How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

An open window in his future to fall out of while having a heart attack?

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 

Why does this remind me of the Zimmermann Telegram? Or Rudolf Hess? Not a one-to-one correlation for sure.  And those happened years ago and can be evaluated. But something also bizarre that's happening in real time for us to chew over.  

Edited May 15, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Plus Kraze is right up to a point that large parts are still pro-Russian, so we shouldn't envision Belarussians only through lenses of volunteers and emigrees.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at with one of my previous posts.  The 2020 protests were, from my understanding, fundamentally about the poor state of Belarus' domestic affairs; economic, freedom of expression, corruption.  Russia's influence and hold over Belarus wasn't on the ballot, so to speak, it was all of these issues.  It wouldn't have mattered if Lukashenko cut off all ties with the Kremlin, they'd still want his ass out of office just like the voters wanted.

My thinking is that this fundamental displeasure with the regime is a uniting force between various segments of society.  I can easily picture a pro-Russian having a beer with an anti-Russian and them both agreeing that Lukashenko is bad for Belarus, even if they disagree about leaning east or west.  A sort of "the enemy of my enemy is my brother" bonding experience.

When Lukashenko is out of office I'm not sure the pro-Russian segment is going to be any happier with the continuation of the old regime.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

The Prigozhin story just keeps getting better: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

The most interesting thing about this is how desperate Prig was to pull off a "victory" in Bakhmut.  No matter if he was really going to give information to Ukraine or not is irrelevant in my mind.  The fact that he thought it was worth trying something so wild and unlikely to succeed means things must really be tough for Prigyboy.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

As we get closer to June I am seeing more indications that Ukraine is saving up for a massive strike campaign, aka Shock And Awe style.  Why?  Because we know Ukraine has a lot of strategic deep strike capabilities, now including Storm Shadow.  Yet we see a couple of strikes here and there, none of them particularly strategic in nature.  I'm thinking the strikes we are seeing are to a) test Russian defenses and b) keep the Russians guessing if a big campaign is headed its way (e.g. if there were no strikes in May they would come to this conclusion pretty quickly).

Steve

[Artkin]

With all these trenchlines manned by light infantry everywhere it reminds me of Prokhorovka. I hope Ukraine has attrited the Russians enough that they will succeed. I dont doubt that there are mines ALL over the front. It's going to be a tough, slow fight at least initially. I really havent seen much breaching equipment from either side during this war except the MICLICs. 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Artkin

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

As we get closer to June I am seeing more indications that Ukraine is saving up for a massive strike campaign, aka Shock And Awe style.  Why?  Because we know Ukraine has a lot of strategic deep strike capabilities, now including Storm Shadow.  Yet we see a couple of strikes here and there, none of them particularly strategic in nature.  I'm thinking the strikes we are seeing are to a) test Russian defenses and b) keep the Russians guessing if a big campaign is headed its way (e.g. if there were no strikes in May they would come to this conclusion pretty quickly).

Steve

I've been convinced for a while it's a campaign season not Wacht am Rhein.  UKR getting stronger every day while at the same time degrading RU.   And learning.  And demoralizing RU forces as the rumor mill works its magic.  Just the ~20km2 captured around Bakhmut has Prig and RU army at each others' throats.  Good sign for the future.

But at some point UKR has to take back a lot of land.  UKR surely hopes to do this via unhinging RU forces whenever & wherever possible as opposed to set piece battles.  Don't need to take a major city to cut supply lines coming from it, just need to cut the lines.  That will mean relatively deep penetrations at some point.

[Battlefront.com]

A good read about something that's fairly apparent to this group here... expensive AD vs. cheap mass produced drones isn't workable in a large scale war like this or a Taiwan scenario:

https://taurevanime.substack.com/p/lessons-of-the-ukraine-war-3

And another one by the same author about the importance of maintaining mass:

https://taurevanime.substack.com/p/lessons-from-the-ukraine-war

The only quibble I have with this is his starting numbers for the Russians and Ukrainians seem to be significantly off, however his basic point is still sound.  Which is Russia didn't have the infantry it needed to secure the objectives it set for itself.

Steve

[Artkin]

The guided FFAR kit was an excellent intermediate solution to this very large problem.

[Battlefront.com]

Earlier today I read a VERY long and detailed dive into a fraud fundraising scheme in the US (one that used to robocall me all the time) that raised about $90m and only shows it spent less than $1m on its mission.  The rest went through an elaborate scheme to a couple of guys' pockets.  They used a common charity scam as the heart of their scheme.

Not relevant to this thread, but the one I read a few hours after certainly is:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16832

Another scam charity to be aware of.  Though since it was based on crypto to start with, some of us already knew what we needed to know

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

In non military news, I have been hoping to see something like this:

https://censor.net/en/news/3414338/experimental_reconstruction_project_based_on_better_than_it_was_principle_is_starting_in_six_settlements

Ukraine is going to embark on an experimental rebuilding program to do PLANNED comprehensive reconstruction of destroyed towns.  This is a very good thing for Ukraine to be paying attention to.  Hodge-podge free market redevelopment is bound to produce an uneven, uncoordinated, and inefficient rebuilding effort to towns that have basically been wiped off the map.  It will likely repeat many of the development mistakes that led to the previous town's structure.

