How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Indeed. 

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/31/on-the-way-back-we-ran-across-a-lot-of-dead-russians/

Ukrainian soldiers have also proven themselves to be very motivated and fast learners. The “too much time needed to train” excuse is just that, an excuse.

 

 

Hmm.  So either our group here is pretty perceptive about this war or Girkin is just repeating what we've already said many times

He's saying that Russia won't lose the war in Ukraine unless the homefront collapses, but the cumulative negative impact of the "incomprehensible war" may cause such a collapse.  Germany 1918, in other words.  The caveat I've always made is that, like Germany 1918, there will come a time where Russia will collapse at the front if the homefront doesn't collapse first. 

His other point about Russia's restive neighbors, in particular Kazakhstan, are also spot on.  Notice how he said that Kazakhstan poses no threat to Russia provided that Russia remains a "more or less a unified state".  But if Russia becomes internally destabilized, then all bets are off.  He might as well add Chechnya to the list and probably others as well.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

Happy new year Steve, and to the BFC team!

https://turcopolier.com/russia-running-out-of-troops-in-battle-for-bakhmut-battalions-split-up-isw/

Those squad-sized assault groups of 10 to 15 Russians are probably what’s left of platoons or companies.

 

[BlackMoria]

Happy New Year to everyone.   Here is hoping that 2023 is the year the the book gets closed on the Ukrainian war with a solid win for Ukraine and the book gets closed on Putin.  Keep the faith.

[Offshoot]

Some details on the tactics of Ukrainian tanks used for indirect fire

 

 

[Kinophile]

Happy New Year, Ukraine.

Keep kicking the **** out of the Ivan.

Kick 'em good.

[kevinkin]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11588115/Putin-rages-against-West-New-Year-message-people-Fatigued-dictator-appears-state-TV.html

But Putin, 70, looked strained and worn as he addressed Russians on television
His message was also tired, again claiming he was taking on Nazis in Ukraine

He coughed at several points, and appeared weary and aged in a message broadcast, as his missiles pounded in horrific attacks Ukraine even as people prepared to mark the new year

'We will win and go only forward for the sake of our families and Russia. For the sake of the future of our only and beloved homeland.'

All we needed was "I will always love you" and a fade to black to cap off that speech. 

Have a great 2023 everyone. 

[kevinkin]

20 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Some details on the tactics of Ukrainian tanks used for indirect fire

Thanks for the video. As light infantry become stressed almost to the limit, does that mean  small packages of armor will emerge (at least temporality) as the king and queen of the battlefield? 

[Battlefront.com]

Happy New Year from the East Coast of the US.  I hope that 2023 will be the last year we need to be here talking about the war as it is going on.  I want Ukraine's pending decisive victory to switch our conversation to discussing things in the past tense instead of the present and future.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11588115/Putin-rages-against-West-New-Year-message-people-Fatigued-dictator-appears-state-TV.html

But Putin, 70, looked strained and worn as he addressed Russians on television
His message was also tired, again claiming he was taking on Nazis in Ukraine

He coughed at several points, and appeared weary and aged in a message broadcast, as his missiles pounded in horrific attacks Ukraine even as people prepared to mark the new year

'We will win and go only forward for the sake of our families and Russia. For the sake of the future of our only and beloved homeland.'

All we needed was "I will always love you" and a fade to black to cap off that speech. 

Have a great 2023 everyone. 

It's more evidence that Putin's plan is to wear out Ukraine before Russia is worn out.  That's some plan there Vlad.

A bit of the speech was kinda funny in the context of the glorious victory speeches he gave before and for months after the war started.  That appears to be gone now and it's all about the struggle Russia has in front of it.  He so much as said that a strong and unified Russia is under serious threat from a dis-unified and weak Western alliance using the subhuman Ukrainians to weaken the glorious motherland (or is it fatherland these days?).  That's quite something, isn't it?

Personally, I didn't think he looked haggard and sick.  Yes, he coughed, but cripes... if coughing was a sign of dying, then I think most of us are dying at any given time!  His general demeanor is low energy so not much to make of that either.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Happy new year Steve, and to the BFC team!

https://turcopolier.com/russia-running-out-of-troops-in-battle-for-bakhmut-battalions-split-up-isw/

Those squad-sized assault groups of 10 to 15 Russians are probably what’s left of platoons or companies.

 

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/31/on-the-way-back-we-ran-across-a-lot-of-dead-russians/

[Kreminna woodlands area] A lot of Russians were also either moving or prepared to move. We did notice they are less static in the forested area, and are trying to keep their elements in positions where they can be mobile. It is a good tactic, and reduces their vulnerability to artillery.

I suspect it is also because they are concerned that we are making feinting moves to get them to commit reinforcements to a particular area. They are right.

