How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

40 minutes ago, kraze said:

Millions dead in concentration camps, as always.

Whenever I see or hear 'Ruski Mir' I visualise an open grave with a headstone reading just that ...

[Yet]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

All I know is this war will end with Russia's defeat.  When and exactly how is still up in the air.

Steve

If the RU army is destroyed, donbas liberated etc. but RU walks away with Crimea, they 'lost'. Is this a RU defeat in your terms?

When in 2060 we are looking back  the RU army and industry are restored, we trade again and looking back, they institutionalised Crimea being part of RU. 

on the long term; isnt this still a Russian win considering pre-2014?

1 battle to take (2014), 1 battle to institutionalise(now).

----

I believe Xi (and in lesser amount Putin) think in long timespans (something we partially de-learned possibly because our 4-year view democracies?). Because of this difference views on  shortterm wins and longterm wins, negotiations might be possible?

 

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/05/the-rpgs-we-have-now-are-russian/

Old guy call sign AMAROK (lone wolf) is still dodging fate in the woodlands SW of Kreminna.

Appears they see a lot of potential for a general counterattack, which actually in some ways has been going on, depending on how you define it. Our space is a bit crowded right now.

The Russians are dispersing better than in the past and are trying to get tricky with their attacks. Seems they have some better guys on the ground now.

Tanks in front, infantry mostly behind and at the rear flanks. If they had been forward, it would have been a dubious task at best....

The Russians would be more effective if they placed their artillery in more confusing, staggered fire locations, but from what we have seen, at least, they tend not to do that. They also tend to keep their logistics close, at least in this forest, which increases the effectiveness of our counterbattery fire.

[BletchleyGeek]

Apologies if posted already! I have finished reading this "sort of" AAR

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/01/anatomy-of-a-russian-army-village-assault/

I found it quite interesting, well-written and relevant to the recent "Russia's Way of War Sucks" sub-thread. The author seems to arrive at conclusions that diverge a bit from what I think is the sensible, prudent assumption that the Russian Army may be able to change some of its ways.

Yet, judging from the reports in Vuhledar I really wonder... We will see what follows now in Luhansk oblast, the RF army has been conducting what look like classic "reconnaissance in force" operations to prepare for a major offensive operation. Or maybe that was it... 

[Rokko]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/05/the-rpgs-we-have-now-are-russian/

Old guy call sign AMAROK (lone wolf) is still dodging fate in the woodlands SW of Kreminna.

Appears they see a lot of potential for a general counterattack, which actually in some ways has been going on, depending on how you define it. Our space is a bit crowded right now.

The Russians are dispersing better than in the past and are trying to get tricky with their attacks. Seems they have some better guys on the ground now.

Tanks in front, infantry mostly behind and at the rear flanks. If they had been forward, it would have been a dubious task at best....

The Russians would be more effective if they placed their artillery in more confusing, staggered fire locations, but from what we have seen, at least, they tend not to do that. They also tend to keep their logistics close, at least in this forest, which increases the effectiveness of our counterbattery fire.

Is this guy even legit? The 70-year old Vietnam vet jogging around Eastern Ukraine writing a blog in his spare time bit just raises every red flag there is for me.

[Hapless]

Well, Russian strategic decision making mysteries solved, I guess:

 

[kraze]

Duh, it's Hearts of Iron THREE where you command any kind of troops but I guess for russians anything but selecting a whole stack and clicking on an enemy is too American.

[The_MonkeyKing]

On 2/3/2023 at 12:48 PM, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

Seems like my Leo1 + M113 timeline is coming true. Thankfully these will be supplemented with Bradley/CV90/marder1 and Leo2/Chal2/Abrams.

and even more Leo1 from Germany (adding to the original 88 number so 187 in total from Germany):
Rheinmetall will transfer 88 vehicles, and another 99 will come from FFG

Add to this 20 from Denmark and 40ish from Belgium company total gets close to 250. There are even more available in the western countries.

in CMSF in very scientific experiments Leo1A5 vs T90 seem to be on bar with each other.
Both one-shot each others most of the time. T-90 has better survivability gets less shots off because worse spotting. Balances out.

 

Also even more M113 incoming from the Spain and UK.

[Zeleban]

The notorious incident of confrontation in Syria between Wagner and US Aviation. Or what happens when ground forces are left without air cover. Their plan was clear - the rapid advance and rapprochement with the allies of the Americans. In this case, the use of aviation would be excluded so as not to hit friendly troops. But the Wagnerites did not have time

[Maciej Zwolinski]

13 hours ago, danfrodo said:

The other two will be in range of some of the new missiles being sent.  That is a very very serious vulnerability from which UKR simply doesn't suffer.  It has solid internal supply lines that would be much more difficult to significantly interdict.

