How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

To weigh in here about the whole pro-Russian aspect of Ukraine... it exists for sure, but there's a complicated set of motivations.  Russian language is not a good indicator, therefore any assessment based on language should just be tossed right into the bin.  It's completely misleading.

It is true that some regions are more pro-Russian than others.  The Donbas and Crimea were not chosen by Russia at random.  But universal approval?  Hardly.  Maybe slightly better than 50% overall.  And all of that was prior to 2014 before it became apparent that being Ukrainian and pro-Russian were incompatible.

Steve

[Zeleban]

23 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Well... Citizens of Belgorod joyfully write a gloating posts, when S-300/S-400 from their city outskirts were launching on Kharkiv. Now Belgorod received the second, more tough strike since last night. Officially 14 citizens of Belgorod were killed (among them two kids), 108 were wounded.

The center of Belforod is in 58-60 km from northern Kharkiv outskirts and in 40-45 km from the border area. Somebody say this is "Russian false flag attack". I doubt (if this wasn't Grad). Let they feel the same that feel citizens of Kharkiv almost each week two uears so far and citizens of other Ukrainian cities.

Pilots of Allied bombers without hesitattion were pushing buttons to drop heavy bombs of German cities. This is a war for annihilation. To hell hypocritic humanity. Russian cities have to look like Gaza after all these two years, maybe this washed remains of their brain back. No mercy

Belgorod several hours ago

Mmmm... Do you scream? Scared? Really? Not so joyfully now?

Russian MoD made official statement, claiming Belgorod was shelled with two "Vil'kha" missiles and MLRS "Vampire" rockets (eeee.... Vampire has 20 km of range, are you kidding?). As if most of missiles were intercepted by AD. So, according to Russian logic in deaths of Belgorod citizens local AD is guilted. If they didn't intercet missiles, its fragments would not be fall on civilains and just peacefully hit military objects! 

A very absurd attack, unless of course it was aimed at residential areas and not at military targets. Such attacks only increase the desire of Russians to join the Russian army and take revenge for their homes and property and also increase Putin's popularity. Can a handful of charred cars and the screams of defenseless women and children really bring you joy?

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You just spent ink telling us how "they are all bad" and going to lose.  You have spent enormous effort trying to build that echo chamber for whatever reason.  And now you expect us to accept this new narrative.  I am sorry to me it sounds a lot like you are simply making this stuff up.

I have zero doubt Russia has been oppressing and conscripting...hell they have not even been subtle about it.  I also have zero doubts that there are groups and communities that are on-side with the Russians and see themselves as more Russian than Ukrainian...or perhaps a mix of both.  I also think that it is not a stretch to consider that out of those tens of thousands of LNR and DPR troops that a fair number were only fighting for their own homes and no greater Russian cause.

As to them universally opposing any and all Russian overtures...I call BS.  There is enough evidence of collusion and support for Russian agendas in these regions to sow seeds of doubt. 

Of course none of this matters, right?  Because according to you Ukraine is going to lose the war entirely and embrace Russia. 

When Ukraine was given the opportunity to resit Russia by force it did.  Not just now, not just 2014, but let's not forget the partisan war waged against Soviet (Russian) authority well into the 1950s.  Even though their state had been ravaged by both the Soviets and the Nazis over a 4 year period, there were still plenty of Ukrainians fighting for a free and independent state EVEN THOUGH they weren't supported by anybody else.  The thought that Ukraine will just fold up and become a willing part of Russia after all this is preposterous.  Even if the Ukrainian state fails and Russia somehow walks into Kyiv, it will not stop there.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

A very absurd attack, unless of course it was aimed at residential areas and not at military targets. Such attacks only increase the desire of Russians to join the Russian army and take revenge for their homes and property and also increase Putin's popularity. Can a handful of charred cars and the screams of defenseless women and children really bring you joy?

