How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[_Morpheus_]

3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Our favorite Aussie PowerPoint presentation creator released his last video of the year.

Great video!
I just watched another one about ammunition shortage in Bundeswehr.

 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Most of their BMPs are BMP-2,

This was in 2014. But already after 2017-18 because of losses (combat and technical) ratio of BMP-1 (and imported Eastern European variants) became to grow. Now BMP-1 and analogs are majority in AFU.

[_Morpheus_]

Don't know if it was already posted or not. 'Kraken' and 92 OMB attacking Novoselivske in Luhansk region

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

This was in 2014. But already after 2017-18 because of losses (combat and technical) ratio of BMP-1 (and imported Eastern European variants) became to grow. Now BMP-1 and analogs are majority in AFU.

Heh... probably not the first time you've corrected me on this

Taking a quick look at Oryx, it looks like Ukraine has captured twice as many BMP-2 as BMP-1, which makes sense because the BMP-2 is (or was) the backbone of their mechanized infantry.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Kyiv this early morning was under Shakheds attack. 7 was launched, 2 were shot down on approach, 5 were shot down over the city. No damges of infrastructure, but several buldings got damages of windows because of explosions

 

Also this night UKR has struck with HIMARS on Luhansk oblast:

- Kadiivka (Stakhanov). Ammo dump hit. Detonations during several hours

- Brianka. Car service point with many boxes hit. Local say Russians and LPR held there many vahicles and ammunitions. Detonations during several hours

- Alchevsk. Buildings of student campus (former HQ and barracks of Soviet motor-rifle division) were hit

 

- "Victoria" hotel in Donetsk was hit

 

- school in Hirske, Luhansk oblast, turned to barracks was hit

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Russian TG sources issued info that because of missile or artillery strike on 27th Dec in Kherson oblast was killed and wounded almost all HQ of 37th motor-rifle brigade. Sources issued a list with 12 KIA and also as if 7 were wounded. Recently UKR sources wrote about this, but claimed this was command staff of 58th CAA. But brigade also not bad. 

Now the death of brigade commander is confirmed:

Colonel Marat Gadzibalayev, commander of 37th motor-rifle brigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district

I will track Necromancers posts about this. He wrote already three from list are confirmed. In the list from 12 persons - 7 are high-ranked officers

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke

Russian TG sources issued info that because of missile or artillery strike on 27th Dec in Kherson oblast was killed and wounded almost all HQ of 37th motor-rifle brigade. Sources issued a list with 12 KIA and also as if 7 were wounded. Recently UKR sources wrote about this, but claimed this was command staff of 58th CAA. But brigade also not bad. 

Now the death of brigade commander is confirmed:

Colonel Marat Gadzibalayev, commander of 37th motor-rifle brigade, 36th CAA, Eastern military district

I will track Necromancers posts about this. He wrote already three from list are confirmed. In the list from 12 persons - 7 are high-ranked officers

Bad luck for the command of this brigade. The previous commander was crushed by a tank of his own servicemen in the village Makarov, Kyiv region

[Kraft]

Crazy footage, I am amazed the ' drive in and unload' tactic worked that well. I'd be very afraid to meet an MG Gunner who is not looking to maintain his life.. I guess that is also a major issue to program for CM AI.

Also maybe a note for others, the video is nsfw, as there are unscensored facial bullet wounds shown and some blood.

Deepstate shows Novoselivske as contested still

1 hour ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Don't know if it was already posted or not. 'Kraken' and 92 OMB attacking Novoselivske in Luhansk region

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Kraft

[Calamine Waffles]

An interestingly marked T-72A/M1
 

 

[poesel]

3 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Apparently you did not have to be inside the Soviet air defense systems. This is what I call "old". SAM Simulator. 

 

I recommend to those who wish to understand the general principles of the operation of Soviet air defense systems. Available systems are: SA-75M Dvina (SA-2F Guideline) , S-75M3 Volhov (SA-2E Guideline), S-125M Neva (SA-3B Goa) , S-200VE Vega-E (SA-5B Gammon), 9K33M2 OSA-AK (SA-8B Gecko), ZSU-23-4V1 Shilka.

https://sites.google.com/site/samsimulator1972/home?pli=1

 

 

 

Yeah, 'old' is relative. But then the Gepards in Ukraine are the 1A2 models, which are 'digital'. I guess the original models looked more like in the video above.

