dan/california Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 3 hours ago, The_Capt said: This is pretty much where I am at for this war at least - manoeuvre is essentially dead (or perhaps dormant). We know western-style manoeuvre did not work last summer and likely will not under these conditions. Even if the RA could manage a breakout, modern ISR would pin it pretty quickly and those deep battle forces would effectively be surrounded by a bunch of PGM armed resistance. The UA is too connected and integrated in defence. And here is the thing, I am not so sure the UA would not risk suffering the same fate at this point if they managed to achieve breakout. The RA may have different emphasis but their ISR is still effective and they have PGM too. So we are really back to WW1 games here - attrition/exhaustion. This is really engineering systemic collapses on an opponent through longer term front end attrition or corrosive warfare in depth. Neither side is going to be able to pull off a "drive" anywhere until the other side suffers catastrophic internal failures. It is at least possible that Russia's entire plan for this year was based on the U.S. aid never passing. Now that it has, and Ukrainian gunners are back action at full volume, among other things, everything they are doing may be a panicked twitch to keep the Czar appeased for another week. The question remains, does anybody on the Russian side have the sense to go home, or are they keep going until something breaks, and takes the regime down with it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 (edited) 1 hour ago, dan/california said: The question remains, does anybody on the Russian side have the sense to go home, or are they keep going until something breaks, and takes the regime down with it. Today I saw a video of jollie russians below a tank, who taped their noses shut and had covid masks because they used the maggot filled, decomposing corpses of other russians to block the FPVs from flying into their meat fort, something I have seen countless times already. They were in a good mood and discussed further improvements to their little hole to make it fire resistant, in case a drone were to ignite the corpses. Edited May 23 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 (edited) 2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: What's the current state of the fighting on the east side of the basin? It looks like they might still be 10km from Martove. No fight there. Russians in 40 km from Martove. This is just not clear marking on the map, showing hypothetical further task of northern groupment of Russian troops after capturing of Vovchansk (btw in Eng. means "Wolvestown"). But they didn't capture it and didn't cross Vovcha river, dividing Vovchansk on two halves. Edited May 23 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 28 minutes ago, Haiduk said: No fight there. Russians in 40 km from Martove. This is just not clear marking on the map, showing hypothetical further task of northern groupment of Russian troops after capturing of Vovchansk (btw in Eng. means "Wolvestown"). But they didn't capture it and didn't cross Vovcha river, dividing Vovchansk on two halves. So they are maybe 100km from Kupyansk. Yeah, I don't see this working out for the Russians at all. 100km is a distance that nobody has done since the war started. Even the amazing Kharkiv counter offensive didn't do that much (in one direction, of course). Clearly this offensive has failed without achieving much of anything other than a quickly dashed hope and some relatively unimportant patches of ground. If we're going on my premise that this was a move of desperation to loosen up the front because Russia has some constraints on its usual bloody frontal assaults, the question then is... what next? Trying to launch another bite and hold in Sumy is going to be difficult to pull off because Russia doesn't seem to have the forces and Ukraine is likely able to defend the region. My guess is we'll see a continuation of small scale wasteful Russian attacks similar to what we've seen before. No one attack does much of anything other than cost Russia manpower, equipment, and resources. All the while Ukraine will continue it's campaign of destroying Russia's strategic assets. Not a great way to spend 2024, but it's better than some of the alternatives. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NamEndedAllen Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 6 hours ago, The_Capt said: They are willing to sell As long as the Spice flows! A variety of factors have allowed Russia to continue profiting from strong oil revenue, including lenient enforcement of the price cap. Russia’s development of an extensive “shadow” fleet of tankers has allowed it to largely circumvent that policy. That has allowed the Russian economy to be more resilient than expected, raising questions about the effectiveness of the coordinated sanctions campaign employed by the Group of 7. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/20/business/russia-oil-price-cap-policy.