Unfortunately, by not attacking Russia that gives Russian citizens a sense of immunity from the actions of their government (generally) and military (specifically). This leads the population into thinking there are no consequences for their bad deeds, therefore encourages them to keep supporting the current regime's actions in Ukraine.

There are historical precedents for this sort of thing.  None of them good.  But for sure, letting the Russian population believe they won't have to suffer any ill effects from the war against Ukraine is not in Ukraine's best interests.

I just hope that Ukraine continues to direct it's attacks on legitimate targets and not, like Russia, pure civilian targets either by choice or neglect.

Steve

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

A very absurd attack, unless of course it was aimed at residential areas and not at military targets. Such attacks only increase the desire of Russians to join the Russian army and take revenge for their homes and property and also increase Putin's popularity. Can a handful of charred cars and the screams of defenseless women and children really bring you joy?

If you see more videos from there, many of scared citizens say "we have to flee from the city". The citizens of European part of Russia cities have much more comfort life, than inhabitants of villages, small towns and depressive regions, which mostly enlisted to army. Do not shoot at the cities, this is the same as "do not provoke Russia" before a war. Every Russian MUST. MUST. MUST to feel that the war is fear, blood, dirt, loss of property. Not tells about endless victories "with small blood" onTV. Then maybe they can ask authorities - WHY? Because now they have moods "go,go,go, we are winining! Khokols, surrender!"  

But Belgorod really has many (around)military industry factories and military objects. What was a target - we don't know. Because all missiles were "intercepted by Russian AD in unpofessional way" %)

Official reaction of UKR command - "Belgorod suffered because of mistakingly Russian AD work"

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

Just now, Haiduk said:

If you see more videos from there, many of scared citizens say "we have to flee from the city". The citizens of European part of Russia cities have much more comfort life, than inhabitants of villages, small towns and depressive regions, which mostly enlisted to army. Do not shoot at the cities, this is the same as "do not provoke Russia" before a war. Every Russian MUST. MUST. MUST to feel that the war is fear, blood, dirt, loss of property. Then maybe they can ask authorities - WHY? Because now they have moods "go,gp,go, we are winining! Khokols, surrender!"  

And they will know about it. But only after they join the Russian army and come to fight in Ukraine in order to take revenge on the Ukrainians. By the way, it is among residents of large cities that support for Ukraine is greatest, in contrast to residents of small towns and villages.

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When Ukraine was given the opportunity to resit Russia by force it did.  Not just now, not just 2014, but let's not forget the partisan war waged against Soviet (Russian) authority well into the 1950s.  Even though their state had been ravaged by both the Soviets and the Nazis over a 4 year period, there were still plenty of Ukrainians fighting for a free and independent state EVEN THOUGH they weren't supported by anybody else.  The thought that Ukraine will just fold up and become a willing part of Russia after all this is preposterous.  Even if the Ukrainian state fails and Russia somehow walks into Kyiv, it will not stop there.

Steve

Well that was kinda where I was at but then this fella comes along and makes continuous - the point of never ending - arguments that Ukraine is a lost cause.  Now they are apparently entirely united in that lost cause, the point that veteran UA will be willing to be the tip of the spear in the Baltics...or is it conscripted wholesale?  Honestly I am losing the bubble here.  All Ukraine opposes Russia, but are on the edge of falling apart...together...?  Oh and all the while this is the West/US fault.

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

By the way, it is among residents of large cities that support for Ukraine is greatest

Not support of Ukraine, but own fear to go at the war. But they have nothing against if Russia win. Becase "then the war will be finished, people will no longer die from both sides, our nations will make friendship again and we can  walk along beautiful L'vov again"

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[kimbosbread]

I think Belgorod and all the border cities there should be attacked regularly. Depopulate the area as much as possible and create a nice buffer zone. Send in the Free Russia legion and have them mine the hell out of it on the sly. Rostov next please.

If we are worried about the US and Europe backing off, this kind of action provides at least an alternative (or practically speaking, compliments) proliferation.