 

 

 

[OldSarge]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

An interestingly marked T-72A/M1
 

 

Sorry, but that is just screaming for an 'Santa, I want a' image!

Edited December 31, 2022 by OldSarge

[MikeyD]

Germany got something of a bloody nose (by proxy) when all those videos of Turkish Leopard 2s getting smacked around in Syria appeared on the web. One has to wonder if their hesitation to provide tanks to Ukraine has something to do with them fearing to have Leopard 2 outed as a paper tiger.

[FancyCat]

Propaganda or smoke of fire? Either way, if true, no sign of backing down from Russia.

 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Propaganda or smoke of fire? Either way, if true, no sign of backing down from Russia.

 

as propaganda it backfires if false.  If true... well when they stop supporting the war then maybe russians won't have to deal with stuff like this.  Then again when your child's life isn't worth a new smart phone....

[dan/california]

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/russia-ukraine-war-drones-future-of-warfare/672241/

They read the thread...

[JonS]

1 hour ago, MikeyD said:

Germany got something of a bloody nose (by proxy) when all those videos of Turkish Leopard 2s getting smacked around in Syria appeared on the web. One has to wonder if their hesitation to provide tanks to Ukraine has something to do with them fearing to have Leopard 2 outed as a paper tiger.

You mean in the same way that the M1 was shown to be a worthless POS in Iraq? That would certainly explain why the DOD is so reluctant to supply them to Ukraine.

Edited December 31, 2022 by JonS

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

An interestingly marked T-72A/M1
 

 

Notice "Wolfsangel" Nazi rune.

[Splinty]

37 minutes ago, JonS said:

You mean in the same way that the M1 was shown to be a worthless POS in Iraq? That would certainly explain why the DOD is so reluctant to supply them to Ukraine.

? What made you draw that conclusion?

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Splinty said:

? What made you draw that conclusion?

Yeah, quite a big difference between Abrams handled by crews that ran away at the first sign of trouble and Leo2 crews that are supposedly NATO standard getting smacked by ATGMs.

Though it is clear that when a good tank is used improperly against someone who is able to kill it, well... the results aren't going to be good for the tank.  Just ask the Israelis.

Steve

[kevinkin]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/zelensky-signs-controversial-news-media-regulation/ar-AA15OwwQ

Anyone know the affiliations of those who sent the bill(s) to Zelensky? This could be much ado about nothing e.g. just wanting to avoid loose lips sinking ships for the time being. Journalists don't ever want any curbs on their bread and butter. So a push back is sort of natural. 

[JonS]

2 hours ago, Splinty said:

? What made you draw that conclusion?

If half-a-dozen lost Leos is enough to trigger a conspiracy cover-up to hide how terrible it is, then surely the dozens of Abrams lost in Iraq - by both the US and Iraqi forces - merits same.

Or ... maybe ... the original premise was horsepoo.

A mystery for the ages.

[kevinkin]

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/blackrock-plots-to-buy-ukraine/

A little fireworks for New Years:

It is all rather infuriating: one can almost guarantee BlackRock is getting paid handsomely by the Ukrainian government for advising on this reconstruction roadmap. And where is the Ukrainian government currently getting its funding, given its economy is in shambles and war is an expensive undertaking? The United States government, of course. By the end of the calendar year, the U.S. will have provided $13 billion in direct budgetary support for Ukraine’s government to avoid shortfalls and outright bankruptcy, and President Joe Biden has promised to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”

So, BlackRock gets paid by U.S. taxpayers via the Ukrainian government to devise a plan that ensures the success of their future investments in Ukraine, made from money gained by making American housing unaffordable. With a deal like that for our financial and political elite, why would they ever want peace?

The Ukraine Target 2030 Fund; coming to a 401k near you.  I wonder how many shares Putin will pony up for?

