How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[zinz]

2 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

#2 is indeed the rub. The debris cloud from one satellite shot down isn't too bad. Every reasonable person tracking the amount of debris in low Earth orbit absolutely hates it whenever someone shoots down a satellite. But both the US and China have tested anti-satellite weapons in the past without causing Kessler syndrome. But what happens when you are shooting down dozens of satellites in a high intensity war with space as an actively contested domain? No one wants to let the enemy's satellites observe their movements unimpeded. But if you get too trigger happy with your anti-satellite weapons you could rapidly set off Kessler syndrome. And that's a bad day for everyone.

Do you know about the Birthday paradox? With spaceX and other future satellite constellations the number of satellites in orbit is already a magnitude higher than a couple of years ago. The current situation is much worse to consider a kinetic take down of satellites than a few years ago. 

The Chinese anti sattelite test in 2007 is still a big problem for all space activity. It knocked out another satellite. 1/3 of all debris pieces tracked to keep the ISS safe originated in this singular event. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

As discussed up thread, I was thinking the other day watching the Ukrainians trying to flush the RU men out of the Cyclops bunker they needed molotovs or something similar to set the thing of fire/smoke them out.

Tweet below has example of makeshift drone dropped incendiary grenades being used by another unit.  It's restricted so I'll just post a link.

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1658361918531272704

Sweet Jesus, "Kropla Beskidu" Polish mineral water. Drunk it yestarday. So yeah, some gives Patriots, others water, maionaisse bottles and pickles; it seems we are indeed providing Ukrainians with a lot of stuff to pin up to their drones and drop at muscovites. Let only Soloviov see this,  Ukrainians will drag us into this war cause of this stuff one day, mark my words.

[Fenris]

20 minutes of  footage from recent advance around Bahkmut - reporting, interviews and some go-pro (no sub's unfortunately). Most of the go-pro starts around the 11min mark.  Looks like a dismounted UKR vehicle crew falling back at around 13:30?  RU POW at 16min.

Quote

The armed forces of Ukraine broke through the defense line of the Russian army near Bakhmut in the course of counterattacks. Therefore, the Ukrainian military managed to take control of the territory at a depth of 200 meters to 2 kilometers. In an exclusive report, RFE/RL shows how the assault took place, what a Russian soldier who was captured by the Armed Forces said. Correspondents Maryan Kushnir and Serhii Nuzhnenko not only attached chest cameras to the assault units, but were also with him at the moment when these actions were ongoing. How the Armed Forces stormed Russian troops and leveled the line near Bakhmut

 

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by Fenris

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's May 16th report focused on Bakhmut up top, but reaffirmed what we already know about the Russian strike on Kyiv.

The Bakhmut report can be summed up as Russia isn't going to give it up and are withdrawing VDV and other units from other sectors to try and resist Ukraine's counter attacks.  ISW points out that this is contradictory to the efforts to prepare for the main Ukrainian counter offensive, which isn't surprising to us.  Ukraine has claimed recapturing 20km2 around and a little in Bakhmut, but Wagner forces in Bakhmut itself are still making marginal gains.

My take on this is it's more Russian chaotic and competing interests coupled with obvious need to not lose Bakhmut.  If Ukraine's objective of these counter attacks is to draw in Russian resources away from other sectors of front... mission accomplished already!

The other interesting bit is there is a draft law pending further debate/vote in the Duma that would remove the requirement for the FSB to secure a search warrant.  Across the board and officially.  This would allow FSB to search/raid any place they want for any reason they want, which is really useful if the population starts doing something about this fiasco.  With this the FSB becomes KGB 2.0.  Not just mostly, but totally.

And apparently Russia's international hit squad is on another poisoning spree in Europe.  Some we've noted here, but there seems to be others not mentioned yet:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/suspected-poisoning-of-american-kremlin-critics-spark-fear-of-russian-hit-squad?via=ios

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

A few days ago I linked to a video showing how many grenades/bombs it took to knock out some AT ammo, very little of it resulted in pyrotechnics.  This one, by contrast, was set off by a single grenade/bomb (you can see the second one getting lost in the smoke)

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2023

United Russia Secretary Andrey Turchak announced on May 16 that the "special military operation” working group developed 20 regional support measures for participants in the war and their families including priority enrollment of children in after-school education, exemption from kindergarten feels, and transport tax benefits.[68]

 

Best typo ever!

[Battlefront.com]

Yet another report on Russia playing games with death and wound benefits.  Sheesh... give them their blender and flowers and be done with it! They are also falsifying medical reports to send wounded men back to the front who either need more recuperation time or should be discharged from duty.

