How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

16 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Welcome back!  Thanks for delurking and an informative post.  I think if one can understand how DC works, one can understand just about anything.  Hell, next time one of my vehicles has a problem I might email you

Steve

Phew...I'm off the hook.

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

The funniest thing in all of this is a fact that theoretically any armed and mercenary groups are strictly forbidden under Russian law. They officially keep monopoly of a state on violence as one of most precious prerogative. Meanwhile Wagner opens business-recruiting center, organize picnincs and visits kindergardens and school.

What also baffles me is just how hard Putin is tying things in knots to avoid mobilization.  We had all sorts of machinations - weird incentives and big payout contracts, prisoners, Wagner, Syrians-Chechens-and even freakin Afghans (?!), soft “partial mobilization”, and now more PMCs.

I honestly think Putin is more afraid of large scale mobilization than anyone else.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What also baffles me is just how hard Putin is tying things in knots to avoid mobilization.  We had all sorts of machinations - weird incentives and big payout contracts, prisoners, Wagner, Syrians-Chechens-and even freakin Afghans (?!), soft “partial mobilization”, and now more PMCs.

I honestly think Putin is more afraid of large scale mobilization than anyone else.

It's useful to compare the behavior we've seen from Putin in the recent past to his treatment of the mobilization issue. On Ukraine, assassinations in the West, radical interference into other nations politics he's been aggressive, risk taking and remorseless. On gutting Russian civil society and putting the oligarchs in their place he's behaved similarly. But on mobilization, he's essentially been dragged into each phase by events. And when he's done it, it was first covertly then one 'claimed' mobilization and then covertly again.

Clearly, this issue is different and I think the reasons are obvious. Economically, he cannot rob Peter to pay Paul. Nabiullina is probably the most capable person in the Russian government and she's become notably brooch-less. I am convinced that his Finance Minister is telling him that Russia simply won't be able to fight the war if he strips too many working age men out of the economy. Wagner, Gazprom, convicts, etc all look like Putin's attempts to solve that chicken and egg problem she's presented to him.

In addition, mobilization has obvious political implications. Putin knows Russian history. He knows that if he really goes for hard mobilization in the core areas of metropolitan Russian ethnicity and then doesn't win handily the spectre of 1917 will be lurking below the surface of Russian politics. I think it terrifies him.

[Battlefront.com]

This Gazprom announcement is huge, even if we don't know specifically why

Autocracies are not known for their adventures into parallel armed organizations that aren't 100% subject to the State.  The exceptions generally are the sort of quasi government troublemakers that act abroad on behalf of the State's interests without officially being part of the State.  This is what Wagner has been for Putin since its inception.  External troublemakers who could be shut down at any time.  This war has given Wagner way more power and influence than the regime ever intended and we just saw it retracting some of that influence in the past month. 

So why would Putin want to create a new potential headache for him at a time when he has so many other headaches to worry about?  I don't think he had a choice for one or more reasons.  Maybe Putin approached them for help, maybe Gazprom came up with the idea and "insisted".  Whatever the reason, this indicates weakness within Putin's regime.

Now, why would Gazprom want to extend into this realm?  Surely they already have private armed security for facilities and executives, therefore it doesn't appear this is a straight forward "protect the crown jewels" move.  To me it smells of something larger, and I bet there isn't just one reason.

Many of these Gazprom guys used the 1990s breakdown of law and order to become the powerful elites they are today.  Maybe they aren't so sure Putin will be able to keep it from happening to them and this PMC is designed to give them kinetic options in the event central authority breaks down.

In exchange for allowing Gazprom to do this I expect Putin wants something out of the deal, and the 30% stake in the PMC isn't it.  One possibility is that Gazprom hires people to perform security measures that the State currently provides, then Putin grabs all the Federal employees and shoves them off to the front.  Recent changes in Federal law allow Russia to do that, so it's not far fetched.  Doing it this way reduces the need for a public and random mobilization proportional to who he grabs from the pool of Federal workers. 

Why not just leave the federal workers alone and just recruit more volunteers?  Because the pool of people willing to do that is rapidly decreasing.  The pool of people willing to sign up for internal security jobs, on the other hand, is probably still quite large.  If you want 100,000 men for the front you hire 100,000 security guards pretty fast and easy, then draft 100,000 Federal workers whom you know everything about including where/when to round them up.  The population has shown a willingness to disregard such things because, well, they are already working for the government so what's the big deal?  It's not like they went and grabbed a guy off the street as he was trying to pick up his kid from school, right?

