How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There are enigmatic suggestions from one of volunteers there is much more under the surface that is going in entire Belgorod thing. Clashes are reported along several settlements, but OpSec is very tight. Meanwhile, artillery is ravaging frontline near Zaprozhia too; Mariuopl and Berdyansk are struck daily. Anyway, we are close.

I think they may try to grill muscovites even several days/week more before attacking in force. We will see how Russians manage to defend the border with forces at hand- they had factor of surprise against them during RVC/FRL attack which is now lost.

The Belgorod incursion had the feeling of a bold recon mission intended to test certain theories about Russian deployments and their ability to respond to stress.  Ukraine is no doubt monitoring the situation to see what concrete steps Russia takes to deal with similar incursions in the near future.  If the steps are sufficient to preclude more raids, then it likely means Russia drew resources away from other places.  Success.  On the other hand, if the weaknesses persist, then further raids in direct connection with the ground portion of the counter offensive could prove more than just troublesome.

Either way, Ukraine gains an advantage over leaving the border region alone.

Steve

[akd]

31 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Ref Ivan,  things are developing ontheUkr side.  Soon they'll be able to strike from the air,  surface e and subsurface,  simultaneously. 

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/17551

subsurface forces are already trained

 

[Battlefront.com]

A fun analysis of the map that Putin made a big deal out of last week when Putin made the case that Ukraine didn't exist until the Soviet Union made it.  Not only does this map from a few hundred years earlier clearly label clear borders as "Ukraine", but nowhere on the map does it mention "Russia".  Instead there is the "Duchy of Moscow".  Which means, according to Putin's logic, Ukraine exists and Russia does not.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4022705-putin-needs-a-geography-lesson/

Steve

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A fun analysis of the map that Putin made a big deal out of last week when Putin made the case that Ukraine didn't exist until the Soviet Union made it.  Not only does this map from a few hundred years earlier clearly label clear borders as "Ukraine", but nowhere on the map does it mention "Russia".  Instead there is the "Duchy of Moscow".  Which means, according to Putin's logic, Ukraine exists and Russia does not.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4022705-putin-needs-a-geography-lesson/

Steve

I’m starting to wonder if that moment matters more than we realize yet. That’s beyond bad staff work and into the realm of “just give the old man something to make him happy”. And if you are one of those in the inner circle who wants to win the war you’d have to be thinking “wtf?” watching that charade.

[Letter from Prague]

The world is pretty absurd lately. Russians invading Russia. Ukrainians releasing trailer video for counteroffensive. Putin's map that should show Ukraine not existing and instead it shows it existing, unlike Russia. Taliban attacking Iran using American weapons they took from ANA (I've already seen claims this makes them American proxy).

I do wonder if Putin's map is some kind of Orwellian loyalty test. Everyone knows it is utter nonsense but they have to play along, and dig themselves deeper and deeper.

[dan/california]

https://kyivindependent.com/illia-ponomarenko-why-some-ukrainian-soldiers-use-nazi-related-insignia/

Well known Ukrainian war reporter takes on the nazi symbol problem. I wouldn't say he says anything the thread hasn't discussed, he doesn't approve of it at all. He does have a very fine grained view of the problem from following the war closely from 2014 on.

[chrisl]

6 hours ago, sburke said:

omfg  a parking garage grog... I should have expected that on this forum.

It came up earlier in discussion of defensive positions.  I thought everybody knew we had a parking garage expert.

[G.I. Joe]

24 minutes ago, chrisl said:

It came up earlier in discussion of defensive positions.  I thought everybody knew we had a parking garage expert.

July 10th of last year, regarding why parking garages are unsuitable for ammunition storage. I managed to search it because I recalled the bon mot about a "slapdash Soviet era Trabbie hutch."

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

It came up earlier in discussion of defensive positions.  I thought everybody knew we had a parking garage expert.

I must admit, after 30 years in the business it was the first time I had to think about the practical problems of creating a firing position for a tank on level B2 of a garage.

[dan/california]

https://news.yahoo.com/president-belarus-hospitalised-meeting-putin-204642610.html

There is a rumor, emphasize rumor, that Lukashenko went straight from a meeting with Putin to a hospital in Moscow.

There are two theories floating around, that Putin did it, or that they are desperately trying to keep him alive so they won't be blamed for doing it. Not sure which one I find funnier.

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

I’m starting to wonder if that moment matters more than we realize yet. That’s beyond bad staff work and into the realm of “just give the old man something to make him happy”. And if you are one of those in the inner circle who wants to win the war you’d have to be thinking “wtf?” watching that charade.

Reminds of the time a world leader showed a hurricane-track probability map.  That had been hand altered w a flippin' sharpie.  Yeah, A-team work, there. 