I am not sure that a railway line can effectively be interdicted just by long range missile fire. See example of Kherson: with the Antonovskiy bridge down, the Russian supply was conducted through the Nova Kahovka dam-bridge (holed once, but then filled in with stone and rubble which proved resistant to HIMARS) and ferries. Both the Nova Kahovka and ferries were in HIMARS range, yet they were not hit frequently enough to slow down the supply in a meaningful way. Russians still had enough food and ammunition to the last day. Judging by the reports, in this war a supply line is considered cut off (I heard the expression "under fire control" very often) when it is under direct fire, or at least under direct observation from artillery observers.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Could be the case, it is more or less when Vuhledar party started. However, I would expect them to dent Ukrainian defense with cheaper units, not wasting their semi-elites.

Can their not-elites attack at all? If you look at the map, the only units attacking are VDV and MPR, and Wagner. Perhaps spotting Russian offensive maneuvers is just that easy. It is wherever VDV/Marines fight.

The other thing is that AFAIK the terrain before Vuhledar is relatively more open. So they may think more mechanised assets are necessary to cross the no man's land instead of the newly mobilised units, which tend to be more leg  infantry 

By the way, I do not consider Wagner's prisoner army to be a "cheaper" unit. They are fairly unique, because a normal mobik unit would not submit to that kind of treatment and let itself to be quietly slaughtered, even with the extreme passivity and apathy of Russian mobilised. So this is not an ordinary Orc Boyz unit, more like a specialised "Snotling horde with Orc minderz" to give the player unique capabilities. It might have been a very  fortituous thing that they were exhausted in Soledar, since there are problems with finding replacements in prisons and this special capability hopefully will not be replaced for long/ever.

[Huba]

25 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I am not sure that a railway line can effectively be interdicted just by long range missile fire. See example of Kherson: with the Antonovskiy bridge down, the Russian supply was conducted through the Nova Kahovka dam-bridge (holed once, but then filled in with stone and rubble which proved resistant to HIMARS) and ferries. Both the Nova Kahovka and ferries were in HIMARS range, yet they were not hit frequently enough to slow down the supply in a meaningful way. Russians still had enough food and ammunition to the last day. Judging by the reports, in this war a supply line is considered cut off (I heard the expression "under fire control" very often) when it is under direct fire, or at least under direct observation from artillery observers.

I don't think there's much sense in interdicting rail traffic itself, it indeed might be very hard to do except when the train is being unloaded. But with weapons like GLSDB/ GMLRS it should be quite easy to damage any bridge/ overpass to a point where it cannot be crossed by a train. As a rule of thumb, these have to be in much much better shape than car infrastructure, as you can't just drive around a hole. Pontoon bridges for trains are also quite hard to build when compared to road ones. When you take a look at the rail map of Donbas, there are major bridges on every line leading in, except the Rostov - Donetsk line. And even this one uses a number of smaller overpasses, which when hit would put it out of commission for at least some time.

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Rokko said:

Is this guy even legit? The 70-year old Vietnam vet jogging around Eastern Ukraine writing a blog in his spare time bit just raises every red flag there is for me.

Yes, as someone who called BS on the Devils Guard series from the moment I read it at age 16, that was my initial response too.

But if you want to persuade us this is fake, could you please (request, not an instruction)) skim the entire series of posts, starting from about April (it's about an hour of interesting reading), and then give us your sense as to why you conclude this is all an elaborate fabrication, and why.

No, really, skepticism is OK and I am genuinely open to being persuaded this is a highly sophisticated fake.

But my own (biased, flawed) gut is telling me that this Tennessee Academy dipdunk war whore is quite real, and while I suspect he won't survive this war given the brutal calculus in the SoF actions he is describing, I would love to shake his hand if he does.

Edited February 7, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, we all know that I'm in the Russia Sucks At War™ camp and we've long since discussed that I put myself in there more-or-less before this war started.  I'm not a founding member, but I'm not one of the Johnny Come Lately types either.  I say this because what I'm about to posit might sound like it's coming from the heart and not from the head, but I do assure you I've put at least some thought into this!

As a follow up question to the Russia Sucks at War theory I am wondering what is the reason for Russia being able to push Ukrainians back in the Soledar/south of Bachmut direction despite ample evidence of their sucking at war  elsewhere. Superior number of men? Superior number of artillery? Better RUS equipment? Innovative Russian tactics? Greater tolerance for losses (effectvely, morale)? VDV finally remembering their training? Command mistakes on the Ukrainian side? Etc?

