How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MSBoxer]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Valve covers, oil pans, fuel tanks, batteries, and a lot of other bits really don't appreciate small holes being punched in them

It doesn't matter how good the engine is if the tires are shredded.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

As others have pointed out, there will be holes in EVERYTHING. Not just engine parts.

Holes in your wheels, brake discs, suspension, chassis, fuel system, axel, electronics. Pretty much everything is buggered.

 

There was footage, not long after GMLRS was introduced, of a Russian maintenance and repair dude going over a Ural that was exposed to tungsten rain. And boy, did he have an opinion on his superiors asking him to fix it.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Elmar Bijlsma

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Two days ago in small sea-shore town Urzuf on Azov sea, drunken Kadyrov's fighter of some numerous "Akhmat" units had a conflict with local military commandant office and shot out two Russian soldiers. After this he opened fire at civilians, who where unlucky to turn out themeselves in wrong place at wrong time - five more people were killed.

Afther this, as claimed on the screen, "Akmat" fighters arrived to military commandant office and threaten by weapon prohibited to them and local police to make any investigation of this incident. They took own fighter with you and reportedly he already left territory of Ukraine back to Chechya. Local administration and police scared and answered to relatives of killed civilians they can do nothing "because you understand all perfectly", but we can give you some stew as humanitarian aid

This story, if true,  is russkiy mir in a miniature- only thing lacking in it is vodka. "Because you understand it all perfectly, citizen..."  . Still amazing that anybody is willing to fight for it.

Russians attacking Klishchivka again in coordinated attack.

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

There was footage, not long after GMLRS was introduced, of a Russian maintenance and repair dude going over a Ural that was exposed to tungsten rain. And boy, did he have an opinion on his superiors asking him to fix it.

Exactly this.  I vividly remember that Russian video.  EVERYTHING about the example truck was compromised.  Even the leaf springs were damaged beyond use.  The frame also looked like Swiss cheese.  Technically the frame could still be used, but under full weight and road shock it would likely fail.  There is no way to repair such damage.  Certainly not economically.  Easier and cheaper to build a brand new one because that's basically what has to happen.

So these vehicles are not only PERMANENTLY out of service, but they are also not useful for much in the way of parts either.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, kluge said:

While a BB sized object would have difficulty penetrating a block, it would have no trouble puncturing everything else in an engine compartment- think radiators, hoses, electronics, fans and such. Nothing that can't be fixed but more than enough to knock a vehicle out of service for a solid bit.

Repairable, yes, but repairs take up time and resources. And now there are fewer trucks to ship those resources to the frontline.

It all depends on the velocity and mass of the fragment when it hits that cast iron block. Cast iron is not particularly resistant to penetration, especially small fragments of a very dense metal that is traveling at a very high velocity after being ejected by the explosive power of a HIMARS. I remember when I used a cast iron fry pan for target practice, set on edge at 100 yards using a 30-06 1956 Czech Mauser K95. I put eight rounds of 30-06 “silver tip” hunting rounds (not even full jacketed) completely through it without knocking it over. Don’t judge by size, judge by impact energy, and cast iron isn’t very resistant to impact energy.

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

This story, if true,  is russkiy mir in a miniature- only thing lacking in it is vodka. "Because you understand it all perfectly, citizen..."  . Still amazing that anybody is willing to fight for it.

Russians attacking Klishchivka again in coordinated attack.

 

Thanks!  Good and effective tactic for advancing, both in theory and from looking at this video.  Tank in the middle riding point fires at specific targets with the main gun, two BMPs (either BMP-2 or 3, bit not 1) on the flanks putting out high rates of fire on possible enemy positions.  Get close to the first line of buildings, stop long enough to drop off infantry, pop some smoke, then withdraw while conducting more suppressive fire.

Javelin, TOW, Stugna, etc. would defeat such a tactic as the gunners could likely pop one or all three of the vehicles before they were able to effectively engage the defenses.  Other AT weapons, such NLAW and LATW, would be under fire before they could effectively engage the shooters.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

It all depends on the velocity and mass of the fragment when it hits that cast iron block. Cast iron is not particularly resistant to penetration, especially small fragments of a very dense metal that is traveling at a very high velocity after being ejected by the explosive power of a HIMARS. I remember when I used a cast iron fry pan for target practice, set on edge at 100 yards using a 30-06 1956 Czech Mauser K95. I put eight rounds of 30-06 “silver tip” hunting rounds (not even full jacketed) completely through it without knocking it over. Don’t judge by size, judge by impact energy, and cast iron isn’t very resistant to impact energy.