But the bigger point is yet again another preposterously amatuerish Putin-team propaganda stunt.  If I read this stuff in a novel I'd probably think "yeah, no one is that incompetent".  Yet here we are.  From the start he should've been sticking to a storyline of "This is an internal dispute, foreigners stay out.  Ukraine is a break away region of the Russia and we are simply putting down a local rebellion since the rebels have refused to stand down".  A local rebellion by 44M people who have been independent for 30 years, we would all say.  And Putin team would simply repeat their big lie, over and over, everywhere.  This aint rocket science (I did study a little bit of rocket science, this definitely aint it).

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

I’m starting to wonder if that moment matters more than we realize yet. That’s beyond bad staff work and into the realm of “just give the old man something to make him happy”. And if you are one of those in the inner circle who wants to win the war you’d have to be thinking “wtf?” watching that charade.

The idea Putin is or was some balancer and not a hardcore Russian nationalist seeking to resurrect the Empire died with the invasion in 2022 but I appreciate that old age and COVID continue stripping away what impulses for choosing more moderate lying on his part and the Russian government in terms of foreign PR. I mean anyone seriously pro-Western leaning yet still cautious, I doubt they can look at this ridiculousness and not conclude Minsk III has no chance of being successful. Russian statements from the foreign ministry are completely out of sync for example. Not even a hint of pretending to negotiate, to get the West lured into some sort of lull.

also the pathways for Ukrainians are starting to close for escaping Russia. It’s heartbreaking, and genocidial.

I just wanna point out, Putin murdering Lukashenko to force Belarus into the war is ridiculous. A lot of what Russia does now is ridiculous tho. Sometimes I wonder if Putin and co are trying the “mad dog” threatening stance, to convince the West if they don’t get what they want, the nukes actually will occur so better to fold and give Russia its rightful inheritance. 

35 minutes ago, dan/california said:

https://news.yahoo.com/president-belarus-hospitalised-meeting-putin-204642610.html

There is a rumor, emphasize rumor, that Lukashenko went straight from a meeting with Putin to a hospital in Moscow.

There are two theories floating around, that Putin did it, or that they are desperately trying to keep him alive so they won't be blamed for doing it. Not sure which one I find funnier.

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I just wanna point out, Putin murdering Lukashenko to force Belarus into the war is ridiculous. A lot of what Russia does now is ridiculous tho. Sometimes I wonder if Putin and co are trying the “mad dog” threatening stance, to convince the West if they don’t get what they want, the nukes actually will occur so better to fold and give Russia its rightful inheritance. 

It is a bit simpler than that if you view Russia as an organized crime syndicate.  Putin is at the top (obviously) and is not intimately involved in the details of what goes on below him.  He sets the standards, makes strategic decisions, delegates tasks at the highest level, etc.  He does not order the FSB to interrogate a Ukrainian grandmother to death.  It doesn't even come from personally hiring people who are that brutal.  It comes from those who understand their role and that they are supposed to do things to please their masters.  Because there is no real rule of law, they only have rough guidelines to work from.  Unfortunately for the rest of society, those guidelines are being interpreted by people who were hired specifically because they lacked brains, compassion, integrity, or (often) all of the above.  Since it's easier to ignore problems caused by this system, those who do stupid stuff like this go unpunished/uncorrected.  And so it continues.

Steve

[billbindc]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

The idea Putin is or was some balancer and not a hardcore Russian nationalist seeking to resurrect the Empire died with the invasion in 2022 but I appreciate that old age and COVID continue stripping away what impulses for choosing more moderate lying on his part and the Russian government in terms of foreign PR. I mean anyone seriously pro-Western leaning yet still cautious, I doubt they can look at this ridiculousness and not conclude Minsk III has no chance of being successful. Russian statements from the foreign ministry are completely out of sync for example. Not even a hint of pretending to negotiate, to get the West lured into some sort of lull.

also the pathways for Ukrainians are starting to close for escaping Russia. It’s heartbreaking, and genocidial.

I just wanna point out, Putin murdering Lukashenko to force Belarus into the war is ridiculous. A lot of what Russia does now is ridiculous tho. Sometimes I wonder if Putin and co are trying the “mad dog” threatening stance, to convince the West if they don’t get what they want, the nukes actually will occur so better to fold and give Russia its rightful inheritance. 

 

To your point, Putin already had Lesin working on taking control of Russian media as early as 2004. Where we are now didn't happen overnight but...Putin's methods then realistically took into account what was feasible and what was a stretch. He also wasn't notable for stunts with maps that made him look like an idiot. 

