How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

I am always behind times on some topics, but these guys must have some utility on the battlefield. 

https://www.lowes.com/pd/Jackery-Jackery-Solar-Generator-290W-Portable-Power-Station-and-Solar-Saga-100W/5005381755?user=shopping&srsltid=AfmBOop31piP9y57jkDDqJfnYoFBAUTLcs0OrjInxZgpDjUCBl8QwtKDNhg

I have a entire house natural gas generator and thinking of buying a few anyway. 

 

[dan/california]

In short DPICM might be the difference between an ugly draw, and an outright Ukrainian victory.

Even found the whole thing for you

 

 

Quote

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/saving-taxpayer-money-and-bolstering-ukraines-defense-case-transferring-himars-rockets

Keep in mind the mine belt is literally kilometers deep in places. Either we get better at demining or vast swathes of Southern Ukraine will be a nature preserve with occasional fireworks for generations. 

[Fenris]

Some pretty intense footage of 59th OMBR attacking trench lines.  Youtube thinks it's russian so auto-gen subs aren't great.  One of the HUMVEE's hits a mine, I really hope the infantryman caught in the blast came out ok.

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Fenris

[Vanir Ausf B]

Ukraine needs more sappers.

_____

In an urgent appeal to allies, Oleksii Reznikov told the Guardian his soldiers were unearthing five mines for every square metre in places, laid by Russian troops to try to thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

He said the vast minefields could be traversed, but that it was critically important that allies “expand and expedite” the training already being provided by some nations, including Britain.

The number of sappers in the Ukrainian armed forces was nowhere near enough to get through the complex Russian defences on the vast 600-mile (1,000km) front, with mine clearing units targeted with heavy fire.

Serhiy Ryzhenko, the chief medical officer of the Mechnikov hospital in Dnipro, where many of the most seriously wounded are treated, said he was receiving between 50 and 100 soldiers a day, with mines being second to artillery as the cause of their injuries.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/13/ukraine-desperate-for-help-clearing-mines-says-defence-minister

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Keep in mind the mine belt is literally kilometers deep in places.

That's the problem. No one thinks that the UA has enough combat power or expertise to exploit engineering gains with a coordinated attack to roll up the RA on significant portions of the entrenched line. The more the UA attacks the more predictable their tactics become because they don't have the means to throw something new on to the battlefield. The entire free world is just waiting for the RA to crack. That's not a plan. The RA might be getting better and better at the defensive nature of this war each day. Oh, they are attacking in some sectors. Might be stupid. Might be a more of  plan than the west has. 

[paxromana]

5 hours ago, kraze said:

yep, but one of those (Yegor Smirnov) was ordered to be sent to the frontlines in another populist move and since he most definitely holds a rank of major I wonder how's that gonna go. No way he gets to order around a battalion or even a brigade as his rank demands. No way.

In Australia a Major Commands a Company ...

[Fenris]

I saw this clip on another twitter account earlier.  Interesting if it's real.  Is said to be comments from some RU aid workers who work in occupied parts of UKR.  It's apparent what they say goes against the official line.

Quote

Russian volunteers share that Ukrainians do not welcome them on occupied territories - they even try not to spend nights there for fear of not waking up.

How do we become brotherly nations again? - a voice behind the camera asks them. There's no way - Russian volunteers reply.

 

[Offshoot]

A sobering interview with members of the Da Vinci Wolves on the Kupyansk front, the recent loss of some of their more well-known fighters and victory talk by media and politicians. Very good closed captions.

 

[kevinkin]

Two handsome young people. Go get em. God Bless. But don't drop your nail files.

[Battlefront.com]

Bradley getting hit by something, stated as being a tank round.  The video shows how desolate a once vegetated area can become.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

More footage of Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in the Kazachi Lahery area:

Steve

[Offshoot]

Kadyrovites at it again:

Conflict arises between Kadyrov’s military and Dagestanis in Mykhailivka, which turns into a battle. The enemy loses 20 killed and over 40 wounded - https://ukranews.com/en/news/950061-conflict-arises-between-kadyrov-s-military-and-dagestanis-in-mykhailivka-which-turns-into-a-battle

 

Norway supplying anti-drone systems to Ukraine:

Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KONGSBERG) has signed a contract through the International Fund for Ukraine for the delivery of Counter Uncrewed Aerial Systems (C-UAS), which will be donated to Ukraine - https://www.kongsberg.com/kda/news/news-archive/2023/international-fund-for-ukraine-orders-multiple-c-uas-air-defence-systems-from-kongsberg/

[Bulletpoint]

6 hours ago, Offshoot said:

A sobering interview with members of the Da Vinci Wolves on the Kupyansk front, the recent loss of some of their more well-known fighters and victory talk by media and politicians. Very good closed captions.

