Jump to content

How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

The most probable “danger” to the U.S. for Ukraine is that the Federal Budget ends at 23:59 on September 30, 2023. Without a new budget already in place, the Congress will have to pass a number of Continuing Resolutions for the Executive Branch Departments to continue to operate. In this current Congress of basically two extremist groups of Legislators and Senators, with few moderates left on either side, based on my own past experiences, no budget will be passed until at least the end of December.

Indeed! An excellent fact for September. Worse, it is messily tied up in multiple knotty House battles:

* The “Freedom Caucus” demands on enormous budget cuts, without which - no funding for the government AND quite likely no more Continuing Resolutions. They have way more than enough votes to enforce this, including any Senate/House Conference efforts. Yeah yeah yeah, this is always a threat and then at last minute the government is funded. But at a cost. This time? See below:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/08/kevin-mccarthy-joe-biden-impeachment-push The Speaker is in a bind of either agreeing to impeachment of Biden now, or losing his Speakership. His latest ploy is to agreeing to start the impeachment process if the “Freedom Caucus” members agree to a stopgap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. Which would also shut down their impeachment inquiry. Many USA sources from Fox to CBS to CNN and the newspapers of record are covering this.

So Ukraine funding LEVELS are a football or a pawn within the much larger domestic political strife in the USA. Oh, and then the various trials of the previous President will be starting. 

No matter one’s politics, it’s a mess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

No matter one’s politics, it’s a mess.

I'm looking for an "Understatement" button to click on for your post and not finding it.  Probably a good thing ;)

The question was asked about what tricks are up the President's sleeve in the event that funding is cut for Ukraine.  The answer has already been stated that there are SOME things that can be done, but like any work around it isn't as good as the straight forward way.  There are political costs, at least, for overtly working around Congress.  So, as said, there are some limited ways around Congress not funding something.  The previous President, for example, took money out of the defense budget and used it to build some walls with Mexico.  Amazingly this was not shot down by the Supreme Court, despite it being a brazen misappropriation of funds according to standard private and public sector accounting practices.

The bigger problem, though, is that the prediction is that the entire US government will be shut down.  Not only won't Ukraine funding be a problem, but everything else that is even remotely tied to Federal spending will be affected.  We've already had one government shutdown in my lifetime and it was not pretty.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Oh for sure those videos of explosions hints at some MASSIVE scale destruction.  I not only doubt that there were "4 planes damaged", but I'm guessing that airbase operations are going to be shut down for a while.  I think they hit a fuel storage facility and those ILs are very thirsty beasts.  Fueling workarounds are bound to be problematic.

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Unit of 3rd assault brigade had a drone, Russians - no. Their "foot recon in force without relying on drone" finised predictably

 

That was a slaughter.  The text talks about drones, but an even more basic thing wasn't mentioned... radio communications!  From what I can tell the position was occupied by active Russian soldiers who should have had the ability, and the wherewithal, to communicate their situation up the chain of command.  Reinforcements should have come to the position in a coordinated way assuming the position was lost.  Instead they waltzed in as if it wasn't.

Aside from this, there's yet more examples of individual Russian soldiers making horribly dumb and fatal decisions.  Walking up to a position with fresh corpses should be, oh I don't know, a reason to proceed with caution?  Maybe unsling your rifle? The guy who made it all the way to the left side of the frame could have surrendered, but instead he ran back through the obvious path of death (obvious to him, not just us).

Steve

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, JonS said:

Well, all good things can be used in bad ways, sure. All men have a penis, but we aren't all rapists, for example.

Ethnicity also isn't a binary - a person can legitimately be multiple things at once. I'm a Wellingtonian (which comes with a different set of assumptions than being either a Mainlander or an Aucklander, although neither of those distinctions probably mean much outside the country), and a Kiwi (similar but different to Australian), and sort-of British (somewhat similar but also very different to American), and sort-of European (different to Asian or African). None of them completely describe me, but all of them provide some degree of insight, depending on the audience. Theres nothing inherently racist about any of those categories, even though of course Wellingtonians are naturally superior to Aucklanders.

And Architects to Engineers. 

It's a structural thing, all part of a greater design of course. But built on a solid foundation.... Buttressed with concrete ideas and please help me I can't stop

 

 

Edited by Kinophile
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As I looked at where Ukraine hit various targets in Russia, a swarm strategy came to mind.  Plot a path through the weakest air defenses with the least amount of overlap, send a large number of drones in spaced groups, and have each drone (or perhaps group) designated to hit different targets along the path.  The concentration of drones would hopefully overwhelm defenses and the strikes would cause major confusion about what might be hit next.  The uncertainty could cause resources to be suboptimally deployed or illicit some sort of desirable reaction like all the workers leaving factories or aircraft evacuating airports that aren't being targeted.

