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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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6 hours ago, kraze said:

Zelenskyy fired all the heads of the regional recruitment centers

South Korea had a similar recent military recruitment scandal. 137 people were indicted on orchestrated attempts to avoid military service. It included, not surprisingly, some very high profile celebrities. The only difference between Ukraine, S. Korea, and the US during the Vietnam war was the US never got around to charging any sons of the rich or corrupt officials that I can recall.

Edited by MikeyD
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1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

And Ukraine's situation is totally different. 

One of the reason's for Putin's attack is the Russian thought Ukraine was falling into the western sphere culturally. Note the recent change of the Xmas date to 12/25. So absent the attempted and failed preemptive military strike on Kiev, now this a punitive war on Ukraine since Russian can't move forward against the West. "If I can't have Ukraine I will destroy it." Meanwhile hardening internal support around the Kremlin. The playbook is old, but for some reason it confuses the west which results with hesitation. 

Edited by kevinkin
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2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Sure. And my point is that while this is correct for those countries, it is quite a limited set.

It's one example of one person in one place. As another example, could I be persuaded to enlist in a war (ie, the question that bloody map was supposedly answering) against;

Australia. Lol. No.

Canadia. No, eh.

UK. Not likely old chap.

France/Spain/BeNeLux/Germany. Nope

USA. Probably

Scandinavia. Lol - I'd probably help *them*

China. Yep

Russia. Yep

Indonesia. Lol. Yep.

Ukraine. Probably.

 

Ukraine are the good guys, in this war, at this time. And I support them in this war. But there remain a lot of issues with Ukraine, and I like to think I'd resist being forced to carry a Ukrainian passport.

Edited by JonS
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5 hours ago, poesel said:

Zelenskyy fired all the heads of the regional recruitment centers. @Haiduk - could you maybe comment on this?

 

And Pres. Z is going to immediately induct all of the ones who haven’t served into the Army so they can serve Ukraine while earning a soldier’s pay. I like that idea!

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5 hours ago, JonS said:

Right, what I mean is that there is an awful lot more Roman history after the Republican period ended, and almost all the defending of Rome (writ large) occurred in that latter period.

I'll give you the Punic Wars in the Republican period, but were they defensive?

Yes, of course they were.! Everyone knows that the best defensive is a good offense!

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Russian milbloggers about Ukrainian tactic on Zaporizhzhia front:

1. Ukrainians pulled to Orekhov direction [Robotyne from UKR point of view] many of EW assets. On my experience I can say here enemy's counteraction [of EW] is maximal. This is expressed in permanent counteraction to Russian communication assets and UAVs.

2. Big number of barrel and reactive artillery. The enemy doesn't feel "shell hunger". They pour forth generously. By my feelings - each five impact is claster munition.

3. The enemy actively use precision ammunition. As soon as they spot worthy target from usual UAV like "Furia", they try to hit it with Excalibur or HIMARS. They also don't spare HIMARSes - they became an integral part of counter-battery fire. This means, Ukrainians drastically reduced a time between spotting of target and it hitting by HIMARS [UKR experts assume that this happenmed also because now a main role of "long hand" for ammo dumps and deployment zones in deerp rear became to play Storm Shadows, so  this allowed to switch HIMARSes from these tasks to counter-battery fire]

4. FPV drones of the enemy fly in further and further beyond frontline. They  learned to hit moving targets on big distance from contact line. I think, that now is relatively safe to move only further than 10 km from contact line.

5. They actively use agriculture drones [means octocopters like R18 night bombers and similar] on Starlink. They effectively work at the night and it's hard to supress them with usual EW assets.

 Image

 

On this screen:

A battle ongoing. Up to 6 tanks of AFU attack. AFU actively use smoke screens for hiding of own maneuvers. All frontline in a smoke. 

Image

 

Edited by Haiduk
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9 hours ago, MikeyD said:

South Korea had a similar recent military recruitment scandal. 137 people were indicted on orchestrated attempts to avoid military service. It included, not surprisingly, some very high profile celebrities. The only difference between Ukraine, S. Korea, and the US during the Vietnam war was the US never got around to charging any sons of the rich or corrupt officials that I can recall.

@poesel

Problem of UKR corruption with mobilization is not only celebrities. Almost each, who has 3000- 5000-10000 $ depending on place and greed of enlistment office chiefs could avoid mobilization. More "legal" variant is to get false health certificate from military medical committee (VLK in UKR abbrievation) and after this enlistment office recognized you as "unfit for military service", you get "white ticket" and can legally go abroad. The same committees easily recognized "fit for service" soldiers after heavy wounds, when they deserve to be recognized as disabled.   