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by kevinkin

[Calamine Waffles]

13 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

With a deal like that for our financial and political elite, why would they ever want peace?

I'm pretty sure whatever consulting fees they are paying BlackRock are a tiny percentage of the aid they are getting.

It's not like the US forces them to buy consulting advice from BlackRock.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, JonS said:

If half-a-dozen lost Leos is enough to trigger a conspiracy cover-up to hide how terrible it is, then surely the dozens of Abrams lost in Iraq - by both the US and Iraqi forces - merits same.

Or ... maybe ... the original premise was horsepoo.

A mystery for the ages.

I agree there is ZERO evidence that Germany doesn't want to put its tanks into Ukraine fearing bad PR (though it is possible, of course), however I don't think it's right to compare the Turkey's loss of 10 Leo2s in a matter of months to the similar number lost over a decade plus in Iraq.  Especially when % of tanks deployed is taken into consideration.

That said, I also don't think it's fair to immediately fault the equipment.  Turkey has no relevant prior experience using armor in a high intensity conflict.  Bound to be a learning curve there.  And I'll once again cite Israel's incursion into Lebanon in 2006 as another example of what can happen when good tanks are put into bad situations.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

6 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/blackrock-plots-to-buy-ukraine/

A little fireworks for New Years:

It is all rather infuriating: one can almost guarantee BlackRock is getting paid handsomely by the Ukrainian government for advising on this reconstruction roadmap. And where is the Ukrainian government currently getting its funding, given its economy is in shambles and war is an expensive undertaking? The United States government, of course. By the end of the calendar year, the U.S. will have provided $13 billion in direct budgetary support for Ukraine’s government to avoid shortfalls and outright bankruptcy, and President Joe Biden has promised to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”

So, BlackRock gets paid by U.S. taxpayers via the Ukrainian government to devise a plan that ensures the success of their future investments in Ukraine, made from money gained by making American housing unaffordable. With a deal like that for our financial and political elite, why would they ever want peace?

The Ukraine Target 2030 Fund; coming to a 401k near you.  I wonder how many shares Putin will pony up for?

 

FWIW, National Review is fully pro-Ukraine. Buckley was always a firm Atlanticist and the neocons who run the shop there today are pretty much the same.

No idea why Buchanan isolationism has so completely taken over at TAC. They were never entirely in the tank for Trump, so I'd need to put it partly down to kneejerk Biden bashing.

****

As for outsized advisory fees and subsidies for rebuilding, it all really comes down to what we spent a page discussing above about Afghanistan.

1.  Unlike Russia, the Ukies are not sitting on any massive exportable resource besides grain, so the question is, how do they make money for themselves and for their investors as part of postwar Europe?  Since living well is the best revenge, always.

2. As I've said before, I personally believe in a maquiladora theory; Ukraine's role is to  become a manufacturing base for Europe, offering highly skilled labour at rates comparable to India or Vietnam which will  rise over time to Thai or Malay middle income status. Over time, the lower skill factories can start creeping into Russian oblasts (Chinese gonna be there already).

3.  So those subsidies that have the isolationists so riled up, will be really about (re)building the required supporting civil infra.  That's stuff BlackRock knows how to do (and yes, make crazy profits off). 

4. Notice the Chinese won't be able to undercut the EPC contractor market here although face it, there's a lot of essential OEM kit only they make in bulk.

5. That is FANTASTIC news for contractors, at least in countries who Did The Right Thing (gives sideye to the Germans and Koreans).  Good times to be a Scandinavian firm, for example.

6. Sure, a nice slice will vanish into the pockets of well-connected local subcontractors and 'law firms' (connected to politicians), that happens everywhere.  But unlike A'stan, it also won't stop the growth story from happening. 

6.  Only the threat of another Russian invasion will stop that which is why the Russian army must be defeated, and know it's defeated.

7.  The key marker for that - for all the risks that entails - is Russia losing Crimea and Sevastopol. They are forfeit in any case, owing to Russia's actions, although some foreign supervision could be allowed ("UNFUK") to safeguard civil rights (no ethnic cleansing). UKR could even consent to demilitarisation of Sebastopol (an easy sop).

FWIW