How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Bulletpoint]

I really don't understand how Russians will supposedly be able to pull back so many troops (20,000 men?) across the river when they are under constant pressure from Ukraine and the bridges are gone?

Isn't a fighting withdrawal one of the most difficult maneuvers to pull off, even when your army is still halfway decent and there's no river to cross?

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I really don't understand how Russians will supposedly be able to pull back so many troops (20,000 men?) across the river when they are under constant pressure from Ukraine and the bridges are gone?

Isn't a fighting withdrawal one of the most difficult maneuvers to pull off, even when your army is still halfway decent and there's no river to cross?

If you ask me they have been pulling back for a long while now.

Even the progress UKR made in north Kherson might be related to Russia having started to pull back.

Worst case for UKR is all we are now seeing are just rearguard unit actions. Those unlucky ones.

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This is a contest of wills between Russia and the western global order

If that is the case we can all sleep tonight since Russia has zero chance alone to set the "course our species will chart for the rest of the century" using their conventional forces. And if Russia goes nuclear there is nothing homo sapiens sapiens could do other than duck on a global scale anyway. But, we have mostly concluded using nukes is not in the cards for Russia. I guess that means we focus on conventional operations until the lights go out. 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I really don't understand how Russians will supposedly be able to pull back so many troops (20,000 men?) across the river when they are under constant pressure from Ukraine and the bridges are gone?

Isn't a fighting withdrawal one of the most difficult maneuvers to pull off, even when your army is still halfway decent and there's no river to cross?

 

Yep, that and an envelopment are near the top of the list, right next to assault obstacle crossing and amphib landings.  I would be very surprised if the RA pulled off a Gallipoli - if they did this is not very good news to be honest.  Now if they did a Dunkirk and just got a lot of men out without equipment the news is better.  I suspect that the position became untenable and the choice was stay for totally uncontrolled collapse or try and salvage something to reestablish a defensive line. 

[Bulletpoint]

I'm wondering how many of the big Ukraine gains recently have actually been UKR breakthroughs and how much has been them moving in as the Russians withdrew.

If the Russians are allowed to slip out of Kherson with very big losses in at least material, then it's not the operational masterpiece we have been led to believe. But let's see what actually happens.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, kevinkin said:

If that is the case we can all sleep tonight since Russia has zero chance alone to set the "course our species will chart for the rest of the century" using their conventional forces. And if Russia goes nuclear there is nothing homo sapiens sapiens could do other than duck on a global scale anyway. But, we have mostly concluded using nukes is not in the cards for Russia. I guess that means we focus on conventional operations until the lights go out. 

Well I would not say "zero", in reality the central contest of will is also within us in the west.  Do we want to win or let distractions pull us away?  Russian conventional forces aren't the problem, never were - the west keeping the eye on the ball is the central issue and always has been since the end of the Cold War.  We can get a grip on our crap and get back to stabilizing that order, or keep shouting at and over each other - or worse...change the channel.  

"A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within.” Durant et al.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

If the Russians are allowed to slip out of Kherson with very big losses in at least material, then it's not the operational masterpiece we have been led to believe. But let's see what actually happens.

I see what you're saying but looking at the big picture it's still a masterpiece.  A huge portion of UKR territory liberated without high cost to UKR.  A lot of RU losses along the way in men and especially material.  A lot of RU resources spent on a lost cause for many months.  A political humiliation for Putin.  UKR will be able to redeploy its fully equipped units elsewhere.  RU will have an unarmed, demoralized rabble to redeploy.  A huge victory via an opportunity created by interdiction of supply.

Catching all those men in kessel would be extra icing on the cake.  But it's still a huge and delicious cake.  

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm wondering how many of the big Ukraine gains recently have actually been UKR breakthroughs and how much has been them moving in as the Russians withdrew.

If the Russians are allowed to slip out of Kherson with very big losses in at least material, then it's not the operational masterpiece we have been led to believe. But let's see what actually happens.

So this is the same corrosive warfare we have seen since Phase I - it took about as twice as long, about 2 months vice 1 but the RA was much less stretched at Kherson.  People keep looking for traditional breakthroughs and breakouts but beyond the RA in the first week (and we know how that ended), we have mostly seen a steady erosion of the RA along its entire length - apply pressure - wait...2,3...and collapse.  It was controlled at the end of Phase I as the RA pulled out out the North, uncontrolled at Kharkiv and appears to be more controlled here.