[Haiduk]

The version, that Russia itself shelled Belgorod with MLRS Grad (calling it "Vampire") during UKR drone or "Vil'kha" attack on some military or industrial objects in the city. But well, let see maybe other OSINTers can conirm or refute this

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Result of next meat assault - BMP with pilled dead bodies on the top. FPV hit BMP, it burns  and likley widows of these soldiers have a risk never to receive own millions - "no body, no case"

 

[Beleg85]

More pictures from Belgorod.

No idea if it was one salvo or some more prolonged strikes. But already claimed number of victims- no doubt inflated- is reaching 14 killed. Zakharova requested emergency UN security council meeting.

 

[Haiduk]

UKR ZSU-23-4M-A1 "Rokach" - upgraded "Shilka" with "Rokach-A1" digital antenna grid radar, also 4 MANPADs can be mounted. Can detect usual aerial targets on 25 km and drones on 6-9 km.

If we could solve the problem with 23 mm AA barrels and ammunition it can ve useful for frontline covering and infrastructure objects protection

 

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Comparisons with the Germans and occupied region formations during WW2 are not well aligned. In many cases people joined up with the Germans to fight the Soviet Union who had been more oppressive than the German regime - we had one in Parliament last year (whoops).  These divisions were rarely (and I am struggling to find an example) fully formed and simply switched sides.  For them war as personal against the Allies, Soviet Union and Stalin in particular.  Others were driven by colonial and local impulses, such as the Balkans who really did not care who they worked for so long as they got to kill the right neighbour.

This will probably be my last post regarding this topic since I know how easily it is to distract folks with WW2 related stuff on this forum.

For example lets take a country like France. They did not go through the horrors of Stalinism. They were an established colonial power themselves. Despite going through not one but two bloody world wars with the Germans the Germans still managed to get some Frenchmen to wear German uniforms during the war.

Unfortunately I think that in the event of a total Russian occupation of Ukraine, Russia would probably be able to get people to serve it from all over Ukraine. Even from western Ukraine.

The reasons would be different. Some would do it for political reasons while others may just think they would look handsome in a military uniform. Some would just obey any authority figure even if that authority is a foreign power occupying their country.

Just so no Europeans think that I'm picking on them, I do not think this is an exclusively French or Ukrainian scenario. In an event of one of those fictional scenarios where the Germans or Soviets somehow managed to occupy parts of North America (lets not get into how plausible many of those scenarios are from a military standpoint ) I think we would also have people who would be willing to put on the occupiers uniform.

Picture related, two Frenchmen wearing German uniforms.

 

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Not support of Ukraine, but own fear to go at the war. But they have nothing against if Russia win. Becase "then the war will be finished, people will no longer die from both sides, our nations will make friendship again and we can  walk along beautiful L'vov again"

 

Yes, this is the important point that is often missed.  There are very few pro-Ukrainian Russians from what I can tell.  Even Russians with Ukrainian ties are, for the most part, solidly in favor of Ukraine becoming a part of Russia.

What does exist is a segment of the Russian population that doesn't want the war to negatively affect their lives.  This group is mostly concentrated in the European Russian cities.  They are not against the war itself.  They are not against Ukraine being wiped off the face of the Earth.  They are just against the idea that their lives might be negatively impacted by the war.

Making this group fear the war will disrupt their lives is important.  It is the only hope of some segment of the Russian population taking some action against the regime AND not wanting to expand the war (as the ultra nationalists want to do).  Disrupting their comfort is definitely a good way to force the issue.  Hitting purely civilian infrastructure (hospitals, schools, shopping malls, etc.) is a very bad thing to do.  Not only is it illegal according to international law, but it is the sort of thing that might convince someone to support the war as "necessary".

Steve

[Haiduk]

3rd assault brigade posted in own TG a video about price of peaceful Christamas and New Year holidays for Ukraine - during their more than half-year campaign near Bakhmut they lost 181 servicemen. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

This will probably be my last post regarding this topic since I know how easily it is to distract folks with WW2 related stuff on this forum.