 

Very interesting what the medic is saying at 10:15

"These victory stories demoralise us as a military"

[poesel]

Pictures of Tor-M1 having been hit by a M30A1 round (sorry for the format).

[Beleg85]

I may be wrong, but we probably have one of first recorded hits on Stryker (author suggest it may belong to 82nd brigade, elements of which may now fight near Robotyne). Lancet work, of course; effects unknown, but abrupt cut on this Russian video may suggest they were indeed not spectacular from muscovite standpoint.

 

[danfrodo]

19 hours ago, Splinty said:

One doesn't have to really aim to hit a group of relatively low flying and slow moving targets. All that is needed to degrade these types of attacks is to use lots of automatic fire in the general area of a group of these things. They would have to be pretty big to carry a fully loaded infantryman and his weapons systems. Yes, paratroop drops are extremely messy, but even airborne troopers weren't flying horizontally. And let's not forget the mass casualty events EVERY single airborne assault was. Even the successful ones like Normandy. Or to go from another direction, the helicopter borne air assaults of the Vietnam war.

Hey Splinty, I agree w your take. I am only thinking of using these in situations where they were gonna do something probably more dangerous -- like noisy rubber boats!  I would only consider using them in areas that were relatively safe, never into a hot drop zone -- you're right, that's suicide!  Just like you wouldn't assault a strongly held beach in rubber boats.

[Haiduk]

Some interesting details of known Russian video with atatck of T-90M and BMP-3 on Klichchiivka village and from where LNR unit got T-90M tanks.

Grey zone claimed Russians initially shelled dismounting zone with DPICM, then T-90M of 85th motor-rifle brigade of LNR and BMP-3 of 83rd air-assault brigade attacked the village (I think if they are air-assault, they should have BMD-4, not BMP-3, but well). 

I was intrigued that LNR unit got most modern Russian tanks. But why? What is a mistery unit, which appered only in this year? Since some time of researches I encounred an information, that origins of 85th brigade are in 3rd Army Corps. The corps, being formed in Autumn 2022 got T-90M. As I knew Russian 54th motor-rifle regiment of 6th motor-rifle division of 3rd AC, was disbanded and on its place was formed 85th motor-rifle brigade, which was included into 2nd Army Corps (LNR )of 8th CAA. 

I can't find informatin about destiny of 6th motor-rifle division (it had 10th tank regiment, 54th, 55th, 57th motor-rifle regiments). Last information I have found, in mid of January 2023 units of division were moved to Belarus for training. Maybe in this time 54th regiment was disbanded.

From other units of 3rd Army Corps to this time on 72nd motor-rifle brigade still in sight in Bakmut area. 10th tank regiment some time had been waging war near Avdiivka and suffered heavy losses.

 

Edited August 15, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I may be wrong, but we probably have one of first recorded hits on Stryker (author suggest it may belong to 82nd brigade, elements of which may now fight near Robotyne). Lancet work, of course; effects unknown, but abrupt cut on this Russian video may suggest they were indeed not spectacular from muscovite standpoint.

I don't think I've seen any footage of Strykers in combat at all!  The 82nd was only recently committed, IIRC, so that would explain it.  I think they only have enough to outfit one battalion.

The Lancets are proving to be of limited use against AFVs with ERA and/or slats.  For sure they cause damage (I bet the Stryker had at least 2 tires shredded at a minimum), but they don't seem capable of more than that.  Then you look at something like the Leo or an SPG without such protection and effective destruction is quite possible.

The solution, of course, is to arm Lancets with a tandem warhead.  I don't know if it is feasible with the vehicle as is (could have carrying capacity maxed out), but at the very least it would increase the costs over what they are now.