Anyway, just a thought!

Steve

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/29/holdouts-quit-kupiansk-after-renewed-russian-shelling-ukraine

In Kharkiv... a Soviet-era sanatorium converted into a rehabilitation centre for soldiers in need of psychological support.... This centre, one of five around the country, caters for 100 soldiers at a time, with a programme containing elements ranging from aromatherapy and swimming through to individual and group therapy sessions – we visited one session discussing what to do when your buddy freezes with fear on the frontline....

Soldiers arrived feeling “moral, mental and physical exhaustion,” he said, with sleep problems the most common symptom, worsened by lack of rotations from the frontline. But Ukraine needs troops and 90% are sent back to the battlefield.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Something hit in Brianks, too. Seems like larger action.

 

Reportedly factory "Kremniy EL" was hit, producing microelectronic parts, chips and semiconductors. 90 % of production uses in defense industry. Particularly in missiles Topol-M, Bulava, avionics of fighter jets MiG and Su, in SAMs S-300/400, Pantsyr S1 Russians claimed just downed drone fell on the factory

Edited by Haiduk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This night Russia conducted retaliation combined strike with Shakheds and cruise missiles.

Loud night was in Kyiv too. Over the city and around were intercepted 20 aerial targets. Alas, in Kyiv parts of downed missile killes two citizens, also in Kyiv and oblast several citizens were injured by fragments of broken windows. 

Odesa was under attack two, reportedly 8 missiles were intercepted over the sea.

Total Russians have launched 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles (all were intercepted) and 16 Shakeds (15 were intercepted)

Усі, крім одної: під час нічної атаки було знищено 43 повітряні цілі

Edited by Haiduk
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Fenris said:

Chosen Company doing a trench assault.  Unit is foreign volunteers serving with the 59th Motorized Brigade.  There's been a few clips recently from Ryan O'Leary who is with this unit (the one where the RU man ran back into his trench and then ran away again).  There's nothing graphic besides an aussie's colourful language.  Is quite a change hearing people communicating all in English.

 

I think this is the original upload which is age restricted - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eji0u88nIoc

image.png.7ed7ba8ce302fb1c27cf8fceab523098.png

 

A bayonet? Really? I thought that fad had run its way in WWI...

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, poesel said:

image.png.7ed7ba8ce302fb1c27cf8fceab523098.png

 

A bayonet? Really? I thought that fad had run its way in WWI...

 

 

 

Who knows.  They're the ones doing the fighting, I'm pretty sure they're more experienced at it than any of us.

Speaking of ye olde things, there's a short clip from one of these guys where you see him step over a Mosin-Nagant in the dirt as he moves through a trench.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

(..)

These terms are nothing more than labels that people apply to others to allow themselves to feel superior to the “subsets” in some way. That practice is more commonly known as RACISM. And yes, the Americans have engendered more than enough of that, but probably no more than any other existing country in the world.

A testament to the quality of this thread:

it took 2814 pages before the subject of racism popped up. That must be a worldrecord for any thread on any forum these days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Detailed analysis of current situation by one military expert on structure and modus operandi of current Russian army. Autotranslated from rather hectic language (pl), but worth to read it even for english-users ; unfortunatelly I cannot translate plates as it takes a lot of work with Google Lens, they are very informative too but most followers of this thread should get their rough meaning anyway. Generally adviseable to read it, as colonel is expert on "Red Team" operational and strategic planning, put lot of effort to collect data and was generally right in the past.

https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1696739655473860768.html?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Note: EMS, SZU and similar are autotranslated wrongly acronyms of AFU.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quote

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine, all of which ISW has observed. The GUR reported on August 29 that the Russian Presidential Administration held a meeting on August 25 to approve the specific narratives that Russian media should promote in the information space.[33] The Russian narratives include claims that Ukraine is conducting mass mobilization regardless of age, gender, or health; claims that Ukraine’s Western partners are disappointed in Ukraine‘s prospects for victory; claims that the Ukrainian counteroffensive is failing; claims that the Ukrainian government is completely corrupt and is not fighting corruption and; claims that Russian authorities provide good living standards and conditions in occupied Ukraine.[34] Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko and Russian media representatives reportedly attended the meeting. ISW has observed all five false narratives in the Russian information space.[35

Anonymous sources have been quoted as saying...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...