How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Splinty]

29 minutes ago, Huba said:

AFAIK Ukrainians report the number of killed, not overall casualties, though it is not very believable. The 100K number seems to come from gen. Milley, who said that "Russians suffered 100K casualties, and Ukrainians probably a similar number", or something like that. We'll know after the war I guess.

I suspect the ratio of wounded to dead is significantly lower in the RA. Their field medical services are crap, and what few medics they have probably treat senior grade officers and ignore the lower ranks. The UA OTOH have Western level medical care and treat all soldiers AND civilians.

[Kinophile]

Id say the ratio early on and for at least 4 months favoured RUS. No technology wizardry,  just sheer quantity of shells v. Soft humans. Russia had a massive numerical advantage in terms of guns,  overall, and after the tactical failures at Kyiv it was eventually able to bring that advantage into play. As I understand it UKR casualties rapidly climbed from day 1 but really spiked with the Donbass offensive.

Now the ratio is slipping/has slipped in Ukraines favour but there's still a long way to go before it's 2:1 for them. Many hopes are pinned on a combination of improved UKR fires and harsh environmental conditions to improve the ratio. 

But even then, unless there is a massive and front-wide anti-artillery campaign then the simple quantity of Russian barrels will always dampen down the ratio,  fires v. fires.  

We've tracked the degradation of Russian Operational sustainment but any let up in HIMARS suppression of artillery logistics will rapidly impact UKR loss rate. 

 

[kevinkin]

45 minutes ago, Huba said:

We'll know after the war I guess.

Yes, that's a tough one without any independent data. My concern has been the replacement rate for quality UA soldiers. But I firmly believe they will recapture all lost ground even with those concerns. Reading the reports, there seems to be increasing attention on Crimea. Maybe warmer weather and a bubble ready to burst. That sector is very sensitive re: grain and the proximity to more NATO members. If operations intensified around the Black Sea , perhaps NATO and the world would provide more support. On the other hand, the UA is known for distraction. 

[hcrof]

12 hours ago, Kinophile said:

RUSI higher level overview of the UKR and RUS performances in the war so far. 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

Jack Watling et al. 

Full Pdf here. 

I knew it was high,  but I thought maybe 75%.  So yah, Drones functionally = munitions. 

 

That really is a must-read, thanks. Too many interesting tidbits to pick anything specific - it needs to be read in its entirety.

[Bulletpoint]

52 minutes ago, hcrof said:

That really is a must-read, thanks. Too many interesting tidbits to pick anything specific - it needs to be read in its entirety.

"Ukraine blunted Russia’s attempt to seize Kyiv using massed fires from two artillery brigades."

How many guns would that be?

[Huba]

RU fortifications behind Bakhmut. Somehow these dragon teeth look much more serious in this context...

 

[Fenris]

Couple of pretty brutal clips illustrating accurate artillery flushing infantry out of their hiding places (can do without the music)

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

How many guns would that be?

Probably 50-80

[NamEndedAllen]

On 11/29/2022 at 6:41 AM, Seminole said:

Such funding will have plenty of Democrat votes, so the fringe GOP members are not really an issue for passage, just good for ratings as mentioned.  

Unfortunately, USA politics often don’t work that way. Especially now that the government is divided. This is germane to the forum because of the war, and because we haven’t had divided government during the invasion until now (January). Dems no longer control both Houses and the procedures. Again, the issue isn’t WHETHER OR NOT! It is HOW LONG will it now take, and with what strings, reductions, and demands (investigations, etc). The unknown is how much will get through the sausage grinding, and how much longer the grinding may take. We can *hope* that nothing will change! But at this point the Republicans can’t even decide who the Speaker of the House will be. So the careful observer will note that governing the House - legislating - is likely to be much more difficult than it has been.

 First, the House holds the purse strings. Bills must now go through the Republican controlled committee(s). They only get voted out when members have debated and amended them with pet changes and demands.  At a minimum this will take longer than prior. Then the issue of if and *when* a bill will come to a floor vote. Complicated frequently by the bizarrely irrational and destructive requirement by the new majority that bills must be able to pass *only* with their Party’s votes. If the Chair overrides this, he pays a price to the pro Putin fringe for “compromising with the enemy” (Democrats). Yep. That’s today’s USA politics.  If/when this or any bill passes the House, the Senate gets it and must either approve as written (as if!), or make their changes and demands. If the bill from the House is clean enough, the Senate will pass something roughly similar that must either go back to the House, and then the Senate (Pi g Pong), or go to “Conference”, where members try to alter each other’s versions to become one bill. And then THAT goes back to both Houses for a vote.

