How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

Sabotage suspected by Russian media as fuel tanker cars derail near Ulyanovsk in Russia (yahoo.com)

Russian media report that the derailment of the cars, which were carrying gas and gasoline, could have been an act of sabotage.

Traces of damage to the railroad tracks were found at the scene. No official comments have been made available yet.

In total, two railroad cars derailed, one of which overturned on its side.

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, IanL said:

Careful there. Such bombing campaigns against civilians have never worked. They still don't. My bold above sounds like you are using the same justification that everyone else used when justifying their civilian bombing campaign.

Not at all.  The theory of those other campaigns was deeply flawed.  Terror campaigns against a unified population has never worked.  This is not what Ukraine is doing now or is capable of doing in the future, therefore even if I thought it would work (which it won't), it is beyond Ukraine's capabilities anyway.

See previous posts I made to understand better what I am talking about.

14 minutes ago, IanL said:

 

I would argue that major difference was that that bombing campaign did not target civilians to "break their morale".

Correct, which is why I am saying the Serbia example is far closer to what Ukraine is doing than Tokyo, London, etc.

The NATO campaign against Serbia was intended to cause the military harm, but it was also intended to have internal political pressure put on the Serbian government.  From what I can tell NATO achieved both goals and that, in turn, secured the objectives of the campaign.

Whether NATO was thinking "fiction" or "will to fight" is immaterial.  The Serbian bombing campaign was successful in part because it did change the political calculus for continuing the war. 

Steve

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Some good stuff on its way...

 

 

Just saw one heading NW from the SE over Long Island which is unusual around here. 

[Battlefront.com]

Report that a large number of Wagnerites were killed/wounded while leaving Bakhmut.  Can't say I wasn't waiting to hear something like this.  Obviously no way to confirm this yet, but still happy to see it:

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3716044-ukrainian-forces-fired-on-wagnerites-leaving-bakhmut-80-killed-119-wounded.html

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

It also looks like the number of drones was closer to 5 than 25.

 

Is that drone even being shot down, or did it just spontaneously explode? Video quality is not the best, but I didn't see tracers or a missile, and I heard no guns firing.

A bit like the drone over the Kremlin, it also looked like it was set to explode in the air on a timer or by a GPS coordinate.

And just like the Kremlin drones, maybe they were intended to send a signal rather than to cause any real damage on the ground.

[Vanir Ausf B]

[FancyCat]

nvm

Edited May 30, 2023 by FancyCat
tweets got deleted

[A Canadian Cat]

On 5/29/2023 at 11:57 AM, danfrodo said:

1.  How will Prig die?  We should start a poll on this.  He's rather high profile for a balcony accident.  'Heart attack' is possible.  But why not get some popular outrage going?  I think an FSB bomb that is then claimed to have been planted by UKR 'terrorists' to take a out a great RU hero.  That's my vote.

Good guess.

I was thinking we should see if we can concocted a scenario that combines as many of the tropes as we can:

I think he will meet Putin for poison tea on the 10th floor of a hospital. As he is leaving he will loose his balance after shooting himself in the head twice and the chest six times and then fall down four flights of stairs and through a window on the 8th floor.

[FancyCat]

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/05/30/putin-administration-instructs-state-run-media-to-emphasize-authorities-response-to-drone-attacks-and-downplay-some-officials-comments

Quote

Note the “successful work of air defense forces”;

Report that the reaction from the “federal services” and the city and regional authorities was “immediate” and that their work was “high-quality and focused”;

Emphasize that the goal of the “provocation” was not achieved;

Stress that the attack was intended to have a “psychological” effect but that residents demonstrated “calm and restraint.”

The Putin administration’s “guide” also said that if propaganda outlets quote comments made Tuesday by State Duma Deputy Alexander Khinshtein, Center for the Development of Transport Technologies head Alexey Rogozin, or former “DNR” Defense Minister Igor Strelkov, they should portray them in a negative light.