Command always assumed they would try to break-up into smaller units and increase their mobility, and it was part of our job to influence where they went. It seems to have worked to some degree.

Once they do commit [we] make sure the support elements are located and can be hammered.

Digesting this piece some more, along with other snips and snails, like the Russian soldier overheard griping about his forward position being repeatedly shelled by friendly tanks positioned further back.

As we've discussed earlier, the Russians are becoming more of a 1940s infantry army, albeit with more modern comms. They have clearly (re)learned infantry screening and patrolling by this point. Their reflagging of mobiks as VDV (who always trained to fight this way) could be part of it too.

So as a counter, the UA is inducing the Russians to commit still more troops farther forward. This places yet more stress on their supply train and draws down their combat capable reserves for when the hammer blow(s) land.  Troops already up front are a lot slower to pull out of the line and shift hundreds of miles (btw, division scale redeployments is one operation Ukrainians and others have noted the Russians have been quite good at).

Edited January 1, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

On 12/29/2022 at 12:22 PM, The_MonkeyKing said:

Finland driving Europe wide initiative to get Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Idea is if everyone gives even 5-10% of their leo2 to Ukraine it would add up to hundreds. With some swapping you could also narrow it to only 1-2 variants of leo2.

 

A fine plan. Time to go the next level with arms deliveries to Ukraine.

[Haiduk]

Happy New Year for all!

This night instead fireworks we had bright light&acoustic performance "Shakheds attack". 32 drones attacked Kyiv. Projectors beams, flashes in the dark sky, thunders of explosions and flaming debrises. On background of this hundreds of shouts from the windows "Putin khuilo!", "Glory to Ukraine!" and national anthem singing. All 32 drones were shot down (NASAMS participated too), fragments of one slightly damaged one infrastructure object. Recently more 13 Shakheds were shot down in other regions of Ukraine

PS. During the day attack Russia launched at least 6-8 Iskanders. Most of them on Mykolaiv. But one or even two missiles reportedly were intercepted - one Iskander was shot down over Kyiv and probably one in Mykolaiv.   

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[poesel]

It seems I have lost my bet that the Russian Federation would dissolve by the end of the year. But obviously I meant the Chinese New Year. So Russia has another 3 weeks to fall apart.

Come on, you can do it!

[Splinty]

Happy New Year to all! Slava Ukraine!

[Zeleban]

Happy New Year everyone. I hope it will be better than the previous one for everyone.

[LongLeftFlank]

17 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Indeed. 

Girkin gave Kraken 2 thumbs up...

2. When Putin sends chef Prigozhin to light a fire under their arse, he does it...

3. The Russian world, episode _____:

 

[Zeleban]

New post from Mashovts. He declares that the manufacturer of Chinese quadrocopters DJI has provided the Russians with a means of combating their products.

 

At the front, the use of the "AeroScope" UAV detection complex by the enemy was recorded. The "AeroScope" complex is developed and manufactured by the Chinese company DJI for the detection of quadrocopter UAVs of the "Mavic" type.

It operates on the principle of decryption and analysis of radio communication protocols between the UAV and the control center. Thanks to this, the complex determines the location of the device; altitude, speed and direction of flight; place of launch; location of the operator; the model and serial number of the UAV and even the email address that was used to register the device.

The Chinese company DJI produces portable and stationary versions of the AeroScope complex, which is already used both in Russian army units and in the Roshvarda. And yes, you are not mistaken: one and the same Chinese office called DJI also produces UAVs, which are widely used by Ukrainian units, and at the same time, the means of effective combat against them is the "AeroScope" detection complex, which it actively supplies to the Russian army.

The first case of practical use of the complex by the enemy was recorded on October 28, later on one of the operational missions, he used it at least 3 more times. Moreover, in some cases it is quite effective.

Usually, the combat service of the complex includes 3 people - the commander, the operator of the complex and the driver of the vehicle on which the complex is based and moved. The intelligence information received by the combat service of the complex in the course of combat work is sent to the intelligence and fire control units of the Russian troops.

The time from the moment of determining suitable coordinates to the opening of fire by enemy artillery is about 10 minutes. After that, a short barrage of fire (up to 4–6 high-explosive 152-mm high-explosive projectiles) follows each detected target.

Of course, the use of this complex by the Russian troops is due to the significant advantage of the units of the armed forces of Ukraine in tactical awareness due to the massive use of UAVs of the Mavik quadrocopter type.

So they decided to "solve this problem" in the most radical way - they turned for appropriate help to the same manufacturer that produces the most mass-produced type of Ukrainian tactical UAV. Especially since the manufacturer is Chinese. But, to be fair, it should be said that DJI has officially stopped supplying these UAVs both to Russia and to Ukraine since April 26, 2022, precisely because of their military use. However, as we can see, the Chinese are never against the Russians "playing along a little".

