How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Maciej Zwolinski]

39 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to UKR rumors, Western equipment was employed to draw RU attention and persuade them that it was the main thing.

That is interesting. Polish bloggers spread similar rumours, and additionally, are hinting at a completely new attack direction possibly materialising in a few days. In oher words, the good stuff at Orikhiv direction was not supposed to draw RUS attention away from the Velykaya Novosilka direction, but those two directions both are covers for the real attack.Any rumours like that on your side? 

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Prominent Russian Telegram channels and military correspondents had a meeting with Putin. This indicates that he seeks alternative sources of information on the war, apart from his intelligence and military commanders. Some of these correspondents have been openly critical of Russian generals.

Is that why Girkin is having a Putin meltdown today? Because he was not invited?

[Grigb]

On 6/12/2023 at 2:48 PM, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think this is genuine.

First of all, I think a real blocking detachment would start by shouting to stop, then fire in the air, and only then fire at the fleeing troops. Their purpose is to stop troops fleeing, not to kill them if they don't have to.

But ok, even if they are extremely cruel and incompetent, they would likely not rush towards them and push them over and only then shoot them while on the ground or while they are running back to the front lines. If they wanted to shoot them, they could do so from a distance.

Also, the way the guys fall over even after being "shot". A real person shot dead falls over like a log. Both of those guys stick out their hands to cushion the fall. And there is only one muzzle flash but both of them fall down.

(Do rifles even make that kind of muzzle flash? I don't remember seeing it on other daylight videos...)

I could be wrong of course, but to me it doesn't seem right.

I believe it is real.

1. By hand gestures I saw the moment when they yell "Stop!"
2. I can see where they shot in the air 
3. The goal of killing some of the troops is to intimidate the others, even those who have not yet fled. It's really how it's done - when an RU soldier panics, you either beat him up or shoot him. Nothing else will suffice. 
4. During executions, don't expect cool and rational behavior. RU officers typically experience a pain from severe shame and intense anger at the soldiers. As a result, they rarely act logically. More often than not, they rush to troops to beat them, but it appears that on this occasion, the soldiers' condition was so bad that RU officers decided to simply shoot some of them. Just another day in RU army at war. 

So I can't say for sure, but based on what I've seen, it appears to be real. The only thing is that I think these are zeks (not Wagnerites, but RU MOD Storm troops). They run at the beginning in a manner similar to how zeks run (due to their poor health).

[dan/california]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So wouldn't that still be a defensive blocking exercise?  I mean unless you are talking about advancing minefields to take ground...now that is an interesting idea, offensive denial.

Mobile mines would be really , really bad, now how about mobile mines with IFF. They play little patriotic ditties as friendly forces drive right thru. The possibilities go on forever, and they are coming to a battlefield near you very soon. Then there are other neat tricks like not activating the field until an entire enemy column is stuck in. And on, and on.

Edit: Some of this wouldn't take much more than sticking a cell phone on that nifty German off route mine the Ukrainians have been using. All but guarantee AFU/Rheimetal has team working on this.

Edited June 13, 2023 by dan/california

[Centurian52]

17 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I'm gonna on record and say 6.8x51mm is fine for dmr, but is a bad idea and won't happen for your standard infantry rifle or squad mg for a bunch of reasons:

• Barrel life is going to suck, horribly. SIG claims 12k rounds; that's overly optimistic, 2k is more likely
• The round is heavier, so less ammunition carried per soldier
• The round suppresses less well, which makes it unsuitable for general purpose combat, which includes CQB and shooting from vehicles
• Recoil is higher

I think a more promising direction for small arms is going further in the direction of smart munitions- heat seeking grenade/drones, 40mm grenades that can be guided by drone, miniature missiles/drones where a soldier can carry a bunch of these, and they can seek out enemies behind cover at distances of 5m to 5km.

The XM7 and XM250 have already entered service, first batch of both to be delivered late this year. It's happening.

So the decision has already been made. For my part I go back and forth on whether it was the right decision, but it's worth understanding the arguments for it. I may be covering some ground that you already know, but I think it's worth covering in order to fully spell out the arguments for this cartridge (plus this might be new information to someone else).