My guess would be that the Russians once again concentrated significantly more artillery than the UKR and stockpiled enough munitions to achieve fire dominance. In other words, I think they are repeating the same formula, which gave them the slow advances in Summer 2022. And for a time, Wagner's unorthodox tactics also worked (until they run out of slave soldiers). But they are just guesses, so far I have seen no theory of Russian (underwhelming so far, but still) victory. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

But with weapons like GLSDB/ GMLRS it should be quite easy to damage any bridge/ overpass to a point where it cannot be crossed by a train

Agreed, attacks on bridges make sense. You just have to keep hitting them as soon as they show signs of repair. This could work

[Beleg85]

New hit from here: Kadyrov probably finally studied map of continent and now calls Silesians to make independence referendum (Russia will offer help with organization ) and to rise up against Poland.  After they finish up with Ukraine, he wants to bring fight against stanism and nazism into PL, because "it sorely needs it". So it seems Silesians= Chechens of New Europe.

He grew terribly swollen, by the way.

Btw. talking seriously, Russian intelligence for a long time groomed varous minor separatists movements in Europe, without significant effects (minus Catalunia) apart from causing some temporary bad mood in those countries.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, BletchleyGeek said:

Apologies if posted already! I have finished reading this "sort of" AAR

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/01/anatomy-of-a-russian-army-village-assault/

I found it quite interesting, well-written and relevant to the recent "Russia's Way of War Sucks" sub-thread. The author seems to arrive at conclusions that diverge a bit from what I think is the sensible, prudent assumption that the Russian Army may be able to change some of its ways.

Yet, judging from the reports in Vuhledar I really wonder... We will see what follows now in Luhansk oblast, the RF army has been conducting what look like classic "reconnaissance in force" operations to prepare for a major offensive operation. Or maybe that was it... 

This article (as always…”if legit”) is loaded with hints and signals, and is based on pretty recent action by what we’re supposed to be the best troops the RA had left.  Main takeaway on a first pass:

Heavy attrition is having an effect on the RA - see BMDs

The RA is clearly not employing Mission Command - which is not a deal breaker IF you have a C4ISR architecture where one is set up for Detailed Command.

The RA’s C4ISR is largely obsolete for this war, and is rendering their mass disjointed and uncoordinated.

The combined arms being employed are straight out of Soviet doctrine, complete with echelons but nowhere near the mass require.

As suspected air power is absent and disconnected.

Artillery doctrine is straight out of WW2 - and I mean literally.  Rigid timetables and indiscriminate rigid fire plans.

So what?  Well based on this small vignette combined with a lot of corroborating observations the RA is a military trapped between two times.  It is built for modern warfare on paper, but is connected for 20th century warfare.  It does not have the levels of mass of the 20th century, nor does it have the C4ISR needed to make lower mass effective.

Their opponent is built almost the exact opposite.  The UA has far better alignment between mass, C4ISR and fires.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/02/05/the-rpgs-we-have-now-are-russian/

Old guy call sign AMAROK (lone wolf) is still dodging fate in the woodlands SW of Kreminna.

Appears they see a lot of potential for a general counterattack, which actually in some ways has been going on, depending on how you define it. Our space is a bit crowded right now.

The Russians are dispersing better than in the past and are trying to get tricky with their attacks. Seems they have some better guys on the ground now.

Tanks in front, infantry mostly behind and at the rear flanks. If they had been forward, it would have been a dubious task at best....

The Russians would be more effective if they placed their artillery in more confusing, staggered fire locations, but from what we have seen, at least, they tend not to do that. They also tend to keep their logistics close, at least in this forest, which increases the effectiveness of our counterbattery fire.

Have to say...the biggest indication to me that this is not on the up and up is the 70 year old guy doing isolated recon in Eastern Ukraine hearing for the first time of the balloon who suddenly has more knowledge of Chinese balloon capabilities and a likely reaction to an overflight than almost any professional natsec expert I know would have had 10 days ago.

Strains credibility and looks exactly like post facto commentary.  

 

[Kinophile]

 

I dunno, those don't look like shovels. The Lt probably got a bit mouthy and demanding. 

Anyway, one less "officer" to send men to pointless deaths and kill or maim yet more Ukrainians. Plus,  once Wagner sees the video they'll find those guys and execute them. A problem solving itself. 

Good riddance to the lot of em. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Kinophile

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 2/4/2023 at 3:46 PM, The_Capt said:

A manned high altitude SIGINT platform, moving at about 120 khp visible by amateurs with telescopes?  Considering the economic footprint China has, combined with cyber capability, I can think of about a hundred better ways to collect SIGINT data than whatever this is.  The biggest problem with the entire idea is the fact that we are all talking about it.   It is extremely high profile, on many levels, which is the exact opposite of what you want in a strategic ISR collection platform.

