How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Two more Excalibur shots:

Russian BMD-4M was hit on Kreminna direction with FH-70 howitzer of 45th arty btigade via targeting of 100th TD brigade (Volyn' oblast) drone

Next T-90M is knocked out by 45th arty brigade

 

[Haiduk]

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Interview with former CIA Intelligence Officer Marc Polymeropoulos, some interesting points on the US support especially. An extremely frustrating situation for him.

AI-generated summary:

Key insights

• "The Russians...have been managed to do is bleed...in a staggering...military operation." - The Ukrainians have been successful in bleeding the Russians in a military operation, despite initial skepticism about their strategy.
• The U.S intelligence community assesses that the Russians have lost a total of a hundred thousand casualties, which is an order of magnitude not seen since the fight in the Pacific.
• The loss of Wagner Fighters is a catastrophic loss for the Russian side in Ukraine, and bleeding the Russians dry is the strategy for the Ukrainians to mount their own counteroffensive.
• There are elements at the National Security Council level that don't want to give Ukraine the tools to completely defeat Russia, for fear of catastrophic collapse of the Russian military and potential use of tactical nukes or strategic weapons.
• The idea of keeping Putin in power for stability is crazy and immoral, even if some analysts compare it to keeping Saddam in power after the first Gulf War.
• The US government's aid to Ukraine is not just about supporting democracy, but also about protecting American interests in the region.
• The idea of giving just enough help to get to the negotiating table in Ukraine is immoral and frustrating for those on the ground who have lost loved ones.
• The decisions made at high levels of government have real consequences for the lives of people in Ukraine.

 

full summary with timestamps:

Quote

The American media's coverage of the war in Ukraine is one-sided and lazy, and it is important to listen to the Ukrainian perspective in the conflict while balancing pragmatism and decency in creating effective policies.