For example lets take a country like France. They did not go through the horrors of Stalinism. They were an established colonial power themselves. Despite going through not one but two bloody world wars with the Germans the Germans still managed to get some Frenchmen to wear German uniforms during the war.

Unfortunately I think that in the event of a total Russian occupation of Ukraine, Russia would probably be able to get people to serve it from all over Ukraine. Even from western Ukraine.

The reasons would be different. Some would do it for political reasons while others may just think they would look handsome in a military uniform. Some would just obey any authority figure even if that authority is a foreign power occupying their country.

Just so no Europeans think that I'm picking on them, I do not think this is an exclusively French or Ukrainian scenario. In an event of one of those fictional scenarios where the Germans or Soviets somehow managed to occupy parts of North America (lets not get into how plausible many of those scenarios are from a military standpoint ) I think we would also have people who would be willing to put on the occupiers uniform.

Picture related, two Frenchmen wearing German uniforms.

 

If Russia took over New England or Texas (two areas very well known for their emphasis on independence and liberty), they would have no problem recruiting Americans as part of the terror apparatus.  That is because the flaws that allow Humans to do this sort of thing are genetic and not cultural to some extent.  Therefore, no population on Earth is without it's willing accomplices to tyranny.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

3rd assault brigade posted in own TG a video about price of peaceful Christamas and New Year holidays for Ukraine - during their more than half-year campaign near Bakhmut they lost 181 servicemen. 

Wow, that few?  I am sure they had 10x that wounded, but I'm surprised 181 after all that intense fighting. 

I am glad they are taking some time off from the front.  They (and all Ukrainians) deserve it.

Steve

[Zeleban]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, this is the important point that is often missed.  There are very few pro-Ukrainian Russians from what I can tell.  Even Russians with Ukrainian ties are, for the most part, solidly in favor of Ukraine becoming a part of Russia.

Not a little at all. I can say that I have both relatives and friends in Moscow. According to them, their circle is divided approximately equally into those who sympathize with Putin and those who openly despise him. 

One thing I can say for sure is that, like some participants in our forum from the occupied territories, residents of Moscow are very afraid to correspond on the topic of the war in Ukraine, even with people close to them, because the FSB can spy on them, monitoring their correspondence in messengers.

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Not support of Ukraine, but own fear to go at the war. But they have nothing against if Russia win. Becase "then the war will be finished, people will no longer die from both sides, our nations will make friendship again and we can  walk along beautiful L'vov again"

 

 

I think that after the attacks on residential areas, many of those who hesitated will happily join the ranks of the Russian army

[Bulletpoint]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wow, that few?  I am sure they had 10x that wounded, but I'm surprised 181 after all that intense fighting.

I would be surprised if it's really that few.

[Zeleban]

For some reason, Russia has always worked very competently with the sentiments of Ukrainians, convincing them. that by supporting Russia they will only benefit. Even after 2014, many Ukrainians continued to support Russia, since Russia carried out active and competent “work” to create similar sentiments among Ukrainians. He easily pits various social groups of Ukrainians against each other, manipulating their moods. That is why I am convinced that in the event of a truce with Ukraine, Putin will again be able to bring his politicians to power in Ukraine without any particular difficulties.

 

Unfortunately, the actions of the Ukrainians in trying to win over the Russians, who have not decided who to support in this war, are zero. And in my opinion, the Ukrainians will never be able to destroy Russia without the help of the Russians themselves.

[Zeleban]

Well, we rejoiced a little and that’s enough. Now it’s the Russians’ turn to rejoice again

The Russians attacked a hotel in Kharkov with ballistic missiles

Edited December 30, 2023 by Zeleban

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Well... Citizens of Belgorod joyfully write a gloating posts, when S-300/S-400 from their city outskirts were launching on Kharkiv. Now Belgorod received the second, more tough strike since last night. Officially 14 citizens of Belgorod were killed (among them two kids), 108 were wounded.