We are going back to the old argument of which is better, full power cartridges (normal rifle cartridge by WW2 standards (something like 7.92x57 Mauser, NATO 7.62x54, or Soviet 7.62x59)) or intermediate cartridges (intermediate between a full rifle cartridge and a pistol cartridge, something like 7.92x33 Kurz, NATO 5.56x45, or Soviet 7.62x39 or 5.45x39)*.

A full power rifle cartridge was the default rifle cartridge up until WW2. It has better penetration and a longer maximum range than an intermediate cartridge. The downsides are that it is larger and heavier, so you can't carry as many rounds, and it has more recoil, so is not controllable in full-auto for a small shoulder-fired weapon.

An intermediate cartridge is smaller, so you can carry a lot more ammo, and has a softer recoil, so is controllable in full-auto for a small shoulder-fired weapon. But has a reduced maximum range and inferior penetration.

The argument for switching to intermediate cartridges in the first place was basically that while full power cartridges may have a longer maximum range in theory, both intermediate and full power cartridges have identical effective ranges. Because telescopic sights were not universal, the effective range of a rifle was limited by the limits of unaided human eyesight, not by the ballistic properties of its cartridge. In addition, body armor wasn't really a thing back when the decision to switch to intermediate cartridges was made. So penetration meant barrier penetration, not armor penetration. A higher percentage of tree trunks will be thick enough to stop an intermediate round, but any soldier who is actually hit by an intermediate round is as sure to be a casualty as if they were hit by a full power round. By switching to an intermediate cartridge we gained the advantages of greater ammo capacity and controllable full auto, for absolutely no cost in effective range, and an acceptable cost in penetration.

But the dynamics have shifted since that decision was made. Every soldier today has body armor, and every soldier today (in most armies) has an optic on their rifle. Optics on every single rifle means that the reduced maximum range of an intermediate cartridge, which was only a theoretical cost 60 years ago, is now a real cost. And because body armor is universal, penetration now refers to both barrier penetration and armor penetration. A hit on an enemy soldier with one type of cartridge is no longer equally likely to produce a casualty as a hit with the other type of cartridge.

Do those changes mean that a full power cartridge is now superior? No, not necessarily. But it does mean that we need to re-asses. I think that 60 years ago there was no reasonable case for a full power cartridge, while today it may be a much harder choice. It seems that the US DoD has made their assessment and decided in favor of switching back to a full power cartridge. The switch from the M4 to the XM7 (presumably just M7 now that it's no longer experimental?) was explicitly meant to penetrate body armor, and to allow riflemen to take full advantage of their optics to achieve a longer effective range (about an 800 meter effective range, so I've heard). We may not know until the next war whether or not it was the right decision.

*As a side note you might notice two distinct generations of intermediate cartridges. The first generation only shortens the cartridge, but retains the same caliber as its full-power equivalent (7.92x33 and 7.62x39). The second generation both shortens the round and reduces the caliber (5.56x45, 5.45x39).

[Harmon Rabb]

Warning: this clip is loud.

Illia did not say, but another person that I follow on Twitter said this was filmed recently in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[sburke]

lol c'mon guys, start a new thread on what rounds size is best and stopping power.  The UA isn't using those.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And now we are at Defensive-Denial primacy.  It is much easier for a UGV minefield to shift to close a gap than it is for offensive AI to find, fix and finish UGVs hiding underground.

They’ll be noisy burrowing about.  I’ll train waterfowl to root them out like worms.  And define a low “no creep zone” barrier with death ray lasers that will slice them up as they try to enter the zone.  Just have to remind the guys on the ground not to cross it either if they want to keep their feet attached to their legs.

[sburke]

Russia comes up with new ways to cover up its losses in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

Upon a request from the Russian Defence Ministry, the government of the Republic of Khakassia, a federal subject of the Russian Federation, has ceased publishing obituaries concerning soldiers killed in Ukraine to diminish the Russian army’s death count.