If this is a Chinese SIGINT platform, it is pretty much one of the worst way to go about it.

Hey if anyone wants to start covering their roofs with aluminum foil, go for it.  But just know the Chinese already had a lot of capability without going to all the trouble of a freakin balloon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaogan

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tongxin_Jishu_Shiyan

https://www.csis.org/analysis/china-ramping-its-electronic-warfare-and-communications-capabilities-near-south-china-sea

https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4453/1

And this does not even start to unpack their cyber capabilities.

https://www.cisa.gov/uscert/china

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberwarfare_by_China

Or their HUMINT capabilities:

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/2019-11/Chapter 2%2C Section 3 - China's Intelligence Services and Espionage Threats to the United States.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_intelligence_activity_abroad

But ya sure, "let's send a giant balloon that every bored yokel from Alaska to the Eastern seaboard can see and track across social media."

Technically balloon can quickly provide a critical information no other planform can offer. It can measure variations in gravity field, make ICBM more accurate (although the precise mapping of gravity field around the target area can only provide a very small amount of improvement on the accuracy overall.)  

 

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

 

I dunno, those don't look like shovels. The Lt probably got a bit mouthy and demanding. 

Anyway, one less "officer" to send men to pointless deaths and kill or maim yet more Ukrainians. Plus,  once Wagner sees the video they'll find those guys and execute them. A problem solving itself. 

God riddance to the lot of em. 

I find it difficult to see what's really going on here.

We have two videos. One showing four guys carrying another guy. The second video shows some guys (the same ones?) beating something... with something.

This is then made into a narrative about how Wagners are first rescuing their own officer, then beating him with shovels.

Could be that's the truth, who knows. Could also be two different situations.

Even if they hated their officer, would they really bother to drag him away under fire only to bludgeon him to death?

Edited February 7, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[Rokko]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yes, as someone who called BS on the Devils Guard series from the moment I read it at age 16, that was my initial response too.

But if you want to persuade us this is fake, could you please (request, not an instruction)) skim the entire series of posts, starting from about April (it's about an hour of interesting reading), and then give us your sense as to why you conclude this is all an elaborate fabrication, and why.

No, really, skepticism is OK and I am genuinely open to being persuaded this is a highly sophisticated fake.

But my own (biased, flawed) gut is telling me that this Tennessee Academy dipdunk war whore is quite real, and while I suspect he won't survive this war given the brutal calculus in the SoF actions he is describing, I would love to shake his hand if he does.

So I skimmed through a few more entries and my alarm bells just kept ringing even harder.

There are zero specifics except for a few names of vague localities in Vietnam and Ukraine, except for a bunch of random weapon statistics. There isn't even a single picture in the entire blog I've seen. Not that selfies in airsoft gear like with that other goofball would make it believable, but even a random picture of a burning tank you can't find through reverse image search would make me drastically more inclined to believe any of this.

Also, guy is not only a 70-year old Vietnam vet still involved in active combat with SOF, he also fought in Syria with the SDF. A Thrice divorced, Russian speaking, steak loving badass, shooting Russians and ISIS guys at close range with his AK, call sign "lone wolf", it all reads like very cliché Call of Duty fan fiction.

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Duh, it's Hearts of Iron THREE where you command any kind of troops but I guess for russians anything but selecting a whole stack and clicking on an enemy is too American.

This is objectively true. 

All the new PD games are 'streamlined' DLC filled garbage bags.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Kraft

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I find it difficult to see what's really going on here.

We have two videos. One showing four guys carrying another guy. The second video shows some guys (the same ones?) beating something... with something.

This is then made into a narrative about how Wagners are first rescuing their own officer, then beating him with shovels.

Could be that's the truth, who knows. Could also be two different situations.

Even if they hated their officer, would they really bother to drag him away under fire only to bludgeon him to death?

Seneka unit says they observed the full process.  This is a cut down,  but no real reason for them to make something up.  It could be a UKR soldier they've grabbed but then Seneka would say that,  to rouse anger. 

My money is on battle freaked zeks finally snapping on the man driving them forward. 

[chrisl]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

The notorious incident of confrontation in Syria between Wagner and US Aviation. Or what happens when ground forces are left without air cover. Their plan was clear - the rapid advance and rapprochement with the allies of the Americans. In this case, the use of aviation would be excluded so as not to hit friendly troops. But the Wagnerites did not have time

for convenient comparison, here's the NYT report on the same battle: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html

and the wikipedia summary: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

Massed precision + high quality C4ISR beats mass.