How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CwfsDLFqZSx

Yet more high end Russian radar and EW equipment getting hammered by something with a CEP of about 3 meters.

[Jr Buck Private]

Some western reporter made a good point in that some Ukraine officials believe that after they get completely thru the first main defense line that the roads will be far less mined.   They believe that because they constantly see Russian trucks moving up along them from the second line to the first.   Obviously the roads must be clear there.   The roads leading from the starting point in the offensive to the first line were a different story, but then no Russians would have been worried about driving on them.   And they had several months to lay the mines too.   So hopefully they won't have as much time as they get pushed back.

[Eddy]

ISW not holding back. Full thread

Quote

U.S. military personnel are voicing their frustrations over the way Ukraine is conducting its counteroffensive. This is alarming, observes 
@TheStudyofWar

2/ American officers appear to have unrealistic expectations of what a single counteroffensive operation can achieve. The U.S. should be focused on helping Ukraine fight the war the way it wants to fight, not chirping from the sidelines

3/ American officials are reportedly irritated that Ukraine has kept large numbers of forces in its east, particularly around the town of Bakhmut, and that Ukraine has been pursuing multiple offensive thrusts within Zaporizhia oblast itself rather than focusing on only one.

4/ No one in the American military today has designed large-scale mechanized operations against a serious and capable enemy that is employing a comprehensive defense. The last time was the Metz campaign in France in 1944, led by Gen. George S. Patton.

5/ The massed attack toward Melitopol that some are demanding is the most obvious thing Ukraine could do and would concentrate Ukraine’s offensive combat power on a drive down the shortest road to the sea. This approach seems appealing and militarily sound.

6/ The trouble is that the Russians also had the same thought. They deployed the strongest of their remaining defending forces on this axis. They dug deep, extensive trench lines and covered the earth in mines.

7/ The Ukrainians have actually made a priority of this route and have recently made important gains. But they have also been attacking further east in Zaporizhia oblast and have made gains there as well.

8/ The effort that seems to aggravate American officials most of all, however, has been the Ukrainian push to recapture the city of Bakhmut, which the Wagner Group seized at tremendous cost this spring.

9/ U.S. military experts appear to want the Ukrainians to hold on all other fronts and focus on a single thrust toward Melitopol.

10/ Such advice is military malpractice. Well-designed mechanized campaigns almost always advance on multiple axes rather than one. That is what American-led coalitions did against Iraq in 1991 and 2003. It’s how the Americans, Germans, and Soviets fought in World War II.

11/ The reason is simple: Advancing along a single axis allows the defender to concentrate fully on stopping that one advance. Here, the Russians would almost certainly have moved forces from other parts of the theater as rapidly as they could to stop the drive on Melitopol.

12/ The Russians have redeployed forces to Zaporizhia. They haven’t sent more reinforcements, in part because Ukrainian attacks have pinned them all along the line.

13/ The much-condemned Ukrainian counteroffensive around Bakhmut has drawn elements of multiple Russian airborne divisions & separate brigades to hold the line there. Those units had been fighting in Luhansk & Kharkiv and would have been available to reinforce the Melitopol axis.

14/ The seizure of Melitopol on its own can’t win the war for Ukraine.

15/ The demands that Ukraine focus everything on that drive, combined with warnings that the West won’t restock Ukraine for future operations, suggest that at least some of those criticizing the Ukrainian offensive aren’t serious about helping Ukraine liberate all its territory.

16/ If that is the case, and if the Pentagon’s position is that it doesn’t expect Ukraine to liberate its people, it would be better to say so clearly than to make oblique and inaccurate attacks on the way Ukraine is fighting.

Apparently from this piece Let Ukraine Direct Its Own Counteroffensive - WSJ (I don't have a subscription) 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Eddy

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Eddy said:

ISW not holding back. Full thread

Apparently from this piece Let Ukraine Direct Its Own Counteroffensive - WSJ (I don't have a subscription) 

Give Ukraine the ability to deliver 500 JDAMs a day to a depth of three hundred kilometers, AND clear every Russian aircraft bigger than a small quadcopter out of Ukraine's skies, and the counteroffensive will move right along. In the absence of that Ukraine is prosecuting this the old hard way about as well as it possibly can. Parts of the Pentagon just can't wrap their heads around this.

Heck we can't even pull our heads out of our rear ends and manage to send some our new laser toys over for a test against drones in real world conditions. Because if they work we need thousands of them, and if they don't we need a new plan soonest.

Edited August 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/CwfsDLFqZSx

Yet more high end Russian radar and EW equipment getting hammered by something with a CEP of about 3 meters.