Yup, and the thing is a small hole is easily missed and the component (engine block, radiator, fuel tank, brake line, etc) will malfunction because of it.  The amount of time it would take to strip a vehicle down to its component pieces, check each one, repair/replace those with damage, then reassemble is just not worth doing.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian TG "Archangel of Spetsnaz" claims Russians recaptured Urozhaine back, but let's see - they claimed the same with Staromajorske and this turned out a lie.

Edited August 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Problem of UKR corruption with mobilization is not only celebrities.

During the Vietnam War the US implemented many ways for people to avoid being conscripted without having to bribe anybody.  The easiest one was to enroll in higher education (University/College).  As long as you were in school you could not be drafted.  Why spend money illegally bribing Sgt. Recruiter when you could legally avoid service AND get an education?  Another way was to enroll in alternative military service, such as the National Guard or the Coast Guard.  I expect the same was true for other Federal services, such as border protection (not entirely sure about that).  Not only did you not need to bribe someone, but you also got paid for avoiding service.  The other way was to bribe a doctor into deeming you unfit for military service.  The US had two Presidents that avoided Vietnam using these options, but of course many others did as well.

Steve

[Teufel]

9 hours ago, Hapless said:

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

 

36 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG "Archangel of Spetsnaz" claims Russians recaptured Urozhaine back, but let's see - they claimed the same with Staromajorske and this turned out a lie.

Sounds about right, the Storm-Z troops running away under fire from Urozhaine in videos that Hapless posted. They got punished and forced to return back to take back what they lost. Sorry, what they ran away from. “Out of the frying pan, into the fire”.

I actually hope they went back to be surrounded and killed at will, just as they were for the past two weeks. Unfortunately, I don’t think we are that lucky, thus Urozhaine remains Ukrainian.

[kevinkin]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The easiest one was to enroll in higher education (University/College).  As long as you were in school you could not be drafted.  Why spend money illegally bribing Sgt. Recruiter when you could legally avoid service AND get an education?  Another way was to enroll in alternative military service, such as the National Guard or the Coast Guard.

Yep, get and stay into a state university and don't flunk out. Then join the national guard if you needed a job after 4 years and a masters or PhD were out of question. However, a lot of strings were pulled along the way especially related to grades and not flunking out. When one psych 101 teacher was in the way, a lot of stuff happens. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by kevinkin

[poesel]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

@poesel

Problem of UKR corruption with mobilization is not only celebrities.

...

Thanks for the explanation.

Do you think that Ukraine is really trying to reduce corruption in earnest?
During war, corruption usually flourishes because so many things are running out of normal bounds. This makes it twice as difficult to fight. OTOH, the government can be a bit more drastic with the punishments.

[sburke]

Russian media: Massive fire breaks out at warehouse near Moscow (yahoo.com)

[Kinophile]

 

Interesting thread on Taurus advantage over Scalp etc 

[Kinophile]

 

Interesting thread on Taurus advantage over Scalp etc 

[kevinkin]

Developments like this play into the west's strength: 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russians-board-ukraine-bound-ship

The problem is Russia is a fly and knows how be just annoying enough. But NATO can't bring themselves to kill the fly and the maggots they continue to reproduce. Maneuver warfare would suggest to take this war out the mud and fox holes and funnel it toward western domination in naval and air assets. The Black Sea should be NATO lake given the deaths of Ukrainians at this point. 

Edited August 14, 2023 by kevinkin

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

During the Vietnam War the US implemented many ways for people to avoid being conscripted without having to bribe anybody.  The easiest one was to enroll in higher education (University/College).  As long as you were in school you could not be drafted.  Why spend money illegally bribing Sgt. Recruiter when you could legally avoid service AND get an education?  Another way was to enroll in alternative military service, such as the National Guard or the Coast Guard.  I expect the same was true for other Federal services, such as border protection (not entirely sure about that).  Not only did you not need to bribe someone, but you also got paid for avoiding service.  The other way was to bribe a doctor into deeming you unfit for military service.  The US had two Presidents that avoided Vietnam using these options, but of course many others did as well.

Steve

Ok, I think this is a a pretty common misconception. Yes, there was a smaller chance that Guardsmen both Army National Guard (ANG) and Air National Guard being activated and sent to Vietnam, it wasn’t a sure thing. The Air National Guard actually mobilized 11 units on January 25, 1968, a week before the Tet Offensive. Three more ANG units were mobilized on May 13. ANG units deployed to Vietnam and South Korea. Also on May 13, 34 Army National Guard units were mobilized, with many of their 12,234 members levied to active-duty units. Eight Army Guard units deployed intact to Vietnam, with the first arriving in August of 1968. That was just a few of the deployments.