• 00:00 The American media's coverage of the war in Ukraine is one-sided and lazy, while the speaker emphasizes the importance of listening to the Ukrainian perspective in the conflict.
  • Get 20% off a monthly or annual membership with the DSR Network in May, which includes an ad-free listening experience, exclusive bonus content, an evening members-only newsletter, and access to a members-only Slack community.
  • Michael Weiss is joined by Mark Palmeropolis, a former CIA officer, to discuss the current state of US-Russia relations.
  • The speaker and Mark discuss the Western pessimism towards Ukraine's chances of a successful counter-offensive, but the speaker disagrees based on conversations with Ukrainian officials.
  • The American media's coverage of the war in Ukraine is lazy and one-sided due to their sources being in the U.S Administration, and a better approach would be to talk to people who have been to Ukraine and have firsthand knowledge of the situation.
  • The American media provides a one-sided view based on the national security establishment's armchair analysis, while on-the-ground reporting from Ukraine offers a different perspective, highlighting the failure of the US national security media.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of listening to the Ukrainian perspective in the conflict and highlights the success of their military strategy in bleeding the Russians.
• 08:28 The Russians have suffered a significant loss of 100,000 casualties in their attempts to capture Bachman, with the Ukrainian estimation of Russia's capability differing from that of the Americans.
  • The Russians have suffered a significant number of casualties in their attempts to capture Bachman, with the US intelligence community estimating a loss of 100,000 since December.
  • The loss of Wagner Fighters in World War II is a catastrophic blow for the Russian side, and the Ukrainian estimation of Russia's capability differs from that of the Americans.
  • The American commentariat is beginning to question whether they got it wrong and the Ukrainians got it right in their counter-offensive strategy, but leaked intelligence should be viewed as a snapshot in time and may not be as significant in the current situation.
  • The speaker discusses how building relationships and trust with Ukraine through training and resources helped in the February 24th incident, highlighting the importance of putting in the "plumbing" for future success.
  • The speaker believes that the Ukrainian military is more capable than given credit for and that US policymakers should prepare for the possibility of a catastrophic Russian collapse.
  • The speaker expresses surprise at someone's satisfaction with Ramstein meetings and discusses various global concerns, including China's yeast schemes and Germany's attitude towards their past actions.
• 16:08 The fear of a catastrophic collapse of the Russian military is preventing Ukraine from receiving the necessary tools to defeat Russia, but President Biden is making final decisions on providing weapons despite dissenting views within the NSC.
  • There are elements at the National Security Council level and beyond that don't want to give Ukraine the tools to completely defeat Russia due to fear of a catastrophic collapse of the Russian military and potential repercussions in Moscow.
  • Russia is still unpredictable and a black box, leading to paranoia and fear in policy, as we cannot predict the next sequence of events.
  • Keeping Putin in power for stability is immoral and those advocating for it lack real world experience.
  • President Biden makes final decisions on providing weapons to Ukraine despite dissenting views within the NSC.
  • The Ukrainian government closely follows the domestic political scene in America and there are worries about some elements in the GOP particularly in the house, and the notion that the US will determine its support for Ukraine based on the success of their offensive is putting too much pressure on them.
  • Lean into the difficulty and do more to support Ukraine in order to give them what they need to win.
• 21:56 The fight against terrorism requires perseverance, while media attention can influence political action towards Ukraine, and the aid given to Ukraine needs to be compared to the wire-guided anti-tank missile.
  • The offensive against terrorism will be bloody and difficult, but we must lean into it and not give up.
  • Making noise in the media and complaining about the lack of action towards Ukraine can influence influential people in the Senate and House to take action.
  • Comparison between the wire-guided anti-tank missile and the current aid given to Ukraine is significant.
  • Giving just enough support to indigenous partners to get them to the negotiating table is immoral and frustrating for those on the ground who know it's not enough.
  • A Human Rights Watch representative's explanation of US policy regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria was met with disgust by a Syrian civilian who questioned why the US only cared about chemical weapons and not other forms of violence.
• 26:27 American policy makers need to balance pragmatism and decency by combining the perspectives of both action-oriented individuals and academics to create effective policies.
  • American policy making is dominated by Ivy League-educated individuals who view the world as a game of Risk and lack engagement with people on the ground, requiring a balance of pragmatism and decency.
  • Combining the perspectives of both action-oriented individuals and academics is necessary for creating effective policies, as demonstrated by the former deputy director of the CIA.
  • The speaker, who ran a paramilitary base in eastern Afghanistan, believes that if the US leaves Afghanistan, the country will not be stable despite all the efforts put in by the US and indigenous forces.
  • American tentativeness towards Ukraine is due to the psychological effect of losing wars, causing a fear of victory, despite the fact that Ukraine's fight for liberation is not a war of choice and is supported by the majority of Ukrainians.
• 29:37 Returning soldiers struggle to adjust to civilian life, decisions made at high levels of government affect real people, Ukrainian pilots can fly F-16s effectively in a short time, and journalists reporting from war zones have a similar experience to CIA case officers.
  • Returning from a war zone to a mundane life in America can be difficult for soldiers who struggle to adjust to the stark contrast in environments.
  • Real people's lives are gravely affected by decisions made at high levels of government, and while majoritarian influence can have an impact, there are other stakeholders involved and the price we're paying for our actions towards Ukraine is unclear.
  • Assessments of Ukrainian pilots show they can fly F-16s effectively in as little as one month, despite claims it could take years, and Israeli airstrikes on Syria suggest Assad's air defense systems are not as formidable as claimed.
  • Journalists reporting from war zones have a similar experience to CIA case officers in terms of meeting sources and witnessing horrific events, but it is against US law for journalists to work as cover for the agency.
  • Martin and Clarissa Ward had a great discussion and both have served in the business, with Martin having reviewed her book.
• 34:23 US journalists need to diversify their sources to avoid an echo chamber, while the US intelligence community is uncertain about the recent drone attack and Ukrainians have the capability to act in their own war.
  • Journalists in the United States rely too much on U.S sources and administration, creating an echo chamber and a narrative that is not fact-based.
  • It's important to recognize the limitations of personal experience and avoid tunnel vision and confirmation bias when consuming news.
  • US intelligence community's confidence levels are not high enough to determine who is responsible for the recent drone attack, but they know something and authorized disclosures will be made if it is a false flag.
  • Ukrainians have the capability to act in their own war, despite being warned not to by other countries.
• 38:08 Former CIA officer and MSNBC contributor is back to promote their podcast.
  • The speaker welcomes back a guest, compliments their haircut, introduces them as a former CIA officer and MSNBC contributor, and promotes their podcast.

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Haiduk]

Today's night strike result. Russians launched 6 Kh-101/555 missiles and 5 Shakeds. Ineterrsting to launch 6 cruise missiles they involved 6 Tu-95, though this quantity of missiles could launch one bomber.

4 missiles and 3 Shakeds were shot down, but two missiles have struck airfield near Kropyvnytskyi and two Shakhed hit some infrastructure oblect in Sumy oblast

[JonS]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

There is a line stretching back eons of human civilization of old men saying exactly what you are here - “Back in my day we smashed each others heads in with rocks.  Now these kids are throwing pointy sticks!?  Oh humanity!”  Insert muskets, machine guns, artillery, aircraft, ATGMs and now UAS, same thing.

Ahem.