If somebody too lazy to open this link, here the same from twitter - UKR HIMARSed Russian rare over-the-horizon coastal radar Predel-E ($200 millions cost), which was covered by EW asset Leer-2 (SIGINT+radio comms supression) - it also got own missile. This happened in Zalizhyi Port town on seashore in Kherson oblast. 

Interesting, almost nothing about this radar in open sources except this photo. First time it was introduced on exhibition in 2019. It purpose tracking of vessels and low-altitude aircraft. Developer - Sitronics KT company, specialized on civil systems of coastal equipment. There is no this radar in their catalog. 

Next "fat" target today. HIMARS hit Russian ELINT and SIGINT security complex RB-636AM2 "Svet-KU" in Luhansk oblast

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That rings true. Not sure if every Ukrainian soldier receiving training feels this way but there is some truth to what this is saying.  Last time we trained for this sort of war would have been in the early 90s.  Last time anyone saw one like it would have been mid-late 90s.  Most western troops of the last 20 years are “unshelled” by this wars standards.  The Ukrainian recruits really need the old Cold War training we used to do but there are damned few left in service who remember it.  I am pretty sure western troops are swinging their training back towards peer conventional conflict but it is largely theoretical for western forces at this point.

Well, it is said that militaries tend to train “to fight the last war.” Unless a Country is planning to fight a “new” type of war, e.g. Germany rebuilding it’s forces for combined arms (infantry, air, and armor), the upper echelons of any military will tend to be very conservative in it’s thinking. The current leaders of the U.S.M.C. and USN have shown what I consider to be excellent foresight to determine that the next U.S. regional conflict as the South China Seas, and realigning the U.S.M.C. assets by divesting itself of it’s armor and long-range artillery. I applaud the foresight of the Commandant.

[L0ckAndL0ad]

On 8/26/2023 at 1:31 AM, Battlefront.com said:

I'm so VERY glad to see you post.  Even if it is just to say "Hello!".  As you can see from the responses, you have a lot of people here keeping you in their thoughts.  Stay safe.

Steve

Thank you and everyone else! I'm lurking around and read this juicy thread occasionally, but I've been self-isolating myself after coming back and don't communicate much at all. Reaching out to anyone is... hard, after everything that's happened, and when you know you are being watched/monitored. But sometimes I force myself to communicate, because that's what therapists recommend. I'm mostly using Telegram these days, and that's it.

I appreciate all the support.

On 8/27/2023 at 3:56 AM, The_Capt said:

I cannot express enough that I hope you are right.  And I totally respect your identity and citizenship.  If there is any justice left in the world Crimea will be liberated - let me be clear on all of that.

It is human: error, fear, biases, ignorance, hatred and greed that I point out as major concerns on post conflict…and not just for the Ukrainians themselves.  The conditions for things going badly and organized resistance/insurgency exist in Crimea and the Donbas.  They did before the 2014, they do now.  A major weakness of this thread is to put Ukrainians on an unfair pedestal.  The defence and retaking of their homeland is one for the history books but they are still human beings and are just as capable of losing the post-conflict bubble as anyone else.

The points of failure have already been outlined.  Loss of property, deportation, revenge killings/swift justice, collaborators.  All of that will be done within a very large population overseen by a Ukrainian military who is very pissed off.  An idea would be to bring in international security forces to assist but that comes with its own issues.

Regardless, I think this topic has been flogged enough.  I have provided my analysis and assessment, everyone can take it or leave it as they wish.  Hopefully it does get people thinking about post-war and the challenges we are likely going to face.

Thank you as well.

I've talked to a lot of people, with all kinds of opinions, of different ages and genders. Even almost got robbed by two orcs one time in broad daylight. Who knows? Maybe my opinion is just wishful thinking, because my brain simply needs something good to hope for. I've always tried to be as much realistic as possible, but, as you said, we're just humans.

On 8/27/2023 at 5:55 PM, Haiduk said:

Russian milblogger writes, Ukraine uses guided bombs JDAM of 230 and 960 kg of weight on Zaporizhzhia front. Our jets drop them from 40-75 km of range

Uhm. To drop a JDAM from that kind of range, it must either be powered, or the attack profile must be really really high. I guess that's gotta be Mk 82 turned into a missile package?

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Thank you and everyone else! I'm lurking around and read this juicy thread occasionally, but I've been self-isolating myself after coming back and don't communicate much at all. Reaching out to anyone is... hard, after everything that's happened, and when you know you are being watched/monitored. But sometimes I force myself to communicate, because that's what therapists recommend. I'm mostly using Telegram these days, and that's it.

I appreciate all the support.

Thank you as well.

I've talked to a lot of people, with all kinds of opinions, of different ages and genders. Even almost got robbed by two orcs one time in broad daylight. Who knows? Maybe my opinion is just wishful thinking, because my brain simply needs something good to hope for. I've always tried to be as much realistic as possible, but, as you said, we're just humans.