There were other, less sure ways to avoid being sent to Vietnam, but it came down to being in the “right place at the right time.” Personal example; in 1969, I enlisted just before High School graduation, in the Marine Corps for four years (with an Aviation Guaranty as I had passed the entry tests with a high enough score) so I wouldn’t be drafted into the Army Infantry for two years which would have guaranteed being sent to Vietnam. In Recruit Training at Paris Island, S.C., my general college test scores were high enough to qualify for Aviation and for Marine Officer Candidate School. When I was offered OCS (without aviation) and a two-year extension of active duty (six years), I weighted my options and remained enlisted because I felt sure that I would graduate as a Second Lt. Rifle Platoon Leader and be sent straight to Vietnam, do not pass go, do not collect $200. When I was sent to Fleet Marine Corps, Western Pacific, I received orders in Okinawa. We were in a long line to receive orders and the orders were Chu Lai for about five sets, but mine were for Iwakuni , Japan. Our Phantoms were F-4 J models that were too new to be allowed to deploy to a war zone, so we never were. I simply lucked out on that one even though I tried to transfer to Chu Lai, but didn’t succeed because they stopped split tours.
I personally take exception to the concept that joining an “alternative” Service of any type was done simply to avoid being sent to Vietnam. Anyone could join the Guard if they tested high enough. So the politicians who spouted the “he joined the Guard to avoid Vietnam” were just spouting BS.

For what it’s worth, I actually researched the history of the region, and our involvement there, and will completely agree that the whole thing was a complete travesty and lie fostered by our top politicians.

Sorry for the wall of text Steve, but those types of “observations” tend to infuriate me.

[Fenris]

Report with some good vision of the UKR produced 155mm Bohdana that was recently introduced to service. No subs on the clip yet unfortunately.

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Fenris

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Ok, I think this is a a pretty common misconception. Yes, there was a smaller chance that Guardsmen both Army National Guard (ANG) and Air National Guard being activated and sent to Vietnam, it wasn’t a sure thing.

....

For what it’s worth, I actually researched the history of the region, and our involvement there, and will completely agree that the whole thing was a complete travesty and lie fostered by our top politicians.

Sorry for the wall of text Steve, but those types of “observations” tend to infuriate me.

Well, that's what happens when one tries to make a quick point without going off topic

Yes, for sure NG members served in Vietnam.  And absolutely not everybody signing up for NG did so to avoid going to Vietnam.  However, NG service was used as a way to avoid getting drafted, which generally meant deployment to Vietnam during the later years.  Unlike the active military branches, the NG is directly controlled by each state unless and until activated.  There's a lot of avenues for the well connected to exploit that do not exist with the active services in the event that the person in question was at risk of being deployed to Vietnam.

In any case, my point was (and still is) that the US has a tradition of avoiding illicit corruption by making it legal. For example, it is illegal to bribe a politician, but it is legal to start up a Super PAC, donate millions to it, and make sure the candidate knows where the money came from.  No need to do an illicit bribe when it can be done legally with a few bits of paperwork.  The education exemption for Vietnam was clearly designed to benefit the middle and upper classes since, at the time, they disproportionally represented those in higher education.  The corruption was done right out in the open.  People being openly critical of Ukraine's more traditional forms of corruption should keep this in mind before throwing stones.

And this is how we stray off topic

Steve

[Fenris]

14 hours ago, Kraft said:

Not sure if this is recent but how much irreparabel damage can these tungsten balls really do to an engine? The drivers surely didnt appreciate them but they are easily replaced

 

 

 

Was watching this time lapse and I wondered if it would be worth hitting all the repair equipment on the Kerch bridge with a couple of these missiles to slow down the repair process.  Too difficult or not worth the trouble/there are better targets?  Edit - answered my own question, it's not in range yet.

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Fenris

[danfrodo]

18 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

This story, if true,  is russkiy mir in a miniature- only thing lacking in it is vodka. "Because you understand it all perfectly, citizen..."  . Still amazing that anybody is willing to fight for it.

Russians attacking Klishchivka again in coordinated attack.

 

This looks like a successful attack by RU, which is sad to say.  As mentioned above, not sure is any troops dropped off.  I thought there was high ground overlooking this area but I guess no one w an ATGM or javelin had observation.  I suspect if RU tries this again it will get a nasty surprise, but probably will do same thing in some other area.  

The only positive here is that RU showed that there's a path through that field that's unmined.