Khinshtein published a list of sites in the Moscow region where downed drones fell and called it Russia’s “new reality.” Rogozin spoke to reporters about what types of drones may have been used in the attacks. Strelkov wrote on Telegram that Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin was “urgently forming groups to be sent to Donetsk, Horlivka, and Shebekino to familiarize themselves with the experience institutions in those cities have had under conditions of the negative impact of drones.”

 

[A Canadian Cat]

On 5/28/2023 at 11:43 PM, Battlefront.com said:

...Because making no decision is a decision, Putin has effectively decided his army is going to get suffer large enough casualties that he'll have to either mobilize or negotiate with an even weaker hand. Grey zone stuff won't change the equation.

Well played, Putin

I remain the master strategist.

Fixed that for ya.

[Beleg85]

Some pictures emerged on Russian TG's of another S-400 command set that successfully intercepted NATO-made missile; still not confirmed.

 

[Butschi]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

First, there is no terror bombing campaign by Ukraine against Russia.

True, of course. We've seen one strike and we can't be sure about the intended target. So, currently, there is no air campaign at all, terror or otherwise. But if you use that to argue that my comparison is invalid - and that is certainly a legitimate point - then really so is your comparison with Kosovo... and really our little argument here is kind of moot.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Third, Ukraine's use of drones *are* precision weapons, therefore it is more akin to what NATO did against Serbia and not V-1s over London.

True, again. My intention for quoting that was not to stress the "precision" part but the "avoiding civilian casualties to the greatest extent possible"-part. While precision is an enabler for avoiding civilian casualties it is (obviously...) not identical. Nazi Germany would have targeted civilians with V-1s even had it been precision weapons.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Lastly, I don't think anybody in the West is going to lose sleep over this.  The Russians have been wiping Ukrainian villages and cities off the map since this war started.  Ukraine has ever right to strike back, especially if it is not deliberately targeting civilians.  Which, so far, they do not seem to be doing.

This is really the part where I can't honestly agree with. Again, we don't know what the intended target was and I don't claim it was civilians.

You are right, so far there is no terror bombing campaign and if we are only discussing the current situation than there is really no reason for me to make such a fuss about it.

But we are regularly discussing "what if"-scenarios and possible futures. And in such a discussion I am concerned about which direction this conflict might be heading - sorry for being such a foolish idealist. Of course Ukraine has the right to strike back! Ukraine would not, however, have the right to strike back at civilians, neither morally nor legally. The fact that Russia does it, too, wouldn't make it any more right and if we argue otherwise our precious rules based order is worth nothing. So the "if" in your "if it is not deliberately targeting civilians." is the crucial part. Of course Ukraine has to be presumed innocent until proven otherwise and from the current track record they deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt, anyway. So, I will leave it at that.

[Haiduk]

13 hours ago, Kinophile said:

What really matters is which aircraft. Losing the few SU-24s right now (even just 2 of them), the only UKR planes that can carry Storm Shadows, would be a very unwelcome development.

Interesting that UKR military officials never say about losses after the any strike. And suddenly - "airfield damage, fuel depot in fire, 5 aircraft were taken out". Even some Russian milbloggers wrote own doubts - maybe this is just PsyOps, because weren't any videos even distant with huge smoke over Starikostintyniv airfield. 

PS. Reportedly for Storm Shadows were upgraded Su-24MR 

[cesmonkey]

Another Kofman podcast episode, if you like:
 

 

[womble]

59 minutes ago, IanL said:

I think he will meet Putin for poison tea on the 10th floor of a hospital. As he is leaving he will loose his balance after shooting himself in the head twice and the chest six times and then fall down four flights of stairs and through a window on the 8th floor.

I think he'll have a terrible allergic reaction, stumble down a staircase and through a window, unfortunately slashing his throat on shards of glass, then land on some bullets outside.

Twice.

[Beleg85]

One drone reportedly fall several hundred ms from residence of Russian PM Mishustin, 500m from Shoigu residence. Those people-and what worse, their properties- were likely never so close to danger in their entire lives. You can't easily move away your several mlns rubbls worth estate in most posh Moscow neighborhood next to Big Boss. And now you know it is in crosshairs...