[Haiduk]

Interesting facts of mobilization in LDNR issued in own statistic Russian colonel-genaral Burdinskiy, chief of Main organization and mobilization directorate of General Staff. 

According this information for 22 day of partial mobilization (Nov 10 - Dec 2) were mobilized more than 300 000 of citizens and formed about 280 units. Among this 300 000, 79 800 were mobilized from DNR and LNR (almost 27 %)

This number in 79800 can be multiple in several times, but how much were mobilized in LDNR still unknown. According to unofficial info on summer 2022 were mobilized 140 000 so far. And unknown how much were mobilized in two next waves from July to November 2022 and from Decenber to June 2023.

According to official info of LDNR  "authorities" there are 3,5 millions lived on occupied territories in summer 2022 (UN assessment 2,8 millions). 45 % of them were men.  So, mobilization potential "to last man" in LDNR could be about 976 000 and very likely 400-500 000 of them already were mobilized. Number of their losses still unknown. 

Source: https://defence-ua.com/news/pid_chas_chastkovoji_mobilizatsiji_do_armiji_rashistiv_lishe_za_22_dni_zabrili_80_tisjach-11778.html

Example of that their losses are extremaly high showing this video, filmed in previous days somewhere on Kupiansk direction (red tapes usually wear LDNR fighters)

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[NamEndedAllen]

NATO-trained units will serve as tip of spear in Ukraine’s counteroffensive
-(Wash Post) By Isabelle Khurshudyan and Kamila Hrabchuk June 4, 2023 at 9:50 a.m. PT

When Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive finally begins, the fight will be led by brigades armed not only with Western weapons but also Western know-how, gleaned from months of training aimed at transforming Ukraine’s military into a modern force skilled in NATO’s most advanced warfare tactics.  https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/04/ukraine-nato-training-counteroffensive-47th-brigade/

[Haiduk]

UKR "Shilka" in action

"Shilka" during Vuhledar defense (old video)

 

[danfrodo]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting facts of mobilization in LDNR issued in own statistic Russian colonel-genaral Burdinskiy, chief of Main organization and mobilization directorate of General Staff. 

According this information for 22 day of partial mobilization (Nov 10 - Dec 2) were mobilized more than 300 000 of citizens and formed about 280 units. Among this 300 000, 79 800 were mobilized from DNR and LNR (almost 27 %)

This number in 79800 can be multiple in several times, but how much were mobilized in LDNR still unknown. According to unofficial info on summer 2022 were mobilized 140 000 so far. And unknown how much were mobilized in two next waves from July to November 2022 and from Decenber to June 2023.

According to official info of LDNR  "authorities" there are 3,5 millions lived on occupied territories in summer 2022 (UN assessment 2,8 millions). 45 % of them were men.  So, mobilization potential "to last man" in LDNR could be about 976 000 and very likely 400-500 000 of them already were mobilized. Number of their losses still unknown. 

Source: https://defence-ua.com/news/pid_chas_chastkovoji_mobilizatsiji_do_armiji_rashistiv_lishe_za_22_dni_zabrili_80_tisjach-11778.html

Example of that their losses are extremaly high showing this video, filmed in previous days somewhere on Kupiansk direction (red tapes usually wear LDNR fighters)

 

That is amazing drone video of dead LDNR fighters.  So many caught by artillery.   What happened that so many were standing in relative open?  Some though were in trenches, but most it seems in open. 

Well, those that wanted to join Putin's lovely Russian empire are getting the consequences they deserve.  For those that didn't want Putin's rule I have some sympathy.  But in wrong place at wrong time and armed to kill Ukranians so this sad outcome was what was best for humanity going forward, sad as it is.

And what the holy hell is going on w the raids into Russia?  Seems these are causing a lot more trouble than I would've imagined.  Meanwhile, supposedly UKR attacks west of Vuledar and still some attacks around Bakhmut.  The plot thickens.....

[Haiduk]

New section of frontine is opened in Belgorod oblast. RVC units seized border village Starosielye on west of oblast and Russian troops already several hours try to push them back on UKR territory.

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seedorf81]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

(..)

And what the holy hell is going on w the raids into Russia?  Seems these are causing a lot more trouble than I would've imagined.  (..)  The plot thickens.....

Have you ever tried to catch a very fit mouse in a big house with a lot of furniture and other stuff where it can hide under? It's ridiculously difficult. That is why the Russians struggle against the "invaders".

And it is almost as funny as "Tom and Jerry"..

