How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Nothing new in this analysis except I don't recall something from the Hudson Institute being so rosey.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12152585/Recent-attacks-spell-doom-Putin-break-Russia-expert-warns.html

[Vet 0369]

On 6/1/2023 at 9:43 AM, Kinophile said:

Mostly correct,  but the columns were not rebuilt, just the decks were replaced. 

The fun part of these photos is that those are vertical cracks, extending from base to top. You can bet a billion rubles those fractures extend further down. These seem like compressive failure cracks in the concrete,  which could be caused by the concrete itself being of shoddy manufacture and/or casting,  the rebar inside twisting or shifting (crap steel,  bad arrangement of rebar, insufficient rebar) or (and we know this to be the structural history of previous bridges in the area) the foundations are on the ****ty side of a stress curve. The ground below the bridge is notoriously unreliable in different and separate ways. 

The extent and consistency of the fractures implies internal failure within the columns extending down to the base, which itself doesn't show cracking,  that we can see.

The columns are not clad so this isn't external damage to a system separate from the primary structure -  this is the primary structure.

Also,  the visual proof its happening in both columns and showing similar patterning implies similar causation and propagation. Because the columns were built in identical fashion this makes sense.

That also proves that it is not a single point failure, but a systemic or area failure affecting both columns. 

I'm curious if these columns are near or below the blast zone. That would help explain how the cracking started, which combined with any of the factors above would start a slow but sure, internal failure cascade. It could also just be a **** build.  

WHAT? Soddy construction techniques, inferior materials, and poor design! Shut your mouth, this is top shelf Russian design with the best Russian materials! How dare you criticize this monumental Russian achievement. This could never happen. (Sarcasm)

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/03/europe/ukraine-secretive-drone-program-russia-war-intl

 

“FPV drones are becoming more and more relevant on the front line because it’s an opportunity to do a targeted strike, helping narrow the focus of artillery,” he explains. “So we need tens of thousands of FPV drones every month.”

 

I think this is pretty close to the Russians final warning to shoot their officers, and either surrender or go home.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

The only thing I like seeing more than FPV drone attacks is FPV drone attacks being done en-mas

Throughout this war we have seen various PGMs come into play.  I think that FPV kamikaze drones may be the most dangerous to frontline stability.  They make even routine resupply and redeployments incredibly vulnerable.  The FPVs are more maneuverable than their targets, even when their targets are moving full speed.  There is nothing else on the battlefield that can make that claim at these ranges without LOS (Javelin, for example).  All other PGMs in use by Ukraine are well suited for hitting stationary targets, not moving ones.  Not even Excalibur can hit a fast moving vehicle in complex terrain, but a FPV can. 

Besides the capability differences, for the cost of every Excalibur you can have 30-60 FPV drones with a logistics tail as complex as a quad bike and 2 guys.  Much harder for the enemy to find and eliminate a quad bike or pickup truck than a M777 or PzH2000.  And if there's an equipment loss or damage situation, you just need to put the guys into anything else that moves.  Cripes, a Lada would work.

I've realized these things were a game changer for some time now.  Yet I'm still trying to grasp how much of a change they bring to the battlefield.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Looks like the Pointer of Doom has some more entertaining videos coming up soon! Jagga-Jagga!

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1665090176941473792

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's June 3rd report has a lot about the latest stuff out of Prig's mouth and what it means.  This sums it up:

Quote

Prigozhin’s apparent threat to undertake military operations, even defensive ones, on Russian territory without the permission of the Russian MoD is astonishing if it is anything other than flamboyant rhetoric. It implies that Prigozhin regards himself as able to use large military forces loyal to him at his own discretion and beyond the control of the actual Russian military. Russian President Vladimir Putin would have to have tremendous confidence in Prigozhin’s personal loyalty to himself to be at all comfortable with such a situation.

I'm going to stock up on popcorn, because there could finally be a showdown!

Steve

[fireship4]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm going to stock up on popcorn, because there could finally be a showdown!

Russia should do everyone a favour and use the threat of civil war as an excuse to pull everyone out.  Before it isn't an excuse.

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've realized these things were a game changer for some time now.  Yet I'm still trying to grasp how much of a change they bring to the battlefield.

And within two years, at the MOST, these things will not need operators. Some countries will pretend somebody is glancing at the video screen and approving the target, and some countries won't bother. either way you just draw a kill box on a map and tell them to go hunting. Have a rock solid solution to this threat, or don't show up the for next war. Without operators, or the need for much comms band width, if any, the will show in tens and twenties, and hundreds. As Steve just said, one Excalibur or ~25-50 kamikaze drones. Ukraine may get there by January 2024 if that CNN article is not entirely hype/propaganda. I think the Ukrainians will say something like "the unit commander used to be a lawyer, and he says he likes his orcs deep fried in their own diesel, works for us".