Uhm. To drop a JDAM from that kind of range, it must either be powered, or the attack profile must be really really high. I guess that's gotta be Mk 82 turned into a missile package?

Almost certainly JDAM-ER, or even some later successor munition to that. They are a great weapon system, but even if they have the munitions Ukraine just doesn't have enough airframes with the capability to deliver them to just blow entire sections of the Russian lines open.

Edited August 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Some about foot recon vs. drone recon %)

UKR and RUS squads suddenly encounters each other - initially both sides didn't recognize the enemy in opponemts (or Russians just didn't spot Ukrainians), but next UKR likely received a command from the drone,  opened fire and shot two or three Russians. I recall a story of soldier of 47th brigade, how in Germany US ranger instructors were too sceptical about UKR platoon-level drone recon experience and teach Ukrainians only foot recon. I wonder if US conducted only foot recon on tactical level, how much recons would left after a month of such battle like near Robotyne?

PS. I think in next CM generation such things like ID mistakes ad friendly fire have to be modelled on "iron" level.

 

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I wonder if US conducted only foot recon on tactical level, how much recons would left after a month of such battle like near Robotyne?

 

Pray God we will do a better job of learning the lessons of this war than that. I suspect. there is a lot of back and fourth in the U.S. military between units and officers that don't realize how much of their doctrine is obsolete. and units and officers that keep a running tally of how may drones their personal savings accounts could swing if it came down to deploying RIGHT NOW. Just to ensure they live long enough for reality to catch up with the procurement system.

While we are poking at the U.S. learning lessons can I re-up my question about a petal mine simulator? Do we have one, and are units asked to deal an entire field full of them , at least occasionally?

Edited August 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

but I am a wee bit wary that he has some filters that might be a little too rigid.

I recall 2014, when acting Minister of Defense Koval, who recently served in State Border Guard spoke strongly against idea of General Staff to maintain security area in 10-15 km from the border, deploying there troops and armor. Koval argued that in this case border guards can't acomplish own duties properly, so Army have to stand on the border together with them and also any step back even on 10-15 km from the border line will be met negatively by Ukrainians. Koval could find words to convince president Poroshenko in own rightness, so Poroshenko made political decision about deploying of troops on the border, which became fatal - Russians through almost a month shot out them with artillery and MLRS, as result several brigades lost own combat capabilities, because despite human losses were not so big, but units lost 60-70 % of own vehicles. Thus, "filter of border guard" led to catastrofical consequences.   

Edited August 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/28/ukraine-russia-red-lines-putin-biden/

Yet the administration still won’t provide ATACMS, citing fear of provoking Putin and claiming that there are too few in the U.S. arsenal. In fact, the U.S. Army has as many as 3,000 ATACMS; sending a few hundred to Ukraine won’t deplete U.S. defenses. “This is BS,” tweeted retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe. “If we don’t have enough, why haven’t we increased production? This is about a shortage of political will, not a shortage of ATACMS.”

 

Not mentioned i the fact that we have started low rate production on the much longer ranged SUCCESSOR to the ATACMS. And yes the contracts for it need to be increased but somewhere between a factor of ten and a hundred while the ATACMS get sent to Ukraine. Yet again we just dither about it for forever.

[dan/california]

 

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

Well, it is said that militaries tend to train “to fight the last war.” Unless a Country is planning to fight a “new” type of war, e.g. Germany rebuilding it’s forces for combined arms (infantry, air, and armor), the upper echelons of any military will tend to be very conservative in it’s thinking. The current leaders of the U.S.M.C. and USN have shown what I consider to be excellent foresight to determine that the next U.S. regional conflict as the South China Seas, and realigning the U.S.M.C. assets by divesting itself of it’s armor and long-range artillery. I applaud the foresight of the Commandant.

I agree in principle, but 

Quote

The Department of the Navy's latest proposed budget plans on buying 34 land attack Tomahawks for the Marine Corps next fiscal year. The Marines were allotted 13 Tomahawks this fiscal year and 48 Tomahawks in fiscal 2022.Jun 8, 2023

That is ten percent or less, maybe much less, of what is needed if we are fighting China anytime soon.

[dan/california]

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marine-corps-tomahawk-anti-ship-missiles/#:~:text=The Department of the Navy's,48 Tomahawks in fiscal 2022.

meant to put this in the above.

[dan/california]

To get back to Ukraine, The second one is interesting because I think there is a non zero chance it was a Russian faction that had a reason to want him gone if the job description is correct. The rest of the tweet explains he was in charge of an anti-corruption unit.