[TheVulture]

My suspicion would be that the Belgorod situation is a direct consequence of Russia's initial reaction to the first Grayvoron incursion. That was a raid in force that hung around to force a Russian response (plus whatever morale,  psyops, distraction etc. benefits it produced). Now that Russian response has been noted and studied,  and either it was weak enough that they thought there was a genuine chance of gaining and holding some Russian territory, or that a more significant incursion was needed to force Russia to divert forces to defend Belgorod and secure other thinly held areas of the border - not letting Russia assume it can continue defending the border with token forces and hoping that just the escalation of moving in to Russian territory would be enough deterrent.

[TheVulture]

13 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Have you ever tried to catch a very fit mouse in a big house with a lot of furniture and other stuff where it can hide under? It's ridiculously difficult. That is why the Russians struggle against the "invaders".

And it is almost as funny as "Tom and Jerry"..

Actually yes.  We had an old house with very large rooms lots of nooks and crannies, ans way too much furniture and other stuff. And two cats who seemed to operate a "catch and release" policy re mice. We never had mice in the house until we had cats...

It was often a day or two before the mice made a mistake that let us catch and evict them. We usually got them before the cats managed to though. 

[Taranis]

4 hours ago, kraze said:

Ah special civil war in Russia. It was a long long time coming.

No, it's Special Civil Operation 

[Taranis]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Caesar in action

@Haiduk do you recognise the patch?

 

Magnificent ! Beautiful !

[sburke]

seems like the Russians are stuck in a game of "whack-a-mole" in Belgorod where they don't actually get to really whack anything... other than their own towns.

[Haiduk]

First UAV videos from Novoselivka salient

Russian footage of UKR vehicles, probably abandoned NE from Rivnopil' village, one vehicle is smoking

 

Likely UKR UAV filming of Russian tank with "bbq on top" got HEAT in turret and exploded through some time in Novodarivka village (6 km SW from location of Russian video near Rivnopil')

  

 

[dan/california]

Further down it implies none of the top grade NATO gear has been committed yet. I have always suspected Ukraine would conduct most of the initial breaching with Soviet legacy gear, and save the best NATO stuff for exploitation and the inevitable fight with whatever competent mobile forces the Russians have left. It could also be the first of who knows how many diversionary attacks to run the Russians ragged

[akd]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Likely UKR UAV filming of Russian tank with "bbq on top" got HEAT in turret and exploded through some time in Novodarivka village (6 km SW from location of Russian video near Rivnopil')

  

 

Actually, based on the burst and angle of the dissipating HEAT penetrator, looks like it got hit in the "grill," but fragments must have gone through open hatch and started ammunition fire. Alternatively, mine or second hit from different direction.

Edited June 4, 2023 by akd

[Armorgunner]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Actually, based on the burst and angle of the dissipating HEAT penetration, looks like it got hit in the "grill," but fragments must have gone through open hatch and started ammunition fire. Alternatively, mine or second hit from different direction.

I think its an NLAW, or BILL toppattack missile. Detonating above, sending its HEAT blast downwads. 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

Magnificent ! Beautiful !

Taranis is back!  Magnificent ! Beautiful !

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

And what the holy hell is going on w the raids into Russia?  Seems these are causing a lot more trouble than I would've imagined. 

Just a wild thought. Remember that idea long ago about the “shortcut” sweep up across the Russkie border and then back down again into Ukraine? While in general these raids would seem intended in part to draw some Russian combat units to the area, they might instead draw other border units in the region, thinning that rehion even further.  Because Russians of course wouldn’t want to fall for Ukraine “obvious” feints, and draw off front line units as the offensive draws near. Clearly there are problems with the notion: Ukraine regular units, armed with USA weapons aren’t supposed to cross Russia’s Magic Border. And certainly would be crossing a (political) line! But I keep hearing a voice saying, “Hit ‘em where they ain’t.”

[FancyCat]

I wonder if the appearance of the Polish volunteers isn’t another step towards escalation in invading Russia?

[akd]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I wonder if the appearance of the Polish volunteers isn’t another step towards escalation in invading Russia?

Now, as in Ukraine in 2014, this just shows the popularity of the uprising.

[Huba]

54 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Further down it implies none of the top grade NATO gear has been committed yet. I have always suspected Ukraine would conduct most of the initial breaching with Soviet legacy gear, and save the best NATO stuff for exploitation and the inevitable fight with whatever competent mobile forces the Russians have left.

Everyone seems to be thinking along these lines, and that’s why this is not what they should do. Use the Leopards as a deceit somewhere, wait for the RU reserves to be rushed there, and then deliver the main blow with the battle-hardened, Soviet-equipped brigades at the other end of the frontline. Well, perhaps not exactly that, but exploiting the psychological impact the NATO equiped brigades will make when initially commited to trick the Russians migh be worth considering I guess.