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 (edited) Reportedly Crimea under mass missile and drones attack again. Explosions in Alushta - locals say "anntenna" was demolished. Likely radar site or comm center was struck. Some sources say about some imporatnt FSB (?) object with large antenna of space communication. Since Soviet times there was a radar/AD unit on Castel mountain SW from the city. After occupation of Crimea, Russian press wrote, they will substitute one of two old former Soviet/UKR radars for newest Russian. Explosions also were heard in area of Perevalne - base of 126th coastal defense motor-rifle brigade and ammo dumps, Saky and Simferopol. No information yet about objectives of results Edited May 23 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe982 Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 2 hours ago, Kraft said: They were in a good mood and discussed further improvements to their little hole to make it fire resistant, in case a drone were to ignite the corpses. Hilarious! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 3 hours ago, Kraft said: Today I saw a video of jollie russians below a tank, who taped their noses shut and had covid masks because they used the maggot filled, decomposing corpses of other russians to block the FPVs from flying into their meat fort, something I have seen countless times already. They were in a good mood and discussed further improvements to their little hole to make it fire resistant, in case a drone were to ignite the corpses. How long before they die one or more of a laundry list of horribles diseases? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 (edited) Timing of the offensive makes sense in that this was probably the weakest that Ukraine would get. Artillery shortages were widely reported and the Russians could certainly count the volume of artillery fire coming their way. With the aid now freed up, it was probably now or never. Having Kharkiv under bombardment would be a setback for Ukraine and help fuel the doom narrative being fed into media channels. Interesting that we are seeing lots of activity in destroying air defence installations and airbases & aircraft. Now when were those F16s supposed to appear? Edited May 24 by chris talpas Added ‘sense’ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 (edited) The other axis member turns up the heat in their backyard: https://bbc.com/news/articles/cqvv29gpqn1o The west cannot continue their anemic ramp up of military arms manufacturing. Things are getting serious. Edited May 24 by chris talpas 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris talpas Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 (edited) 7 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: Wonderful segue to my post above asking when the f16s might begin to arrive. Edited May 24 by chris talpas Text did not appear 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Quote Russia’s ex-Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov knew about his impending arrest in advance and was heavily guarded, an FSB source told The Insider. The FSB had to improvise, arresting Ivanov during a hospital checkup and leading him out the back door. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Video with translation of online comments made by Chinese national serving with RU infantry. Nothing unusual or surprising, is interesting to hear his thoughts nonetheless. Usual caveat that I can't vouch for authenticity etc etc. Quote Li Jianwei is a former PLA soldier and a Chinese mercenary hired by Russia. He talks about his experiences in the Russia-Ukraine war on Chinese social media. In this video, he described the high causality of the Ukraine war and gave first-hand account of the Russian military operations and challenges. He called Putin's war in Ukraine "unwinnable" at the end. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 6 hours ago, chris talpas said: Wonderful segue to my post above asking when the f16s might begin to arrive. I am wondering if this is coordinated with the recent Ukrainian bout of strikes on RUS air defence assets. Focus on the enemy's AD makes great sense if you have, or are planning to have, enough air assets to switch to other targets soon enough. Otherwise exchanging your inventory of missiles and other air assets for the enemy's air defence seems not particularly helpful to the overall war effort. Like this old joke about soviet thieves who robbed a liquor store - the Militia caught them and they were being interrogated: "Where is the vodka?" We sold it!" "Where is the money?" "We spent it all on vodka" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pete Wenman Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Don't think this has been shared yet - the recent ATACMS strike on S-400 site 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fenris Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Sans all the added noise, that is very impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hcrof Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Interesting signalling coming from the Kremlin. I do think we are seeing early signs of Russia running out of steam but it will be a at least until the end of the year that the cracks become really evident IMO. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Hmmm. