How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, womble said:

Your mine-clearance tank changes to one bristling with chainguns or some other means of nailing an onrushing UGV before it gets close enough to pop its top-attack EFP weapon*. And additional assets lurking to pick off any other moving mines that are replacing the ones chopped down or trying to change the shape of the field. All these robot-choppers would probably need to be largely self-targeting and tied to multi-spectrum sensors, in order to react quickly enough to the developing threat. Even having a human in the loop for "Shoot/no-shoot" discrimination would probably be too detrimental to the OODA loop required to reliably trim such a minefield down.

Minefields in areas with restricted visibility would be a real bear. And they could come a-scampering out of the forests onto the road once the engineer vehicles have passed... The advent of such systems will make area security a real nightmare, as well as complicating the "static" defense picture. The only ameliorating factor is that such complex systems will cost more than a big disc of plastique with a fuse, so won't be as widespread as "conventional" mines can be.

I am talking about bottom attacking UGVs that simply wait for the bridgehead, or even follow on and then 12 hours later shift to close the safe lane.  Now you have F ech on the other side of a mine field with legs.  It means a re-breach, which of course can be targeted, again.  You get through that and 12 hours later it does it again.  Nothing dramatic as chain guns or lasers - just continual grinding defensive pressure on your LOCs as your heavy stuff get cut off from gas and ammunition.  You could have 1000 simple smart systems that can assess its own gaps and then fill them.

What you are describing are close-in strike UGVs - like modern day mine dogs or war pigs...that is a whole other nightmare.  We are talking about detecting and "picking off" something the size of a small lawnmower with legs that can hide anywhere and decide to strike from a few meters.  What happens when these little bastards can dig in a foot or two and simply lay dormant until they find a target?  They can be armed with offset EFPs so they really do not even need to go under the vehicle.  This is not science fiction, we are likely talking in the next 5-10 years. 

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am talking about bottom attacking UGVs that simply wait for the bridgehead, or even follow on and then 12 hours later shift to close the safe lane.  Now you have F ech on the other side of a mine field with legs.  It means a re-breach, which of course can be targeted, again.  You get through that and 12 hours later it does it again.  Nothing dramatic as chain guns or lasers - just continual grinding defensive pressure on your LOCs as your heavy stuff get cut off from gas and ammunition.  You could have 1000 simple smart systems that can assess its own gaps and then fill them.

What you are describing are close-in strike UGVs - like modern day mine dogs or war pigs...that is a whole other nightmare.  We are talking about detecting and "picking off" something the size of a small lawnmower with legs that can hide anywhere and decide to strike from a few meters.  What happens when these little bastards can dig in a foot or two and simply lay dormant until they find a target?  They can be armed with offset EFPs so they really do not even need to go under the vehicle.  This is not science fiction, we are likely talking in the next 5-10 years. 

 

If standard anti tank mines were not slightly to big for most UAVs they could quietly re-mining cleared lanes at night right now.

[benpark]

Just like that episode of Black Mirror - We have the now standard drones that drop explosives like harpies from Hades, remote explosive filled powerboats, and now robotic dogpigs that will no doubt unleash some sort of furiously awful droppings.

What's the deal with mine-clearance not being done with expendable, remotely controlled vehicles in 2023?

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, benpark said:

What's the deal with mine-clearance not being done with expendable, remotely controlled vehicles in 2023?

As in CM, combat engineering (less C-IED) has been largely sidelined and unloved in favour of big shiny new tanks and AFVs in modern military force development.  That is because we largely have written off this sort of war ever occurring..whoops.

To answer your question more directly -  do not think such a system has been invented yet, at least not for this sort of combat environment.  

[sburke]

then we'll have AI controlled units that are designated to keep a road section clear so they go hunting the mines.  I think I'll not be overly excited at CM:Watch the Ai do all the stuff while you play minecraft or something

[FancyCat]

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Prominent Russian Telegram channels and military correspondents had a meeting with Putin. This indicates that he seeks alternative sources of information on the war, apart from his intelligence and military commanders. Some of these correspondents have been openly critical of Russian generals.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

then we'll have AI controlled units that are designated to keep a road section clear so they go hunting the mines.  I think I'll not be overly excited at CM:Watch the Ai do all the stuff while you play minecraft or something

And now we are at Defensive-Denial primacy.  It is much easier for a UGV minefield to shift to close a gap than it is for offensive AI to find, fix and finish UGVs hiding underground.