Source: Sibir.Realii (Siberia Reality), a Radio Liberty project, citing sources in the Khakassian government

Details: A source told journalists that the Khakassian government’s press service no longer publishes information about soldiers and Wagner Group mercenaries killed in Ukraine because independent Russia media are using this information to establish the Russian army’s death count.

On 26 April 2023, the Khakassian government published the last obituary for a soldier killed in Ukraine – Dmitry Ivanov, a Supreme Council representative who fought with the Wagner Group near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine.

There is a large discrepancy between open-source data and the information provided by the Russian Defence Ministry, which has not disclosed Russia’s total losses since September 2022. At the time, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that only 5,937 Russian soldiers had been killed in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, BBC Russia and Mediazona journalists reported, based on open-source data, that over 25,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. Journalists believe that the most conservative estimates of Russia’s losses in Ukraine indicate 50,000 soldiers had been killed, while the total number of military personnel who can no longer fight due to injury or who have been killed is at least 225,000.

 

[sburke]

8 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Not surprising. Where on earth could they find enough 25mm, 105mm, and 120mm ext. for the hundreds and hundreds of IFVs and MBTs other than the stockpiles of Depleted Uranium shell in the US and elsewhere.

Also, the 105mm guns are going to seriously need these shells in terms of penetration. 

The US is sending depleted-uranium ammo to Ukraine capable of piercing Russian tank armour, report says (yahoo.com)

The US is set to approve depleted-uranium tank shells for Ukraine, the WSJ said.

The shells are capable of blowing up Russian tank armor.

There were doubts over providing the shells for environmental and health reasons.

The US is sending depleted-uranium shells to Ukraine that are capable of penetrating Russian tank armor, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

For several months the Biden administration has been debating whether to provide the shells to Ukraine following concerns over their environmental and health impacts, the outlet reported.

But an administration official said that there were now no major obstacles to providing the ammunition.

[Vanir Ausf B]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Also allow me to add that a BIG part of the failure of this attack is due to NATO supplying Ukraine older kit they wouldn't go to war with. If the vehicles in that attack had APS, they drive right thru and start killing Russians. 

I feel your frustration. Anyone who has played Black Sea knows APS is a literal game changer. In the game. This would be the ideal conflict to test if that is also true in reality.

But I'm not sure we can place the blame entirely on "NATO". All of the APSs presently deployed on NATO vehicles are made by Rafael and it is unlikely Israel would approve the re-export.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[holoween]

As scary as selfmoving mines sound they really arent a competition to normal mines.

A basic at mine takes a plastic casing, 3-5kg of explosives and a pressure plate to disable or destroy any vehicle that drives over it.

it costs practically nothing to produce, can be produced by the billions, easily laid mechanically, are practically undetectable and will last until something detonates it.

A selfmoving at mine needs the same basics but has to add a way to move, sensors to find its targets, a guiding system, energy storage and radios if it wants to selforganize with other mines. 

All those things are fairly expensive and relatively difficult to build. They will also be quite large and cannot be hidden in the ground. their batteries will run dry and if they communicate you can find the entire minefield with an ew vehicle.

[Taranis]

Quote

“We are moving forward”, assures the head of the Ukrainian armed forces
Ukraine assured Tuesday that its armed forces were gaining ground, shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to crush the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

"Heavy offensive and defensive battles are taking place in the east and south of our nation," Ukrainian armed forces chief Valeri Zaluzhny said on the networks . “We have gains, we are applying our plan, and we are moving forward ,” he said.

Source : Le Monde

[DesertFox]

One more for the list

edit: nvm we already had him

Edited June 13, 2023 by DesertFox

[cesmonkey]

 

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Would you mind expanding on this a little? This has the potential for the most informative point that has been published for the past 2 days.

RDK raids proved that, contrary to popular belief, RU is particularly weak in border regions. According to my sources inside RU, the word on the street the old man truly lost control of border regions, with both Prig and Kadyriv expressing a wish to travel there to help those regions. Furthermore, the UKR appears to be striking RU units harder with arty there than even in the Donetsk region, aggravating the RU situation (young conscripts started dying there which s very sensitive topic for Ru public)

Bakhmut is a walking time bomb. It appears to be quiet but it is not. Unlike what RU expected, UKR has not stopped pressing there, causing a major challenge for RU. RU must either transfer additional reserves or risk taking a massive moral and political blow if the situation explodes (there's a reason Prig fled so quickly from there).