That's all I got on this, but I think we should collectively look for more information on this topic.  There's a lot to it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's useful to compare the behavior we've seen from Putin in the recent past to his treatment of the mobilization issue. On Ukraine, assassinations in the West, radical interference into other nations politics he's been aggressive, risk taking and remorseless. On gutting Russian civil society and putting the oligarchs in their place he's behaved similarly. But on mobilization, he's essentially been dragged into each phase by events. And when he's done it, it was first covertly then one 'claimed' mobilization and then covertly again.

Yup.  We've been saying this here, complemented by lots of others (ISW instantly comes to mind), pretty much since the war started.  Everything we've seen since, and I do mean everything, reinforces this premise.  Whatever this thing is with Gazprom, I'm sure a big part of it is to get more men for the front without having to go out and grab them from general society.

Whether it's for political reasons or practical economic ones or both... doesn't matter.  The sort of mobilzation that Russia needs to win this war by massed bodies is simply not there for the taking.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Phew...I'm off the hook.

No you are not.  I still have you on speed dial, but I haven't called you yet because my vehicles are all behaving themselves as of late

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report for today has added another piece of evidence that the winter offensive is officially underway:

Quote

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu held a press conference on the status of the war on February 7, likely in an attempt to posture the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) as an effective and involved leadership apparatus as the Russian military prepares for a renewed major offensive in Ukraine. Shoigu claimed that Russian forces are successfully developing operations near Bakhmut and Vuhledar and claimed that Russian troops have recently taken control of Soledar, Klishchiivka, Pidhorodne, Krasnopolivka, Blahodatne, and Mykolaivka in the Bakhmut area and Lobkove in Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] Shoigu likely held this press conference in order to create the guise of formality and legitimacy for the Russian MoD as it continues efforts to reform the Russian military, prepare for a renewed offensive, and set conditions for prolonged operations in Ukraine. ISW has previously noted that Russian officials are preparing for an imminent Russian offensive in Ukraine in the coming months, and that these preparations are also happening on the strategic level with Russian command structures.[2]

Shoigu does not come out into public very often, so when he does it has meaning.

I did get a chuckle out of the next section:

Quote

Russian military command may be rushing to launch a large-scale offensive operation to conquer Donetsk Oblast in an unrealistic timeframe and likely without sufficient combat power. 

Sometimes all ISW has to do is open up a report from earlier last year, use copy/paste, and bingo!  Commentary on current events without having to write anything new.

Seriously though, this is exactly what happened with their "Easter Offensive" (actually, has anybody seen an agreed to name for that foolishness?) very specifically.  BIg plans, not enough resources, no real knack for it, and eventual disaster.

Steve

[dan/california]

BTGs seem to be out of fashion at the Russian MOD, but they lost the equivalent of TWO of them today.

[Artkin]

44 minutes ago, dan/california said:

BTGs seem to be out of fashion at the Russian MOD, but they lost the equivalent of TWO of them today.

Two btgs = 14 tanks and 30 ifvs? Lol

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Two btgs = 14 tanks and 30 ifvs? Lol

At this point in the war I think that is an entirely defensible statement.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a topic that I don't think we've covered.

We're all pretty sure the Russians have launched at least the preliminary phase of their winter offensive.  Let's assume it goes on for a couple of weeks and yields no significant change in positions (I'm talking about multiple advances measured in KMs, not Ms) favoring Russia.  Let's also assume that Russia takes massively more losses than Ukraine.

As wrong headed and unrealistic as they might be, I can't think of any goal they've set for themselves that didn't make sense to me.  Therefore, the goals for this offensive are probably well grounded in needs of some sort or another. 

What happens when they don't get what they need out of this offensive?

Steve

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

This mostly proves that Wagner is a wholly owned subsidiary of the GRU. Although in the current state of extremis that does not prevent it from going rogue in any number of ways. 

There is a safe somewhere that justifies the pardons Prigohzin is handing out, too. But suspect various bits of the Russian state would rather shoot you than let you read it.

I wonder if those pardons will suddenly come into question a few months after what winds up passing for an armistice?

Gru is MoD intelligence. I highly doubt Prigster is subordinate /  pushed by Gerasimov. He's more closely aligned to FSB / Siloviki

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Artkin said:

Two btgs = 14 tanks and 30 ifvs? Lol

russians stopped using armor in offensives because they don't have a lot of it to waste at this point and it gets wasted quite fast.

They do meat waves.

[Aragorn2002]

12 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

• The current tank discussions going to wrong direction. This new equipment is not going to be in time for the next offensives but is going to give critical future security for UKR. They can afford to take losses now. Even the most perfect major offensive is going to cause losses of armored vehicles in the hundreds.