Most likely, in the near future, the Russian command will try to significantly improve the use of these Chinese "toys" directly at the front. The combat services of this complex will probably be subordinated directly to the means of control, reconnaissance and adjustment of Russian artillery units (or, in fact, included in their composition). Which, in turn, will contribute to a significant reduction of "working time" (yes, the same 10 minutes).

In order of priority, it is necessary to determine the fire damage at the landing site of the Ukrainian UAVs, since the impact of fire on the take-off site is ineffective - after launching the device, the operator immediately moves to a safe place.

Also, most likely, the Russians will introduce their own UAV operator into the combat service of this complex, which will be designed to "intercept" the Ukrainian UAV. Because, apparently, the real situation in the areas of the hypothetical use of this complex will not always allow them to use exactly artillery or mortar means of destruction.

Therefore, I think that our commanders of the tactical level should pay special attention to the possibility of the enemy using in the zone of action of their subordinate units a sufficiently new and sufficiently effective means of countering our UAVs on the battlefield.

[dan/california]

 

[Zeleban]

someone was born under a lucky star

[FancyCat]

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

New post from Mashovts. He declares that the manufacturer of Chinese quadrocopters DJI has provided the Russians with a means of combating their products.

I respect Mashovets, but in this post he "discovered America". About Aeroscope usage was knowingly as far as in two years ago, maybe even earlier. Since this time all DJI drones, sending to frontline via volunteer charity funds have patched firmware, which shows to Aeroscope coordinated X 0, Y 0. Of course, if some unexperienced soldiers buy single Mavic without patching, they can be a victim of Aeroscope targeting.   

Edited January 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Perhaps worth to check this short clip of Vexler about meaning of Crimea for Russian imperial psyche. Nothing new for readers here, but very well put:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6CGbYQIVJs

 

And small sad bonus...for anybody thinking if my rant from around two weeks ago about Ukrainian Nationalism on the rise and complete ignorance about own genocidal past wasn't too sharp or pessimistic- here official account of Verhovna Rada from today...day of You Know Whom:

https://twitter.com/verkhovna_rada/status/1609544721101389831

They have no shame. "We are defending Western values...". Really, no words. Oh, and the quote is of course from Benjamin Franklin, not some ethnonationalistic butcher.

Just a worth to note this when thinking about future of the country we are cheering for already almost 2000 pages of this topic. Sorry for bringing this thing again, but sometimes one simply must. Let's proceed forward.

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

This is visit of Prigozyn to the morgue in Pervomaisk, Luhansk oblast. Day ago UKR HIMARS hit a hospital with wounded Wagner fighters. So pills of bodies in black bags are from this strike. Also the truck brought new bodies from frontline. Is this Geneva Convention violation? I think, no. Wagners are merceneries, so GC doesn't spread on them.

One more effective strike took place at 23:58 31st of Dec in Makiivka city, Donetsk oblast. Three HIMARSes or something more large completely ruined a building of former technical college #19, which was used as barracks since 2014. On eve in this building were deployed Russian mobilized soldiers, which just arrived to Makiivka. Also in the basement of college was an ammo dump. Result of explosion you can see on the photo. Locals write in the building was about 600 "mobiks" and most of them were killed in explosion. As if one survived told in hospital "it's will be good if from 600 survived 100". This episode already have big resonance among Russian milbloggers, though they don't issue number of dead. 

On the photo the college/barrack before and after

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[kevinkin]

To summarize .. There is reporting that a US provided HIMARS leveled a hospital containing wounded Wagners (who cares) and probably unwounded doctors and support personnel (perhaps a PR issue?)? Maybe it was not HIMARS. 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Is this Geneva Convention violation? I think, no. Wagners are merceneries, so GC doesn't spread on them.

 

The link below describes why the U.S disagrees with the exclusion of mercenaries from IHL.

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule108?country=us

Notably, IHL defines mercenary such that none of Wagner's personnel who are citizens or residents of Russia meet the definition of a mercenary. note the definition of mercenary here:

https://casebook.icrc.org/glossary/mercenaries

See here that the ICRC states that mercenaries are entitled to IHL protection same as belligerent combatants.

https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2022/10/06/third-country-nationals-international-armed-conflict

What was the violation of IHL? Hitting a Wagner hospital with HIMARS? Regardless of mercenaries or not, that is a violation. Tho, this protection stops once the hospital is used for:
"unless they are used to commit, outside their humanitarian duties, acts harmful to the enemy”. Examples of such acts include “the use of a hospital as a shelter for able-bodied combatants or fugitives, as an arms or ammunition store, as a military observation post, or as a centre for liaison with fighting troops”. These transgressions can lead to the withdrawal of protection."

From: http://international-review.icrc.org/articles/breaking-the-silence-advocacy-and-accountability-for-attacks-on-hospitals-in-armed-conflict-915