It is the corrosive effect on the RA which is the masterpiece because it is eroding it to the point it cannot hold up under its own weight...or at least that is a working theory.  It is almost like an exhaustion strategy but sped up dramatically.  The only fly in the pie is that the RA may finally be (re) learning to pull out before full operational collapse.  If they really did pull off a Gallipoli style withdrawal, well that would be the worst case...we shall see.

[Bulletpoint]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I see what you're saying but looking at the big picture it's still a masterpiece.  A huge portion of UKR territory liberated without high cost to UKR.  A lot of RU losses along the way in men and especially material.  A lot of RU resources spent on a lost cause for many months.  A political humiliation for Putin.  UKR will be able to redeploy its fully equipped units elsewhere.  RU will have an unarmed, demoralized rabble to redeploy.  A huge victory via an opportunity created by interdiction of supply.

Catching all those men in kessel would be extra icing on the cake.  But it's still a huge and delicious cake.  

True, it's not a bad outcome all in all. But it would also mean the first sign of competence I've seen in the Russian Army since this conflict began, and I don't like that.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

True, it's not a bad outcome all in all. But it would also mean the first sign of competence I've seen in the Russian Army since this conflict began, and I don't like that.

yeah, if they actually get everyone & everything out it would show some tactical/operational competence in this one instance.  but trying to hold kherson for so long shows incredible strategic incompetence.  They collapsed at Kharkiv front because they sent everything west to support Kherson.  They made no impactful gains in Bahkmut front, once again they lacked strength, which was all in the west.  

I'll be surprised if this pullout goes smoothly for the mobiks, I think they'll get slaughtered as they bunch up at the beach.

[kraze]

"Actions speak louder than words. Ukraine sees no indication of Russia withdrawing from Kherson without a fight. A large ru-grouping is still inside the city, additional reserves are being pulled into the region. Ukraine liberates territories relying on reconnaissance data, not on staged television announcements."

Edited November 9, 2022 by kraze

[A Canadian Cat]

7 minutes ago, kraze said:

Ukraine liberates territories relying on reconnaissance data, not on staged television announcements.

Very wise.

I'm hoping the UA forces make some good progress regardless if its a real withdrawal or just a regrouping. Take the space given and crank up the pressure again.

[Billy Ringo]

nm

Edited November 9, 2022 by Billy Ringo
Deleted message

[Yet]

35 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm wondering how many of the big Ukraine gains recently have actually been UKR breakthroughs and how much has been them moving in as the Russians withdrew.

If the Russians are allowed to slip out of Kherson with very big losses in at least material, then it's not the operational masterpiece we have been led to believe. But let's see what actually happens.

what makes you think that RU values soldiers more than material? id assume that the military material, valuables, washingmachines and museumpieces are withdrawn and the (foot)soldiers not.

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, kraze said:

"Actions speak louder than words. Ukraine sees no indication of Russia withdrawing from Kherson without a fight. A large ru-grouping is still inside the city, additional reserves are being pulled into the region. Ukraine liberates territories relying on reconnaissance data, not on staged television announcements."

Assuming some RU units stay in the city they will be completely cut off.  As has been mentioned here many times, once RU crossing are in arty-tube range, nothing will cross.  Are RU units really gonna do suicide defense of nothing??

And left bank RU artillery will be in range of UKR artillery, so that support won't last long if UKR brings counter battery resources to bear.

Edited November 9, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, kraze said:

"Actions speak louder than words. Ukraine sees no indication of Russia withdrawing from Kherson without a fight. A large ru-grouping is still inside the city, additional reserves are being pulled into the region. Ukraine liberates territories relying on reconnaissance data, not on staged television announcements."

I presume that Russia is going to withdraw.  It really has no choice, because even a "last stand" won't work for very long even with their best troops.  Propaganda value of destroying a VDV or Marine unit in place would be bad news domestically.  Leaving a couple thousand mobiks alone isn't a good idea as they will surrender quickly and give Ukraine an even bigger propaganda victory. 

The bigger problem for Russia now is it said its withdrawing.  Imagine the propaganda problems Russia will have if it loses several thousand soldiers while "withdrawing".  Not good at all.

So yes. I think they will withdraw even though they haven't done so already.

I for one am interested to see how long it takes for their withdrawal to break down into chaos.  Because their river transportation capacity is not great.  Full barges with hundreds of men per barge?  Probably that's the plan.

They're going to leave a lot of stuff behind. that's for sure.