[Carolus]

Recently read an (older) article by a British ex-military who wrote about APCs and IFVs. William F. Owen. I have no idea what his credibility is.

I'll link below, but the gist is: According to him the IFV is an awkward compromise between mobility, protection, firepower and transport capacity.

He argues it makes more sense to focus on dedicated armored transports - the classic battle taxi - which drop firepower for an improvement in troop protection and capacity.

We often see Ukraine using MRAPs and similarly lighter vehicles for quick raids, firing at trenches, dismounting troops and zooming away if they fear that something heavy is aiming their way.

We also saw some conversions of T-series tanks into heavier transport, with the main turret removed. Does this indicate there is something to it?

Would it make sense to have a transport which has at most a GMG and smoke launchers, but might be able to shrug off a smaller tandem-warhead while transporting 8 to 10 men to the enemy trench, and leave the fire support to e.g. a Wiesel 1 sized UGV with a HMG or an AGM that stays behind?

Or does that unnecessarily complicate logistics and maintenance due to the different vehicle types? Same chassis as base? 

https://www.tjomo.com/article/wrong-technology-for-the-wrong-tactics-the-infantry-fighting-vehicle/

 

Edited August 14, 2023 by Carolus
correction

[Carolus]

I present the new way to avoid minefields. 

Only float a foot above ground, drop down before entering the enemy trench, the belt system remains with the drone. Once the human weight drops, the drone goes to ground as an escape route if the raid goes awry or can be used as a resupply system. Either AI supported flight or remote controlled.

Yes yes, it is fanciful and dangerous. But since a lot of Russians seem to stay in their dugout after a barrage or even during an assault, it might not be much worse than driving right up with a BMP 1 and hoping no one has an RPG 7.

[cesmonkey]

Russian telegrammer says decision to evacuate Urozhaine (Harvest) was completed successfully:

https://t.me/voin_dv/4387
 

Quote

So, last night the news came that our forces were withdrawing from Harvest. Marines of the Pacific Fleet covered the retreat. In particular, the guardsmen from the 40th Marine Brigade report that they shattered the enemy reconnaissance group, which decided to check whether the village was already empty or not. Losses during the withdrawal are reported to be minimal. Information is being clarified on the units of the 155th, which closed the process and began to be delayed in the last line, already in the morning.

https://t.me/voin_dv/4390
 

Quote

We were able to talk in more detail with the participants in the defense of Urozhaynoye from the 40th Marine Brigade, who had just established a more or less stable connection, and restore the chronology of the last days in Urozhaynoye.

The units of the brigade pulled out of the village after Storm-Z on the night of August 12-13, and in the morning the task was to prepare to return back and reinforce the positions held by the 155th brigade (there is no information on other units, but not because they was not there, but because the source itself literally says that he does not see the whole picture). By the afternoon of August 13, the command, apparently, decided to start an organized withdrawal, and in the evening the 40th brigade covered the exit of the 155th, which then replaced its Pacific colleagues and retreated to the last line.

None"we don’t see the gypsy cunning in the words of our colleagues, because from our positions we don’t know the whole plan and goals. Let’s leave this topic for discussion by experts from evening TV shows.

We continue to monitor the situation
 

 

[dan/california]

57 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Recently read an (older) article by a British ex-military who wrote about APCs and IFVs. William F. Owen. I have no idea what his credibility is.

I'll link below, but the gist is: According to him the IFV is an awkward compromise between mobility, protection, firepower and transport capacity.

He argues it makes more sense to focus on dedicated armored transports - the classic battle taxi - which drop firepower for an improvement in troop protection and capacity.

We often see Ukraine using MRAPs and similarly lighter vehicles for quick raids, firing at trenches, dismounting troops and zooming away if they fear that something heavy is aiming their way.

We also saw some conversions of T-series tanks into heavier transport, with the main turret removed. Does this indicate there is something to it?

Would it make sense to have a transport which has at most a GMG and smoke launchers, but might be able to shrug off a smaller tandem-warhead while transporting 8 to 10 men to the enemy trench, and leave the fire support to e.g. a Wiesel 1 sized UGV with a HMG or an AGM that stays behind?

Or does that unnecessarily complicate logistics and maintenance due to the different vehicle types? Same chassis as base? 

https://www.tjomo.com/article/wrong-technology-for-the-wrong-tactics-the-infantry-fighting-vehicle/

 

This is exactly the kind of question the next version of the game needs to explore. Steve could you finally throw us a bone or two on the hopefully not mythical, hopefully doesn't require a security clearance, next game? It might kick things out of the August doldrums around here. Of course you might be on vacation and want to put that off until after Sept 1.