Edited June 13, 2023 by The_Capt

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And now we are at Defensive-Denial primacy.  It is much easier for a UGV minefield to shift to close a gap than it is for offensive AI to find, fix and finish UGVs hiding.

couldn't you just as well us them on offense?  Have all your AI gopher/pig rooting UAV mines slip into enemy territory and just wreck the backfield?

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks for chiming in!  We have already had some indications that Russia has been obligated to commit its main reserves.  Now seeing the same thing from Mashovets gives me more confidence that this is indeed the case.

As we've been discussing, this is expected as Russia doesn't have all that much at the front or in reserve and, contrary to doom sayers on the Ukraine side and Zzombies on the other side, the Russian forces in contact and behind the lines are suffering significant casualties.

Steve

The situation is confusing; all sides are keeping quiet about what is going on, with the exception of Ru Nat reporters, who I believe are being deceived by RU the command.  I believe the RU situation is bad, but they are sort of holding the line by hurling reserves at UKR (first local reserves, now main) and because UKR are not advancing in real force. 

 

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And still after all the videos, I have yet to see a significant RA artillery/indirect fire response countering the minefield breach.  Everyone is too busy freaking out on the fact that western gear is allergic to explosives as Russian stuff; however, the lack of RA indirect fire support is far more interesting.

According to UKR, their pushes (including the fight with Bradly and Leo) frightened RU low-level commanders. They became anxious and began calling RU higher command, asking for any support they could get. The RU upper command became spoked and activated hidden arty batteries exposing them to UKR counter-battery fire.

 

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

But if the RUS arty is dying why go at infantry pace?

RU aviation. UKR AA moves at a slow rate as well.

 

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Sometimes I'm surprised by the amount of copium in this forum.

I am always surprised by the amount of RU copium from you. Let's look at what RU side does:

Russian defence chiefs have been mocked for claiming to destroy a German-supplied lethal Leopard 2 tank - when in fact they had blown up tractors in Ukrainian fields.

Let it sink in: RU MOD officially lies in the most blatant way possible (wheels are clearly visible). Nonetheless, you complain that we demand all RU claims to be validated, at the very least, with photos.

FFS, I do not accept even photos unless they are really clear. Recently RU destroyed another Patriot and even displayed a hazy photo of the Patriot launcher. Except it wasn't a Patriot launcher, but an IRIS-T launcher. They did not destroy it, they hit and damaged the IRIS radar (AFAIK it is fixed and working again)

Finally, shortly before the Bradly-Leopard fight, RU released hazy photographs of a destroied Leopard. Except it's not Leopard, but who knows what (maybe an AMX-10) and it might not be even destroyed.

Never accept RU word. Rarely accept RU photos. Demand full video. End of story. 

 

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Then we supposed that the lack of indirect fire is an indication of insufficient artillery coverage by the RU (despite there videos and photos of the same sector with 1. Leopards slaloming between 152mm explosions and 2. Myriads of dense craters in the aftermath photos , only artillery could have caused.) 

RU are experiencing severe shortage of shells (and ATGMs). RU arty is systematically destroyed by UKR CB becasue RU suck at CB (they cannot make proper CB radar). Capt is right - RU have issues with arty. End of story. 

 

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Then we said, ruskies have nothing else to show for days, apart from this column. They probably suck again in all other areas. 

Why probably? Right now, RU is sucking at several Directions, including Bakhmut and RU border territories (RDK raids). Worse, the primary plan they had for a defensive battle in the southern direction has collapsed since UKR are not advancing as RU expected. 

 

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

 Truth remains russians wiped out a big unit, with very pricey and rare toys and the RU did this with relative ease and no significant documented losses. Shooting vikhrs from a safe distance like it was Apaches shooting T-72s in Medina Ridge. For a start they seem to have at least figured out how to use their gunships, they deserve this minimum credit I guess. 

