How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

55 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

 

 

 

Worth to note he is pro-Russian source, basing heavily on info from muscovite (more sober) forums.

 

There is interesting debate between Galeoti an other "kremlinologists" about state of Putin's hubris, maybe worth to look on as it translates to what we discussed here (level of actual understanding of military situation):

 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Beleg85

[mosuri]

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

https://news.yahoo.com/president-belarus-hospitalised-meeting-putin-204642610.html

There is a rumor, emphasize rumor, that Lukashenko went straight from a meeting with Putin to a hospital in Moscow.

There are two theories floating around, that Putin did it, or that they are desperately trying to keep him alive so they won't be blamed for doing it. Not sure which one I find funnier.

Would be even funnier if it was both, Putin first having a "will no one rid me of this troublesome potato" moment followed by "you did WHAT?"

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There is interesting debate between Galeoti an other "kremlinologists" about state of Putin's hubris, maybe worth to look on as it translates to what we discussed here (level of actual understanding of military situation):

 

That was a good read.  Thanks.

I am solidly on Stanovaya's perspective that Putin puts off the hard decisions because he believes time is an ally, not an enemy.  He pulls at various threads and waits to see if something comes unraveled.  The more difficult something is, the more he waits to see if something develops that gives him more or better options.  This is traditional Putin methodology.

The new(ish) element in this whole war is that Putin is that others are actively engaged in thwarting him.  Not just pushing back here and there, but an across the board assault on all his efforts.  Additionally, Russia's enemies are themselves implementing proactive actions which are outside of his control.  This obligates Putin to react more than he's used to.

Fundamentally the question of whether Putin is indecisive or patient comes down to how in touch with reality he is and how bad his messiah complex really is. 

My guess is that the quality of information reaching Putin isn't universally terrible, but bad news is probably delayed and watered down.  Putin's messiah complex hinders him questioning what he is told because he believes he has things under control.  In short, Putin is being given an imperfect view and he's prone to believing it.

The mobilization for this year is a good example.  Objectively the Russian military should know that they can't last months without a major influx of replacements, because even under the best battlefield circumstances they are going to lose more than they can afford.  It is possible that the Russian military doesn't fundamentally grasp this coming reality, but I suspect they do.  Therefore, the question is... have they strenuously informed Putin?  I suspect not.  Therefore, Putin is likely keeping mobilization on hold in order to "wait and see" how things develop, not because he is procrastinating on making a decision that he likely understands comes with great risks and definite costs.  And this one thing might cost them the entire war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, mosuri said:

Would be even funnier if it was both, Putin first having a "will no one rid me of this troublesome potato" moment followed by "you did WHAT?"

Heh   You joke, but that is the sort of thing that happens in regimes like this.  I don't think so in this case, but it can't be rules out.

There was a big debate within Kremlinologists about the killing of Boris Nemtsov.  One group felt that Putin was behind it and wanted him killed on Kremlin territory to make the message loud and clear that challenging Putin's rule means death.  Another group felt that Kadyrov acted on his own in order to gain power and influence by "taking care of" a difficult problem that the FSB wasn't willing to touch. 

Back then I saw either possibility as plausible, but today I don't think anybody is willing to put their necks on the line for anything.  The stakes are way too high and Putin's shown that he has "an itchy trigger finger".  Anybody high up enough to carry out a unilateral action like poisoning Luka is probably reluctant to do anything like that unless explicitly ordered to do so.

And now a meme...

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Detailed view (no translations) of a prisoner exchange conducted with Wagner last week.

Steve

[chris talpas]

Another Perun video drops.  This time about Storm Shadow and other long range weapons.

 

 

[Yet]

interesting read? 

its not the yay yay echochamber narrative, but seems an interesting view. 

we have seen things in Ukr blowing up pretty badly, no followup immediately on the tour to Belogorod. Kerch stands still (though i think thats a strategic choice to wait). It doesnt at all look bad for Ukr, but so far it does seem that its not all rozes and daffodils on the front; is RU really more resilient against the logistics attacks than in the Khar/Cher offensive?

https://eurasiantimes.com/storm-shadow-disappoints-ukraines-counter-offensive-sputters/

at least its good to remember that it isnt surely as pink and easy as pictured on a lot of media and (other) forums. 

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, Yet said:

interesting read? 

its not the yay yay echochamber narrative, but seems an interesting view. 

we have seen things in Ukr blowing up pretty badly, no followup immediately on the tour to Belogorod. Kerch stands still (though i think thats a strategic choice to wait). It doesnt at all look bad for Ukr, but so far it does seem that its not all rozes and daffodils on the front; is RU really more resilient against the logistics attacks than in the Khar/Cher offensive?

https://eurasiantimes.com/storm-shadow-disappoints-ukraines-counter-offensive-sputters/

at least its good to remember that it isnt surely as pink and easy as pictured on a lot of media and (other) forums. 