New WOTR dropped with Kofman.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/05/ukraines-offensive-and-its-meaning-for-the-war/

[BlackMoria]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

True, of course. We've seen one strike and we can't be sure about the intended target. So, currently, there is no air campaign at all, terror or otherwise. But if you use that to argue that my comparison is invalid - and that is certainly a legitimate point - then really so is your comparison with Kosovo... and really our little argument here is kind of moot.

True, again. My intention for quoting that was not to stress the "precision" part but the "avoiding civilian casualties to the greatest extent possible"-part. While precision is an enabler for avoiding civilian casualties it is (obviously...) not identical. Nazi Germany would have targeted civilians with V-1s even had it been precision weapons.

This is really the part where I can't honestly agree with. Again, we don't know what the intended target was and I don't claim it was civilians.

You are right, so far there is no terror bombing campaign and if we are only discussing the current situation than there is really no reason for me to make such a fuss about it.

But we are regularly discussing "what if"-scenarios and possible futures. And in such a discussion I am concerned about which direction this conflict might be heading - sorry for being such a foolish idealist. Of course Ukraine has the right to strike back! Ukraine would not, however, have the right to strike back at civilians, neither morally nor legally. The fact that Russia does it, too, wouldn't make it any more right and if we argue otherwise our precious rules based order is worth nothing. So the "if" in your "if it is not deliberately targeting civilians." is the crucial part. Of course Ukraine has to be presumed innocent until proven otherwise and from the current track record they deserve to be given the benefit of the doubt, anyway. So, I will leave it at that.

I don't get the pearl clutching here.   Nobody is expecting a 'clean' war because it is nearly impossible to do.  Civilian casualties happen in war, no way to avoid it.  Coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan killed thousands of civilians over the long course of those conflicts and that was with Coalition forces trying to avoid civilian casualties.  But mistakes are made, coordinates are wrong, incorrect identification of the target, intel is bad, etc. etc.  In short, s**t happens.  Nobody likes it but happens.    

The main difference between Russia and Ukraine is that Russia isn't even trying to avoid civilian casualties.  Ukraine is at least trying to avoid that.    But the moment you start lobbing missile or drones into someone else's country, there is always the chance that a civilian target get hit by accident.   I think most people, even the minimally informed public, understand this.  We have seen this rodeo in every conflict of the late 20th century.   People know that wars are not clean affairs in which only the enemy combatants get kill or wounded. 

Edited May 30, 2023 by BlackMoria

[womble]

Russia's messaging appears to be a bit all over the place, on the drones:

Quote

 

P: They were aimed at killing civilians!

Asks no one: How many did they kill?

P: None, because we shot them all down.

Asks no one: If you shot them down, how do you know what they were aimed at?

[tumbleweed]

P: Anyway. This was an atrocity by the terrorist regime in Kyiv. Raining ordnance on civilian targets is a war crime.

Sez no one: Wot, like you've been doing to Kyiv continuously for a few nights and off-and-on for over a year now?

 

 

It'd be so sweet of the Western Powers chose to take this admission of guilt as a chance to name Russia at least a State Sponsor of Terrorism. S'pose they'd have to do the same to Ukraine too, though, in that case.

I think the actor (whoever this is) missed a trick though. If the warheads were disarmed or removed, they could have been replaced with leaflets. Or blue and yellow smoke. Or a mix of both.

 

[Haiduk]

About attack on Moscow. Brilliant blow, which had not military sence and not such moral punch, but an action to grow more "uncertainity" and to cause more cracks both between influent figures and inside Russian society.

Here is a map of drone crashes and impacts

 

In yellow square is a location of Putin's residence in Novo-Ogariovo. Also many impacts were in elite suburbs of Moscow - Rubliovka, Barvikha, Greenfield were lives "fat of the land". Many of Russians adore Putin, but have "class hate" on oligarchs and very rich inhabitants of theese elite suburbs, where average check in local restaurant can be more than month salary of usual Russian citizen somewhere in province. 