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I presume that Russia is going to withdraw.  It really has no choice, because even a "last stand" won't work for very long even with their best troops.  Propaganda value of destroying a VDV or Marine unit in place would be bad news domestically.  Leaving a couple thousand mobiks alone isn't a good idea as they will surrender quickly and give Ukraine an even bigger propaganda victory. 

The bigger problem for Russia now is it said its withdrawing.  Imagine the propaganda problems Russia will have if it loses several thousand soldiers while "withdrawing".  Not good at all.

So yes. I think they will withdraw even though they haven't done so already.

I for one am interested to see how long it takes for their withdrawal to break down into chaos.  Because their river transportation capacity is not great.  Full barges with hundreds of men per barge?  Probably that's the plan.

They're going to leave a lot of stuff behind. that's for sure.

Deserves a 'like'.  Just because Steve is agreeing w me 

[The_Capt]

So Russia just announced to the world it is pulling out, to the point that famously cautious mainstream news is reporting it.  They know that we can see Pvt Potato Head scratching his a$$ from space.  So what would be the possible use of lying at this point?  “Ah ha, we cleverly lured you into a trap on the wrong side of a river onto a city you were already advancing on”…?

Some sort of IO play on the population?  But to what end?  Russian has been deporting and oppressing all over the occupied territories but now it need some weird gambit to convince the local population of something?  

If ISR is still picking up RA on the scopes at this point it is just as likely a SNAFU on withdrawal than a clever ploy.  Unless someone can explain what the point of a setting up a fake withdrawal would be?

Edited November 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

On road at the moment, but gotta say I'm driving around smiling right now

Steve

Hey as the signs say here "buzzed driving is drunk driving".  oh wait you meant...

[kraze]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Propaganda value of destroying a VDV or Marine unit in place would be bad news domestically.  Leaving a couple thousand mobiks alone isn't a good idea as they will surrender quickly and give Ukraine an even bigger propaganda victory. 

The bigger problem for Russia now is it said its withdrawing.  Imagine the propaganda problems Russia will have if it loses several thousand soldiers while "withdrawing".  Not good at all.

So yes. I think they will withdraw even though they haven't done so already.

russians don't care about casualties, especially domestically, after all they already lose 700-800 men daily dead by throwing mobiks into the meatgrinder, hoping to solve it by making AFU run out of bullets or something.

them losing 1000 men in a day has zero effect on a desire to occupy Ukraine. But losing Kherson is a huge disaster because it's the only "achievement" they had during this whole year.

And it's why I don't believe they will just suddenly change their tactics to something completely different (and sane, because every other day they've been completely insane) and very not 'russian-like'. But what is 'russian-like' is lying.

What is more likely is them hoping AFU will just rush into a well prepared city via a certain salient and that's where the "trap" should close.

E.g. I would never believe what russians say until they DO it.

[FancyCat]

Maybe Russians are trying their version of Severodonetsk, if you recall, Russia attempted a push into the city head on and got bloodied for it.

End of the day, letting Russia leave Kherson quietly is the best thing, no Mariupol, no turning another one of Ukraine's cities into rubble.

Destroy the equipment. The men are useful to kill or maim but forcing them to fight in urban defense is not great vs retreating.

[FancyCat]

Are the bridges gone over the Dnipro or just unusable for vehicles? Big difference, if it's just vehicles, men can simply cross. Isn't the dam crossable still?

[Pete Wenman]

 

P

[Bulletpoint]

58 minutes ago, Yet said:

what makes you think that RU values soldiers more than material? id assume that the military material, valuables, washingmachines and museumpieces are withdrawn and the (foot)soldiers not.

I assume that without real bridges, it's difficult to withdraw heavy military material across a river. Not sure if they could have done it with the pontoon bridges they were using.

[kraze]

36 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Maybe Russians are trying their version of Severodonetsk, if you recall, Russia attempted a push into the city head on and got bloodied for it.

End of the day, letting Russia leave Kherson quietly is the best thing, no Mariupol, no turning another one of Ukraine's cities into rubble.

Destroy the equipment. The men are useful to kill or maim but forcing them to fight in urban defense is not great vs retreating.

Ugh - they will turn it into rubble should it slip out of their hands either way. They will be blasting it from the left bank with arty and planes until they level it, have no doubts about it. They did it to Mariupol because it was a symbol of their loss in 2014/2015 - Kherson will be a symbol of their loss in 2022 and they won't have it. That city isn't going to be left intact, no matter how it goes.

Edited November 9, 2022 by kraze