We have seen this sort of assessment before and frankly it kinda lands in the “opinion” pile.  We have seen no evidence of sustained effective logistical strikes on the UA that are causing operational level disruption.  That would be incredibly hard to hide in this day and age.  Stuff like a lot of UA equipment out of gas, large ammunition shortfalls etc.  We do see things exploding in the RA backfield pretty much daily.  We have heard HIMARs are no longer effective, now Storm Shadow is kaput as well.  

All of this is largely guessing and opinion without any real evidence to back it up.  I trust publications like RUSI that outline the shortfalls they are working with up front.  They clearly highlight the bias risk and lack of information.  Pieces like this do not.  They spout off a lot of “facts” with little or zero reference evidence to back it up.  And have no caveats to speak of, this is presented as iron clad conclusions.

In the end we shall see.  If the UA offensive sputters or simply does not shape up at all, well then apparently something has changed.  Perhaps Russian AD and AirPower have finally gotten it together enough to freeze this thing up.  Or maybe this is all nonsense and we will be talking about the Crimea as a military operation by this Fall.

[Beleg85]

46 minutes ago, Yet said:

interesting read? 

The author says Russians neutralized HIMARs advantage in large part. Not sure frankly, depots and troops were being blown up barely month ago and muscovite milbloggers cried out loudly command learned nothing. And nobody seriously expect another Kharkiv too, this will be surely more even gruelling fight.

Also I am curious where he found source for these Storm Shadow being shot down. Russian MoD  ? Weather conditions are also favourable maybe from a week or so, unlike stated in article.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Beleg85

[Offshoot]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Also I am curious where he found source for these Storm Shadow being shot down. Russian MoD  ?

I went looking but didn't find anything. Reuters themselves said they couldn't independently verify claims about a shot down Storm Shadow, so for this article to present them as facts is a red flag. It feels like the author is more interested in showing that "Our analysis proved to be correct".

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

https://eurasiantimes.com/

Wasnt this source discussed before as pushing pro-russian narrative in disguise? 

Like all the 'deeply concerned for Ukraine' western media outlets

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

Wasnt this source discussed before as pushing pro-russian narrative in disguise? 

Like all the 'deeply concerned for Ukraine' western media outlets

well if it wasn't that article certainly pushed it into the "too stupid to read column".

[Centurian52]

On 5/27/2023 at 2:10 AM, Holien said:

Don't count on the UK as a capable military we have serious issues with our finances which have impacted our military. I would suggest America gets closer with Europe who combined have a more capable military than the UK.

I wouldn't count the UK military out just yet. It may not be able to stand on its own anymore. But it can still provide valuable capabilities to plug into a larger NATO force.

[The_MonkeyKing]

The best trench footage I have seen so far. Radio traffic + GoPro + drone footage. ENG subtitles 

 

[Yet]

I didnt point out 'everything in this article is correct' at all. Eurasian times has a bit of everything, pro Ru, pro Ukr, indep etc. However mainly easy bait and not thorough backed by facts analysis. Esp the headlines should better be discarded as they swing any article at this site into 100% crap or 100% awsome. I gauge the public here to understand and read between the lines. 

question was not 'will RU now totally blow Ukr over and get a freeze at this line.'

The question is: did RU wings and AD find their swing? .. indeed posted here because I (quick search) also couldn't really find evidence for one way or the other. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Yet

[Vet 0369]

On 5/26/2023 at 5:49 PM, DesertFox said:

Some De Havilland Mosquito Mk VI crews might want to disagree with your statement. 

 

Welllll, there is a major difference between a B-17 or Lancaster dropping their bombs from an altitude of thousands of feet, and a Mosquito, crewed by elite and very practiced members of a Squadron that constantly practices low-level “skip type” bombing raids. First, one set (group?) of bombers took out the wall and others took out the guard barracks (they might have taken out the guard barracks first, I don’t remember). However, even with the relatively extraordinary accuracy, some of the prisoners were killed in the bombing. It was a “wake-up call” for the Nazis.

[akd]

More extensive footage of this previously seen attack by 30th Mech Bde on a fortified position under a bridge:

 

[Centurian52]

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putin made a big deal out of last week when Putin made the case that Ukraine didn't exist until the Soviet Union made it

I haven't read the article yet, but I really don't get how anyone can claim that the Soviet Union made Ukraine. There was clearly a Ukrainian national identity before the Soviet Union existed, because I specifically remember Ukrainian forces in the Russian Civil War failing to achieve independence where Polish forces succeeded. The outcome of a few battles in the Russian Civil War are the only reason that Ukraine spent the 20th century as an SSR while Poland spent it as an independent country.

But I suppose the important thing that Putin is really missing is that it doesn't matter when Ukraine came into existence or how. Whether or not a country existed in the distant past doesn't give it any more or less right to exist now. I don't think any reasonable person could argue that the Roman Empire (was a country 2,000 years ago) should be brought back at the expense of all the countries currently in its place, any more than any reasonable person could argue that the United States (wasn't a country 300 years ago) should be dissolved. Ukraine is a country now, and that's the only thing that matters.