[Fenris]

Yeah it's interesting how many times over the course of the conflict we've heard xyz is going to be a "real game changer".  Sure most of the things that got this moniker were to some degree more effective than whatever they replaced but invariably they're in short supply, very expensive and more complex pieces of kit.  HIMARS did make a huge difference but I agree that nothing really comes close to what we've seen the done with drones, just about all of which has been developed in country and for a fraction of the cost.  Going to be interesting to see how things develop in this space.  Drone swarms controlled by a single operator who can peal off a drone at a time to hit a target.  Drones that carry kamikaze drones as payload.  Fully autonomous might come but I think a human in the chain will help with identifying targets of true value.

Going to be a mini arms-race with these things I think.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The only thing I like seeing more than FPV drone attacks is FPV drone attacks being done en-mas

Throughout this war we have seen various PGMs come into play.  I think that FPV kamikaze drones may be the most dangerous to frontline stability.  They make even routine resupply and redeployments incredibly vulnerable.  The FPVs are more maneuverable than their targets, even when their targets are moving full speed.  There is nothing else on the battlefield that can make that claim at these ranges without LOS (Javelin, for example).  All other PGMs in use by Ukraine are well suited for hitting stationary targets, not moving ones.  Not even Excalibur can hit a fast moving vehicle in complex terrain, but a FPV can. 

Besides the capability differences, for the cost of every Excalibur you can have 30-60 FPV drones with a logistics tail as complex as a quad bike and 2 guys.  Much harder for the enemy to find and eliminate a quad bike or pickup truck than a M777 or PzH2000.  And if there's an equipment loss or damage situation, you just need to put the guys into anything else that moves.  Cripes, a Lada would work.

I've realized these things were a game changer for some time now.  Yet I'm still trying to grasp how much of a change they bring to the battlefield.

Steve

And what's really crazy is that all this is but a taster for when the offensive truly kicks off.

Holy cow but we will see the ACW-type precursor of the next form of war.

[chrisl]

Drones should be very susceptible to EW, given that they need a two-way connection and are sending fairly high data volumes of video.  The FPVs don't need super high resolution, particularly if there are other overwatch drones in the area, but they still need better than NTSC and the overwatch drones are all HD.  Part of why Ukraine has been so successful with them is the Russia is so limited in their EW ability.  They probably can't produce enough interference in the drones to render them useless without taking out their own comms (bad as those comms might also be).  

The next generations of drones for dealing with more capable EW systems will likely see a lot more autonomy, and also narrow field of view communication back to the controller.  But autonomy will really be critical - get them into the right zone and let them loose.  Not something that would have been suitable for most of the conflicts the US has been involved in for the past 25-30 years, where armed targets are hidden in populated civilian areas and often indistinguishable, but reasonable for a conventional war with battle lines, uniforms, and identifiable military vehicles.

[Kinophile]

2 new military districts, 120000 additional soldiers,  in whatever amount of imaginary brigades. 

Shuffle the deckchairs all ye want, Titanic is still gonna sink. 

[panzermartin]

I think drone swarms can prolong a war or guerilla infinitely. A few organized people will be able to hold a whole division this way. Imagine the US occupation in Iraq facing swarms of guerilla drones. I hope the anti drone technology advances soon enough though... I don't really like this nerdy way of warfare. Especially for the poor infantry that dies with no chance to fight back. A 13yr old kid from his basement, can take out a platoon of experienced battle hardened veterans. If there is a chance to become a veteran in 2023 battlefield that is... 

In general our world is becoming progressively nerdy. From war to movies, to AI art and music. There will be less warriors, true spiritual people, artists, musicians in the next generation, and in general less people that inspire other people. Only algorithm servants. Progress? Maybe. A more coherent collective humanity for the loss of individual quality. 

Ok sorry for the phllilosophical off topic. 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by panzermartin

[Seedorf81]

Hopefully these drones will also be used for something more positive than just killing people.

I for one would not be surprised at all if before 2024 we see the first medevac with a drone.

 

[Kraft]

13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

poor infantry [does the dying]

A tale as old as time itself!

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

I think the Ukrainians will say something like "the unit commander used to be a lawyer, and he says he likes his orcs deep fried in their own diesel, works for us".

Ok, now I am stealing a quote.

[panzermartin]

52 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

Hopefully these drones will also be used for something more positive than just killing people.

I for one would not be surprised at all if before 2024 we see the first medevac with a drone.

 

I'm sure they will. They are already in sparse use I think in  first aid in mountain rescue. Personally, I'm a little disappointed how much money and tehcnology has been invested in advanced warfare, while I see our forests here burning every year and disappearing because we are using the same old tech from the 50s to extinguish fires. Air manned assets that can't fly in strong winds , night or close to the fire. I think drone tech can help immensly here, with bigger unmanned platforms flying 24h around the clock and scrambling immediately to the first sign of fire. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

A 13yr old kid from his basement, can take out a platoon of experienced battle hardened veterans. If there is a chance to become a veteran in 2023 battlefield that is... 

