor in this war but it is secondary.

- The primary factor driving outcomes is fundamental shifts in the character of warfare in the modern age.  Primarily the fact that evidence is becoming nearly insurmountable that we have shifted from offensive primacy through concentrated mass to defensive primacy through denial.

- At Kyiv in Feb of ‘22, the RA had massive mass superiority against an opponent who had not even time to dig in.  RUSI reports show upwards of 12:1 concentrations of RA spearheads to local UA defence, which was largely distributed.  Even accounting for Russian failings, those sort of mass ratios should have blown through whatever defence the UA could mount..and initially it did.

- And then friction kicked in.  Modern warfare, enabled by ubiquitous C4ISR, PGM and deep strike has created friction pressures that in effect break mass.  The ability to project and sustain it in particular.  This combined with a baffling Air Denial dynamic essentially broke the traditional mass concentration ratios.  The UA’s ability to deny air superiority with disparate and ad hoc capability plugged into another ad hoc C4ISR architecture will be studied for decades.  These conditions ensured that however the RA sucked, they had no offsets in the one strength they did have - overwhelming force advantages.

- The northern axis collapsed when the RA was unable to sustain itself.  Russia may suck but no modern army on the planet is built to have its entire LOC infrastructure lit up from space and hit with precision artillery and ATGMs at the ranges experienced.  The fact that the RA undersubscribed the logistic requirement is a combination of sucking and warfare changing.

- Kharkiv was very similar.  The RA was over extended…by emerging modern standard.  They experience corrosive warfare at is zenith as HIMARs got into the game and essentially broke what was left of a logistical system built for another era…Jan ‘22.  The operational collapse at Kharkiv is one for the history books.  How it was established and conducted points to new forms of tactical manoeuvre and exploitation.

- Kherson was a collapse before a full collapse.  In this Russia did learn (after two failures) what collapse was starting to look like.  The pull out may have proceeded in good order but it was also a major operational failure.  Why?  Because of what did not happen (something layman also are prone to miss).  The RA should have been able to turn Kherson into a reverse Mariupol and break the UA on a grinding urban fight.  But they could not…because they were collapsing.  And they still could not establish operational conditions to do otherwise.

- The RA now is benefiting from the shift in character of warfare…not sucking less.  The one thing they did right was put in minefields everywhere.  This multiplied the friction of modern systems dramatically.  To the point that UA mass…wait for it….did not work as it was supposed to.

The RA of today is a shadow of its former self.  Beyond the body count, the high end operational enablers have seen significant attrition.  They are able to hold on and will continue to make tactical offensive just to make a point but they are in no shape for major operational offensive action in their current state.  They are not sucking less, they are better suited to fight in line with what war has become.  Unless the UA buckles and walks away, the RA is able to hold on (maybe) but will take a decade to rebuild itself back to where it was in Feb ‘22.

So “Russia Sux” is only half the story and not even the most important half.   Warfare has fundamentally changed and both sides are grappling with that is why any predictions on what will happen are nearly useless at this point.

But hey we are just guys in a bar talking….

Edited January 1 by The_Capt

[Bulletpoint]

32 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Ye old RU stuff blowing up.  It may be kinda sick, but I like watching those bent on murder getting blown up.  

The sad truth is that Russian troops are not all evil people bent on murder. Some, yes. But far from all. Many are just deluded.

[paxromana]

44 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The sad truth is that Russian troops are not all evil people bent on murder. Some, yes. But far from all. Many are just deluded.

Yeah, just deluded murderers.

[Bulletpoint]

8 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Yeah, just deluded murderers.

Yes. Same thing with any faction. Russia, Israel, Hamas etc... They all think they fight the good fight.

[Splinty]

Happy New Year my friends! Slava Ukraine!

[Battlefront.com]

Happy New Year!  (I'm T Minus 22 and already very sleepy! )

Steve

[paxromana]

Slowpokes! its 15:31 1 JAN 24 here in Sydney!

[JonS]

2 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Slowpokes! its 15:31 1 JAN 24 here in Sydney!

ahem

[fireship4]

Happy New Year to you all.  Thanks for the interesting discussion, may this thread end as soon as possible: war over, lands restored, the dead risen, bombs unexploded.

[Lethaface]

14 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Yep. 

Also, ref Rotterdam, who the only reason it worked was that Belgium had no useful defense or means of striking back.

Although Rotterdam is not in Belgium . Not that Netherlands had the means to lay waste to any German city.

[Lethaface]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

So far only sign of Russian collapse is acute lack of eggs...but it's better than nothing I guess. Sometimes a pebble can start an avalanche.

Happy New Year to everyone.