Also, Russia already tried the mad dog approach in this war. Mostly because of the sang froid of Biden, Poland, etc it didn't work. It is even less likely to work now. 

[dan/california]

Ukraine is getting ready to throw EVERYTHING at some unkown portion of the Russian lines. Everything includes the kitchen sink and the creation above. It can still follow along in the third wave and help make the remnants of some Russian strongpoint miserable until the survivors give up.

[Battlefront.com]

ISW report from May 27th sketches out a picture of the Donbas front for the immediate future where Ukraine has ceased offensive activities around Bakhmut for now.  Russian forces are also not engaging in much offensive activity there and decreasing in Avdiivka as well.  DNR forces from Avdiivka are moving into Bakhmut to replace Wagner, and the flanks are being reinforced with regular Russian units drawn from elsewhere.  VDV pulled from the Svatove-Kreminna sector was specifically mentioned, which likely means things will become less active there as well.

It seems both sides are getting ready for the main event and neither plans on it being in the Donbas.

Steve

[FancyCat]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is a bit simpler than that if you view Russia as an organized crime syndicate.  Putin is at the top (obviously) and is not intimately involved in the details of what goes on below him.  He sets the standards, makes strategic decisions, delegates tasks at the highest level, etc.  He does not order the FSB to interrogate a Ukrainian grandmother to death.  It doesn't even come from personally hiring people who are that brutal.  It comes from those who understand their role and that they are supposed to do things to please their masters.  Because there is no real rule of law, they only have rough guidelines to work from.  Unfortunately for the rest of society, those guidelines are being interpreted by people who were hired specifically because they lacked brains, compassion, integrity, or (often) all of the above.  Since it's easier to ignore problems caused by this system, those who do stupid stuff like this go unpunished/uncorrected.  And so it continues.

Steve

I am unsure what your framing is referring to, but if I’m understanding you correctly, you are asserting Russian policy isn’t genocidial in the context of Ukrainians forced to settle in Russia? I don’t think you are asserting that, but definitely Russia has been realizing they are losing on the PR front involving their forced resettlement of Ukrainians and so policy is shifting to stop leaks and well publicized escapes and rescues, and why this occurred in the first place, Ukraine able to score big victories in the info space on this, (if Russia really is genocidal, wouldn’t they be more cautious in keeping it under wraps?) I think is similar to the idea that resulted in the invasion in the first place, the idea that Ukraine and Ukrainians would passively, actively fold to Russia, that obviously Russia would succeed. I mean sure, maybe Putin did force the entire government and country and military to obey him to invade Ukraine and there were those who knew it might fail, organized mafia states don’t allow dissent, but as the mobilizations or lack thereof illustrates, certainly people are aware of actions that result in destruction and will take measures to escape, but like you say yourself, or allude to, Putin is not all powerful, and so, what I’m trying to say, sure the way the Russian state is built is violence, and therefore it’s agents are violent, but all states exist thru the threat of violence and more importantly, on agreement that violence, in return for being controlled and focused, is accepted. The violence of mobilization of Russian citizens is such a risk to Putin that most certainly a part of their loss will be their inability to accept the risk, yet the risk of enraging Ukraine and Ukrainians which will directly match the fury to resist, means a lot less. Like a lot. 

I’ll be clear in stating I don’t think you’re arguing against what I’m asserting rn, but I am saying terror in service of genocide is more likely than terror in service of just violent organization. Tho just expressing that, makes little sense, as genocide is terror of the broadest sense….I guess what I’m saying is this violence is completely intended, approved and accepted and by extension, accepted.
I mean, the bestowing of honors to the unit involved in Bucha should attest as much. 

the destruction of medical and humanitarian facilities that were supposed to be protected under IHL in Syria, during a “respectable” seeking stance by Russia, before the crushing in the present times of dissent in Russia, should be more than enough to signify evidence that Russia is capable of genocide, with brutality such a hallmark of society as to expand beyond the mafia state and into the rest of society.

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I am unsure what your framing is referring to, but if I’m understanding you correctly, you are asserting Russian policy isn’t genocidial in the context of Ukrainians forced to settle in Russia? I don’t think you are asserting that, but definitely Russia has been realizing they are losing on the PR front involving their forced resettlement of Ukrainians and so policy is shifting to stop leaks...

I was simply saying that the degree of message coordination within the Russian government is sometimes better than the coordination of executing the message due to the chaotic criminal nature of the regime.  To over simplify it:

Putin - "Hey, senior leadership... it seems the West has figured out we are committing genocide.  Put a stop to the bad PR, but keep the genocide going".

Senior Leadership - "Understood!  OK, underlings you are instructed to stop information about our genocide against Ukraine from leaking out to the world".