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-on-current-frontlines-reuters-sources-say-1.6899166 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 32 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Hmmm. https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/putin-wants-ukraine-ceasefire-on-current-frontlines-reuters-sources-say-1.6899166 Hmmm indeed. At first I was thinking perhaps this is a sign of weakness. But then I was more inclined to think that it is a spoiler, or more like attempting to control the narrative, for the upcoming peace talks that the Ukrainians are putting together. It could mean anything or nothing. Unless and until more evidence appears I'm in the 'don't read too much into it' camp. (Replying to @hcrof as well but I don't know how to multi-quote!) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Quote As news agencies are hyping the news that “Putin wants negotiations on the current front line”, please note this not any news. Really - if you search the phrase “признать реалии на земле” (recognize the realities on the ground), you will see it goes well back into 2023 in Kremlin statements and repeated nearly every month since. This is the phrase that #Russia uses when they refer to negotiations where #Ukraine is expected to recognize Russia’s territorial conquests. Please, do not blindly follow the media induced amnesia where any old news can be recycled into a “exclusive news” clickbait… https://mastodon.social/@kravietz@agora.echelon.pl/112495522037131982 Counter point that it is a new narrative. Well knowing how western media works with its hype cycles it's totally plausible that it's making the rounds right now because they want to report on something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 6 minutes ago, Eddy said: Hmmm indeed. At first I was thinking perhaps this is a sign of weakness. But then I was more inclined to think that it is a spoiler, or more like attempting to control the narrative, for the upcoming peace talks that the Ukrainians are putting together. It could mean anything or nothing. Unless and until more evidence appears I'm in the 'don't read too much into it' camp. (Replying to @hcrof as well but I don't know how to multi-quote!) Tough one to read. We know that the Russian government only lies when their lips are moving, but there have been some weird signals coming out of the war. This whole Kharkiv thing looks a lot less like shaping and more a weak punch while other areas are running out of gas. The RA can’t take the levels of punishment we have seen indefinitely. The lack of vehicles at Kharkiv and petering out quickly, increases in UA capability and strikes and all this general firing - maybe adds up to Putin needing a pause (and that is what it will be). Weird that it has gone mainstream so quickly. Normally there would be rumour and rumblings. Of course it will be all the other conditions layered on the thing that will tell the tale - Ukraine stays conveniently neutral, recognizing taken lands, normalizing Russian trade. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Update from Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the AFU: https://t.me/osirskiy/698 Quote I continue my work in parts of the Eastern Front. After the first minor successes in the course of offensive battles in Kharkiv Oblast, the enemy was completely bogged down in street battles for Vovchansk and suffered very high losses in the personnel of the assault units. Currently, the enemy is transferring reserves from various directions, trying to support active assault operations, but without success. In the Liptsi district, the enemy also suffered significant losses, switched to active defense, and carries out minesweeping and fire damage to the positions of our troops. In the Kupyansk direction, fighting continues in the forest area north of the city. The situation is difficult in the Kislivka area, where the enemy is trying to break through our defenses and reach the Oskil River. Intense fighting continues in the Ivanovo area and on the approaches to Chasovoy Yar. The enemy is trying to cling to the city at any cost, uses the latest T-90M, BMP-3, BMD-4, which are usually destroyed by our anti-tank weapons and FPV drones during the advance. The most intense and fierce battles continue in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. The enemy is trying to break through the defense of our troops on the narrow section of the front between the settlements of Staromykhailivka - Berdychi through offensive and assault actions of the most prepared units. Offensive actions take place both with the use of armored vehicles and on foot, often on motorcycles and buggies. There is also unrest in other directions, but the number and intensity of hostilities is much less. The key goal of my work is to study the situation on the spot, solve problematic issues, provide additional ammunition, drones, EW and other MTZ, reinforcement with reserves, etc. I would like to note the effective work of the majority of commanders and staffs in organizing combat operations, attacking the enemy with fire, and maintaining cooperation with neighboring units. Of course, there are problems that require quick and drastic solutions. As always, he recognized the best and presented awards to our soldiers - soldiers, sergeants and junior officers who bravely defend our positions and perform the main combat work. I believe in our Victory! Glory to Ukraine! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 This is an extremely stupid thing to do if you are trying to address American escalation concerns. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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