 

Unless Ukrainian tank crews are already (being) trained on the Leopard 1 and 2 (and Challenger)...

Edited February 8, 2023 by Aragorn2002

[DesertFox]

9 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Or the person who wrote it up made a mistake somewhere.

I don´t think so, because the tweet posted by the polish MoD reads the following translated with google translator:

Quote

 

Wielkie wzmocnienie polskiej artylerii coraz bliżej. Departament Stanu USA wyraził zgodę na sprzedaż Polsce prawie 500 wyrzutni Himars. Większość z nich będzie zamontowanych na polskich ciężarówkach. Zakupimy również zapas amunicji. Przystępujemy do negocjacji cenowych.

Google Translator:

The great reinforcement of the Polish artillery is getting closer. The US State Department has approved the sale of almost 500 Himars launchers to Poland. Most of them will be mounted on Polish trucks. We will also buy ammunition. We start price negotiations.

 

 

 

[Rokko]

 

Potentially noteworthy, 30th Mech apparently in action north of Bakhmut. Maybe it's old news but I've personally not seen this brigade mentioned in recent weeks, so it was possibly sent to reinforce this sector.

[Zeleban]

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Huba]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

I don´t think so, because the tweet posted by the polish MoD reads the following translated with google translator:

 

 

OK, so to clear the PL MLRS subject a little bit:
Up to now Polish Army only operates BM21 and RM-70 122mm MLRS. Some RM-70 are modernized to "Langusta" standard with digital automatic FCS, but there are still hand loaded and have a lot of obsolete features. MLRS are grouped in artillery regiments attached to divisions.
War in Ukraine resulted in our MoD embarking on an insane buying spree, which resulted in contract for the K239:
- 218 launchers were purchased, these will be mounted on Polish "Jelcz" trucks and equipped with PL comms and BMS
- 70 more are to be produced in PL under license (perhaps more in the future when manufacturing is all set up)
- contract included also more than 10K 239mm and 600mm missiles (roughly M31 and ATACMS unitary equivalents
This contract is valued at $3.55B. There are no more details available, our MoD absolutely sucks at communications and thinks it wise (or less problematic) to not give up more details on the future artillery force structures, details of what the contract entails regarding ammunition or any future shopping plans. There was talk about setting up production of K239 ammunition locally in PL, but MoD got silent about that recently too.

Now for HIMARS. Of course buying just a single type of a given category of equipment would be just too easy, and we don't like it that way. So on top of the K239 our MoD also want's American MLRS.
We purchased a single HIMARS battalion way before the war started ( 20 launchers and some insignificant amount of ammunition). On top of that our MoD sent a letter of request for more, which got approved yesterday and is the source of all of this commotion. It allows us to purchase:

-18 more HIMARS
- 488 launchers to be mounted on PL "Jelcz" trucks
- 500 pods (3000 rounds) of M30 missile
- 500 pods (3000 rounds) of M31 missile
- 500 pods (3000 rounds) of MLRS-ER missile
- 50 ATACMS Unitary missiles

Maximum price for all of this is $10B. Now this is are just maximum numbers that were approved and now negotiations for specific purchases will commence.

My comment on that is that this whole plan is insanely stupid and buying anything from this list (except maybe ammunition) absolutely doesn't make sense, for several reasons:
- absorbing the K239 will already be an enormous task is itself - manning, training, building facilities etc will be a huge undertaking
- the amount of ammunition in this LoR is absurdly low compared to number of launchers, it's just 3 reloads, what is the point of that?
- K239 can also reportedly fire US MLRS ammunition, so there's that...
- Korean ammo offers the same performance for much much smaller price (except the GMLRS-ER, Koreans just use 400mm missiles with similar range)

It doesn't help that our MoD is not disclosing any detail about the planned force structure, there are only some leaks. As far as one can tell, the division level artillery regiments are to be enlarged to brigades, probably with 2 MLRS battalions each. There are to be some corps/ commander in chief level missile brigades too, let's say 4 battalions each. This adds up to 20 battalions, typically with 18 launcher per, giving a required total number of 360 launchers. Which means that there won't be any huge HIMARS purchase as this is almost all covered by already purchased  290 K239. 
This is all speculation though, and our MoD might very well be just crazy and plans to buy it all for some reason, perhaps bloating the forces to even more insane levels. It's hard to tell, cause the ex-Soviet culture of extreme secrecy is still present in MoD/ Army...