So we have:

1. GUR fueled much more the withstanding of Prigozhyn and MoD. Now Prigizhyn in very brutal manner has spoke out not only about stupid generals, who passed this UAVs, but also against authotity officials , "who are doing nothing and just sit in own comfort armchairs on theit asses, smeared with expensive elite cremes" 

2. Reaction of usual Russians on the strike on elite "oliarch" suburbs was mostly malevoilent. This reaction was so mass, that Solovyov was forced to scold own compatriots for such position

 

 

Average-class elite cottage in Rubliovka, hit by drone

 

3. Most of Russian (so-called) liberals, follwers of Navalnyi, completely showed own imperial inside covered with exclaims "why us?". Who had illusions, but they obviously agaist Putin, but they are the same chauvinists and imperialists. 

From other probable targets: 

Reportedly the distillery was hit in Ostachevo, suburb of Moscow

Russian ballerine Volochkova, posted a storys where told she heard explosions nearby her home, where military unit is located. OSINT community has found this place near Nikolo-Uriupino town - this is m/u 11105-2 - the base and stores of one of battalions of 1st engineer-sapper brigade (deployed in Murom city) 

 

And about "attack on innocent civilans". These "innocent civilians" voted for Putin and all pro-Kremlin parties or where just indeifferent ("we are out of policy"). But indifference of millions born dictature of one. But all they - "vatniks and enough number of "indiffernet liberals", all they wanted a "small victorious war" to feel own imperial "greateness". They wanted "to repeat" and reach Berlin and Atlantic as they have seen this in stupid TV-animations . So, time to pay bills. This is even not allied carpet bombing of German cities, settled by "innocent Germans" in WWII. This is just an opportunity to feel the snickering Moscow, what feel Ukranians in own cities, when they hear almost each night explosions in the sky or on the land. 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Vanir Ausf B]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly the distillery was hit in Ostachevo, suburb of Moscow

Perfect. Take away the vodka and there WILL be blood in the streets.

[Haiduk]

 

This is residental building in Kyiv, being struck by Shakhed this night. 1 killed woman (she came to balcony to look how AD work and in this monent the drone hit the house) and 22 injured settlers. 

The city was attacked yesterday three times throughout of 24 hours (Shakeds + Kh-101, then Iskanders, then Shakheds again). Most dangerous attack Russians conducted at 11:00 of morning, when many people already were on streets on foot, in cars or in public transport. 11 ballistic missiles and cruise missiles Iskander-M/ Iskander-K where launched. My "aerophobia" of Feb2022 turned back, when I heard multiple missile sounds over my house. Well, then I read theses were Patriots... They intercepted all missiles again, but their upper stages have been falling on streets, full of people. In was a God's lucky and protection - that only one citizen was wounded with these parts

Here is how vere lucky, those, who drove along the road, when part of Petriot fell

So, let Moscow burn. No mercy. 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

3rd assault brigade continues to push back Russians toward Klishchiivka and SE along canal

 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Seedorf81]

This is pretty ridiculous.

South-Africa changes the law so not to follow the law?! (So they don't have to arrest Putin when he visits.)

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-africa-65361205?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=64761bce3d616e0a28d068a7%26South Africa to change law to stop arrest of Putin%262023-05-30T16%3A30%3A28.324Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:005fa370-a777-409e-bed0-f6ffc7bfd80a&pinned_post_asset_id=64761bce3d616e0a28d068a7&pinned_post_type=share

Edited May 30, 2023 by Seedorf81
link trouble

[Beleg85]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

From other probable targets: 

Reportedly the distillery was hit in Ostachevo, suburb of Moscow

Now that is targeting valid war resource!

Thanks for great post. As we see on snippet from Solovyov program (phenomenon "perfect strike!" was much more widespread on the net, where Russians write freely), this shows how wide gaps are in Russian thinking about "national unity" and Western ones. Almost like they must be whipped from the top to become "patriots".

Btw. it seems it will be another night of alarms in Kyiv. Keep safe @Haiduk.

Edited May 30, 2023 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

Effect of the Yalta strike. No, not that Yalta...