Steve

[kevinkin]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yet another report on Russia playing games with death and wound benefits.  Sheesh... give them their blender and flowers and be done with it! They are also falsifying medical reports to send wounded men back to the front who either need more recuperation time or should be discharged from duty.

Would Russia and Ukraine be engaged in was/is called total war? I think Ukraine is. But Russia's approach is schizophrenic. Like digging your own grave with a teaspoon. It's as if Putin wants to punish the country knowing his *** is not on the line because he holds the codes and is China's lap dog. Every hand Putin plays is a loser. We have to find a way to get him to leave the table and then banish him from the casino. It's like dealing with a addict. I don't think there will be a report on Russian behavior that will surprise me now. There is a debate tactic. When your side has the topic won, you just let the other side ramble on desperately. Like I said, dig their own grave. If Ukraine can keep their losses at a bare minimum and still regain some ground, I think the west will continue or even increase support. When cornered, the west is betting on some sensible people taking those codes away. Perhaps they have well placed assets that give them the confidence to play this game step by increasing step. 

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Would Russia and Ukraine be engaged in was/is called total war? I think Ukraine is. But Russia's approach is schizophrenic. Like digging your own grave with a teaspoon.

This is the problem with an autocratic regime being very used to having its way with the people.  They do these things because they think they can get away with it.  And so far they have.  One of the comments to that Tweet put it perfectly:

 

The other examples we've seen of this is the large number of "appeal" videos made to Putin by the abused men at the front or their discarded loved ones at home.  They believe that Putin isn't aware of these things and if they ask nicely he might fix them.  It's a request, not a demand, to be treated like a Human Being. 

This is why whatever follows Putin's regime is unlikely to change things for the better (even if it tries).  It seems Russian culture has a long ways to go before it can stand up for itself.

Steve

[chrisl]

7 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Is anyone else getting a 404 error with Oryx?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

Yes!

 

The list of Ukrainian equipment losses is still up, with links to the Russian losses that go to the 404 page.

I haven't been checking the losses for a while - when did he split off the RU and UK losses onto separate pages?  The Russian list maybe got too long and his CMS doesn't support that much on a single page or something, so he's got to do some editing/splitting.

[MikeyD]

A Twitter message from Oryx

Quote

The Russian losses list is currently offline as Google has flagged it as spam (as they did before with the Ukrainian list).

 

[DesertFox]

LOL.. Killjoy...

 

 

[JonS]

9 hours ago, zinz said:

The Chinese anti sattelite test in 2007 is still a big problem for all space activity. It knocked out another satellite. 1/3 of all debris pieces tracked to keep the ISS safe originated in this singular event.

which creates an interesting opportunity for a country that has some space capability and finds itself in a hot war but losing the ISR battle: take out several satellites - it doesn't really matter whose or what they are - and then let physics do the heavy lifting for you. Yes, you'll piss off a lot of countries and make them show their teeth, but they're likely already offside with you anyway. Yes, you'll also likely lose your own space based ISR and comms, but remember you're already losing there, so the relative impact will be less for you than the other guy.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

A musical commentary on the claim that the Russians lost over 200 K dead.

[Huba]

WB Electronics, producer of Warmate, one of the best loitering munitions in UA disposal just announced that it managed to increase the production to 50 units/ week. Another (relatively small, but still...) nail in RU army coffin.

 

[Grigb]

On 5/15/2023 at 11:38 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Funny note... is saw a bunch of pro-Russian social media users on Twitter saying that it is Russia that is sucking in Ukrainian reserves and that it has ALREADY achieved it's mission of forestalling the counter offensive.  Pretty funny stuff.

It was created by Prig. Girkinites severely criticize him for squandering RU resources on the unimportant town. So Prig came up with the cause: sucking in and crushing UKR reserves.

 

On 5/15/2023 at 11:38 PM, Battlefront.com said:

That is for a sector with about 100km of frontage, according to intel on how Russia has divided up the front.

Breaking this down somewhat roughly, the estimates show 3 DLPR Regiments (I think some DPR are in this sector), 1 regular Russian Regiment, and the equivalent of 2 Russian regiments of "reserve battalions" (BARS?).  I'll leave out the PMCs for a sec.

This is roughly 8000 effective strength, or 80 men per KM.  That's not a lot, obviously.  Making matters worse is the 3 DLPR Regiments seem to be disinterested in fighting at the moment.  At least not rushing forward doing active counter attacks.  Which means Russia has maybe 4000 available in reality.  Given Russia's loss rates lately this could be gone in as little as 8 days.