18 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not only does this map from a few hundred years earlier clearly label clear borders as "Ukraine", but nowhere on the map does it mention "Russia".  Instead there is the "Duchy of Moscow".  Which means, according to Putin's logic, Ukraine exists and Russia does not.

That's a fun bit of irony

Edited May 28, 2023 by Centurian52

[Centurian52]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

Ukraine is getting ready to throw EVERYTHING at some unkown portion of the Russian lines. Everything includes the kitchen sink and the creation above. It can still follow along in the third wave and help make the remnants of some Russian strongpoint miserable until the survivors give up.

I love it! It gives the SPG-9 some much needed mobility, while keeping a lower profile than a truck. In fact it's almost as low a profile as just the gun with the tripod alone.

I remember from CMSF that the SPG-9 can be a pain in the ***, even for a modern army. Small and concealable, and hard hitting enough to threaten everything up to IFVs.

[Centurian52]

4 hours ago, mosuri said:

Would be even funnier if it was both, Putin first having a "will no one rid me of this troublesome potato" moment followed by "you did WHAT?"

This would fit all too perfectly with the decentralized mafia picture that Steve's been painting.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Therefore, Putin is likely keeping mobilization on hold in order to "wait and see" how things develop, not because he is procrastinating on making a decision that he likely understands comes with great risks and definite costs.  And this one thing might cost them the entire war.

Steve

I've been propounding a thesis on this for the last couple of months. Forgive me if this lacks clarity as I'm still thinking it through but essentially, it comes down to 'live by grey zone tactics, die by grey zone tactics". Putin was used to working on the margins of Western attention. The methodology was to always aggress in an indirect way or where the costs/benefits to oppositional powers weren't in line. Georgia, Crimea, meddling in Ukrainian politics, etc were always kept to levels that didn't challenge Western interests enough for any decisive intervention. Russia always matched those efforts with investments, influence campaigns and economic pressure to help tip the balance in their favor. But the aggressions where applied were always intense and decisive (i.e. Syria, Georgia, 2014 Ukraine).

The 2022 invasion inverted that whole structure. Putin decided to drop the grey zone tactics and try to run the table in Ukraine. This time, the influence, investment and economic pressure were also applied but at no more intensity than Russia had done in early, far less significant endeavors. The aggression was direct and directly challenged the security of virtually every stronger power in the world with the possible exception of China. And yet, the grey zone mentality still showed itself. Russia just tried to apply it to the actual military action. The invasion was under resourced in military terms and instead rested on multiple layers of subversion, bribery and subterfuge. 

This was obviously completely inadequate for purpose. And yet, Putin's regime is still in that space. It is locked in a high intensity conflict with an ever more competent and technologically superior foe backed by potentially overwhelming allies and still....still...is trying to leverage a weaker hand. In other words, it's not procrastination. It's a mindset.

[panzermartin]

On 5/14/2023 at 9:31 PM, billbindc said:

He almost certainly will lose. The question is whether or not he accepts the loss and has the power to get away with it. Istanbul and Ankara aren’t counted yet.

Just a reminder that not everything we certainly, firmly believe in this forum turns out right. Erdogan won the turkish elections once again.

[Vet 0369]

On 5/26/2023 at 9:10 PM, Kraft said:

Debt has very little to do with "75 years operating beyond its means playing 'global superpower'".

Vast majority of it has come with the last 3 presidents, so from 2009 onwards, which mostly saw a downscaling of outside commitment.

 

 

I really don’t want to get involved in something over which I personally have absolutely no control, but the major debt results from 18 years of funding the war in Iraq, Afghanistan, and against ISIS. That was four U.S. Presidents, and the U.S. Congress that was controlled by both Democrats and Republicans. EVERYONE bears part of the blame, not one Party or the the other. In fact, the previous President, Clinton, even though he was at the very least culpable in the cost of the wars, was the last U.S. President AND Congress that actually passed a balanced budget that resulted in a budget surplus.

[Vet 0369]

On 5/26/2023 at 9:02 PM, BlackMoria said:

At this point in time, I give it a 90% chance the US defaults and the train called the economy goes over the cliff.   It should not have come to this but here we are...standing at the cliff's edge and that train is coming awfully fast and it doesn't look like going to even attempt to put on the brakes.  And if it goes over the cliff....what does this all mean for Western support for Ukraine?   That is the question haunting me right now.

 

I have no doubt that the “Crisis” will be resolved in time. What you have been seeing and hearing are political “drandstanding” to position for the next General elections via reports from the Left- and Right-leaning media outlets that have their own agendas. The reason I believe it will be resolved in time to avoid default. Neither Party wants to give the other to say “We tried to avoid it, but THEY wouldn’t negotiate in good faith.”

[womble]

5 hours ago, mosuri said:

Would be even funnier if it was both, Putin first having a "will no one rid me of this troublesome potato" moment followed by "you did WHAT?"

I said, "Look after him," not "Look after him!"