If Ukraine manages it rebuilding correctly it could see extreme rapid economic growth in 10-15 years' time, similar to how West Germany rebounded after being flattened during WW2. It would suck for Ukraine to miss one of the few silver linings to this whole horrible war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

New Terra video is up:

What is on here:

1.  an example of why even good camouflage attempts might not work.  If the enemy sees you while you are camouflaging something, it's effectively not camouflaged!

2.  mission objective is to harass known enemy positions between larger scale attacks by artillery.  Makes me think of Grant smacking random rounds into Vicksburg to make sure the Confederates couldn't get a good night's sleep or know when the Union was planning on pounding them in a deliberate way.  Worked then, works now.

3.  demonstration of how hard it is to cook off a large amount of ammo if it is outside and spread out.  Repeated drops of grenades and bombs took out only some AT-4 reloads and RPG-7 rockets with each direct hit.  As he said, probably many were in some way damaged, but it was worth making sure.

Steve

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 hours ago, chrisl said:

An open window in his future to fall out of while having a heart attack?

I doubt it. The Russians are still publicly claiming to believe the entire document leak was a NATO disinformation campaign. They'd rather keep a traitor in their ranks than admit they were wrong about that. 

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

New Terra video is up:

What is on here:

1.  an example of why even good camouflage attempts might not work.  If the enemy sees you while you are camouflaging something, it's effectively not camouflaged!

2.  mission objective is to harass known enemy positions between larger scale attacks by artillery.  Makes me think of Grant smacking random rounds into Vicksburg to make sure the Confederates couldn't get a good night's sleep or know when the Union was planning on pounding them in a deliberate way.  Worked then, works now.

3.  demonstration of how hard it is to cook off a large amount of ammo if it is outside and spread out.  Repeated drops of grenades and bombs took out only some AT-4 reloads and RPG-7 rockets with each direct hit.  As he said, probably many were in some way damaged, but it was worth making sure.

Steve

They are still doing most of this with improvised ammunition. I can see large improvements when purpose built munitions get deployed in quantity. In particular a round that dispersed dime to quarter sized hunks of thermite seems like it would be rather useful. Something more or less guaranteed to set a at least  couple of square meters on fire long enough to light off anything flammable.

[DesertFox]

Looks like they are after the command stuctures. Guess we will see a lot more the next days.

 

 

 

[DesertFox]

Nice

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

9 hours ago, DesertFox said:

As the old proverb goes: "All is fair in love and war". Getting your enemy drunk as a skunk isnt exactly against geneva convention, is it?

 

 

Haven't seen any video of drones carrying vodka bottles.

What actually happened was probably just that the Russian got drunk on his own supply. Then the rest of the story was added to make it into a meme.

 

[DesertFox]

Nice roundup on the recent events north and south of Bakhmut of 13th/14th may.

Frontline report: Ukraine eliminates Russian troops in forest near Bakhmut leaving Russian brigade without high command - Euromaidan Press

 

[Huba]

According to Anna Maria Dyner (one of the leading experts on BY in Poland), who quotes her own sources in Belarus, Lukashenka is suffering from myocarditis(inflammation of the hearth muscle) caused by an infection. He's not going to die (not soon anyway) but has to rest and it will take some time until he's back on his feet.

 

Edited May 15, 2023 by Huba

[DesertFox]

In February the Prime Minister announced the UK would develop a new training programme for Ukrainian pilots to support their efforts to build a new Ukrainian air force with NATO-standard, F16 jets.

This summer we will commence an elementary flying phase for cohorts of Ukrainian pilots to learn basic training. This will adapt the programme used by UK pilots to provide Ukrainians with piloting skills they can apply a different kind of aircraft. This training goes hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets – Ukraine’s fighter jets of choice.

PM welcomes President Zelenskyy to the UK ahead of anticipated Ukrainian military surge - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[JonS]

8 hours ago, Peregrine said:

descriptions of small unit tactics

That sounds like a variation of olde school sapping ... which makes some(?) sense given that the fighting around Bakhmut really does give off castle/siege vibes.

[Grigb]

Things are becoming hotter and hotter. I'm still struggling with time. But hopefully, it will improve shortly.

I believe you have seen the recent Prig video with the map. Based on what Prig stated, I decided to add a few notes to the map. Although it is Prig, it is really interesting, and I believe it will help you understand what is going on in the Bakhmut area.

It can be a little confusing and crammed at times, but if you examine each block carefully, it should be straightforward enough.

Number 1

Number 2

Number 3

Number 4

I have a few comments but due to lack of time I will post them later.

[BornGinger]

14 hours ago, dan/california said:

The Ukraine war happened because Lukashenko was in the process of getting kicked out by his own people...

That sounds like one of those conspiracy theories some individuals make up as a way to find an answer to why certain things has happened.

Are there any hard facts to prove that theory or did someone hear it from someone who had read it on a website?

[TheVulture]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Things are becoming hotter and hotter. I'm still struggling with time. But hopefully, it will improve shortly.

I believe you have seen the recent Prig video with the map. Based on what Prig stated, I decided to add a few notes to the map. Although it is Prig, it is really interesting, and I believe it will help you understand what is going on in the Bakhmut area.

Excellently informative overview of the Bakhmut situation - thanks Grigb

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

I doubt it. The Russians are still publicly claiming to believe the entire document leak was a NATO disinformation campaign. They'd rather keep a traitor in their ranks than admit they were wrong about that. 

Yup, highly likely thta at least officially that will be the line. We will need several days to know what people really will think, but for now Z-net does not seem to be thrilled by news. Perhaps because chief millbloggers are allied or respect Prigozin.