Other variant (used mostly by sons of rich people) - your rich daddy establishes some public association or charity fund with very patriotic name. This organisation lend assistance for some pennies, but the son officially gets a status of civil volunteer of this association and can avoid mobilisation. For additional payment through  the chain of "useful aquaintances" the son can be included by Oblast Military-Civil Administratin officilas into database of permission system "Way", which gives permissions for trevelling abroad for special categories of people who have "reservation" - deputies, top-officials, artists, journalists, sportsmen, civil volunteers, truckers etc.

Rarely you can "solve a problem" with enlistment office chief personally, giving them some money and can be free, but without a garentee. But this way mostly takes place in small towns. 

This is of course not all ways how to not be mobilized. You can cross the border illegally for 5000 $ in special hides in trucks or with pathfinders. Or try to cross the border on your own, but this is too risky - and your detaining by border guards is a good variant, because you can just drown in the river.

Oblast enlistment offices chiefs are just top of iceberg (or maybe even not a top). Many of chiefs on lower levels also have own income and must divide it with higer level. The separate hell is VLK. Soldiers and combat medics, which rised huge wave about needs of deep reforms in military medicine, which still in deep "sovok" told maybe in VLKs gathered most stupid, greed, impudent and mercyless doctors, which see on soldiers as on expendables in "best" traditions of Soviet army

So, if we check all these public, we can find not only Odesa oblast enlistment office chief had villa in Spain and huge park of luxury cars...  

Edited by Haiduk
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13 hours ago, kraze said:

Can give you my take. Internal populist move designed to outshine a bunch of recent scandals.

It's illegal to fire someone without a cause, especially when these firings are ordered to be made by a person with no jurisdiction (Zaluzhnyy) because we have special committees that can do that legally - and amplified by corrupt courts those heads are getting restored to their workplaces in a month tops.

Move along.

This is just "the art of headline". Decision was made by National Security Council. Zelenskiy as a Supreme Comamnder has a right now due to this decision to make a directive for Ground Forces chief Syrskiy (who by the law is responsible for work of enlistment offices) and he by own order can fire these chiefs. But I mostly agree about populism. These people has high officer ranks - majors, lt.colonels, colonels. Nobody has a right to reduce them to privates and send in trenches. If they "clean" after investigation, they can be directed in some warm place in HQ, where they will fu...k field comamnders for keeping of Soviet-time journals piles. If such "valuable cadres", which forever stuck in USSR times will led a battalion this can led to the same tragedy as assault of 7th company of 116th mech.brigade on 27th of July near Robotyne. All company to this time considers itself as MIA.    

Edited by Haiduk
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Russian TG reported that UKR diversion group attacked again Russian convoy in deep rear near Razdolne village (14 km SE  from Nova Kakhovka)

Image

Russian member of LostArmor community, Vein, told that motor-rifle regiment of Territorial Troops, guarded Kozachi Laheri area hadn't even PKM machine guns.

Major Tomov and his survived recons in Ukrainan captivity, after UKR operation near Kozachi Laheri

Image

Tomov is drawing a scheme of Russian positions on left bank of Dnipro

 

Edited by Haiduk
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5 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Alas, Russian milblogger wrote today, both BMPT and T-80 got light damages and will be repaired soon. But even on the video you can see most of drones hit in non-critical zones or even missed.

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Two days ago in small sea-shore town Urzuf on Azov sea, drunken Kadyrov's fighter of some numerous "Akhmat" units had a conflict with local military commandant office and shot out two Russian soldiers. After this he opened fire at civilians, who where unlucky to turn out themeselves in wrong place at wrong time - five more people were killed.

Afther this, as claimed on the screen, "Akmat" fighters arrived to military commandant office and threaten by weapon prohibited to them and local police to make any investigation of this incident. They took own fighter with you and reportedly he already left territory of Ukraine back to Chechya. Local administration and police scared and answered to relatives of killed civilians they can do nothing "because you understand all perfectly", but we can give you some stew as humanitarian aid

Image

 Aftermath of shooting - two dead soldiers in cars

 

 

Edited by Haiduk
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32 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Not sure if this is recent but how much irreparabel damage can these tungsten balls really do to an engine?

While a BB sized object would have difficulty penetrating a block, it would have no trouble puncturing everything else in an engine compartment- think radiators, hoses, electronics, fans and such. Nothing that can't be fixed but more than enough to knock a vehicle out of service for a solid bit.

Repairable, yes, but repairs take up time and resources. And now there are fewer trucks to ship those resources to the frontline.

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52 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Not sure if this is recent but how much irreparabel damage can these tungsten balls really do to an engine? The drivers surely didnt appreciate them but they are easily replaced

 

 

Valve covers, oil pans, fuel tanks, batteries, and a lot of other bits really don't appreciate small holes being punched in them

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