Edit:
There might be one way for this insanity to make sense. At the moment the older RM-70 are to be pushed down to brigades and used as DPICM dispensers. If these were to be replaced by HIMARS there ( around 20 more battalions) and we were to buy up the whole remaining US M26 stock/ start production of similar rockets locally, this perhaps would (very arguably) make some sense. 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by Huba

[cyrano01]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is another devolution.  During WW1 state ran out of capacity as well and private regiments were stood up, funded by nobility and rich folk.  We still have the PPCLI to this day.

As to Russia’s current situation…what could possibly go wrong?

Indeed. I am pretty sure I have seen both The Marquis of Argyle's Royal Regiment and Monck's Regiment of Foot on duties around London at one point or another. These PMC's take a long time to get rid of...

[DesertFox]

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

OK, so to clear the PL MLRS subject a little bit:
Up to now Polish Army only operates BM21 and RM-70 122mm MLRS. Some RM-70 are modernized to "Langusta" standard with digital automatic FCS, but there are still hand loaded and have a lot of obsolete features. MLRS are grouped in artillery regiments attached to divisions.
War in Ukraine resulted in our MoD embarking on an insane buying spree, which resulted in contract for the K239:
- 218 launchers were purchased, these will be mounted on Polish "Jelcz" trucks and equipped with PL comms and BMS
- 70 more are to be produced in PL under license (perhaps more in the future when manufacturing is all set up)
- contract included also more than 10K 239mm and 600mm missiles (roughly M31 and ATACMS unitary equivalents
This contract is valued at $3.55B. There are no more details available, our MoD absolutely sucks at communications and thinks it wise (or less problematic) to not give up more details on the future artillery force structures, details of what the contract entails regarding ammunition or any future shopping plans. There was talk about setting up production of K239 ammunition locally in PL, but MoD got silent about that recently too.

Now for HIMARS. Of course buying just a single type of a given category of equipment would be just too easy, and we don't like it that way. So on top of the K239 our MoD also want's American MLRS.
We purchased a single HIMARS battalion way before the war started ( 20 launchers and some insignificant amount of ammunition). On top of that our MoD sent a letter of request for more, which got approved yesterday and is the source of all of this commotion. It allows us to purchase:

-18 more HIMARS
- 488 launchers to be mounted on PL "Jelcz" trucks
- 500 pods (3000 rounds) of M30 missile
- 500 pods (3000 rounds) of M31 missile
- 500 pods (3000 rounds) of MLRS-ER missile
- 50 ATACMS Unitary missiles

Maximum price for all of this is $10B. Now this is are just maximum numbers that were approved and now negotiations for specific purchases will commence.

My comment on that is that this whole plan is insanely stupid and buying anything from this list (except maybe ammunition) absolutely doesn't make sense, for several reasons:
- absorbing the K239 will already be an enormous task is itself - manning, training, building facilities etc will be a huge undertaking
- the amount of ammunition in this LoR is absurdly low compared to number of launchers, it's just 3 reloads, what is the point of that?
- K239 can also reportedly fire US MLRS ammunition, so there's that...
- Korean ammo offers the same performance for much much smaller price (except the GMLRS-ER, Koreans just use 400mm missiles with similar range)

It doesn't help that our MoD is not disclosing any detail about the planned force structure, there are only some leaks. As far as one can tell, the division level artillery regiments are to be enlarged to brigades, probably with 2 MLRS battalions each. There are to be some corps/ commander in chief level missile brigades too, let's say 4 battalions each. This adds up to 20 battalions, typically with 18 launcher per, giving a required total number of 360 launchers. Which means that there won't be any huge HIMARS purchase as this is almost all covered by already purchased  290 K239. 
This is all speculation though, and our MoD might very well be just crazy and plans to buy it all for some reason, perhaps bloating the forces to even more insane levels. It's hard to tell, cause the ex-Soviet culture of extreme secrecy is still present in MoD/ Army...

Edit:
There might be one way for this insanity to make sense. At the moment the older RM-70 are to be pushed down to brigades and used as DPICM dispensers. If these were to be replaced by HIMARS there ( around 20 more battalions) and we were to buy up the whole remaining US M26 stock/ start production of similar rockets locally, this perhaps would (very arguably) make some sense. 

 

Thanks for the elaboration. That gives the announcement of the MoD the necessary context. Lets wait and see in which timeframe this vast increase in launchers will take place. They need to be produced and that takes time.

[Zeleban]

 

[DesertFox]

Interview with german MoD in Ukraine:

BILD interview with the German Minister of Defense in Kyiv: Fear of a nuclear strike? | Politik | BILD.de

 

[Zeleban]

[DesertFox]