So again, we are not debating whether the USA will continue to fund provide Ukraine military and non military support. The unknown is how much, and how much longer might that take to pass. No one knows this, not even the majority leadership. 

[Kinophile]

Per CNN, sooooooo.... 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/30/politics/us-military-expanding-training-ukraine/index.html

2500 UKR a month, general training. Add to UK,  French et al and in 4-6 months ZSU could be looking at 5,000+ fresh, NATO trained input each month, onwards. 

Any RUS spring surge would step into the open arms of this opposing fresh influx on the UKR side. 

And something tells me the UKR troops will be orders of magnitude more effective than the 2nd, 3rd wave of Mobiks... 

Edited November 30, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

Thread / article on conduct of the 27th GSMRB during retreat from Izium:

 

[OldSarge]

20 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Per CNN, sooooooo.... 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/30/politics/us-military-expanding-training-ukraine/index.html

2500 UKR a month, general training. Add to UK,  French et al and in 4-6 months ZSU could be looking at 5,000+ fresh, NATO trained input each month, onwards. 

Any RUS spring surge would step into the open arms of this opposing fresh influx on the UKR side. 

And something tells me the UKR troops will be orders of magnitude more effective than the 2nd, 3rd wave of Mobiks... 

This time CNN is likely spot on. A couple of hundred pages back, I dropped in the link to an article that EUCOM was standing up a new command focused on training and equipping Ukrainian forces https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-army/2022/10/03/us-may-establish-new-command-in-germany-to-arm-ukraine-report/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dfn-rss-zap

Looks like they're ready to begin training.

 

Edited November 30, 2022 by OldSarge

[Huba]

1 hour ago, OldSarge said:

This time CNN is likely spot on. A couple of hundred pages back, I dropped in the link to an article that EUCOM was standing up a new command focused on training and equipping Ukrainian forces https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-army/2022/10/03/us-may-establish-new-command-in-germany-to-arm-ukraine-report/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dfn-rss-zap

Looks like they're ready to begin training.

 

Assuming that Ukrainians are able to by themselves train enough men to make up for losses of their already existing units, we are talking about maybe 1 new brigade joining the effort every month. Do you recall this open letter/ white paper from Zaluzhny? He wrote there that he needs about that many for the next year's campaigning season IIRC.

Now an obvious chance this situation creates is actually training Ukrainian soldiers on the NATO heavy equipment. Sending one full mech brigade to Ukraine each month would make so much more sense than more light infantry. Really, the time for these Leoopards/ M1s/ Marders/ Bradleys/ whatever is NOW or never...

Edit:

Also, it looks like US won't be short on money for all the materiel needed. As I understand, budget for the presidential drawdown authority is a separate matter, right? This increase would just nicely make up for any reductions in the stockpiles. In any case, money seems to not be a problem for the US military...

 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Huba

[Vanir Ausf B]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

"Ukraine blunted Russia’s attempt to seize Kyiv using massed fires from two artillery brigades."

How many guns would that be?

 

2 hours ago, JonS said:

Probably 50-80

They expand on these numbers in the report.

• Despite the prominence of anti-tank guided weapons in the public narrative, Ukraine blunted Russia’s attempt to seize Kyiv using massed fires from two artillery brigades. The difference in numbers between Russian and Ukrainian artillery was not as significant at the beginning of the conflict, with just over a 2:1 advantage: 2,433 barrel artillery systems against 1,176; and 3,547 multiple-launch rocket systems against 1,680. Ukraine maintained artillery parity for the first month and a half and then began to run low on munitions so that, by June, the AFRF had a 10:1 advantage in volume of fire. Evidently, no country in NATO, other than the US, has sufficient initial weapons stocks for warfighting or the industrial capacity to sustain large scale operations.

[OldSarge]

37 minutes ago, Huba said:

Assuming that Ukrainians are able to by themselves train enough men to make up for losses of their already existing units, we are talking about maybe 1 new brigade joining the effort every month. Do you recall this open letter/ white paper from Zaluzhny? He wrote there that he needs about that many for the next year's campaigning season IIRC.

Now an obvious chance this situation creates is actually training Ukrainian soldiers on the NATO heavy equipment. Sending one full mech brigade to Ukraine each month would make so much more sense than more light infantry.

They're certainly being quiet about this, I can't find anything in the usual locations. So going back to the CNN piece:
 

Quote

Under the new program, the US would begin training much larger groups of Ukrainian soldiers in more sophisticated battlefield tactics, including how to coordinate infantry maneuvers with artillery support – “much more intense and comprehensive” training than Ukraine has been receiving in Poland or the UK, according to one source briefed on the proposal.

They're talking about scaled up combined arms training, Grafenwoehr is the place for that. That leaves the unanswered question of what will they be training with? I guess we'll have to wait and watch as the winter progresses, word will get out sooner than later.