Steve

I presume these are sacrifice troops (including Wagnerites). I believe the majority of RU regulars are well behind (behind the Seversky Donets River). There are speculations that the RU High Command intends to hold the front with as few men as possible, leaving the bulk of regular forces intact for a counter-attack once UKR penetration is foiled by massed artillery and air attacks (a lesson learned from the Izum debacle). This, I believe, is the origin of Prig's antics: he is upset that Wagnerites function have simply to be destroyed in order to preserve the rest of the RU army.

Obviously, UKR command is aware of RU plans. Instead of making a big breakthrough directly into the RU trap, UKR are undertaking several tactical assaults to wear RU frontline troops down and eventually trigger either the destruction of RU reserves or tactical disintegration of RU defenses. The RU command is currently in a pickle: either watch their front line crumble or commit and lose reserves.

And it appears that both are taking place. The RU command does send forces to fend off UKR assaults, but the front line is also trembling. There are rumors that the RU defense at Mariynka is also trembling.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

WB Electronics, producer of Warmate, one of the best loitering munitions in UA disposal just announced that it managed to increase the production to 50 units/ week. Another (relatively small, but still...) nail in RU army coffin.

 

No, it's not that small. The RU is suffering significant vehicle and support weapon (ATGM) shortages. The number of vehicles/weapons they use in combat at the same time is quite low. 50 Warmates every week can and will make a significant difference on at least one axis of UKR attack.

[The_MonkeyKing]

not fake news after all

[rocketman]

5 hours ago, chrisl said:

 

The list of Ukrainian equipment losses is still up, with links to the Russian losses that go to the 404 page.

I haven't been checking the losses for a while - when did he split off the RU and UK losses onto separate pages?  The Russian list maybe got too long and his CMS doesn't support that much on a single page or something, so he's got to do some editing/splitting.

The Russian Oryx page is back online for me now.

[BornGinger]

Quote

It is the reason, the very essence of our friendship. It is our honor and our faith. It is our solidarity with all the comrade volunteers of Europe and even from elsewhere who had the same flag, the same emblem, but, above all, the same ideals! We are able, and we are the only ones who can write “Europe” with a capital “E”. Our Europe, not theirs!

I don't know if there has ever been published a number of the amount of European volunteers, or volunteers from other countries, that are fighting for Ukraine but it seems they have been, or still are, quite many. It's also possible that some of those who went home will return when the promised offensive have started for real. Maybe new volunteers will sign up too so they can be a part of this moment.

With all the talking about "If we don't stop Russia now, we will have to fight the Russians when they later on decide to attack other countries in eastern or central Europe" the words quoted above seem to be the mindset that many of those "Defenders of a free Europe" are expressing when they decide to stop Russia's possible expansion into Europe.

From what I have read and watched about this conflict many Ukrainians have the same mindset and say that it's essential to help Ukraine and stop Russia there instead of giving them a victory that might make them feel invinsible.

As mentioned above "the same flag, the same emblem, but, above all, the same ideals" about a Europe with independent countries working together against a despotic state from the east is possibly what's at stake here according to some people in this thread and other know-it-all people.

 

Edited May 17, 2023 by BornGinger

[DesertFox]

PzH2000 PsyOps with Rammstein vibes:

 

 

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

which creates an interesting opportunity for a country that has some space capability and finds itself in a hot war but losing the ISR battle: take out several satellites - it doesn't really matter whose or what they are - and then let physics do the heavy lifting for you. Yes, you'll piss off a lot of countries and make them show their teeth, but they're likely already offside with you anyway. Yes, you'll also likely lose your own space based ISR and comms, but remember you're already losing there, so the relative impact will be less for you than the other guy.

One assumes this would be Day 1 of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan but then again, I've seen lunchbox sized satellites at NASA PR events so...

[quincy]

On 5/16/2023 at 8:47 AM, MikeyD said:

The black areas on PzH 2000 turret above appears to be anti-cluster munitions matting, sheets with long rubber spikes on it. I imagine a submunition hitting the soft mat would cushion the impact to the point where the fuse is not triggered. At least that's how I imagine how it works. 

@MikeyD Interesting assumption! Do you have any further reason to believe these are to counter submunitions? Could this not simply be a doormat to keep the interior clean?

[Huba]

I'd read it as "US contractors on the ground are fixing it". Great news nonetheless. 

 

[Thomm]

15 minutes ago, quincy said:

@MikeyD Interesting assumption! Do you have any further reason to believe these are to counter submunitions? Could this not simply be a doormat to keep the interior clean?

The spikes disrupt the formation of jets of molten metal for simple hollow charges similar to those found in cluster submunitions.