The center of Belforod is in 58-60 km from northern Kharkiv outskirts and in 40-45 km from the border area. Somebody say this is "Russian false flag attack". I doubt (if this wasn't Grad). Let they feel the same that feel citizens of Kharkiv almost each week two uears so far and citizens of other Ukrainian cities.

Pilots of Allied bombers without hesitattion were pushing buttons to drop heavy bombs of German cities. This is a war for annihilation. To hell hypocritic humanity. Russian cities have to look like Gaza after all these two years, maybe this washed remains of their brain back. No mercy

Belgorod several hours ago

Mmmm... Do you scream? Scared? Really? Not so joyfully now?

Russian MoD made official statement, claiming Belgorod was shelled with two "Vil'kha" missiles and MLRS "Vampire" rockets (eeee.... Vampire has 20 km of range, are you kidding?). As if most of missiles were intercepted by AD. So, according to Russian logic in deaths of Belgorod citizens local AD is guilted. If they didn't intercet missiles, its fragments would not be fall on civilains and just peacefully hit military objects! 

I don't think civilians should ever be targeted.

But even if we accept the argument that Russians need to be attacked and made afraid in order to make them oppose the war, you should not bomb some tiny border town where people have no say in anything.

The only thing their deaths will accomplish is to provide perfect fuel for the Russian propaganda machine.

You should attack Moscow, and especially the areas where the Russian elite lives.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

This will probably be my last post regarding this topic since I know how easily it is to distract folks with WW2 related stuff on this forum.

For example lets take a country like France. They did not go through the horrors of Stalinism. They were an established colonial power themselves. Despite going through not one but two bloody world wars with the Germans the Germans still managed to get some Frenchmen to wear German uniforms during the war.

Unfortunately I think that in the event of a total Russian occupation of Ukraine, Russia would probably be able to get people to serve it from all over Ukraine. Even from western Ukraine.

The reasons would be different. Some would do it for political reasons while others may just think they would look handsome in a military uniform. Some would just obey any authority figure even if that authority is a foreign power occupying their country.

Just so no Europeans think that I'm picking on them, I do not think this is an exclusively French or Ukrainian scenario. In an event of one of those fictional scenarios where the Germans or Soviets somehow managed to occupy parts of North America (lets not get into how plausible many of those scenarios are from a military standpoint ) I think we would also have people who would be willing to put on the occupiers uniform.

Picture related, two Frenchmen wearing German uniforms.

 

Damn good one.  Vichy French did spring to mind after I posted as maybe the one case. But I would still be reluctant to make direct parallels.  German occupation and Russian occupation are two very different things.  All war is personal.  Some may jump onboard for money or ideology but there are grudges on the table that will last a century.

If I was in Ukraine and an invading force killed my son, I would wage a resistance that made the Taliban look like girl scouts until the Russians all died or I did.  That times several tens of thousands is where we are at right now.   

[Vet 0369]

14 hours ago, OBJ said:

Thanks Vet, we agree on many things but maybe not this one.

I did a little research. I have heard a lot about this agreement without knowing anything myself. Apparently what was signed in 1994 was an agreement in which the US, Russia and the UK offered 'assurances' not to attack or coerce the minor countries, including Ukraine. I cannot find a commitment to defend the minors from aggression. If there is a bad faith actor in this it looks like Russia to me.

Assuming Wikipedia is a reliable source in this context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum

"The memoranda, signed in Patria Hall at the Budapest Convention Center with US Ambassador Donald M. Blinken amongst others in attendance,^[3] prohibited the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, "except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations." 

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-states-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-states-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082124528/ukraine-russia-putin-invasion

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-did-ukraine-give-nukes-russia-us-security-guarantees-1765048

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/05/science/ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html

Well then, I obviously had bad information, and stand corrected! Thank you.