UKR began pushing back at Avdivka. That worries RU since Avdiivka is so near to Donetsk, and any penetration, no matter how minor, may lead to not just military but also political disaster.

Another publicized assault on Maryinka village has failed. Who are these men defending Maryinka? This is above cyborg level of power.

Current UKR actions in the south has lately begun worrying RU since, on top of the present issues, a major UKR strike in the Volnovkha direction has the potential to collapse the whole RU front there.

UKR created a lot of problems for RU in a lot of different places without committing main forces yet. And all the fuss is about the loss of bunch of Bradley and Leo's that spooked RU craples.  

[Centurian52]

5 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Truth remains russians wiped out a big unit

I wouldn't consider two platoons of mechanized infantry and a tank to be a big unit

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

I wouldn't consider two platoons of mechanized infantry and a tank to be a big unit

it is all relative.  For Russia this is big.  When you have little to celebrate you make the most of what you've got.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

That is interesting. Polish bloggers spread similar rumours, and additionally, are hinting at a completely new attack direction possibly materialising in a few days. In oher words, the good stuff at Orikhiv direction was not supposed to draw RUS attention away from the Velykaya Novosilka direction, but those two directions both are covers for the real attack.Any rumours like that on your side? 

Generally, the same. There is one rumor though that RU situation at south is way worse than everybody thinks. But I am waiting for confirmation on that. 

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Generally, the same. There is one rumor though that RU situation at south is way worse than everybody thinks. But I am waiting for confirmation on that. 

Yep we will learn. Maybe a small indicator here:

 

 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

it is all relative.  For Russia this is big.  When you have little to celebrate you make the most of what you've got.

RU Nats before attacking Ukraine - We destroy NATO in few days. RU Nats after attacking Ukraine - Glorious Victory, comrades, we managed to hit several Bradley's and Leo's! And tractor, and wooden tank but you must erase these incidents from your memory. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

44 minutes ago, sburke said:

The US is sending depleted-uranium ammo to Ukraine capable of piercing Russian tank armour, report says (yahoo.com)

The US is set to approve depleted-uranium tank shells for Ukraine, the WSJ said.

The shells are capable of blowing up Russian tank armor.

There were doubts over providing the shells for environmental and health reasons.

The US is sending depleted-uranium shells to Ukraine that are capable of penetrating Russian tank armor, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

For several months the Biden administration has been debating whether to provide the shells to Ukraine following concerns over their environmental and health impacts, the outlet reported.

But an administration official said that there were now no major obstacles to providing the ammunition.

I think any moral or ethical arguments against sending equipment the West has and is planning to use itself are ridiculous 

[Probus]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-capture-of-ukrainian-leopard-tank-bradleys-seen-in-video

Edited June 13, 2023 by Probus

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

Everybody here has bleeped a scenario or twenty in CM, hit quit, and memory holed the experience. The poor B#^&$##@#ds were playing for real but had exactly the same crap go wrong. The enemy hit the most important piece of equipment on the board, your very first decision in response was wrong, and it was all just bleeped. In CM you blame it on the second beer and go to bed. At least most of the crews got out, so somebody only has to write four letters, instead of twenty or thirty. 

Also allow me to add that a BIG part of the failure of this attack is due to NATO supplying Ukraine older kit they wouldn't go to war with. If the vehicles in that attack had APS, they drive right thru and start killing Russians. 

Is APS widespread yet in western armies? The last time I checked in with the latest western equipment we were making sure things had the option of adding APS later, but we hadn't gotten around to actually adding the APS yet.

[Bulletpoint]

21 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think any moral or ethical arguments against sending equipment the West has and is planning to use itself are ridiculous 

I think a better question is if those special shells are even necessary in order to penetrate Russian tanks? Do they even have any tanks left at this point, let alone any that don't belong in a museum?