 

 

 

Egg good

[mosuri]

On 12/31/2023 at 12:02 AM, Haiduk said:

By the way USSR conducted successful bombing campaing against Finland in 1944, forcing them to change the side.

 

Sorry Haiduk, but this is just plain wrong. That may have been Stalin's intent but ADD was not up to the task. The February bombings caused a small amount of damage only.

They did manage to completely demolish their own embassy though. The bricks of that building were recycled and used in student accommodaton buildings in the 50s. I spent a couple of years in that campus myself as well...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Helsinki_in_World_War_II

[Carolus]

 

Happy New Year 2024, Gentlemen and Gentleladies.

 

Let's enjoy the news that Ukrainian sea drones apparently have missile launchers. 

 

[Zeleban]

Happy New Year everyone. Looks like there were festive fireworks in Donetsk on New Year's Eve

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Although Rotterdam is not in Belgium . Not that Netherlands had the means to lay waste to any German city.

Doh. of course you're correct. I blame the Mayan tequila swilling through me! 

[Kinophile]

Drone launches from UKR sea drones are next, is my 2024 prediction

[Kraft]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a flawed statement.  There is MASSIVE pushback against mobilization, there is little pushback against volunteers.  The reason I thought a collapse was possible in 2023 is that the Russian winter offensive appeared to be outstripping the supply of volunteers.  If that had happened Russia would have been forced to either do another mobilization (potentially destabilizing the regime) or been forced to go on a dangerously thin defensive until volunteers could make up for losses.  This did not happen because Russia somehow managed to continue the supply of volunteers at a much higher level than expected.

With that in mind, Russia's supply of volunteers is not endless.  It could be that in 2024 they start to exhaust that source.  Could be that they don't.  We simply don't know.  However, Russia continuing to waste it's manpower on fruitless attacks will get us closer to the point of getting an answer.

As for vehicles, this is also not an endless supply.  At several points in this war they've not been able to make up their losses with anything, even museum pieces.  With the large scale wastage of vehicles on pointless attacks, we'll again get to see how much longer Russia can put off the inevitable.

Steve

I posted a video a while back of some OSINT guy who pixel counts the open storage fields for tanks. 

According to his rough estimate, and dismissing large numbers of vehicles that were in too poor shape, russia has about 1.5-2 years of tanks left to continue this burn just on its own, not counting production numbers that are in the 3 digits

As for mobilisation, true greedy volunteers and convicts have been supplementing the graveyards but mobilisation is still active, just not in a big wave but trickling, which causes far less political instability (and 0 protests) than a million russians getting a letter at once.

Edited January 1 by Kraft

[Kraft]

Sampled were almost 3000 pieces of individual components from missiles, drones and tanks.

Edited January 1 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Sampled were almost 3000 pieces of individual components from missiles, drones and tanks.

We have seen more than a few of these sorts of graphics.  All they really prove is that globalization is a thing.  The US sells electronics around the bloody world.  It is a primary supplier within defence industries.  Russia could be getting this stuff from any number of second or third party re-sellers who are outside of the agreed sanctions regime - remember Russian sanctions are not imposed by the UN, only by willing nations.  A lot of this could also be from stocks Russia had from before the war.  In the same vein, not everyone who uses an AK is being directly supported by Russia.

What is interesting is the trajectory of these sorts of graphics over time.  If Russia starts using more Chinese than US parts it could be a sign that their pre-war stocks are dwindling.

[Haiduk]

Likely TOW from Bradley hit attacking Ruassian BMP and then finished it with 25 mm gun. Disembarked infantry tries to cover behind oppose side of vehicle, but the drone dropped grenades on them

 

[Kraft]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We have seen more than a few of these sorts of graphics.  All they really prove is that globalization is a thing.  The US sells electronics around the bloody world.  It is a primary supplier within defence industries.  Russia could be getting this stuff from any number of second or third party re-sellers who are outside of the agreed sanctions regime - remember Russian sanctions are not imposed by the UN, only by willing nations.  A lot of this could also be from stocks Russia had from before the war.  In the same vein, not everyone who uses an AK is being directly supported by Russia.

What is interesting is the trajectory of these sorts of graphics over time.  If Russia starts using more Chinese than US parts it could be a sign that their pre-war stocks are dwindling.

I know, my point is sanctions have little to no effect.

Surprisingly, just shipping this stuff to a border country and having a truck drive over is enough to circumvent most of it, a sudden 1000% increase in imports from some russian vassal has yet to raise an eyebrow with the people who designed this 'embargo'.

 

[sburke]

Just now, Kraft said:

I know, my point is sanctions have little to no effect.

just wrong.  maybe not the effect you are looking for but i don't think you really understand how sanctions work.