Ignorance is bliss, I guess. Back to reality: UKR emulated a big attack by performing recon in force (by platoons or 1-2 companies at most). For the cost of a few vehicles (a couple dozen Bradly/APCs and several Leopards at most), UKR managed to utterly confuse RU command and compel it to:

• reveal the bulk of concealed artillery reserved for big UKR offensive
• begin deploying the majority of reserves (and now committing them to combat)
• commit aviation to battle

I do not really understand all the fuss about UKR losses. 

[Beleg85]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Prominent Russian Telegram channels and military correspondents had a meeting with Putin. This indicates that he seeks alternative sources of information on the war, apart from his intelligence and military commanders. Some of these correspondents have been openly critical of Russian generals.

Interesting development. Even very interesting. Diversifying info or redistributing responsibility and firther wealening MoD....anyway, Pegov still looks like bloody hobo.

I don't know if it was posted here before, UA armour stepping on mines. Likely from the same doomed assault, still:

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

couldn't you just as well us them on offense?  Have all your AI gopher/pig rooting UAV mines slip into enemy territory and just wreck the backfield?

It is a different task and requires much higher levels of AI.  And there is the issue of scale.

On defence I need only tell a UGV swarm to identify gaps collectively and shift over a few units who will park, dig in a bit and wait for someone to drive over them and explode.  We basically have that now.

On offence it is - sniff around, identify something the size of shoebox as an enemy system, target and destroy.  This is far more complex as it is challenging not to have the AI attacking rocks.  Scale is "here is 1 million sq meters lads...good luck."  You would need a UGV swarm to cover that area which gets into interesting cloud-edge contacts.  At which point the damned tanks are pretty much irrelevant.

When one looks at Defensive primacy historically, it tend to come into play when things like integration, range and firepower technology advance faster than survivability and mobility.

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Exactly. The biggest problem with that action is that they used some new, fancy, expensive Western stuff and lost it in exactly the same way they would have lost some cheaper, Soviet made stuff. 

According to UKR rumors, Western equipment was employed to draw RU attention and persuade them that it was the main thing. I believe that since the UKR employed Leopards. German tanks annoy Russian officers since the Russian army has suffered greatly from German tanks in the past.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

German tanks annoy Russian officers since the Russian army has suffered greatly from German tanks in the past

LOL.  Now there is a sig line.

[kevinkin]

Troop movements? 

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-redeploying-most-capable-units-ukraine-push-counteroffensive-bakhmut-zaporizhzhia-1805893

The undermining of the dam, Maliar said, "was apparently carried out with the aim of preventing an offensive by the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kherson direction and releasing the necessary reserves for their transfer to the Zaporizhzhia and Bakhmut directions."

"According to available information, it became known that the enemy is moving its most combat-capable units from the Kherson direction, primarily units of the marines, airborne troops and the 49th army," Maliar wrote. Forbes has described the 49th Combined Arms Army as "the Russian main force" in occupied Kherson region.

[sburke]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It is a different task and requires much higher levels of AI.  And there is the issue of scale.

On defence I need only tell a UGV swarm to identify gaps collectively and shift over a few units who will park, dig in a bit and wait for someone to drive over them and explode.  We basically have that now.

Or just give them a set of GPS coordinates.  Identifying a target shouldn't be any different on "offense" versus "defense" Essentially you are just saying "deploy minefield at these coordinates.  So now a major artery for the enemy is getting interdicted.

Edited June 13, 2023 by sburke

[kevinkin]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/armor-expert-breaks-down-ukraines-loss-of-bradleys-during-breaching-operation

Deep drive into the subject posted last night.

 

Edited June 13, 2023 by kevinkin

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As to point #4 - I do not see a crafty RA master plan here, lets not go the other way - which has also been a cognitive disease in this war. 

Capt’s Razor: Never attribute to cleverness and planning that which can be adequately explained by stupidity or materiel shortages.

This also applies to nearly every discussion on China!

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Or just give them a set of GPS coordinates.  Identifying a target shouldn't be any different on "offense" versus "defenses" Essentially you are just saying "deploy minefield at these coordinates.  So now a major artery for the enemy is getting interdicted.

So wouldn't that still be a defensive blocking exercise?  I mean unless you are talking about advancing minefields to take ground...now that is an interesting idea, offensive denial.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So wouldn't that still be a defensive blocking exercise?  I mean unless you are talking about advancing minefields to take ground...now that is an interesting idea, offensive denial.

i dunno, seems offense and defense could get quite blurred.