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

They're certainly being quiet about this, I can't find anything in the usual locations. So going back to the CNN piece:
 

They're talking about scaled up combined arms training, Grafenwoehr is the place for that. That leaves the unanswered question of what will they be training with? I guess we'll have to wait and watch as the winter progresses, word will get out sooner than later.

One can really hope that there's some grand strategy in the play here. Current Ukrainian army might have enough power for a limited winter campaign without exhausting itself I think. I hope that they will at least be able to take the hills on the Svatovo - Kreminna line to secure the front there. Hopefully also make a limited attack in the south - IMO a realistic aim would be to create a salient in the middle of the 'landbridge' near Polohy. It would put Mariupol, Berdyansk and most of the road along the coast in HIMARS range, and also created a great starting position for a push either west or east.

If they achieve both of these objectives, they should be really well set for offensive operations later in the spring, but for that new capabilities would come really handy - NATO equipped heavy brigades, aircraft with NATO PGMs, hopefully longer ranged ammunition for HIMARS. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Huba

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Thread / article on conduct of the 27th GSMRB during retreat from Izium:

 

What a Horrible story. And Just one of thousands. Plus General Scumbag is under arrest for 1) not paying off the right Big Wig,  2) The charges against him are based more in his military incompetence than his moral vacuum. 

Edited December 1, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, OldSarge said:

This time CNN is likely spot on. A couple of hundred pages back, I dropped in the link to an article that EUCOM was standing up a new command focused on training and equipping Ukrainian forces https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-army/2022/10/03/us-may-establish-new-command-in-germany-to-arm-ukraine-report/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=dfn-rss-zap

Looks like they're ready to begin training.

 

Yes you did,  good reminder! 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Truly, great read. But if this volunteer is indeed so old, what he is doing on the frontlines (or even close to it)?

Ya measly skunk! Ya didn't hit nuthin' but guts!

If you keep reading the blog, you understand why, and also believe that this is not a fake, unless it's an amazingly elaborate one. He's what an old buddy used to call 'a war whore'.

There's a couple guys in their 80s I drink with in Manila who could still punch me in the throat pretty hard if they had to: LRRP and SAS. Still randy too.

...UV is an outlier for 76 (especially with the smoking and drinking) in that he can still keep up with the younger grunts (more or less), has practical skilz and wisdom that keeps them alive, and is ok dying with his boots on.

A Tennessee mountain man.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

, we are talking about maybe 1 new brigade joining the effort every month.

I'm not sure about that? I mean, in terms of raw numbers, sure, but my understanding is that these folks are receiving individual trading, with a bit of section and platoon stuff necessarily in the mix. Turn a bunch of passably well trained individuals into an effective brigade requires a LOT of collective training, to get the staffs at various levels working in a coordinated and cohesive way. Also, in a bde of 5000 soldiers, probably less than half will be intry/rifleman. You also need sigs, medics, q blokes, drivers, NCOs, engineers, gunners, int geeks, ... and a couple of Padres.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

I'm not sure about that? I mean, in terms of raw numbers, sure, but my understanding is that these folks are receiving individual trading, with a bit of section and platoon stuff necessarily in the mix. Turn a bunch of passably well trained individuals into an effective brigade requires a LOT of collective training, to get the staffs at various levels working in a coordinated and cohesive way. Also, in a bde of 5000 soldiers, probably less than half will be intry/rifleman. You also need sigs, medics, q blokes, drivers, NCOs, engineers, gunners, int geeks, ... and a couple of Padres.

I should've said "brigade equivalent" perhaps, I meant this very broadly. It is interesting how are they going to manage all this newly generated forces, they have to forge them into larger formations at some point. No idea if this is to be done in Ukraine or abroad where they do the basic training - the latter would probably be more effective, though might be a no-no politically. 

[sburke]

Support for Putin's war in Russia has plunged, leaked poll reveals (msn.com)

[Kinophile]

Per ISW:

Quote

The Russian MoD appealed to the Russian public’s growing concern over Russian forces’ living conditions on the front in Ukraine, sharing a video of the supposed living quarters of mobilized soldiers on the front in which one mobilized servicemember proclaims that living on the front is just like civilian life: ”warm, nice, and cozy.”

Yes,  accurate description -  of the inside of a HIMARS fireball...

[sburke]

Russian officer ‘killed himself because he feared he’d be blamed for Ukraine errors’, widow claims (msn.com)

[NamEndedAllen]

I don’t suppose there is any chance of loading up and/or unloading sanctioned weapons during these bromance exchanges?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-chinese-bombers-land-at-each-others-airfields-after-joint-patrols