Steve

[sburke]

Russian ruble is now worth less than a penny, infuriating Vladimir Putin’s inner circle: ‘They’re laughing at us’ (yahoo.com)

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russian ruble is now worth less than a penny, infuriating Vladimir Putin’s inner circle: ‘They’re laughing at us’ (yahoo.com)

Directly related... Russia raises interest rates in an attempt to halt the Ruble's decline:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/15/world/russia-ukraine-news

"The country’s central bank raised interest rates 3.5 percentage points to stem rising prices and a weakening ruble. The move came after the national currency briefly fell below a key level with the U.S. dollar.

...

The move, taken at an emergency meeting, increased the benchmark interest rate by 3.5 percentage points, to 12 percent. It was the bank’s second attempt to cool down the economy in less than a month, after a one-point increase on July 21."

I don't think that's going to do the trick

Steve

Edited August 15, 2023 by Battlefront.com

[kevinkin]

https://www.aol.com/ukraine-war-live-putin-forces-135227602.html

• The Ukrainian government is set to build new fortifications and military infrastructure in northeast regions that border Russia and Belarus at a cost of nearly $35 million (£30 million), prime minister Denys Shmyhal has said.
• Putin and Kim Jong Un exchange letters pledging to develop ties
• Poland staged a massive military parade on Tuesday to showcase its state-of-the-art weapons and defence systems, as war rages in neighboring Ukraine.
• With an eye on the October elections in Poland, president Andrzej Duda, the chief commander of the armed forces, said in his opening speech that the protection of Poland’s eastern border is a key element of state policy.
• Latvia has recalled border guards from holidays on Tuesday to strengthen the patrol of its border with Belarus.

• Western pressure on Ukraine’s counteroffensive to achieve a “Hollywood”-style breakthrough against Russia’s forces is “unrealistic” and Kyiv’s allies must be prepared for the war to “drag on far longer” than they imagined, experts have said.
• Facing heavily fortified Russian defences, including vast minefields and heavy shelling during its summer counteroffensive, Ukraine has been forced to broaden its focus away from the front lines
• With rains expected to muddy the battlefield in areas of the south and east of the country – including Zaporizhzhia – as soon as September, the “odds are getting longer” on the “triumphant breakthrough” many in the West were hoping for, analysts have told The Independent. 
  
  No mention of who those analysts are but maybe it's time for a road trip. 

 

[kevinkin]

China et. al. licking it's chops at this yield curve. 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1116880/russia-annual-yield-of-government-bonds-by-maturity/#:~:text=The federal bonds are the most stable securities,maturity bonds had a yield of 11.79 percent.

[Vet 0369]

16 hours ago, paxromana said:

In Australia a Major Commands a Company ...

In the U.S., a Major is the Executive of a Battalion.

[pintere]

From telegram

https://t.me/pilotblog/6054

A drone captures the moment a Russian soldier pulls the pin on his own grenade in order to avoid capture by the Ukrainians (video is blurred out).

It‘s interesting how (compared to the Ukrainians) Russians are simultaneously more likely to desert and also more likely to commit suicide when all seems lost. This isn’t the first video I’ve seen of a Russian soldier self-deleting, but I haven’t heard of any Ukrainians doing this. 

Edited August 15, 2023 by pintere

[Haiduk]

Today's night wasn't lucky for UKR air defense. Russians could find some holes and hit multiple places in centarl and western Ukranie. 

Total 28 cruise missiles and 8 S-300 missiles were launched:

- 4 Kh-22 (no interceptions)

- 4 Kalibr from Russian figate near Yalta

- 20 Kh-101/555 from 11 Tu-95 and Tu-160 (total 16 Kh-101/555 and Kalibrs were intercepted)

- 8 S-300 missiles on targets in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro oblasts (no interceptions)

L'viv and around was struck by six missiles and only one was shot down. More that 40 private and residetial houses were damaged, 15 civilians were wounded 

In Lutsk Russian missiles hit bearing factory, belonged to Sweden SKF company. 3 employees were killed.

In Smila, Cherkasy oblast, two missiles hit territories of hospital and machine-building plant. No casualties, but the city remained without water for five days

Edited August 15, 2023 by Haiduk