[Bulletpoint]

37 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU command and compel it to:

• reveal the bulk of concealed artillery reserved for big UKR offensive

Is it really possible for Russians to conceal any artillery in this war?

I assume Ukraine has full access to realtime images from all American spy satellites and the whole Pentagon busy helping them analysing the information 24/7.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

  This is really weird for the RA as they are still essentially an artillery army...or at least were.  I would expect to see an iron sky drop on UA forces stuck in a minefield. 

Maybe they had deconflicting issues with the helicopters? Heard it is not the strongest suit of RUS

[kevinkin]

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/06/12/i-helped-train-one-of-ukrainian-units-fighting-counteroffensive.html

Quick interesting read from a guy who trained elements of the UA. 

[Lethaface]

13 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

ISW's June 12th report gives some high level information about the Russian counter attack to retake Makarivka:

I am not inclined to disbelieve something based on nothing but faith, but I am willing to do it based on past history.

The Russians have shown no aptitude for attacking, not to mention counter attacking, since this war started.  Their successes after restarting their offensive in the Spring 2022 were limited and mostly due to obliterating Ukrainian positions with artillery.  Even then it was a slow process.

For the last 6+ months we have seen Russia make some limited tactical gains, a little here and a little there, but only after extensive fighting for the same ground.  In the case of Bakhmut, generally with massive casualties.  There's been very few examples of a coordinated attack, even on light defenses, that has gone favorably for Russia.  Attacks have also generally, nearly always in fact, been very small scale with minimal coordination with other arms or supporting units.

Now all of a sudden we're supposed to believe that Russia is capable of mounting a large scale counter attack right into the teeth of fresh, well armed Ukrainian forces in the beginning of a major counter offensive?  These Ukrainian forces are not being supported by a single 120mm mortar with 10 rounds for the day like some of the TD units Russia could barely make a dent in.

So what I'm thinking here is that Russia's counter attack got the stuffing knocked out of it and that, not the weather, is why they didn't secure their objective.

And even if Russia takes back a village from Ukrainian forces, it's going to be like the 6th SS Panzer Army taking a Hungarian village in the Spring of 1945.  Not really a game changer.

I'll happily revise my thinking of Russian offensive capabilities when I have solid proof that they are doing something militarily significant.

Steve

What we, at least imo, also should expect to see (and or are seeing) is Ukraine 'learning' to do large scales mech offensives against well prepared positions. All the talking heads have been saying 'we' for a large part have lost that capability since the 90s. Ukraine are humans like all the rest of us, so it won't be 'easy' for them either.

Ukraine's forces have much more experience with defense / counterstrokes compared to large offensive operations. And AFAIK they are now trying 'new things', as in large scale mech offensives the NATO way more or less. Apart from  whether the doctrine is suboptimal/aged or not and the consequences resulting from the absence of dominating air support; it is normal if a couple of attacks fail because of 'mistakes', difficulties arising from coordination / whatever; the road from textbook to practice isn't smooth usually.

Also In CM coordination between forces is key for battlefield success. The 'learning curve' to properly coordinate stuff using the CM system is steep but rewarding, especially in H2H play. I have probably lost a good number of brigades worth of AFVs, not to mention troops, while playing CMs since 2007.
I have also played battles in which I suffered ugly casualties at first but came back with a major victory in the end. 
The one thing we could perhaps learn from Russia is 'loss resilience'; in war the things in play are human lives (unfortunately) and military hardware, so we better have a stomach for taking losses (or shouldn't play at the table). 

The worry would be if Ukraine doesn't learn, but so far they seem to be much better at that compared to the Russians so I'm feeling optimistic about limited successes for Ukraine.
So far no sign of really collapsing Russian lines though, I still hope to see those but let's see

[Maciej Zwolinski]

43 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Why probably? Right now, RU is sucking at several Directions, including Bakhmut and RU border territories (RDK raids). Worse, the primary plan they had for a defensive battle in the southern direction has collapsed since UKR are not advancing as RU expected. 

Would you mind expanding on this a little? This has the potential for the most informative point that has been published for the past 2 days.