Edit: To quote The_Capt, "If you can get them shooting at each other, you are winning".

Edited August 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

One of Russian positions with bright AT-specialization was taken by UKR forces on Zaporizhzhia front. This is "Khorne group" footage (former "Immaterium"). Cameraman says there are a lot of abandoned RPGs in trench as well as ATGM Fagot. He also says a huge amont of trash around - typically for Russians 

https://twitter.com/small10space/status/1696194719888367689

Other footage from this sector - several UKR soldiers begin to assault Russian trench - after first shots and grenades, Russians, having numerical advantage, just run away

https://twitter.com/herooftheday10/status/1696179265694265628

Edited August 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Like "I have two news -  good and bad"...

We advanced for today to Verbove direction, but, alas, we have big losses

Edited August 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Letter from Prague]

18 Tomahawk is what, one salvo? Meanwhile Japan is planning to buy 400 of them for deterring China, according to recent Perun video.

I'm sure Ukraine would make a good use of few hundred too.

[Haiduk]

Since many of convicts were killed in Wagner and Shtorm Z, Russian authorities found new source of "meat" - these are migrants from Centarl Asia, which in huge mass have been settling in large Russian cities. Along with Caucasians they also establish own close communities and their number rised so much, that more and more happened conflicts between them and Slavic population. Slavic Russians very rare dare to withstand with Caucasians (especially Chechens and Dagestanians) because of they are very agressive, cruel and many of them are good fighters. But Tadjiks, Uzbeks, Kyrgyzians are more peaceful, so inituially Russians treated them arrogantly lilke dirty seravnts, who involved mosty in dirt unqualified work. But since "mid-asians" have becoming  more and more, they organized in own strong ethnic communities and now already they often dictate to Slavic Russians own order. In some cases Russian citizens already establishing "quarter guard" units, protecting their yards against agressive migrants, esapecially their youth.

So, Russian authorities now try to get rid of such migrants in order to defuse a situation - they try to force migrants, who already have Russian citizenship to enlist to Army as contractors or just mobilize them - police and military conduct raids, to put them on record in enlistment offices. Those, who are just seekers of Russian citizenship encountering with situation, when they get offer "enlist to army, then you will get citizenship". And surprisingly enough of migrants do this. 

 

     

Edited August 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Like "I have two news -  good and bad"...

We advanced for today to Verbove direction, but, alas, we have big losses

 

Quote

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9th_Armoured_Brigade_(United_Kingdom)

The Brigade was nominally independent, but was placed under command of the 2nd New Zealand Division specifically for the El Alamein battle. Following permission given by the New Zealanders, they proudly painted the Kiwis' divisional sign on their tanks.^[1] The NZ infantry gained their objectives, but as with Operation Lightfoot on the first day of the battle, lanes could not be cleared through the minefields until night was almost over. 9th Armoured Brigade was forced to make its attack silhouetted by the early daylight. As dawn came on 2 November, tank after tank was hit by the German 88 mm guns that kept firing through seven air attacks. The 9th never reached their objective. In fact, they took 75 percent casualties and lost 102 of their 128 tanks. Nevertheless, they breached the gun line and the 1st Armoured Division of X Corps, under the command of Raymond Briggs, was now able to engage.^{[citation needed]}

 

This unit paid in full for Montgomery's victory at El Alamein, but he made it count.

Hopefully the AFU has chosen their moment with equal judgment, and can make it pay off the same way.

Slava Ukraini

Heroyam Slava

Burn the orcs, BURN THEM ALL!

[akd]

2 hours ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Uhm. To drop a JDAM from that kind of range, it must either be powered, or the attack profile must be really really high. I guess that's gotta be Mk 82 turned into a missile package?

I believe JDAM-ER has been provided.

[Teufel]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Edit: To quote The_Capt, "If you can get them shooting at each other, you are winning".

Speaking of going after one and other, if true, the Russians can’t argue they are winning!

Edited August 28, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

Steve argued few pages back about half assed preparation of trenches and defenses. This trench be like knee deep in best case. Gras growing on the dugout so can’t argue didn’t have time to finish it before being assaulted, must been like this for months. I guess Russians will continue to amaze until the very end.

 

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Speaking of going after one and other, if true, the Russians can’t argue they are winning!

I am dying to know what happens to this officer. Does he beg to be exchanged immediately, does he beg not to be exchanged at all? If  he is exchanged is he punished or just sent back to the front? Is the whole we beat him up and tied him up thing just a ruse to protect his family? So many questions.

Edit: great news that the Russians are starting to surrender instead making Ukraine spend the ammo to kill them. 

Edited August 28, 2023 by dan/california

[Teufel]

Something is up in Crimea…we’ll be right back after the break. Stay tuned!

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Teufel