Well the fact is that the 13 year old kid is the battle hardened veteran in this scenario.

There is a line stretching back eons of human civilization of old men saying exactly what you are here - “Back in my day we smashed each others heads in with rocks.  Now these kids are throwing pointy sticks!?  Oh humanity!”  Insert muskets, machine guns, artillery, aircraft, ATGMs and now UAS, same thing.

Best advice from history is “get over it, fast.”  Warfare does not care about philosophy, it only cares about victory or defeat.  Ukraine can figure out what to do about its individual qualities once they establish that they are able to survive.

[panzermartin]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well the fact is that the 13 year old kid is the battle hardened veteran in this scenario.

There is a line stretching back eons of human civilization of old men saying exactly what you are here - “Back in my day we smashed each others heads in with rocks.  Now these kids are throwing pointy sticks!?  Oh humanity!”  Insert muskets, machine guns, artillery, aircraft, ATGMs and now UAS, same thing.

Best advice from history is “get over it, fast.”  Warfare does not care about philosophy, it only cares about victory or defeat.  Ukraine can figure out what to do about its individual qualities once they establish that they are able to survive.

Yes of course! In life or death situations like this you either evolve or die. And in a lot other aspects of modern life. Let's hope that the infantryman will be banned from the battlefield or be more protected in the future at least... 

Still from a philosophical/lifestyle point of view I'd prefer less evolving per milsecond in general . I always have a greater time in my tent or hammoch than in high tech overpriced massive resorts destroying a forest or beach, even if I can afford them. But most people think, this is evolution.. 

[panzermartin]

Back to warfare, I think this from the drone /pantsir duel posted here some pages ago? But from the pantsir crew POV. 

https://t.me/CyberspecNews/32236

[DesertFox]

russia destroying russia to fight russians fighting russians in russia.

 

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1665316594455642113?s=20

 

[Haiduk]

On 6/3/2023 at 2:59 PM, Beleg85 said:

Highly recommended article, from person at place:

https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/

Younger officers are more open to Western military–style leadership, while older officers have clung to Soviet doctrine. 

Alas, this is by-effect of mass mobilization and establishing of dozens new brigades, expanding of Operative Commands HQs, etc. All this required alot of command staff, but where to get it? There are many retired officers, who finished their service before 2014 and even earlier. Mobilization age for retired high-ranked officers in Ukriane is 65 years. Negative effects have been becaming to develop since 2016, when large number of "old schooll" officers were mobilized (and not only major+, but of lower ranks and former NCOs). Now their number has increased much more. Most of these officers have a strong Soviet army upbringing with tough centralization of decisions making, formalism, thoughtlessly following to paper instructions even they are obsolete and don't match anymore with real situation, most of them are "bureacrats-servicemen", but not "warriors" "I'm a chief - you are a fool", "initiative is punishable". Many of new formed brigades have very avarage results due these commanders and because of the same old staff now moved also in trainig centers, where sodiers still be train by Soviet time program, just slightly upgraded diring ATO, but in current war it mostly useless. Alternative training centers for infantrymen and sqaud leadrs, where their new training program proves own high effectiveness, can't embrace enough of personnel and even these efforts continously encounter resistance of differnt HQs, where oak-headed colonels consider these trainings didn't match to current instructions, thus are illegal and unproper. Alas, all attempts of Zaluzhnyi and other top commanders to promote these innovations into official training program still stuck in bureaucracy swamp, which more similar to sabotage. Just "old staff" can't rebuild themeselves to new reality, they are just so accustomed to do and don't want to change anything, they also resist to cancling lot of paper works for officers, because then a presence of most of them will lose any sence as "journal checkers". So, as said one our soldier at the begining of war, and who's words became a meme "Russians are losing not because we are so strong, but because they are much more stupid then we are"   

Edited June 4, 2023 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Also, Polish Volunteer Corps reportedly participates in the liberation of Bilhorod:

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Huba

[Beleg85]

39 minutes ago, Huba said:

Also, Polish Volunteer Corps reportedly participates in the liberation of Bilhorod:

Yup, highly controversial insignia and fact they hung out with RVC neo-nazis did make this unit divisive here. On other side, commander seemed very ok guy, and after initial hesitation they now have support of some civilian volunteers who provide them with material support. At least one platoon is fighting in Zaporzihia direction, the rest is with RVC in Russia...

Now let's wait till American Voluntary Corps arrives.

meanwhile, Prig claims AFU took some terrain south of Bakhmut:

 

 

Edited June 4, 2023 by Beleg85