Low level FSB thugs - "Message received.  We're now going to kill Ukrainian grandmothers looking for their grandkids."

Senior Leadership - "That's fine, but you were sloppy with the one you just killed and people found out about it.  The instructions were to stop people from knowing about this, not make it even more obvious.  We don't care that you killed a grandmother, but next time do a better job keeping it out of the news"

Low level FSB thugs - "OK, will do.  Next time we kill a Ukrainian grandmother we'll also kill anybody she spoke with.  That ought to do the trick".

The point of my commentary is that I doubt that killing Ukrainian relatives was an explicit mandate from up above, but it was done in support of the higher level directive to clamp down on bad PR resulting from genocide.  Some numbnuts in a local FSB office took it upon himself how to go about this and it led to the death of the grandmother (perhaps by accident).  Now the regime has another PR problem to deal with. 

Such is the result of a system of terror where so much power over life and death is delegated to the lowest, and probably least competent, levels of the security apparatus.  Contrast that with a democratic country where authority over life and death is strictly controlled (even though imperfectly) by laws and consequences for violating those laws.

Steve

[sburke]

On 5/26/2023 at 8:50 PM, billbindc said:

What are the stakes? A good six pack of hazy IPA work? Because it's at worst a 70/30 that a deal is made.

you win

Biden and McCarthy agree to raise the US debt ceiling (yahoo.com)

[MSBoxer]

US debt ceiling agreement reached, not final yet as the agreement needs to be converted to legislation but the GOP and Biden have a framework.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/live-blog/debt-ceiling-live-updates-rcna86529

Edit - Dammit sburke beat me by a few minutes.

Edited May 28, 2023 by MSBoxer

[MikeyD]

A 'certain political party' threatens to send the US into default for spite about as regularly as Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons... for spite.

Edited May 28, 2023 by MikeyD

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I was simply saying that the degree of message coordination within the Russian government is sometimes better than the coordination of executing the message due to the chaotic criminal nature of the regime.  To over simplify it:

Putin - "Hey, senior leadership... it seems the West has figured out we are committing genocide.  Put a stop to the bad PR, but keep the genocide going".

Senior Leadership - "Understood!  OK, underlings you are instructed to stop information about our genocide against Ukraine from leaking out to the world".

Low level FSB thugs - "Message received.  We're now going to kill Ukrainian grandmothers looking for their grandkids."

Senior Leadership - "That's fine, but you were sloppy with the one you just killed and people found out about it.  The instructions were to stop people from knowing about this, not make it even more obvious.  We don't care that you killed a grandmother, but next time do a better job keeping it out of the news"

Low level FSB thugs - "OK, will do.  Next time we kill a Ukrainian grandmother we'll also kill anybody she spoke with.  That ought to do the trick".

The point of my commentary is that I doubt that killing Ukrainian relatives was an explicit mandate from up above, but it was done in support of the higher level directive to clamp down on bad PR resulting from genocide.  Some numbnuts in a local FSB office took it upon himself how to go about this and it led to the death of the grandmother (perhaps by accident).  Now the regime has another PR problem to deal with. 

Such is the result of a system of terror where so much power over life and death is delegated to the lowest, and probably least competent, levels of the security apparatus.  Contrast that with a democratic country where authority over life and death is strictly controlled (even though imperfectly) by laws and consequences for violating those laws.

Steve

Makes sense to me.

 

[sburke]

Hackers Force Putin’s Holy Man to ‘Bless’ Ukraine’s Counteroffensive (yahoo.com)

Quote

 

Russians visiting an official website of the Russian Orthodox Church this weekend were greeted with what must have been a jarring message: Vladimir Putin’s top holy man, Patriarch Kirill, cheering on Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

The main page of the official website for Patriarch Kirill’s residence in Peredelkino near Moscow was hacked to show a message to visitors that read, “Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia blesses the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counter-offensive.”

A video of Ukrainian troops preparing to “take back what’s theirs” was still playing on the website as of Saturday night. The video, released by Ukraine’s Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces Valeriy Zaluzhny, was widely seen as heralding the start of a large-scale counteroffensive to take back territories currently under Russian occupation.

 

 

Ukraine definitely wins the world trolling competition.

[womble]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Ukraine definitely wins the world trolling competition.

And has a massive lead in the infowar, getting that video promulgated by an organ of the Russian state. Unfortunately, I think that the POV of the Russian populace has been so twisted that their "dismay" will be directed at the "insidious" Ukrainians for violating their precious Patriarch's website, rather than considering the implications of firstly its presence, and secondly the message it's sending.

Still it's a good propaganda hit on the Western side of the equation.

[Pete Wenman]